In the first half of 2023, the domestic Cryolite market fluctuated and the price trend decreased slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of TDI on June 30th was 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to 7950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and an overall decrease of 1.26%. The lowest price in the first half of the year was 7825 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 7975 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 1.88%.

From the monthly K column chart of Cryolite, the price fluctuation in the first half of 2023 can be roughly divided into the following three stages:

Stable but strong (January February): the price of Cryolite market rose slightly, at 7950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and 7975 yuan/ton at the end of February, up 0.31%. The downstream needs to follow up. Cryolite enterprises’ quotations are mainly stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishes goods. Some manufacturers’ shipments are good, and Cryolite slightly increases. After that, the demand remains light. Cryolite manufacturers keep a wait-and-see attitude and operate stably.

Weak downturn (March): The price dropped from 7975 yuan/ton to 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%, which is also the largest amplitude in the first half of the year. In March, the market trend continued to decline. Due to the impact of poor downstream demand and resistance to high price supplies, Cryolite enterprises were not able to ship well, and some manufacturers’ quotations were reduced.

Firm operation (April June).

Future market outlook: at the raw material end, affected by increasingly strict environmental protection, safety and other factors in the upstream, the commencement will not be greatly improved. The supply of fluorite is tight, and Cryolite cost support will continue.

In terms of supply, due to the high production cost, Cryolite enterprises mainly maintain low load when starting work. The manufacturer has no pressure on inventory and the price is firm.

In terms of demand, the consumption of aluminum market may increase in the second half of the year, and the demand for Cryolite will increase, but the market is more resistant to the high price Cryolite, and the overall follow-up may not be much improved. In general, the supply and demand game of Cryolite market, and the price fluctuation is not large, and it is expected that the Cryolite market will consolidate in the second half of the year.

In July 2023, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market will continue to decline. The Spot market price in East China will be 16100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 4.04%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for five consecutive months since December 22. From the weekly bar chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for six consecutive weeks since late May.

In terms of manganese ore, the manganese ore market in July was relatively strong. The market activity has increased, and due to the influence of external quotations, spot prices have fluctuated. Market prices fluctuate, and downstream manufacturers remain in a state of pressure. Some transactions are made at low prices in the market. The shipment quotation for South 32 to China in September 2023 is $4.6 per ton for Australian dollars (a decrease of 0.1), $4.25 per ton for Australian seeds (a decrease of 0.05), and $3.65 per ton for South African semi carbonates (a decrease of 0.05). Port of Tianjin South Africa 30.8-31 yuan/ton, Australia 38.5-39 yuan/ton, Gabon 37-37.5 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Port Macao Block is 39.3 yuan/ton, Gabon is 37.2 yuan/ton, and South Africa’s semi carbonated carbon is 29.8 yuan/ton.

In July 2023, the electrolytic manganese market as a whole went down, and in the first half of the month, the market remained temporarily stable. After the middle of the month, the market accelerated its decline. As of the 31st, the mainstream market price was between 13700 to 13800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 600 to 800 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the overall performance of the domestic market was relatively stable until there was no new news, and downstream procurement remained on demand, with slightly light trading volume. After the middle of the year, with the introduction of new steel bidding prices in China, steel bidding prices have significantly declined, and the domestic electrolytic manganese market is generally under pressure. After entering June, the electrolytic manganese market has been in a downward trend for six consecutive weeks, and the market atmosphere has continued to be sluggish. However, downstream demand is also generally biased towards off-season consumption, with a strong downward pressure on prices. The overseas market has also performed poorly, with a significant downward trend in steel bidding prices, once again dragging down the domestic market mentality. As of the 31st, the FOB price was between 1850 and 1900 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 130 US dollars per ton compared to the previous month. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected to remain weak in the future, waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

In July, the silicon manganese market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the month, it was affected by steel bidding, and market activity increased. However, under the sluggish trend of futures, spot prices were not ideal, and demand was mostly based on on-demand procurement. In the last week, the rise in futures market prices drove the spot prices to temporarily stop falling and stabilize, and the market’s low sentiment slightly stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6500-6600 yuan/ton on July 31st, with an average market price of 6575 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.13% compared to the beginning of the month.

Steel recruitment situation:

The bidding price for electrolytic manganese from July to August 2023 in POSCO, South Korea: CFR Guangyang: 1839 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 141 US dollars/ton compared to the previous round. CFR Busan: $1839 per ton, a decrease of $161 per ton compared to the previous round, with a delivery date before August 20, 2023.

Baowu E Steel’s August 2023 metal manganese bidding: quantity 400 tons, registration deadline July 27, 2023, required delivery date before August 31, 2023.

Baosteel Corporation has launched a new round of electrolytic manganese bidding, with a bidding quantity of 1900 tons for Baoshan Base and 1400 tons for Zhanjiang Base. The quotation is as of July 31, 2023, and the delivery date is before August 31, 2023.

The electrolytic manganese bidding of Hesteel Group was launched in July, with the quantity of 700 tons, 100 tons more than that of last month, and the delivery date is before July 31, 2023.

Related data:

Customs data shows that the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in June 2023 was approximately 24847.275 tons, an increase of 15.74% month on month and a decrease of 19.20% year on year.

In June 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 1520.011 tons, a decrease of 39.2% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 51.99%.

This week (7.24-7.31), the market of Nitrile rubber was weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 31, the price of Nitrile rubber was 13800 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.9% from 13925 yuan/ton last Monday. The price of raw material butadiene and acrylonitrile rose slightly, and the focus of Nitrile rubber cost moved up slightly; Downstream demand continues to be weak, and market transactions remain relatively flat. The ex factory price of Nitrile rubber enterprises is temporarily stable this week. At present, the mainstream report of the 3305 market of Lanhua nitrile in East China is 13200~13400 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 15300-15500 yuan/ton; Sibur Nitrile 3365 mainstream reported 12300~12500 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 13700~14000 yuan/ton.

This week (7.24-7.31), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose slightly, and the cost of Nitrile rubber rose slightly compared with the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the price of butadiene was 7201 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.34% from last Monday’s 6968 yuan/ton; As of July 31st, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 1.25% from last Monday’s 8025 yuan/ton at 8125 yuan/ton.

Zhenjiang Nandi, Shunze, Alang and other Nitrile rubber plants operate normally; The 50000 t/a Nitrile rubber plant of Lanzhou Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on June 14 and restarted in late July; The Jinpu Yingsa nitrile plant is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance in early August. On the whole, the supply of Nitrile rubber has increased slightly compared with the previous period, which has a certain impact on the market.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the supply of Nitrile rubber is increasing slightly at present, and the downstream inquiries are general, so it is expected that the market of Nitrile rubber will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term; In the later period, although Jinpu device will be shut down for maintenance, Lanhua nitrile device is planned to restart, and the overall supply pressure will increase slightly. If there is no significant increase in downstream demand, Nitrile rubber will still operate with weak vibration.

Aluminum prices fluctuated sideways in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on July 28, 2023 was 18343.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.11% compared to the aluminum price of 18550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (July 1).

In the long term, the current price is in a sideways range after a high decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 18200 to 18500 yuan/ton in July.

Overview of Fundamentals

On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Yunnan Province have resumed production capacity of 1.3 million tons. Currently, 1.03 million tons have been completed in July. Due to power outsourcing and device maintenance factors, the production capacity in Sichuan Province has been reduced by about 80000 tons. At present, the production capacity is 41.9 million tons, at a relatively high level.

In terms of social inventory: As of July 27th, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots was 504000 tons. The inventory accumulated slightly in the first half of July and began to be withdrawn in the second half. In July, the trend of aluminum ingot factory inventory was synchronized, and the overall inventory accumulated slightly in July, at around 40000 tons.

Import and export: According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the import volume of unwrought and rolled non-alloy aluminum in China in June 2023 was nearly 8.94 tons, an increase of 15400 tons compared to the previous month and 60900 tons compared to the previous year. From January to June, the total import volume of unalloyed aluminum in China was 485400 tons, an increase of 288200 tons year-on-year, or 146.11%.

Aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate horizontally in August

Multiple factors: Aluminum ingot inventory is still at a relatively low historical level. From a cost perspective, in terms of alumina, due to the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan and the news that local alumina production capacity will be reduced due to mine reclamation in Henan, the short-term volatility of alumina prices is relatively strong, and cost support is slightly strengthened.

Short selling factor: Yunnan’s production is expected to release, with high production capacity and an increase in electrolytic aluminum production expected.

Uncontrollable factors: Is there a new electricity restriction policy introduced during the summer electricity peak.

The long short game intensifies, and aluminum prices may still fluctuate sideways in August.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the domestic market of Cyclohexanone continued to decline in July. From July 1 to 27, the average price of Cyclohexanone in the domestic market rose from 8071 yuan/ton to 8785 yuan/ton, up 8.85%, and the price fell 14.20% year on year.

At the beginning of the month, the raw material pure benzene was strong, and the cost pressure increased. However, the downstream still followed up on demand, and it was difficult to make a big breakthrough in the short term. The market situation of Cyclohexanone was consolidated and operated. In the middle of June, the market price of raw material pure benzene rose, the cost support was strong, the market atmosphere improved, the downstream chemical fiber and solvent were replenished as needed, and the market price of Cyclohexanone rose in a narrow range. In the latter half of the month, the market price of raw material pure benzene continued to rise, with strong cost support. The supply of Cyclohexanone is relatively small. Driven by the cost, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices and actively explore the price rise. As the price rises in the downstream, the follow-up is average.

On the cost side, the domestic pure benzene market continued to rise in July. On July 27th, the benchmark price of pure benzene at Shangshang Society was 7053.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.07% compared to the beginning of this month (6183.83 yuan/ton). Pure benzene has followed the rise of styrene market, with strong demand in spot and recent months, and the increase has expanded. Shandong traders’ demand for inventory and replenishment has actively pursued an upward trend, driving the focus of transactions upward. The cost of Cyclohexanone is favorable.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise equipment maintenance. The short-term supply of Cyclohexanone was slightly positive.

On the demand side, the domestic Caprolactam market rose in a narrow range in July. On July 27, the benchmark price of Caprolactam in the business community was 12300.00 yuan/ton, up 1.67% compared with 12097.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. Under cost pressure, the spot price of Caprolactam increases with the cost. The supply side gradually recovered, and the spot market of Caprolactam increased. The demand side of Cyclohexanone is favorable.

In the future market forecast, pure benzene will operate at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream will follow up as required. Cyclohexanone analysts from the business society predict that the short-term domestic Cyclohexanone market will operate at a high level.

Aluminum prices moved down on July 26th

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18346.67 yuan/ton on July 26, 2023, with a daily increase of 0.05%.

In the long term, the current price is in the sideways range after a high price decline, and has been fluctuating in the range of 18200 to 18600 yuan/ton.

Overview of Fundamentals

Supply side: During the rainy season in southwestern China, with the lifting of power load restrictions in Yunnan, it is expected that 1 to 1.3 million tons of production capacity will resume production. As Yunnan continues to promote the resumption process, the impact of power restrictions in Sichuan is temporarily limited, and there are expectations of an increase in domestic electrolytic aluminum supply.

On the demand side: The overall consumption trend continues in the off-season, and the weekly operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to decrease month on month. It is likely that there will be no significant improvement near the off-season in the future. The overall weakness of terminal real estate is still weak, but there is support for the completion end of the short-term insured delivery policy, with weak data on new construction projects, and stronger demand for aluminum downstream in the near term than in the long term; Looking forward to the growth of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and ultra-high voltage industries in the later stage.

High probability of aluminum price crossing

Aluminum ingot inventory is still at a historical low level, and Yunnan production is expected to release. From a cost perspective, in terms of alumina, due to the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Yunnan and the news that local alumina production capacity will be reduced due to mine reclamation in Henan, the short-term volatility of alumina prices is relatively strong, and the cost support is slightly strengthened. Short term supply pressure may become prominent at the end of July, and it is expected that the social inventory of aluminum ingots will accumulate in July. Short term aluminum prices will move sideways around the 18300 price range.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of July 25th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 6400 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the same period last week. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 6600 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 6400 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and downstream demand procurement is the main focus. The negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On July 24th, the chemical index stood at 828 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 40.86% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 38.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range being weak.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of acetic anhydride was 5187.50 yuan/ton, which has stabilized compared to the fluctuation of 5187.50 yuan/ton on July 16th last weekend; The price of acetic anhydride increased by 3.75% compared to 5000 yuan/ton on July 1st. The price of raw material acetic acid has decreased, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, the production of acetic anhydride manufacturers has stabilized, the supply of acetic anhydride has stabilized, and the price of acetic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized.

Acetic acid prices rose first and then fell this week

According to the market analysis system of acetic acid products in the Business Society, as of July 24th, the price of acetic acid was 3133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08% compared to the 3200 yuan/ton price on July 16th last weekend; Compared to July 1st, the price of acetic acid increased by 8.67% to 2883.33 yuan/ton. Acetic acid enterprises have recovered, the supply of acetic acid has increased, and demand has stabilized. The price of acetic acid has first increased and then decreased, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased. In the future, the downward pressure on acetic anhydride will increase.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data believe that in terms of cost, acetic acid companies have resumed production, with a slight increase in acetic acid supply, while demand side production has remained stable, resulting in a decline in the overall acetic acid market; In terms of production, some acetic anhydride manufacturers have temporarily stabilized, and the supply of acetic anhydride is stabilizing. However, downstream production has temporarily stabilized, and demand is stable. There is still momentum for the rise of acetic anhydride. Overall, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased and the supply is stabilizing. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and weaken in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12162 yuan/ton on July 17, and the average price of domestic liquid Caprolactam was 12237 yuan/ton on July 21. The price of Caprolactam rose 0.62% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market prices rose this week. This week, the price of pure benzene, the raw material, has increased, providing positive cost support. Under cost pressure, the spot price of Caprolactam increases with the cost. The supply side gradually recovered, and the spot market of Caprolactam increased. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and terminal follow-up is average.

The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On July 17th, the price of pure benzene was 6792 yuan/ton. On Friday (July 21st), the price of pure benzene was 6901 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.89% compared to last week and a decrease of 23.53% compared to the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene remained stable at 6800 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has risen sharply recently. Affected by the cost boost, the market trend of Caprolactam has risen, and the terminal demand has followed up on demand. The Caprolactam market is expected to rise in the short term due to favorable market factors.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has shown an upward trend, while the domestic heavy rare earth market has shown an upward trend. On July 17, the rare earth index reached 444 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.91% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 63.84% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy and dysprosium metal in China has been rising. As of the 18th, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.23 million yuan/ton, with an increase of 11.50% in the middle of the year; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.165 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.07% in the middle of the year; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.86 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.52% in the middle of the year; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 7.225 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 9.05 million yuan/ton.

In the middle of the year, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market rose rapidly. Recently, there has been an increase in inquiries, coupled with a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earths market prices have risen. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. In addition, with the arrival of long-term cooperative orders in the middle of the month, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of heavy rare earth goods, and the quotations of holding merchants continue to rise. However, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia and an increase in the supply of heavy rare earths, there is still a wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which correspondingly increased the market prices of heavy rare earths.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, with a slight increase in downstream demand. It is expected that the prices of heavy rare earth markets will mainly rise in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.