Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone plunged sharply this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone was 9050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 8233 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a drop of 9.02% in the week. The price of cyclohexanone fell by 0.60% compared with the same period last month and 36.67% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: After the festival, the domestic market of cyclohexanone has fallen sharply. Because crude oil continued to fall during the holidays, falling by more than 5%, and during the holidays, the inventory of factories increased, the listed price of raw material pure benzene decreased by 150 yuan/ton, which depressed the mood in the field, the intention of replenishing warehouse at downstream terminal demand was low, more cautious wait-and-see was the main reason, and the volume of market-oriented fibre sheets and solvent sheets was small. Although Fangming plant has been shut down for overhaul, Luxi plant supplies to the outside world. Considering the resumption of Huafeng new plant in Chongqing next week, it pays attention to raw material cost and purchasing of chemical fibre sheets downstream. In terms of price, the mainstream offer of cyclohexanone market in North China and Shandong refers to 8200-8300 yuan/ton cash bulk water delivery, 8600-8700 yuan/ton cash delivery in East China and 8800-8900 yuan/ton cash delivery in South China.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, domestic pure benzene Market declined. Outside prices rose in an all-round way, while U.S. outward prices supported domestic selling prices. The price of crude oil kept rising because of the explosion and fire of the Iranian oil tanker. However, the downstream demand of domestic pure benzene market has improved too slowly and on-site trading is cautious. Downstream styrene futures market continued to decline, hydrobenzene market decline dragged down the purchase price of pure benzene. It is tentatively estimated that the short-term pure benzene market range is weak.

Caprolactam: Domestic caprolactam market continues to be weak, the focus of the market continues to explore, the current weak demand is difficult to change, the initiative of the polymerization plant is not good, the procurement of raw materials is cautious, the market is bullish, the overall turnover performance is light, in the short term, the caprolactam market is still weak, operation recommendations focus on terminal receipt mood changes and factory dynamics. East China Solid Market mainstream offer 12400-12800 yuan/ton near cash delivery. East China liquids market transactions in the vicinity of 12,200-12,400 yuan/ton, acceptance delivery.

Adipic acid: Domestic adipic acid market is weak, market activity is low, business mentality is different, downstream inquiry atmosphere is light, traders offer cautiously, small yield shipment, expected adipic acid Market narrow finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

For the enterprise side, Hualu Hengsheng has been overhauled and Huafeng’s new device is planned to be restored. We need to pay attention to the operation of the plant and the demand for chemical fibre sheets. Cyclohexanone analysts from business associations predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will fluctuate in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data from a large number of business associations, propylene (Shandong) market prices rebounded after a slight fall in early October. At the beginning of the month, the average price of enterprises was 7488 yuan/ton; on the 11th and 12th days, the average price of enterprises was the highest, 7504 yuan/ton, an increase of only 0.21%; on the 5th and 6th October, the lowest price was 7448 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 0.74%.

II. Analytical Review

Product: It is National Day holiday in early October. Due to the policy of limited production, the price of propylene maintained stable and occasionally declined during the holiday. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remain stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of enterprises rose. Today’s prices are stable. At present, the market turnover is around 7450-7650 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price is 7450 yuan/ton. Refinery stocks are slightly tight.

Industry chain: Upstream, due to the explosion of Iranian oil tanker, international crude oil has increased significantly, which has a certain lift effect on propylene. On the downstream side, a polypropylene powder factory in Shandong planned to stop at the weekend, which made the market more cautious.

PP spot price stabilized after falling 1.69% in early October, which had a slightly negative impact on propylene.

In early October, the domestic acrylic acid market also declined by about 3% and then stabilized, which has a certain suppressive effect on the price of propylene.

Propylene oxide showed a good trend in early October, up 4.19%, which could increase propylene price.

In early October, the price of epichlorohydrin has risen continuously, and now it has risen by nearly 9%, which is good for propylene market.

N-butanol declined by 3.47% in early October, which had a slightly negative effect on propylene.

Octanol declined to 4.8% in the first ten days of October, which suppressed the propylene market.

Isopropanol declined by about 2% in early October. The overall news is still short. The future market climate is not good, which is not helpful to propylene market.

In early October, phenol Market declined by 2.43%, or will continue to maintain this trend of shocks, lower propylene support effect is insufficient.

Acetone market declined 4.63% in early October, or continued to operate in a weak position, which was negative for propylene market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Propylene analysts at the Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that in general, propylene rebounded after a downturn in early October. The explosion of Iranian oil tanker made the upstream crude oil market go up obviously; there were occasional parking rumors downstream, and the purchase was stable. Therefore, propylene prices in Shandong are expected to remain stable in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the domestic isomeric xylene market showed a sharp pullback trend this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.4%, influenced by the oil price pullback.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Influenced by the weak economic indicators in Europe and the United States, the rapid recovery of Saudi crude oil production capacity and the recovery of oil prices, the isomeric xylene market is still showing a trend of recovery this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6400-6450 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume fell slightly from last week, and the port inventory remained low.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by the rapid recovery of Saudi oil production, this month’s oil price rebound, spot Brent fell 2.98%, Brent futures fell 3.44%, WTI futures fell 0.78%, Dubai futures fell 5.19%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX price trend is stable, short-term PX market prices are expected to maintain a stable trend. PTA market, this week’s price trend is stable, CFR China is about 650 U.S. dollars / ton, affected by the downstream demand is not strong, PTA is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend in the short term. In the ox market, the external quotation of FOB Rotterdam is about US $845 / ton. Influenced by the rise of upstream mixed xylene and the recovery of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizer Market, the opening of o-xylene continued to rise this week, and it is expected that the trend of o-xylene will be stable in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the Middle East situation, the progress of tariff imposition in Sino-US trade negotiations, and the European and American economies are worried about the expected fluctuation of demand for crude oil in the recession prospects. As concerns about recession in Europe and the United States intensify, the toluene market is expected to continue to shake and adjust next Tuesday.

Price Trend

After the National Day holiday, the domestic liquefied natural gas market began to improve. According to the data of business associations, the average price of liquefied natural gas on the 8th day was 2866.67 yuan/ton, the average price on the 10th day was 3050 yuan/ton, and the price of LNG rose by 6.4% in three days, which was 32.22% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: According to the data of business association, as of October 10, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Ordos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 3100 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia Etok Qianqi Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 3000 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Luyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 3150 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Guanghui LNG Development Co., Ltd. is about 2500 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Qinshui New Olympics in Shanxi is 3500 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Shaanxi Zhongyuan LNG Co., Ltd. is 3050 yuan/ton. The LNG price of Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. in Xinjiang is 3200 yuan/ton. The price of liquid has risen all over the country.

Market analysis: During the National Day period, due to traffic obstruction, LNG shipment is not smooth, after the holiday, road transportation resumed smoothly, downstream began to actively replenish goods, terminal demand increased, coupled with cooler weather, northern cities gradually entered the winter heating period, supporting LNG prices up. At present, downstream demand is rising, LNG suppliers are optimistic, liquid factories begin to actively push up, LNG prices continue to rise, three days to achieve “three consecutive rises”, an increase of 6.4%, the market as a whole has been pushing up. At present, there are still some factories with maintenance situation, boosting the liquefied natural gas market, active downstream purchasing, adjusting the price according to their own conditions, the market atmosphere has improved, some liquefied natural gas factories due to the low level in the early period and the expectation of heating season, price has increased strongly, the liquefied natural gas peak season is coming.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on October 9, 2019, among which the top three commodities are methanol (3.12%), dimethyl ether (3.04%) and liquefied natural gas (1.86%). There are six kinds of goods falling in the ring-to-ring ratio. The first three products falling are MTBE (-1.71%), gasoline (-0.27%) and diesel (-0.26%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.43%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Liquefied Natural Gas analysts believe that the overall market mentality is good, coupled with the upcoming heating, market demand has increased, there is no obvious short-term, is expected to rise steadily in the future.

On October 8, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 89.75, down 1.45 points from yesterday, down 36.09% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 67.48% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined, up to the present domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 9830 yuan/ton, domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%, enterprises reflect that the current on-site supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient, recent on-site hydrofluoric acid is not moving goods, due to the downstream demand is not improving, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers continue to reduce prices, hydrofluoric acid market prices are small. The amplitude declined. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9000-9500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 9000-10000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price maintains low level, spot supply is sufficient, but the demand situation is poor, the hydrofluoric acid market is low.

Upstream fluorite market prices remained low, up to 9 days fluorite price was 2866.67 yuan/ton, upstream raw material prices declined to a certain negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, hydrofluoric acid market prices were affected by the lower price of raw material fluorite at a low level. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, the downstream air conditioning manufacturers’overhaul, the demand has only decreased but not increased, and the price of domestic large enterprises has fallen to the level of 1200-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods, downstream demand is not improving, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly lower.

Refrigerant field turnover is poor, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is limited, hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, but manufacturers reflect a serious loss, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may decline, but the decline is limited.

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 7,000 yuan/ton on September 30, with a small fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton. This week, the price of carbon black was mainly volatile.

Market quotation

Under the high pressure of national environmental protection supervision, the start-up rate of carbon black industry is limited and supply shrinks. The price of coal tar, the main raw material, remains high, which provides a solid support for the price of carbon black. Domestic passenger car sales have recovered and car ownership has increased steadily. The demand for carbon black is driven by the boom of tire market. Domestic carbon black enterprises are expected to follow the rising tide of prices, thereby increasing profits in the second half of the year.

International aspects

Recently, overseas giants such as East China Sea Carbon Black and Eurelon, which belong to Japan Donghai Carbon Group, have raised their quotations for carbon black products in North America by about $100 per ton. Due to the difference between overseas carbon black raw materials and domestic market, and the demand of the lower reaches has not been improved, domestic carbon black enterprises are still facing greater operational pressure.

Listed company

At present, the carbon black listed companies in the two cities mainly include Longxing Chemical Company, Black Cat Company and Yongdong Company. All three companies have issued performance forecasts for the first half of the year, which have fallen sharply.

Future market forecast: Carbon black market is expected to rebound in the future stable market.

Price Trend

The domestic dimethyl ether market continued to rise in September. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether Market was 2920 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price was 3320 yuan/ton. The increase rate was 13.7% in the month, and the price fell 31.9% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The market of dimethyl ether rose in September, and the trading atmosphere improved significantly. As of September 30th, Yu Yu Tai two methyl ether plant stopped temporarily offer, Lankao Huitong Chemical Co., Ltd., orchid technology venture two methyl ether temporarily quoted price, the new two yuan methyl ether unit failure is temporarily not quoted. Xin Xin Lian chemical industry group, two, methyl ether, the factory price is 3270 yuan / ton, and the output price of the two methyl ether is 3370 yuan / ton, and the two yuan price of two methyl ether is 3350 yuan / ton, and the factory price of two methyl ether is 3370 yuan / ton.

The peak season officially arrived in September, and market prices rose significantly. At the beginning of the month, the trend of dimethyl ether was mainly turbulent. With the increase of cost and methanol, the shipment situation of the manufacturers improved. In addition, with the end of heart-to-heart and bottom-keeping, the trial rose for 3 consecutive days, and the surrounding manufacturers followed up. The market reaction was still acceptable and the trend was relatively strong. Afterwards, affected by the environmental protection policy, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was attacked, and more delisting and wait-and-see were given priority to, and the shipment of manufacturer was hindered. Heart-to-heart again implemented the policy of guaranteeing the bottom, and prices fell slightly. From mid-month to the end of the month, there was a continuous upward trend. Due to the soaring crude oil, the liquefied petroleum gas market has a greater impact. The gas market is rising fiercely and flushing red continuously. The dimethyl ether Market is supported by this, and prices have been raised one after another. The market has begun to warm up. In the latter period, the methanol market was strong and upward, and the demand for replenishment in the downstream before the festival increased. The trading atmosphere of the market continued to improve. Moreover, many manufacturers parked before the festival, the market supply decreased significantly, the situation of supply exceeding demand appeared, manufacturers shipped smoothly, many stocks were basically empty, prices pushed up all the way to the end of the month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in September 2019, of which 4 kinds of commodities have increased by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities are methanol (15.85%), dimethyl ether (13.70%) and gasoline (6.36%). There are five kinds of commodities that have declined annually, two of which have declined by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products of the first three declines are liquefied natural gas (-6.05%), coke (-5.50%) and coking coal (-3.98%). This month’s average rise and fall was 2.2%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that the negative factor: after the multi-plant Festival device will be restarted, increased supply, increased capacity. Pre-Festival prices continue to rise to relatively high levels, the downstream acceptance capacity is limited, the market climate will weaken. Advantageous factors: the demand for inventory and replenishment downstream after the eleventh small and long vacation, coupled with a significant drop in temperature after the eleventh small vacation, the terminal demand has increased, and the gas market will be relatively strong affected by this. Generally speaking, the dimethyl ether Market is expected to show an upward trend in October.

Commodity Index: On September 29, the Polyaluminium Chloride Commodity Index was 108.11, which was the same as yesterday. It was 0.83% lower than the peak of 109.01 points in the cycle (2019-08-28), and 7.15% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: After the price of polyaluminium chloride rose significantly in the second half of August, the price of polyaluminium chloride was relatively stable in September. On September 23, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 2000 yuan/ton, and on September 29, the mainstream quotation was 2000 yuan/ton. The market was relatively stable. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the mainstream quotation in the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride is 1850-2200 yuan/ton for solid polyaluminium chloride (industrial grade, content (> 28%) containing tax, 350-500 yuan/ton for liquid (industrial grade, content 10-12%) containing tax, and 100-200 yuan/ton for solids from last month. The price of yuan/ton and liquid rose by 50 yuan/ton, while the price range was maintained in September.

Industry chain: In the recent upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the price of hydrochloric acid in North China, which was monitored by business associations last weekend, rose slightly. This week’s price was temporarily stable. The mainstream market quotation was 160 yuan/ton on the 22nd and 166.67 yuan/ton on the 27th, up 29.88% year-on-year. The price range is 20 yuan/ton. The quotation of other monitoring samples is stable for the time being. This month, the downstream demand for polyaluminium chloride is stable. At present, the production of polyaluminium chloride in Gongyi, Henan Province has stopped, and the production has been resumed for about ten days. The supply of goods has gradually returned to normal.

Industry: Since late July, the intermittent shutdown has basically ended. Manufacturers have resumed production one after another. The shutdown cycle has returned. In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “shutdown notice” recently. The notice requires that: according to the city’s environmental pollution situation and future pollution. Weather situation analysis, the municipal fortification office requires all deep management enterprises to stop production before acceptance, according to the fortification office scheduling or acceptance can be returned to production. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: resumption of production in August for 10 days and resumption of production on 15 days. According to the manufacturer, the suspension was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on 8 September. The local environmental protection inspection was strict. All local enterprises in Gongyi were asked to stop production for environmental protection management and maintenance. After the National Games on 8 September, the local factories did not receive the notice of start-up immediately, and strict environmental protection inspection was in progress. In late April and September, Gongyi local factories began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.

Future forecast: Business association analysis shows that the impact of environmental protection renovation, National Games and National Day on water treatment plants in Gongyi District, Henan Province, one of the main production areas, has weakened. Local manufacturers have resumed construction in the latter half of the year. Inventory shortages have been solved one after another. It is expected that after the 11th Golden Week, “gold, nine silver and ten” will be achieved. The traditional peak season effect will be released in October.

First, the trend of the market:

According to statistics, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride began to drop slightly in late September. As of 27 days, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride was 7150 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.69%. About 7000-7100 yuan/ton of ortho-phthalic anhydride in Shandong and 7200-7400 yuan/ton of phthalic anhydride in Jiangsu are the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiations. There is sufficient spot supply in the market. The manufacturers reflect that the recent situation of goods is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride has dropped slightly.

II. Market analysis:

Products: Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen down, the onset rate of phthalic anhydride is more than 60%, the spot supply is normal, some manufacturers reflect that the situation of recent goods is not good, the inventory of manufacturers has increased compared with the earlier period, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly fallen. In recent years, the price of raw materials in the upstream market fluctuated mainly, the price of port phthalates did not change much, and there were still installations for overhaul in the phthalic yard, but the spot purchases of phthalic anhydride in the industry were less than in mid-early September, and the affected prices in the phthalic anhydride market dropped slightly; the downstream factories still maintained the need for purchasing, and the main stream of in-site neighbourhood 900-7200 yuan/ton, the main stream of negotiation of naphthalene method is 6500-6700 yuan/ton; the main market quotation of phthalic anhydride in North China is 6900-7100 yuan/ton, the market price is slightly lower, the quotation of some enterprises in North China is declining, downstream construction is general, purchasing on demand is dominant, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride is generally out of stock, manufacturers have increased. Plus, high-end transactions were blocked and phthalic anhydride prices fell.

Upstream: The execution price of domestic phenyl Sinopec is 6700 yuan/ton. Due to the overhaul of domestic phenyl manufacturers, the supply of goods on the site is tight, the price of phenyl remains high, the import phenyl market in the port area is stable, the recent market of phenyl in the port is good, the stock in the port is not high, the quotation of phenyl external market is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is in harmony with each other. In recent years, domestic phthalic anhydride market prices declined by a limited margin, supported by the upstream raw material price of phthalic anhydride.

Downstream: DOP prices remain volatile downstream, isooctanol prices remain stable, and DOP costs change little. DOP price is stable, DOP downstream demand is normal, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market volatility declines, DOP high-end transaction is blocked, DOP market mainstream transaction price 8050-8200 yuan/ton, terminal downstream price is lower, demand bears down the domestic phthalic anhydride market, phthalic anhydride market price slightly declined.

3. Future market forecast:

At present, the price of phthalic anhydride in the upstream is stable, terminal demand is decreasing, DOP price has a downward trend, and on-site profit is insufficient to support. Business analysts believe that the market price of phthalic anhydride may be slightly lower, with a price of about 7000 yuan/ton.

441_Silicon Price Trend

In August, due to the centralized release of domestic and foreign trade orders, market sentiment has warmed up, the pre-signing sufficient inventory of large northern factories has declined, and the price of silicon has risen substantially.

In September, metal silicon failed to continue the strong market in August. The export situation was lower than that in August, and trading was weaker. It is reported that the cumulative export volume of metal silicon in China from January to July 2019 was 414,000 tons, down 17.6% from the same period last year, with an average monthly export volume of 59,000 tons. In order to reduce the cost, Japan purchased Russian master alloys, global metallurgy, Eken and other large overseas silicon factories to split orders, and polycrystalline silicon production capacity accelerated the shuffling export of silicon powder for domestic sales.

Despite the poor demand on the demand side, the good news is that the supply side is also synchronized with the decline. It is reported that the total production of metal silicon in China from January to August 2019 was 1.38 million tons, a 21% decrease over the same period of last year.

According to data from business associations, as of September 26, the average market price of 441_metal silicon in China was 11158.33 yuan/ton, which was 1.11% lower than the average price of 11316.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1), and 12,175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), which was 8.35% lower than the average market price of 12,175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1).

The price of 441# silicon in different regions on the 26th is as follows:

The price range of # metal silicon in Fujian is 10 600-10 800 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Sichuan is 10 800-11 1000 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Kunming is 10 800-11 1000 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Shanghai is 11 800-11 900 yuan/ton, that of # metal silicon in Tianjin Port is 11 100-11 500 yuan/ton, and that of Huangpu is 1 800-11 500 yuan/ton. The price range of metal silicon in Hong Kong is 1100-11300 yuan/ton.

Recent low-grade metal silicon market is depressed, and the market will wait and see downstream demand changes. It is expected that short-term metal silicon will run smoothly and weakly.