On Monday night, the nonferrous metal market rose and fell with each other. Shanghai lead opened lower at night and went up. Today, it rebounded from a low position in early trading and stopped falling temporarily. As of the closing of the 8th, the settlement price of the main contract of Shanghai lead 2107 was 15010 yuan / ton, up 0.40%.

The price of lead ingot in the domestic spot lead market is about 14850-15000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14925 yuan / ton, up 75 yuan / ton from the previous trading day. At present, the tight supply of domestic ore end is still continuing, which has a certain support for the price of lead. However, due to the high social inventory, there is still some pressure on the price of lead. In June, the lower reaches are still in the off-season, the enthusiasm of the lower reaches to enter the market is limited, and the overall talks are still rather cold.

In the future, the business community believes that the electrolytic lead market is playing a long and short game, and there is a certain intention to replenish the downstream near the Dragon Boat Festival. It is expected that the lead price will fall in a limited space, and the fluctuation trend will be dominant.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of p-xylene that the price of p-xylene rose this week. By the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6500 yuan / ton, up 1.56% compared with 6400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 58.54% year on year. The price trend of domestic PX market rose this week.

In recent years, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%. The 600000 ton unit of Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical Co., Ltd. operates stably, the Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, the Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, the Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical Unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, and the Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic supply of p-xylene is general. However, some overseas plants are still under maintenance, and the domestic price of p-xylene remains high due to the impact. The recent rise in the international crude oil closing price affected the PX external price trend. As of the 3rd, the closing prices in Asia were US $837-839 / T FOB Korea and US $855-857 / T CFR China. The recent change in the operating rate of PX units in Asia was not big. As a whole, the operating rate of PX units in Asia was less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia was general, and the PX external closing price rose, Domestic market price of p-xylene rose slightly.

The price of crude oil rose sharply this week, and the international oil price continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was 68.81 US dollars / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures market was 71.31 US dollars / barrel. The main reason is that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) agreed to increase production, but the speed of resuming production depends on market conditions, Fuel demand is expected to increase during the summer driving season in North America. This week’s sharp rise in crude oil prices is good for domestic petrochemical prices, while the price trend of p-xylene rose slightly due to this impact.

The price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches rose slightly this week, and the domestic PTA spot market price rose. As of the 4th, the average price of PTA market was 4700-4750 yuan / ton, up 0.85% this week. International crude oil prices rose sharply, and cost support was obvious. The PTA plant has been running stably in the near future, and the supply side has performed normally. This week, the PTA operation rate is about 86.5%. The PTA delivery situation is general, and the on-site delivery situation is general. Polyester production and marketing has little change, the international epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, but the follow-up orders of the textile industry are weak. The profits of domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning process. The lower reaches of the textile industry do not have a high acceptance of the fabric price rise, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price rose slightly, the downstream market was general, and the price of p-xylene market rose slightly.

PX analyst Chen Ling believes that there is a certain uncertainty in the current cost side, short-term crude oil prices have a supporting role, coupled with the lower PTA and textile market trend is temporarily stable, it is expected that the market price of p-xylene will be stable in the future.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde at the beginning of the week was 5833 yuan / ton, while the average price at the end of the week was 5800 yuan / ton, down 0.57%.

2、 Market analysis

On June 2, Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offered 5700 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which was the same as last time. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5600 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last time. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax is 6100 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than last time. The market of paraformaldehyde was fair, and the price of paraformaldehyde declined due to the decrease of methanol.

On June 2, methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell sharply, closing at 2506 yuan / ton, down 49 yuan / ton or 1.92% compared with the closing of the previous trading day. Methanol spot market was mainly volatile, with a slight decline in some areas.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by methanol raw materials, business community polyoxymethylene analysts expect that polyoxymethylene or will be reduced.

Gasoline demand in the United States has risen to the highest level since the outbreak. Road traffic in the United Kingdom has exceeded the pre epidemic record for the first time. Demand in Europe and the United States is expected to improve in summer, and international oil prices continue to rise. According to the data of business news agency, as of June 2, the price of MTBE was 5876 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 1.51% and a year-on-year increase of 61.00%.

The market of MTBE was stable with a small rise in some parts, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The continued upward trend of international oil prices, coupled with a small rise in gasoline prices, has given some support to the MTBE market.

In terms of external market, as of June 2, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $1 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $718-720 / T. The closing price of MTBE market in Europe increased by US $3 / T compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $759-759.5/t. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by US $0.89/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf offshore price closed at US $814.37-814.72/ton (229.40-229.50 cents / gallon).

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Singapore US $718-720 / T US $1 / T

U.S.A FOB Bay 814.37-814.72 USD / T – US $0.89/t

Europe FOB ARA US $759-759.5/t US $3 / T

Crude oil continued to rise, supporting the market mentality, but the downstream improvement was limited, and the market continued to rise with insufficient momentum. Business community MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile.

In May, the market price of NBR declined slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of NBR was 21166 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 20800 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month as a whole, it fell by 1.73% compared with the beginning of the month.

Although there was little pressure on the supply side of NBR in China, and the price of NBR in Lanhua increased slightly, the demand side was still weak, and the market price of NBR fell in May. It is understood that the 15000 ton nitrile unit of Lanhua in China has been under maintenance in May, and the normal operation started at the end of this month. The pressure of nitrile supply in the market is not big, which has a certain support for the price of nitrile. In May, the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile also slightly increased by 200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 17900 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 19000 yuan / ton, 3308e reported 19900 yuan / ton. In May, India made a final anti-dumping decision on China related NBR, and the export market of NBR was slightly hindered. In addition, the low demand of domestic environmental protection inspection for some downstream construction was weak, and the main offer of some merchants was lowered at the beginning of the month.

The price of raw materials has risen substantially, and the cost has a certain support. According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of butadiene was 6787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7378 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 8.71%.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of the business community believe that the overall pressure on the supply side of NBR is not big at present, and the cost side is rising significantly, so it is expected that NBR will rise slightly in the future.

Formic acid market rose in May. According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of May 31, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 2733.33 yuan / ton, up 12.33% compared with the price at the beginning of the month (2433.33 yuan / ton), and up 5.13% year on year in a three-month cycle.

In May, the domestic formic acid market showed a strong upward trend, then slightly fell back and stabilized, showing an overall upward trend“ After the May Day holiday, there was a demand for replenishment in the downstream, the market trading atmosphere was good, and the offer of goods holders rose. With the rise of raw material prices, rising costs and export demand, the overall offer and transaction focus of formic acid market moved up. After the formic acid prices of some enterprises decreased slightly in the late ten days, the market was stable at a high level, and the downstream was mainly purchased on demand.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of formic acid of some enterprises in the near future is summarized (for reference only, the spot prices of the merchants follow the market, and the actual transaction prices of different brands, specifications and products are mainly negotiated.)

As of May 31, the reference price of upstream caustic soda was 500.00, up 9.29% compared with May 1 (457.50); On June 1, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong rose; Upstream sulfuric acid, May 31, Shandong sulfuric acid market fell; The reference price of upstream methanol on May 31 was 2672.50, up 4.39% compared with May 1 (2560.00).

Business community formic acid analysts believe that in June, the price of formic acid is mainly stable, the market is orderly, and the downstream is purchased on demand. It is expected that the formic acid market will mainly run at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

1、 Price trend

Business Club: the price of maleic anhydride increased first and then decreased in May

According to the data of business news agency, as of May 31, the average offer price of maleic anhydride was 11000.00 yuan / ton (including tax), down 2.22% from 11250.00 yuan / ton on May 1.

On May 31, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 103.62, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.21% from the highest point of 123.67 points (2017-12-26) in the cycle, and up 102.46% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In May, the market price of maleic anhydride increased first and then decreased. At present, the market is weak, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The demand procurement is the main factor. The operating rate of this month is basically stable. As of 31 December, the solid anhydride in Shandong is about 9000 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu is about 9300 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi is about 9500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei is about 9500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China is about 9600 yuan / ton.

The market is expected to be affected by the formation of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the oil price will be stronger; The demand growth expectation brought by vaccination; The US driving season will also boost demand. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.32/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.72/barrel.

At present, affected by environmental protection factors, the operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is slowing down, and the resin market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, which mainly needs to be purchased.

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of hydrogenated benzene rose first and then decreased in May. As of May 31, the average price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 7650 yuan / ton. In May 2021, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is about 75%, which is higher than that of last month. At present, the price of hydrogenated benzene is high, the profits of enterprises are improved, and the production and sales are active. The start-up and shutdown costs of hydrobenzene enterprises are lower than that of pure benzene, and most of the manufacturers arrange production according to the profit situation. The price of n-butane was basically stable, and the price in Shandong was 4300 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Business community maleic anhydride product analysts believe that: under the state’s continued regulation of raw material prices and the game of supply and demand differences, the prices of chemical products will fall, the differences between supply and demand of maleic anhydride market will increase, the downstream just need to purchase is the main, the maleic anhydride price will be weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mood will be strong. It is expected that the maleic anhydride price will mainly decline in June.

Silicon price in May

In May 2021, the price of metallic silicon (441) was strong. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of domestic silicon metal (441) was 13991.67 yuan / ton on May 28, up 7.49% compared with the average market price of 13641.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of may (5.1). The increase was mainly in the first ten days of May, and the price of silicon metal (441) remained stable in the second half of the month.

The price of 441 ᦇ silicon in different regions on the 28th is as follows:

The price range of silicon metal in Fujian is 13200-13400 yuan / ton, that in Sichuan is 13700-13900 yuan / ton, that in Kunming is 13900-13900 yuan / ton, that in Shanghai is 14600-14800 yuan / ton, and that in Tianjin port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, The price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port is 14100-14200 yuan / ton.

Operation situation of three major downstream of silicon metal

Strong operation of downstream polysilicon

In May, the polysilicon market continued to rise. Domestic polysilicon prices continue to rise, domestic manufacturers and import prices remain high.

On the supply side, in May, two large factories in Xinjiang overhauled some polysilicon equipment, and a company in Inner Mongolia reduced the production load, which affected part of the output, resulting in a relatively tight supply in the whole may. In the case of material shortage sentiment continues to heat up, the price rises naturally, the price of single crystal rises more strongly, and the price of long-term orders is locked, but the price of loose orders is generally high, further pushing up the expectation of silicon material rise. The price of domestic products is generally close to the 100000 mark, and the price of imported polysilicon continues to rise. The average transaction price exceeds US $23 / kg, and there are scattered offers to US $24 / kg.

On the demand side, as the prices of upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry continue to rise, the downstream battery manufacturers are in the dilemma of shrinking profits and even losing money, and the prices of downstream battery wafers are forced to rise, but the price rise is faced with no market and slowing down demand. In addition, on May 15, it was reported that India launched an anti-dumping investigation on photovoltaic modules produced in China and other regions, This may affect later export orders, and some overseas orders have been delayed or cancelled.

At present, the polysilicon market is still affected by the shortage of goods, and the price is mainly upward. Considering the current high point, the upward range and power may slow down.

Lower DMC consolidation

In May, the price of downstream silicone DMC was weak. In the first ten days of May, the domestic market of silicone DMC went down sharply. In the middle and late May, from the 17th, affected by the environmental protection policy, the operation rate of the monomer plant decreased, the market supply inventory was tight, and the downstream replenishment was in succession. The market delivery and investment warmed up somewhat, and the sealing phenomenon increased. A monomer plant in Shandong took the lead in increasing the factory quotation of silicone DMC. At the end of the month, the overall market trend tends to be cautious and wait-and-see, but the operating rate of silicone DMC plant may increase slightly, the overall is still low, and the inventory pressure of the plant is small. In the short term, silicone DMC market will maintain stable operation.

Downstream aluminum alloy

In May, the price of aluminum ingots retreated sharply, but it is still at a record high.

High raw materials, aluminum alloy prices are still relatively high.

Future forecast

Metal silicon is greatly affected by the overall supply and demand factors. In the near future, it is greatly affected by Yunnan’s policy. The supply is tight, and the social inventory continues to move down. It is expected that in the near future, metal silicon will mainly maintain stability and operate more strongly. In the later stage, we will continue to focus on the influence of environmental protection policy factors and the average price of social production costs on the supply side.

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable as a whole this month, with the ex factory price of 7700 yuan / ton.

Commodity “upstream hot, downstream cold” phenomenon has continued for a long time. As of today, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1025 US dollars / ton, down 80 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of this month, down 7.24%. Based on the current external price, the profit of ethylene oxide is around 300 yuan, the price of ethylene continues to decline, the support of cost side is weakened, and the room for ethylene oxide to decline is obvious. The decline of ethylene price caused the mood fluctuation of the industry, the weak market in the downstream continued, the monomer price remained stable, especially the recent rumors of ethylene oxide price reduction intensified, and the market was full of wait-and-see atmosphere. Due to the impact of new production capacity and the expected arrival of goods in June, the market of related product ethylene glycol fluctuated at a low level, which could not effectively support the regulation of ethylene oxide supply side.

At present, it is temporarily stable. If ethylene price continues to weaken, ethylene oxide may be reduced accordingly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic caprolactam price was stable on May 27. On May 27, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13950 yuan / ton, down 0.36% compared with the price at the beginning of the week.

2、 Market analysis

As of May 27, the price of caprolactam liquid in Nanjing Dongfang was 14600 yuan / ton, the 400000 ton / year unit was in normal operation, and the caprolactam unit was in normal operation. Sinopec caprolactam liquid price is 14400 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14400 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year, the unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid in Baling Petrochemical Company is 14400 yuan / T. The 300000 t / a unit is normally started and delivered by acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Shandong Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. is 13500 yuan / T, the production capacity of the factory is 300000 tons, and the plant is in normal production.

The price of local refining pure benzene is low, and the shipment is good. The market is watching Sinopec’s price guidance. Today, the price of pure benzene is 7500-7900 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the caprolactam market is weak under the dual pressure due to the decline of raw material pure benzene and insufficient downstream demand. It is expected that caprolactam market will be weak and stable in the short term.