This week (7.10-14), domestic Adipic acid stabilized and recovered. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 14, the weekly increase of Adipic acid was 0.67%. The market trading center has risen by around 100 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of Adipic acid market is 8900-9200 yuan/ton. The main reason is the combination of favorable cost and reduced supply.

Industrial chain

The figure above shows that this week, the upstream and downstream products of the Adipic acid industry chain turned red, the upstream raw material side improved significantly, and the raw materials rose across the whole line, especially the pure benzene. The main downstream product PA66 has stopped falling and stabilized, with demand for a rebound in prices.

Cost side: Overall favorable raw material costs

This week, crude oil continued to rise, bringing certain benefits to the domestic petrochemical market. The price of pure benzene in China has increased significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the weekly increase in pure benzene is nearly 5%.. The quotation of the main refinery has been significantly increased. Some ethylbenzene and Caprolactam devices in the downstream of Shandong market were started, and the demand for pure benzene was significantly increased; By the end of the week, the spot trading range in East China was 6350-6600 yuan/ton. The price of Cyclohexanone also rebounded, with a weekly increase of nearly 1%. In terms of cost, the recovery of upstream raw material market has boosted Adipic acid.

Supply side: The parking supply for enterprise equipment has been tightened

From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the operating rate of Adipic acid has declined this week. About 60% will be maintained, and the prices of major manufacturers will be partially increased this week. The parking of Haili Equipment has brought benefits to market supply, and the decrease in supply has made manufacturers more effective in boosting the market. The improvement of supply is an important reason for the price of Adipic acid to recover. However, there has been little improvement on the demand side, and the upward trend has been suppressed.

On the demand side: it is difficult to form a strong boost on the demand side

The downstream of Adipic acid is relatively depressed. Terminal procurement maintains a rigid demand. Taking PA66 as an example, although prices have bottomed out and stabilized this week, there is no sign of a rebound in the market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the increase and decrease of PA66 this week was 0. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is between 19500 to 19800 yuan/ton. In addition, some devices of Caprolactam in other downstream areas were restarted, and the demand was slightly improved. However, when TPU entered the slack season of the industry, the decrease of orders and the difficulty in improving demand were the fundamental reasons that restricted the price rebound of Adipic acid.

Future prospects

With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believe that the current cost side is mostly good. On the one hand, crude oil continues to run strongly, and on the other hand, pure benzene is still in the upward phase. The factory shows a clear willingness to support the market, and the supply side will still maintain a moderately tight pattern, which will continue to support the price rise of Adipic acid. Considering the constraints on the demand side, it is expected that the increase of Adipic acid will be limited.