According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has shown an upward trend, while the domestic heavy rare earth market has shown an upward trend. On July 17, the rare earth index reached 444 points, an increase of 3 points from yesterday, a decrease of 55.91% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 63.84% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy and dysprosium metal in China has been rising. As of the 18th, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.23 million yuan/ton, with an increase of 11.50% in the middle of the year; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.165 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.07% in the middle of the year; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.86 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.52% in the middle of the year; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 7.225 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 9.05 million yuan/ton.

In the middle of the year, the prices of heavy rare earths in the market rose rapidly. Recently, there has been an increase in inquiries, coupled with a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earths market prices have risen. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. In addition, with the arrival of long-term cooperative orders in the middle of the month, it is difficult to find low-priced sources of heavy rare earth goods, and the quotations of holding merchants continue to rise. However, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia and an increase in the supply of heavy rare earths, there is still a wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which correspondingly increased the market prices of heavy rare earths.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, with a slight increase in downstream demand. It is expected that the prices of heavy rare earth markets will mainly rise in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.