According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8620.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The current price has decreased by 4.70% compared to the previous year, and the current price has decreased by 9.52% compared to the previous year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent decline in the potassium carbonate market has been the main trend, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, and the market price of potassium chloride continues to decline. The transaction volume in the potassium carbonate market is flat, and the shipment volume is poor, resulting in a decline in the potassium carbonate market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 8300-8500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and fallen: on May 6th, the distribution price of potassium chloride by Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. was around 3300 yuan/ton, and the prices have remained stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. During the May Day holiday, the potassium fertilizer market did not have strong transactions. After the holiday, the market is currently dominated by bearish conditions, with low demand and abundant supply of potassium fertilizer, resulting in oversupply.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has entered a low season with high inventory, and downstream purchases remain in demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 30th, the zinc price was 21374 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% compared to the zinc price of 22782 yuan/ton on April 1st. Weak demand and increased supply led to a volatile decline in zinc prices in April.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, leading to a decline in the level of manufacturing prosperity. In April, due to factors such as insufficient market demand and the rapid recovery of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter, which formed a high base, the PMI of the manufacturing industry fell below the critical point, and the economic level fell month on month. The production index and equipment manufacturing industry index are still in the expansion range, and it is expected that production and market demand will steadily rebound in the future. The economy will still maintain a recovery momentum, but the overall growth rate may be lower than market expectations, and the support for the future zinc market’s rise will weaken.

Zinc concentrate processing costs decreased in April

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in April, the zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, but the pace of decline slowed down. The enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start operations stabilized, and the expected decrease in zinc market production was still supported by the rise of the zinc market.

Zinc prices fluctuate and fall in London LME market

From the trend chart of zinc ingot prices in the London LME market, it can be seen that zinc prices in London experienced a significant fluctuation and decline in April. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market has increased, and London’s zinc ingot inventory has greatly increased. The demand in the international market remains weak, and the international zinc price has significantly fluctuated and fallen.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the economy is still weak, with zinc prices experiencing a significant fluctuation and decline in April. The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises to start construction has declined, and the supply of domestic zinc market has decreased. However, in the international market, the energy crisis in Europe has eased, and the starting of European zinc smelting enterprises has increased, and the supply of zinc market has increased. In general, the supply of zinc market is sufficient, but the economic weakness is insufficient. In the future, there is sufficient supply of zinc in the market, and the recovery on the demand side is limited. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, on April 28th, the domestic carbon black N220 quotation was 10066 yuan/ton, and the raw material price continued to decline. The cost support performance of carbon black became increasingly weak, and the domestic carbon black market declined this month.

Cost: The market price of raw material coal tar has fluctuated and declined this month. The market of high-temperature coal tar major downstream deep processing coal tar pitch products has gradually weakened. Some downstream deep processing enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand for raw materials has decreased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, downstream factories are still passive in receiving goods. Overlapping enterprises have a large inventory backlog, which depresses the market price of coal tar. In the short term, the market is still difficult to find good support, and the market is pessimistic.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of carbon black enterprises remains stable, with most carbon black enterprises maintaining normal operating levels. Some factory equipment maintenance is affected by the downward price of raw materials, and the carbon black market continues to fluctuate. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and many are bearish on the future market of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market. Because most carbon black enterprises still have some high priced raw material inventory and carbon black produced by high priced raw materials in the early stage, although the price of raw materials has bottomed out, the cost of carbon black production is still high, so most carbon black enterprises are still under cost pressure, and the business offer is relatively firm, and the downward range of carbon black market price is limited. Carbon black enters a dilemma.

In terms of downstream tire companies, the overall operating rate remains stable, but due to the weak fluctuations in carbon black prices, there is currently no significant positive trend on the market. Recently, the inventory level of finished products has been reasonable, but the demand in the terminal tire industry is weak. The enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods is generally cooled, and the market may still operate weakly.

Overall, there has been a significant decline in raw material prices, weakened support for carbon black cost prices, and intensified bearish sentiment at the end. Both supply and demand sides are dominated by bearish sentiment, and there are currently no positive signs on the market. Overall, it is expected that carbon black will operate in a weak position in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the domestic NMP market did not experience significant fluctuations in April, and the market was operating sideways. At the beginning of the month, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 18333 yuan/ton. On April 27th, the average price was 18166 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 0.91%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of April 27th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ April 27th

East China region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

Central China region/ 15500-16500 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

In April, the domestic NMP market stopped falling and stabilized, with the overall market mainly experiencing a slight decline. Due to the current NMP price falling below the cost line, factories are intentionally pushing up prices, and the cost side support is gradually strengthening, limiting the downward space for the NMP market. Downstream demand remains high, while overall construction remains low, resulting in overall high market inventory and bearish demand side constraints on the NMP market.

In April, the price of raw material BDO fluctuated and increased. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, from April 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 10500 yuan/ton to 11474 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.3% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 55.8%. The market has started at a low level, and supply has tightened, driving BDO prices to continue to rise. NMP cost support is also gradually increasing, suppressing further price declines.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from the Business Society, materials such as lithium carbonate in the lithium battery industry have recently fallen to a low level and started to stabilize. In addition, inventory has been further digested, and lithium battery production enterprises have increased their willingness to start operations. It is expected that the NMP market will rebound in the short term in May, and the probability of NMP rising will increase.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of April 20, 2023, the reference price of domestic butanone market is 8333 yuan/ton, which is 33 yuan/ton lower than that of April 15, 2023 (8366 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.40%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since April (4.1-4.26), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of April, the domestic butanone market experienced a brief upward trend as a whole. Some devices in the butanone field were shut down for maintenance, and the tight supply of butanone spot supported the narrow rise of the market. However, the overall performance of downstream demand was average, dragged down by insufficient demand volume. Starting from mid April, the center of gravity of the butanone market continued to move downwards, and the overall market continued to decline. The mentality of the butanone industry was weak, approaching the end of the month, The market is weak. As of April 26, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7800-8400 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere on the butanone market is relatively light. Although the May Day holiday is approaching, the overall stocking sentiment of the downstream of butanone is average, and new orders are mostly sold according to volume and demand. The butanone data analyst of the business company believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly characterized by narrow consolidation and operation, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of April 25, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-quality white carbon black was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black was mainly stable, and the price fluctuation was not obvious compared with the same period last week. At present, the mainstream price is about 6000 yuan/ton.

The price of white carbon black market was stable this week, with the mainstream price of about 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of the negotiation was stable. The downstream just needs to purchase mainly. The enthusiasm for stocking up was general, and the number of new orders was limited.

Chemical Index: On April 24th, the commodity price index (BPI) was 975 points, a decrease of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 27.40% compared to the highest point of 1343 points (2021-10-19) in the cycle, and an increase of 47.73% compared to the lowest point of 660 points on February 3rd, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

This week (4.17-4.24), the market for trichloromethane remained stable with minor fluctuations. According to data from Business Society, as of April 24th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2550 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from last Monday and reached a peak of 2575 yuan/ton during the cycle. The price of raw material methanol rebounded from a low level, and the cost of trichloromethane showed slight short-term support; The price of downstream refrigerant R22 has recently slightly declined, and there is a strong demand for support for chloroform, but there is no new support; The production of methane chloride has slightly decreased, and the supply of trichloromethane is still loose; The market for trichloromethane has been generally stable in the near future, and merchants have made moderate to slight adjustments in their quotations.

This week (4.17-4.24), the start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, but overall it remains loose. The Jinling Dongying device has been reduced to 50% load operation; The Jinyi device has decreased from 70% to 50% load operation.

This week (4.17-4.24), the price of raw material methanol rebounded slightly from the low point, while the cost of trichloromethane showed some short-term support. According to Business News, as of April 24th, the spot price of methanol was 2555 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.02% from last Monday’s 2530 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the total production quota of R22 in 2023 has been reduced by 19% to 181800 tons. Recently, the price of R22 has slightly declined, and there is still a strong demand for support for trichloromethane. In the later stage, as the peak season passes, support for trichloromethane will weaken again.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that although there is currently support in the demand side for trichloromethane, with the end of the later peak season, support may weaken, coupled with pressure on the supply side, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell sharply this week, from 265.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 235.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 11.32%. On weekends, prices decreased by 79.89% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 22, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 36.58, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 80.55% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 points (2022-04-13), and an increase of 16.05% from the lowest point of 31.52 points on June 6, 2019. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

The upstream market has significantly declined, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has significantly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 943.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 756.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 19.79%. Weekend prices have decreased by 79.33% year-on-year compared to the same period last year, with a significant decline in upstream prices and insufficient cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a high level, and the market price was 10357.14 yuan/ton. Weekend prices have decreased by 10.41% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market fluctuated in a narrow range, with the market price of 16950.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices decreased by 19.41% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. The downstream market is consolidating at a high level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late April, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market has recently experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market of titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream customers were generally motivated to purchase sulfuric acid. The product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, and the price of sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region has been running smoothly this week. On April 18th, the average market price in Henan region was 7825 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7875 on April 11th, with a month on month decrease of 0.63%.

quotations analysis

The market for cryolite is stable and wait-and-see, with prices of cryolite enterprises on the market mainly stabilizing. The raw material side is subject to environmental and safety requirements, and the stock is tight. Although the prices have slightly decreased in the early stage, cost support is still there. Cryolite enterprises are mainly wait-and-see, and some manufacturers adjust according to their own shipment situation. Downstream follow up as needed, and the enterprise’s shipment is relatively smooth. As of April 18, the price of ice crystals in Shandong is 7300-8600 yuan/ton, while the price of ice crystals in Henan is 7200-8800 yuan/ton.

The price trend of upstream fluorite has remained stable, with a slight increase. As of April 18, the average market price was around 3075 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% compared to April 11′s price of 3068 yuan/ton. Mining enterprises are facing safety and environmental requirements, resulting in a serious shortage of fluorite production, tight spot supply, and rapid development of downstream terminal industries. In the long run, demand support is good, and the fluorite market is consolidating and rising.

The downstream aluminum market continues to rise, with aluminum prices around 18880.00 yuan/ton on April 18th, an increase of 2.65% compared to 18393.33 yuan/ton on April 11th. The terminal industry has made good progress, with an increase in downstream demand and an increase in social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, leading to an upward trend in aluminum prices.

Future Market Forecast

The stock of raw materials is tight, and cryolite enterprises are operating at low loads. The inventory of manufacturers is not under pressure. Upstream support for cryolite is good, and the prices of enterprises are running smoothly. Downstream follow up on demand, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is expected that the short-term cryolite market will operate steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, after April, the demand for terminal printing and paper industries was poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market was weak and declining. On April 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 876 yuan/ton. On April 18th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 793 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.51%.

Negative sentiment suppresses the weak decline of hydrogen peroxide market

After the Qingming Festival, the demand in the terminal paper printing industry decreased, the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased decreased, and the transactions in the hydrogen peroxide market were average. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers reopened their devices, and the supply of hydrogen peroxide increased. The market gradually declined, and prices continued to decline slightly. On April 11th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was 860 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 850 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 30 yuan/ton. The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Anhui region is 850 yuan/ton, and the price remains unchanged.

In the middle of the year, bearish factors remained, demand remained poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market continued to expand its decline. As of April 18th, the price of hydrogen peroxide in Shandong region has dropped by 60 yuan/ton, at 800 yuan/ton; The average market price of hydrogen peroxide in Hebei region is 730 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 80 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is 850 yuan/ton, which remains stable.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that terminal demand is poor and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to weaken in the future.