At the beginning of September, the overall trend of the domestic ABS market continued to be weak, with some grades experiencing a narrow decline in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 8th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10037.5 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -0.62% compared to early September.
Fundamental analysis
Supply level: Entering September, the load of the domestic ABS industry has remained stable with a slight decrease. Due to the poor profit situation of the aggregation plant, some enterprises have engaged in negative load reduction operations. However, the magnitude is relatively narrow, and at the same time, Tianjin Dagu has production capacity returning. The overall dynamic of domestic facilities is limited, and the industry load level has decreased from 71% at the end of August to 69%. The average weekly production has fallen back to the level of 135000 tons, and the inventory level of aggregation enterprises has risen to a high of 235000 tons, with sufficient supply maintained on site. Overall, the long-term loose supply pattern in the ABS market remains unchanged, and the high inventory levels in the industry are relatively controllable. However, there is no expected contraction in the supply side, therefore, the support for ABS spot prices on the supply side is weak.
Cost factor: In early September, the upstream three material market of ABS showed mixed ups and downs, which limited the support for ABS cost side. At the beginning of the month, the price of acrylonitrile rose, and the direct factor for the increase came from the supply side. Unplanned reductions have occurred in the East China region, with Zhejiang Petrochemical experiencing a load reduction due to a malfunction at the end of August and a planned maintenance of one unit for about 10 days in mid September; At the same time, Sinochem Quanzhou will start a line of parking in early August and may fully stop in mid September. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience a preference atmosphere of high cost, low inventory, and reduced supply in the short term. However, the above positive support is limited and variable, and coupled with insufficient follow-up of long-term demand, the improvement of market supply and demand relationship is still difficult to sustain.
The domestic butadiene market was affected by fluctuations in the downstream synthetic rubber futures market. In early September, the butadiene market first fell, then rose, and then fell back, maintaining an overall range oscillation trend. The operating situation of domestic butadiene plants within the range is relatively stable, with little overall change. Downstream enterprises are operating well, and the market fundamentals still have some support. Under the mentality of supply and demand game, it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to maintain a narrow range oscillation trend in the short term.
The current styrene market has strong expectations but weak reality. At the beginning of September, domestic spot prices fluctuated and fell mainly, with high production levels for enterprises and a decline in raw material pure benzene. However, if the maintenance plan of future enterprises is carried out on time, pure benzene ports will continue to reduce inventory, and downstream demand will increase, the supply and demand in the third quarter are expected to improve seasonally. In the short term, without significant macro changes, the styrene market may experience weak fluctuations.
On the demand side: In the medium to long term, the downstream factories of ABS have had average loads. The current market still exhibits significant off-season characteristics, with no signs of improvement in terminal enterprise procurement, and the logic remains to fulfill urgent orders. At the beginning of September, there was no increase in production in the electrical casing industry, and consumption remained quiet. The cautious atmosphere in the external market remains unchanged, and the flow of goods is slow. Domestic inventory levels remain high and sideways, with continued loose supply and ample room for on-site turnover. Overall, there has been no improvement in the demand side’s support for the ABS market.
Future forecast

At the beginning of September, the domestic ABS market was weakly consolidating. The overall rise and fall of the upstream three materials are mixed, and the production load of the ABS polymerization plant remains stable with a slight decrease, while the demand side remains at the same level during the off-season. Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the long-term drag on spot prices of ABS due to supply and demand contradictions makes it difficult for the market momentum to improve. Therefore, the current resistance to the rise of the ABS market is relatively high, and it may require some time and space for consolidation. It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption situation on the demand side.