price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market mainly experienced a decline in mid August, with most spot prices of certain brands experiencing narrow price reductions. As of August 19th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14283.33 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of -0.35% compared to early August.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In mid August, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had a large and stable load with small fluctuations, and the industry average operating level remained stable at around 81%. The average weekly output is close to 69000 tons, and the on-site supply is abundant. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. The shipment pressure of the aggregation plant remains unchanged, and the market supply side has poor support for PC prices.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that bisphenol A fluctuated and weakened in mid August. Upstream acetone and phenol have fluctuated, with limited boost to bisphenol A, while bisphenol A supply remains in a loose pattern. The weak demand has not changed, and the market lacks upward momentum. Overall, the decline in the bisphenol A market provides moderate support for PC costs.
On the demand side: Currently, it is still in the traditional off-season period for PC, and downstream factory loads have further decreased. The main focus is on stocking weak and rigid demand, and early warehouse construction operations are rare. Due to the long-term weak market dynamics in the industry, high social inventory, and abundant on-site supply, it is difficult to improve the supply-demand contradiction within the range. In addition, with weak foreign trade orders, terminal enterprises are under pressure and are resistant to high priced sources of goods. On the other hand, the financial pressure on traders has increased synchronously, and there has been an increase in the practice of offering discounts and taking orders. The circulation speed of on-site goods is slow, and the trading performance continues to be dominated by contract delivery. Overall, the demand side has weak support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
In mid August, the domestic PC market fluctuated and weakened. The upstream bisphenol A market remains weak, providing little support for the cost value of PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants is generally stable, and the pattern of strong supply remains unchanged. The off-season characteristics of downstream demand remain unchanged, and market benefits are difficult to materialize. Industry players are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market. At present, PC prices are at a low level with some decline, but the market momentum is unlikely to improve in the short term. It is expected that the PC market will continue to search for a bottom in the future.