I. The supply of bauxite continues to be strained and prices rise

May 16, Aladdin Alumina spot quote 3050 yuan/ton, this week’s increase has reached 8.5%, basically showing a leap upward, and this price compared to April 15 at the bottom of the quote 2665 Yuan/ton has also risen 14.5%. The price of domestic alumina continued to be in the downlink from a staged high of 3340 yuan/ton in mid-September last year, and alumina prices began to rebound after bottoming out in mid-April this year.

The logic of the rebound is mainly due to the continued tension in the supply of bauxite in Shanxi, Shanxi region’s alumina production capacity accounts for about 30% of the total domestic production capacity, and the cost of producing alumina in the entire cost curve at the right end of the position, so pushed up the price of alumina at the beginning of the rebound. And the recent leap upward of alumina prices is due to the impact of the leakage of the red mud Bank in Shanxi. May 7 Jiaokou County The government set up a joint verification working group to carry out a verification work on “leakage of red mud reservoir in Shanxi Junction Shin aluminium factory”. Shanxi junction Fat Aluminum Co., Ltd. is a subordinate enterprise of Shandong Jiaokou County Aluminum Power Group, is also a large private enterprise to attract investment, according to media reports, the alumina project of the Red Mud Reservoir dam surface has cracks, lye leakage and seriously pollute the environment, while triggering the possibility of dam break worries. The official briefing indicated that a shutdown directive had been issued for the enterprise, that 2.8 million tons of alumina production capacity of the enterprise was being rectified as required, that the recovery time had not been determined, and that subsequent market developments remained to be observed.

Aladdin data show that as of March, the total production capacity of domestic alumina is 83.97 million tons, in the yield of 69.61 million tons, Shanxi Junction alumina project shutdown capacity accounted for 3.3% of the total production capacity, accounting for 4% of production capacity. In addition, due to the impact of environmental protection issues, the Office of the central Ministry of Ecological Environment in the near future expedited triggered the “2019 years of ecological Environmental protection overall supervision (first round) notice”, the Central Ecological Environment Department will draw 23 people from May 15 to 25th in Shanxi to carry out integrated strengthening supervision (phase I) work,

Follow up on the inspection and influence of aluminum oxide plant in Shanxi area should be paid close attention to.

Second, the world’s largest alumina plant or comprehensive production SMM5 16th, the Norwegian company (NorskHydro) said in a statement on the official website that the Brazilian Federal court in Belém, Brazil, on the May 15 of the local time to lift the production ban on the Alunorte aluminium oxide plant under the Norwegian Sea, the resolution in the civil action against this incident came into force. Hydro hopes the court can make the same decision on parallel criminal proceedings against the case as soon as possible.

Until then, the Alunorte aluminium oxide plant will continue to maintain 50% operating capacity. The Brazilian Alunorte aluminium oxide plant is the world’s largest alumina plant, with an annual output of 6.3 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the world’s 130 million tonnes of alumina production. The plant in early March 2018 due to pollution accidents affected the shutdown of 50% production capacity, after a brief comprehensive shutdown in October and continued to produce 50% of production capacity. Now the proceedings in hydro and the local courts have finally paid off, and it remains to be seen when production can be fully resumed.

If the Alunorte aluminium oxide plant is fully produced, which is a relatively large bearish factor for overseas alumina prices, overseas alumina prices will continue to be under pressure.

Iii. Investment Proposals It is expected that domestic alumina prices will continue to rise in the short term, alumina profit repair, as well as domestic electrolytic aluminum price center will steadily rise, electrolytic aluminum profits continue to repair, increase industry rating to “stronger than the big city”

First, the price trend

This week, maleic anhydride Market collation (5.13-5.17)

According to business news, the average price of maleic anhydride was 7050.00 yuan/ton (all tax included) by the end of the weekend, and the weakness of the offer fell.

Second, the market analysis

Products: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole fell in a weak position. Industrial chain: First of all, this week the domestic unsaturated resin demand in general, resin factory on demand procurement mainly, the domestic maleic anhydride market weak weakening; second, the mainstream factory quotes weak finishing mainly. Peripheral crude oil fluctuation affects the mentality in the field, crude oil has a certain support market, the upstream raw material pure benzene price is strong, the price of positive butane slightly receded, the market supply is sufficient, short-term benzene method and butane maleic anhydride profitability stability.

Finally, the downstream filling warehouse is cautious, the factory more wait-and-see mainly.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society Chemical Branch maleic anhydride product analysts believe: At present, the recent domestic maleic anhydride market or will remain weak collation trend, the overall price or with this week’s flat.

Price Trend Chart of Nitric Acid Market

According to the monitoring of business associations, nitric acid prices in China rose this week, averaging 1,600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1,633 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 2.08%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic nitric acid market prices increased slightly in some areas. The price quoted by mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu was 1 650 yuan/ton, and the price was increased. Anhui mainstream manufacturers quoted 1600-1650 yuan per ton. Nitric acid shipments are common everywhere, and prices in some areas have increased slightly.

Industry chain: the upstream raw material of nitric acid, liquid ammonia, the domestic market performance of liquid ammonia has stabilized. At present, the market price remains high. The price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 3350-3500 yuan/ton. The price quoted in the northwest region is around 2800-3000 yuan/ton. Downstream aniline, Nanjing chemical aniline market price rose 100 yuan / ton this week, East China maintained stability, the price is about 5600 – 5950 yuan / ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

In summary, Nitric acid analysts believe that the nitric acid market will be strong in the short term.

On May 16, the PX Commodity Index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On the 16th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market, the market of p-xylene was under normal operation. Price trend is stable for the time being. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The market price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 6 US dollars/ton on May 15. The closing price is 851-853 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 870-872 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. The price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On May 15, the price of WTI crude oil in June rose to $62.02 per barrel, an increase of $0.24. The price of Brent crude oil in July rose to $71.77 per barrel, an increase of $0.53. The rising trend of crude oil price has a cost supporting effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market is temporarily stable. Recently, the textile industry has been temporarily stable, PTA prices declined sharply on the 16th day. The average price of East China is raised near 6250-6350 yuan/ton. As of the 15th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate is about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate remains high. However, PTA market prices have not changed much, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of May 15, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 15,875 yuan/ton, and the overall market price was still falling.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregated MDI prices are still falling. On-site prices are declining at a daily rate, and social inventory is large. With the arrival of stockholders, prices are adjusted in time with the market, but demand has not changed much. After midday market low prices continue to be heard, the actual single transaction results need to be verified.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China and Shandong fell weakly. Downstream buy-up and kill-down mentality is strong, the market is short of real trading volume, intermediaries are more under pressure to bid for delivery, the market has heard of real low prices. East China aggregate MDI market weakness fell. At present, market information is confused, due to limited demand follow-up, the majority of operators lack confidence in the future market, mainly bidding for shipments, and the cost pressures of individual operators are becoming more and more obvious. South China aggregate MDI market weakness downward. The downstream just needs to be depressed, the market is not smooth, the operators are under pressure to bid for delivery, the market is constantly low prices.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: East China pure benzene price has not changed much compared with the morning, the current spot negotiations in 4450-4540 yuan/ton, in May at 4470-4570 yuan/ton, in June at 4520-4620 yuan/ton. Aniline: The parking overhaul of main enterprises of aniline has not been restarted yet, and the supply side has some favorable support. However, downstream just need to take goods, the market stable consolidation. East China market mainstream reference 5800 yuan/ton acceptance. The price reference in North China market is 5720-5770 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, Shanghai enterprises are more centralized in overhaul; many enterprises are listed on the new moon. On the negative side, due to the sluggish terminal demand, market consolidation is weak; individual enterprises release goods in volume, the mindset of the business collapses, and pressure delivery. MDI analysts from business associations predict that the short-term market will continue to be weak.

On May 13, the PX Commodity Index was 60.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 41.41% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 31.72% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

On the 14th, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant operated steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation. Other units operated steadily temporarily. Due to the normal supply of p-xylene in the domestic market, the market of p-xylene was under normal operation. Price trend is stable for the time being. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On May 13, the market price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 14 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 874-876 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 893-895 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The low price of foreign units has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price trend of p-xylene in the market is temporarily stable.

On May 13, the price of WTI crude oil in June fell to $61.04 per barrel, a decline of $0.62. Brent crude oil in July fell to $70.23 per barrel, a decline of $0.39. The price of crude oil declined, losing some cost support to the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market stabilized temporarily. Recently, the textile industry has been stable for a while, PTA prices fluctuated on the 14th day. The average offer price in East China was raised near 6650-6750 yuan/ton. As of the 13th day, the domestic PTA start-up rate was about 80%, the polyester industry start-up rate was about 90%, and the downstream production and sales rate maintained a high level. However, PTA Market prices did not change much. It is expected that the price of PX market will remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate fell weakly this week, falling by about 50 yuan/ton, or 0.55%. As of May 11, the average tax-bearing price of the mainstream light potassium carbonate factory in China was 6787 yuan/ton, and the market was weakening.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Potassium carbonate market is not hot this week, the trading atmosphere is cool, while the demand side is weak, resulting in the weak price of potassium nitrate operation. Some of the plants of the manufacturer have been shut down for overhaul. The low stock purchasing market has general momentum, and the weak quotation operation is the main reason. According to the statistics of business associations, the quotation range of mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate factory on May 10 is about 6600-6800 yuan/ton (quotation for reference only). The quotation varies according to different purchasing conditions.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that in the short term, the price of potassium carbonate is dominated by weak consolidation, while in the long run, the market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by demand-side dominance.

The start-up meeting of “Big Data Driven Strategic Research on Oil and Gas Exploration and Development” will be held in Beijing, which will accelerate the development of large data artificial intelligence technology in China’s oil exploration and development.

On May 7, the key consulting and research project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the “Research on the Development Strategy of Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Driven by Big Data”, held a start-up meeting in the China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute. Eight academicians from the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy of Sciences, together with more than 100 experts and scholars in the fields of oil and gas exploration and development and artificial intelligence, have conducted in-depth discussions and exchanges on five topics: seismic, drilling, logging, reservoir description, reservoir engineering integration and health management of intelligent oilfields and equipment driven by large data.

Academician Zhao Wenzhi, President and Secretary of CPC Committee of China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute, delivered a speech, and introduced the background of the development of big data and artificial intelligence. Zhao Wenzhi first affirmed its important role in the field of oil and gas exploration and development, and said that the research team represented by Academician Han Dakuang has always been committed to relevant research work, and strived to organically integrate large data artificial intelligence with oil and gas exploration and development work in order to help scientific decision-making, improve exploration efficiency, optimize development process and reduce production costs.

According to reports, with the strong support of the Ministry of Energy and Mining of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the project has joined 14 academicians and more than 100 experts from four large state-owned oil companies, universities and research institutes in China to participate in the research on the key consulting project of “the strategic research of oil and gas exploration and development driven by big data”, focusing on how to use big data to drive oil exploration intelligently. It is of great importance and far-reaching significance to upgrade the main technologies and the transformation and upgrading of the whole industry.

Han Dakuang, academician of China Academy of Engineering, expert of oil and gas development of China Petroleum Exploration and Development Research Institute and academician Wu Cheng, academician of China Academy of Engineering, made a report on the project as a whole, pointing out that big data and artificial intelligence have set off a new wave of science and technology, and the fourth industrial revolution has arrived; however, China’s petroleum industry is facing severe challenges, relying on existing technologies to meet these It is difficult to continue. We must conform to the tide of the fourth industrial revolution, give full play to the power of big data artificial intelligence, strengthen the application scale of big data artificial intelligence technology in petroleum exploration and development in China, realize the grand goal of upgrading the main technology of petroleum exploration and development, and promote the transformation and upgrading of the whole petroleum exploration and development industry from the technical level.

It is understood that the project has selected five topics: seismic, drilling, logging, reservoir description and reservoir engineering integration, and health management of intelligent oilfields and equipment. It is a very important and arduous task that how to truly realize the updating and replacement of the main technology mentioned above. The project has selected a reasonable technical route and adopted feasible key technologies, and has closely integrated the experts of data and petroleum professions from the beginning to the end.

Academician Han finally made it clear that, as the strategic research put forward and changed the strategic goal of leading the way, this is a grand systematic project, which needs the joint long-term efforts of all aspects, including production, learning, research and management of the whole industry, to be completed. Therefore, besides inviting academicians and experts of this project, the start-up meeting also invited many leaders and other leaders concerned. Domain experts participate in the joint efforts to seize this hard-won strategic opportunity, to achieve curve overtaking, from running to running side by side, to prevent from running and falling behind to running, and ultimately to achieve industry lead.

After the report of the five topics, academicians and experts expressed their views, emphasizing the importance of strengthening top-level design of the project and finding out technical routes to promote the research of large data and artificial intelligence strategy for oil and gas exploration and development. At the same time, it is unanimously pointed out that the application of large data artificial intelligence technology in oil and gas exploration is still in the stage of theoretical assumption. It is necessary to make clear the direction of strategic research and implement breakthroughs and landings in key technologies, which is the key to realize the renewal of oil and gas exploration and development technology in China. It is reported that through the research of this project, it is hopeful that large data artificial intelligence technology will go hand in hand with the development of oil and gas exploration and development, so as to extract more oil and gas resources hidden underground to meet the growing energy demand of the country.

On May 8, the fluorite commodity index was 100.44, unchanged from yesterday, down 21.22% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 104.10% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is rising, the average domestic fluorite price is 2862.5 yuan/ton as of 9 days. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant has been operating normally, the mine and flotation plant have been operating normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the recent downstream market is general. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite market is shocking. In recent years, the downstream units started poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receipt was not good, which led to a slight rise in market price trend. As of September 9, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, and that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan/ton.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10818.88 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened and the price fluctuation of fluorite has been running. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the price of on-site transactions does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in the general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal, and the price of fluorite has risen slightly. Chen Ling, an analyst of business associations, thinks that the price of fluorite market may rise slightly.

First, the price trend

According to business monitoring data, as of May 8, a number of production enterprises suspended the offer, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline.

II. Market Analysis Products: Cyclohexanone market continued to fall, downstream chemical fiber demand reduced, the field of confidence in the aftermarket is insufficient, some manufacturers external prices cut down, the real single deal have to profit, traders follow suit.

North China Market Cyclohexanone mainstream offer in 10000-10100 cash delivery, east China market mainstream offer in 10100-10300 cash delivery, South China market mainstream offer in 10500-10700 cash delivery. Industrial chain: pure benzene: East China pure benzene prices continue to consolidate. At present, spot negotiations in 4430-4550 yuan/ton, May under the negotiation of 4480-4580 yuan/ton, June under the negotiation in 4540-4640 yuan/ton. The atmosphere of the discussion in the field is generally general. Caprolactam: Domestic caprolactam liquid spot market price decline, demand weak situation, polymerization plant procurement cautious, caprolactam market pressure gradually.

Liquid spot negotiation Price in 14000-14200 yuan/ton, acceptance sent to; Northern spot part of the factory price reference 13300-13400 yuan/ton, cash out of the factory.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket On the positive side, the production profit is fair; pure benzene enterprise price increase to give a certain cost support. On the side, the upstream small rise has a certain support, downstream construction is not full, solvent procurement in general, short-term market finishing. Business community Cyclohexanone Analysts expect the short-term cyclohexanone market to remain low in focus.