Aluminum prices fell weakly in April

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on April 29 was 20826.67 yuan / ton, down 8.41% from the average market price of 22740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (4.1).

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 14.08% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 11.41% recently.

Fundamental analysis

1. Raw material end – alumina

Recently, the supply of domestic raw material alumina is relatively tight. According to the data, the output of alumina in March 2022 was 6.342 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%. Recently, the supply of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan and Guizhou is in a tight pattern. Under the influence of the epidemic and the tightening of bauxite supply, some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are facing increased risk of production reduction, and some alumina enterprises in Guizhou are still running with reduced load; The logistics factors in the circulation chain were restricted in the early stage. At present, the transportation in Shandong and Henan is gradually recovering. In terms of import volume, the import volume of alumina from January to March 2022 was 603100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.23%.

2. The external atmosphere is expected to improve

The early European energy crisis led to a systematic rise in electricity prices in Europe, an increase in the cost of electricity for aluminum plants, and frequent production cuts in aluminum plants in Western Europe. At present, due to the high processing fee and high water rise in Europe, the supply of aluminum plants in production shows signs of recovery. In addition, electrolytic aluminum in Southeast Asia, South America and the Middle East has plans to expand and resume production, showing an accelerated trend. The tense atmosphere of aluminum supply in the outer disk has gradually subsided and is expected to improve.

3. Domestic data

Import and export data: in March, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 394.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 55.11%. From January to March 2022, China imported 965.51 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a year-on-year decrease of 34.15%. From January to March 2022, the total domestic net import was 23400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 92.9%.

Capacity and output data: in March, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.32 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%. At the end of the first quarter, the built capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum reached 44.07 million tons and the operating capacity reached around 39.97 million tons. In April, the resumption of production of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises was mainly concentrated in the southwest. Since the beginning of the year, the resumption of production in Yunnan has reached 940000 tons, and the resumption of production progress has exceeded 60% compared with the reduction of production capacity last year. The resumption of production progress of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Qinghai is also accelerating. In April, the domestic operation capacity was around 40 million tons.

Downstream terminal data: in March, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 23.4% and 28.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 11.7%. From January to March, the automobile production and sales were 6.484 million and 6.599 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0% and 0.2%, and the growth rate was 6.8% and 7.3% lower than that from January to February.

Future forecast

In the early stage, the external supply is expected to digest, and the benefits of overseas supply gradually subside; In terms of domestic situation, the supply side has increased the market supply due to the promotion of the planned new production capacity and resumption of production. However, due to transportation factors, the overall arrival volume of the warehouse is not high, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has been removed recently. The downstream terminal consumption is expected to improve in the later stage. It is expected that the price of electrolytic aluminum will remain weak and stable in the short term, and the downward space will gradually narrow.

Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply in April

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in April, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. As of April 29, the price of acetic anhydride was 7437.50 yuan / ton, down 10.12% from 8275.00 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic anhydride of some manufacturers approached the 7000 yuan mark, and the price of acetic anhydride fell by 1000 yuan / ton in April.

The price of raw material acetic acid fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the correlation statistics of business society that the correlation coefficient between acetic anhydride and acetic acid is 0.941, and acetic anhydride and acetic acid are highly positively correlated. As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell sharply in April, and the price of acetic acid fell by 18.39%. Affected by control, the logistics and transportation were not smooth, the shipment of acetic acid manufacturers was blocked, the demand was weak, the high price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business society, the methanol price fluctuated and adjusted in April, and the overall methanol price fell. As of April 29, the methanol price was 2745 yuan / ton, down 10.59% from 3070 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. At the end of the heating season, the high price of global energy market fell, and the high price of methanol fell. In April, the price of methanol fell sharply, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline was great.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business society believe that the prices of raw materials methanol and acetic acid have fallen sharply, and the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased; Under the influence of management and control, acetic acid enterprises reduce negative production, acetic acid enterprises have difficulties in shipping, the downstream demand for acetic acid is weak, and the downward pressure of acetic acid is increased; The price of acetic anhydride raw materials continued to decline, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased. Generally speaking, the price of methanol and acetic acid, the raw materials of acetic anhydride in the future, has great downward pressure, the cost of acetic anhydride has decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride has increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride in the future will fluctuate and fall.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price trend of acetic acid continued to decline in April. The average price of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 5220 yuan / ton, the price at the end of the month was 4260 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 960 yuan / ton within the month, a decrease of 18.39%, and the price decreased by 47.16% year-on-year.

As of April 29, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

Region, April 1, April 15, April 29th

South China, 5100 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, 4050 yuan / ton

North China, 4950 yuan / ton, 4800 yuan / ton, 3600 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 5000 yuan / ton, 4900 yuan / ton, 3600 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Province, 5050 yuan / ton, 5000 yuan / ton, 3750 yuan / ton

Zhejiang Province, 5150 yuan / ton, 5100 yuan / ton, 3850 yuan / ton

In April, the acetic acid market was weak, the price trend of acetic acid in the first ten days was on the sidelines, and the maintenance manufacturers of acetic acid units in East China had not been restored. The supply of goods in the field remained rational, and the downstream purchase was followed up rationally. The operator’s mentality was mainly on the sidelines, and the overall price remained stable. In some regions, due to the accumulation of inventory, the quotation was slightly adjusted and reduced. In the middle and late ten days, the price trend of acetic acid continued to decline, Shanghai Huayi acetic acid plant resumed full load operation, the acetic acid plant of the main manufacturer in Shandong returned to normal operation, and the on-site supply increased. Affected by public health events, logistics and transportation were blocked, freight rates increased and some regions did not transport. The downstream demand weakened, the market supply accumulated, and the market mentality of buying up but not buying down, so the acetic acid market continued to operate weakly..

The downstream ethyl acetate Market was weak in April, and the quotation at the end of the month was 8200-8500 yuan / ton, mainly based on the sorting of the basic market. Affected by public health events, the operating rate of ethyl acetate in April was low, and some units mainly reduced the load. At the same time, due to the impact of logistics, some shipments were blocked, and the difficulty of market inquiry increased. In addition, in terms of downstream demand, the procurement between dealers and downstream factories was stable, and the preparation of goods before the festival restrained the reduction of ethyl acetate price to a certain extent.

Business analysts believe that at present, the domestic acetic acid market has sufficient supply, enterprise inventory accumulation, the impact of local prevention and control, Limited Logistics and transportation, weak downstream demand, the mentality of operators is stalemate and wait-and-see. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the future market is weak.

On April 28, the mainstream quotation range of 1# tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market was 334000-337500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 335750 yuan / ton, down 1750 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

On the night of the 27th, the US dollar hit a five-year high of 103.29. Under pressure in the metal market, Lunxi fell 0.85% and Huxi fell 0.58%. The upstream and downstream demand of fundamentals is still weak, maintaining on-demand procurement, and the downstream part just needs to receive goods. At present, the domestic tin inventory has declined slightly, the overall tin inventory is still low, and the low inventory continues to support the high consolidation of tin price.

Latest price (April 27): 17666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business agency, the price of refrigerant R22 was temporarily stable on April 27, unchanged from the previous day, with a year-on-year increase of 6.43%. The price of raw materials hydrofluoric acid and chloroform fell slightly, and the cost support became weaker. Moreover, with the completion of Dongyue maintenance, the market supply increased, while the demand did not increase. Under the bad conditions of many parties, the price of R22 fell steadily. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 11560 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5490 yuan / ton, and the market quotation of R22 is mostly in the range of 17500-18000 yuan / ton.

R22 market is expected to fall steadily.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (April 26): 8890 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 25, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8790 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from the previous trading day and 2.06% year-on-year. At present, the demand of downstream products industry is general, and the price of raw materials is down, the cost side and demand side are both weak, the price of PVC is declining, and there is a certain profit margin in the negotiation. The goods holders follow the market and shift their focus downward, but the transaction atmosphere is not good. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3950-4100 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8500-9100 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to be stable and weak.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (April 25): 18375 yuan / ton

Main points of daily market analysis: the average price of TDI in East China is flat. The logistics transportation is blocked, the on-site freight increases, the downstream demand purchase is limited, the enthusiasm of the terminal to prepare goods before the festival is general, the market trading is weak, the supplier has many sets of TDI device storage and maintenance plans, the market supply is tight, and the market situation is mainly stalemate in terms of supply and demand performance. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 17400-17800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 18000-18500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: wait and see the TDI market in the later stage, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite remained stable this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2800.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week.

This week, the overall performance of the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market is stable. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite is 2600-2900 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 2700-2800 yuan / ton. The enterprise inventory is about 30%, the market supply and demand is stable, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of manufacturers. Please contact manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of April, the price of domestic soda ash has increased slightly by 0.97%, and the price of sulfur has increased by 8.07%. The overall cost of raw materials continues to increase, which will further support the market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the dual support of cost and demand, the overall domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

Trade name: ammonium sulfate

Latest price: 1783 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the price of ammonium sulfate was stable on April 21, which was flat compared with the previous trading day. The market of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly today, and the price was mainly stable. The downstream purchases on demand, and the trading volume is acceptable. Coking grade ammonium sulfate operates stably, and the bidding price fluctuates slightly. The fluctuation of hexene grade ammonium sulfate is small, and the price of bulk cargo is reduced. It is suggested to pay attention to the export market.

Future forecast: in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate fluctuates slightly and runs smoothly.

On April 20, the rare earth index was 787 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 21.85% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 190.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series was temporarily stable. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 850000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal was 1040000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide was 865000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide was 885000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1185000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium was 1090000 yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium oxide increased by 30000 yuan / ton to 2605000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 30000 yuan / ton to 2.595 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.32 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market was temporarily stable, and the recent procurement was general. The price of dysprosium Series in domestic heavy rare earth market increased, the price of terbium series increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned export, and the price of domestic rare earth market is expected to rise slightly in the later period.