According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 12, 2022, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price reference of the silicone DMC market in the mainstream regions of China is 17580 yuan/ton, which is 620 yuan/ton lower than the price on October 2, 2022 (18200 yuan/ton), a decrease of 3.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic silicone DMC market is in a weak downward trend after returning from the National Day holiday in October. Two days before coming back after the festival, Shandong Dachang silicone DMC quoted 17500 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as several days before the festival. The news of silicone DMC on the market was relatively calm, and the market was mainly consolidated. On the 10th, some silicone DMC suppliers with higher prices before the festival started the profit giving shipping mode, and the actual order can be negotiated about 300-500 yuan/ton. 11. On the 12th, the weak decline trend of the silicone DMC market continued. The quotation of Shandong Dachang silicone DMC was lowered to 17300 yuan/ton, and other monomer plants and suppliers in the market continued to hold discussion space. As of October 12, the market price of domestic silicone DMC is around 17300-17500 yuan/ton, and some high quotations are 18000 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, after the National Day holiday, the domestic metal silicon (product name: 441 #) market situation was stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of metal silicon was 21250 yuan/ton on October 11, a decrease of 0.05% compared with October 1 (21260.00).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the overall stock preparation of the middle and lower reaches of the organosilicon DMC is still cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The contradiction between supply and demand in the field is obvious. It is heard that some monomer devices will have a reduced maintenance plan in the near future. The supply side will actively ship, while the demand side will continue to stock up just in time. The organosilicon DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market will be mainly weak, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8666.67 yuan/ton as of October 11, up 1.17% from October 8, up 10.64% from September 11, and down 23.53% year on year in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (10.8-10.11), the acrylic acid market has risen steadily. After the festival, the market price of raw propylene rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the load of some units was limited. In addition, the downstream buyer was more active, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation was steadily rising. The downstream was cautious and wait-and-see after the price increase, and the procurement was mainly just needed.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7780.60 on October 10, up 2.1% compared with October 1 (7620.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from the business community believe that the current raw material propylene market is strong, the cost support is still strong, the supply and demand side procurement is mainly just in demand, and the market transaction is moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 10th, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 185983.33 yuan/ton, down 2.71% from the previous trading day and up 29.39% year on year.

The rising interest rate increase helped the US dollar, and Rennie closed 1.45% lower the next week. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase is approaching step by step, which makes investors worry that the global economy is in recession. Influenced by macro sentiment, the nickel market is under pressure, the inventory of Lunni is rebounding, and refined nickel is largely replaced by nickel intermediates. Poor market demand will lead to excess nickel supply. The fundamentals of nickel supply and demand did not change much during the holiday, and the overall situation was dominated by macro changes. The domestic pre festival replenishment has reduced the low level of nickel and stainless steel stocks. After the festival, we will pay attention to the willingness of downstream customers to take more goods. Ferronickel import supply is loose, and domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. With regard to the future market, nickel demand is driven by new energy batteries, and the improvement of downstream stainless steel demand depends on the promotion of Baojiao Building. In October, nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a weak pattern of shock.

Influenced by the epidemic situation of New Coronary Pneumonia, the use of protective clothing and masks has soared, and the price of spandex has risen since August 2020 due to the expansion of the application field of spandex. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the 40D specification has risen from 31100 yuan/ton to 83750 yuan/ton in August 2021, an increase of 169.29%, a new high in nearly a decade. Subsequently, due to the weakening of downstream demand and the increase of polyurethane fiber supply, it entered a rapid decline channel from the fourth quarter of 2021, and fell back to the level two years ago by August 2022.

However, in September, the polyurethane fiber market stopped falling and recovered. As of September 30, the average market price was 35000 yuan/ton, up 7.03% from the beginning of the month. Due to the firm BDO price, it has formed a good support for the cost of polyurethane raw material PTMEG. In addition, the terminal demand of “Jinjiu” has warmed up, which alleviates the inventory pressure of the polyurethane factory. The inventory of individual specifications and models is tight, and the current market as a whole shows signs of improvement.

High cost and tight spot are good supports. Traders are reluctant to sell and pull up the price. The polyurethane raw material market is on the rise. In September, PTMEG prices were raised after consolidation, and the industry started at a low level of 4.9%. With the rise of BDO prices on the cost side, the factory’s intention to raise prices was strengthened. As of the end of the month, the domestic PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) market negotiation evaluation was 18000-19000 yuan/ton, and some specifications were not reported. The pure MDI market experienced a strong pull up, and the rise slowed down at the end of the month. At present, the reference price of the local market is 20200-20500 yuan/ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Driven by the price rise of spandex, the terminal consumption of superimposed “Golden Ninth” has gradually entered the traditional peak season. Orders have been placed in autumn and winter, releasing the demand for staged replenishment. In terms of construction, the construction of round machine and wrapped yarn in Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province started at 30% to 50%; The starting level of the round knitting machine market in Jiangsu is 3-4%, and the starting level of the wrapped yarn and warp knitting market is 5-6.5%; Guangdong started cautiously, with an overall level of 3.5-6.50%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw materials will still rise slightly, and the cost side support remains. However, the demand for replenishment in the downstream terminal market may be overdrawn in advance before the festival, and after the festival, it will remain just in need to follow up and be cautious. Superimposed new production capacity will also form a certain resistance to price rise. It is expected that the price of spandex in October will increase in a narrow range.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong rose this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 1336.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the weekend was 1403.33 yuan/ton, up 4.99%. The current price rose 9.64% month on month, and the current price fell 23.45% year on year.

formaldehyde

The price of formaldehyde market in Shandong Province rose this week. From the figure above, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market in the past two months has been dominated by a small upward trend, and this week’s rise has expanded. As of October 8, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1380-1430 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen sharply, with strong cost support. The demand of the downstream panel plants is general, and the purchase is still in demand. The transaction in the formaldehyde market is fair. The manufacturers normally ship, and the market continues to rise driven by the cost.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has risen recently. Some traders offer no goods. The price of coal is firm, raw materials support the methanol market, and there is a strong intention to prepare downstream goods before the festival. There is a slight difference between regions. Some regions are short of supply and have strong demand. Some regions have sufficient supply and general demand. The trend of methanol market is slightly different between regions.

This week, the methanol market continued to rise, and the cost level remained high. Driven by the rising cost, formaldehyde manufacturers led the market to rise in order to make profits. At present, the operating rate of formaldehyde manufacturers has risen, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Downstream plate plants maintain just need to purchase. The market transaction is general, and the formaldehyde market mainly rises with the rising cost.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has increased greatly, and the procurement of downstream wood panel plants has maintained a strong demand. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the recent increase of formaldehyde prices in Shandong was mainly due to shock.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell sharply this month, from 4633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 12.23%. The factory price of potassium chloride in China is temporarily stable. The factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this month is 4480.00 yuan/ton. It is reported that potassium chloride in the salt lake may fall by more than 1000 yuan in October. On September 30, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 107.02, unchanged from yesterday, 26.06% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 10.66% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now) (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this month: the ex factory quotation of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 4480 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, a drop of 400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4200 yuan/ton, a drop of 650 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, a drop of 650 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3800-4000 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this month, from 9475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9375.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.06%, 17.55% higher than the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6525.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 5.51%, 18.43% higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of October may slightly fluctuate, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was stable, and the new price was implemented in October, or fell sharply. The price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is weakened, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand procurement is dominant. In the future, the price of potassium chloride may fall in shock.

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell first and then rose this month. The price of hydrochloric acid fell from 163.33 yuan/ton on September 1 to 153.3 yuan/ton on September 10, a decline of 6.12%. Later, it rose to 166.67 yuan/ton on September 24, up 8.70%. The price at the end of the month fell 43.27% year-on-year.

On September 29, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 43.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.19% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 143.94% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support improved and downstream procurement weakened

Domestic hydrochloric acid market in September

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market has risen sharply, giving better support to hydrochloric acid. The price of liquid chlorine in Dongming Petrochemical increased from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The downstream ammonium chloride market declined slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride fell from 1145.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1012.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 11.57%, 9.19% YoY compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 2095.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2043.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.45%, 8.77% higher than the same period last year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of October, the market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly. Although the upstream liquid chlorine market rose sharply and the cost support was good, the downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The analysts of the business association believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan/ton on September 1, and 3150 yuan/ton on September 28. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 7.35% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 1 was 4350 yuan/ton, and on September 28, the average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 28 was 4050 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 6.9% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The overall trend of monoammonium phosphate price fell this month, and the market rose slightly at the end of the month. In the first ten days of September, the demand for monoammonium phosphate was poor, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the price of monoammonium phosphate fell. In the middle of September, the monoammonium started to operate in a small amplitude of vibration and consolidation until the end of the month. As the price of raw sulfur continues to rise, the cost support is good. At the end of the month, the delivery direction of monoammonium is good, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the price of monoammonium rises slightly. As of September 28, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was 2800-2950 yuan/ton, that in Anhui was about 3050 yuan/ton, and that in Sichuan was 2900-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiable.

The overall price trend of diammonium phosphate fell this month, and the market rose slightly at the end of the month. In the first half of September, the downstream demand of diammonium chloride was insufficient, and the price was lowered one after another for the purpose of digesting inventory. The market was weak. In the second half of September, diammonium chloride was reorganized and operated in a volatile manner, with good market trading and investment. Downstream purchases were made on demand, new orders increased, and prices fluctuated in a narrow range. As of September 28, 64% of diammonium chloride in Hubei had quoted 3350-3500 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium chloride in Guizhou had quoted about 3800 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium chloride in Yunnan had quoted 3800-4200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. In September, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore was slightly down, and the price of some mining enterprises was slightly down by 10-20 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is average, which affects the mentality of the industry, and the overall market atmosphere is weaker than that at the end of August. In the middle and late September, the domestic phosphorus ore market was generally stable and consolidated. The supply in the phosphate rock yard is still tight, with less spot circulation. Some mining enterprises mainly implement early orders, and supply more pre orders. Therefore, the supply side continues to give some support to the phosphate rock market. As of September 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China is around 1064 yuan/ton.

Raw sulfur. Sulfur prices in East China rose sharply this month. On the downstream side, the sulphuric acid market was sorted up, and the factory actively prepared goods before the festival, and the price was raised. The ammonium phosphate market is operating steadily, the downstream market is improving, the demand for sulfur procurement is increasing, the port market is operating strongly, and the carrier supports the market operation to boost the domestic sulfur market. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province prepares goods downstream before the festival, and the enterprise’s shipment is smooth, and the quotation is raised. As of September 28, the sulfur price of refinery enterprises in Shandong Province has been raised. The mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1300-1500 yuan/ton, and the range has been increased by 30 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1350-1450 yuan/ton, and the maximum price is increased by 30 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the current trend of ammonium phosphate market is consolidating. The trend of raw sulfur is good, the cost support is strong, and the manufacturer sells at a high price. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the phosphate fertilizer market is steadily promoted in autumn. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will be stable in the short term, mainly with small fluctuations.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises as of September 27 was 481666.66 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of September 1, 1.40% higher than that of August 27, 1.76% higher than that of the same period in three months, and 189.58% higher than that of the same period last year.

In September, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market ran at a high level. In the first half of the month, the upstream lithium carbonate price rose, and the supply side increased compared with the previous period. However, the manufacturer mainly made up long orders, and the spot supply was tight. The downstream inquiry procurement was active. With the rise of lithium carbonate and the support of supply and demand, the focus of lithium hydroxide market negotiations was high. In the second half of the month, the support from upstream lithium carbonate is still strong. Large factories give priority to the delivery of long-term orders. Downstream stock procurement has increased, and the demand side has increased. The lithium hydroxide market atmosphere is positive under multiple supports.

On September 26, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate in the upstream business community was 498000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared with September 1 (483000.00 yuan/ton). On September 26, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in the business community was 514000.00 yuan/ton, up 3.01% compared with September 1 (499000.00 yuan/ton).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business community believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is high, the support for lithium hydroxide still exists, and the supply side support is fair. The demand for just needed goods in the downstream is increasing. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

At the beginning of the week, the on-site resources of the market were still tight, the port inventory fell to 14000 tons, some factories continued to limit shipments, the on-site spot resources were further tight, the holders were reluctant to sell obviously, the terminal just needed to follow up with inquiries, and the pre holiday replenishment was nearing the end.

The offer of phenol in various markets nationwide is as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China., 10850., 150

Shandong, 10980., 50

Around Yanshan, 10900., 50

South China, 10900., 100