1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol was temporarily stable this week. The average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China this week is 10600.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices decreased by 39.54% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. On April 16th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 51.08, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 18.65% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market was slightly stable this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price was temporarily stable this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week is 7700.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices decreased by 47.26% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. The upstream raw material market price was adjusted at a high level, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future prospects

In late April, the market trend of new pentanediol may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA6 market has experienced significant stability and slight fluctuations, with various spot prices fluctuating and fluctuating. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 14th, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 14100 yuan/ton, a decrease of+1.99% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

It can be seen from the figure above that the price of caprolactam market rose this week. The price of raw material pure benzene rebounded in the early stage, and cost support strengthened. In addition, the load of caprolactam industry is expected to decline, and the market supply pressure has eased. Downstream procurement is just needed, and cautious operation is the main focus. It is expected that caprolactam will run at a high price in the short term, and the support for PA6 is acceptable.

On the supply side:

This week, the overall load of domestic PA6 production enterprises was around 73%, with a narrow increase overall. The market supply is stable, the inventory position is on the high side, the supplier’s support for spot goods is average, and the factory price pricing is narrow and loose.

In terms of demand: In the downstream sector, the overall load of the weaving and spinning industries is sideways, but the consumption of raw materials is not good, and there is generally a certain amount of raw material inventory that needs to be digested. The wait-and-see atmosphere on the site is heavy, and the trading volume is light. The overall demand for PA6 chips is average.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PA6 market saw a narrow decline. The load of domestic polymerization plants has steadily increased, and the supply has maintained an adequate level. On the demand side, there is a slight weakness, with stocking leaning towards maintaining production. Caprolactam operates at a high price, and PA6 cost end support is acceptable. The market is generally balanced, and it is expected that the PA6 market may undergo a narrow adjustment in the short term.

Chart of Polyformaldehyde Market Price Trend

Recently, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has fluctuated and consolidated. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5325.00 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 5262.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%, a month on month decrease of 2.32%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.21%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is fluctuating and declining, with the main focus on the consolidation of raw material coal market. The cost side lacks positive support, and the performance of spot gas buying is weak, resulting in a weak consolidation of methanol market. The factory quotation of enterprises in the central and eastern parts of Shandong is stable at 2480-2530 yuan/ton; The delivery price for Dongying and surrounding areas is around 2430 yuan/ton. The mainstream production of methanol in the southern Shandong market is around 2420 yuan/ton; The delivery price in Linyi area is around 2450-2470 yuan/ton.

Recently, the methanol market has been weak and declining, with poor cost support. Downstream demand is unlikely to change significantly in the short term, and analysts from the business company Polyformaldehyde expect prices to decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated this month. On March 1st, the price was 7450 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 7570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in early March, the Saudi side stated that the OPEC+2 million barrels per day production reduction agreement would be implemented until the end of this year. The tight global idle capacity and supply uncertainty related to the Russia Ukraine war have limited the downward space for oil prices. The market is generally optimistic about Asia’s expectations for crude oil demand, and the expectation of a rebound in the demand side of the crude oil market is constantly strengthening. The oil price is strengthening, and the spot supply of toluene is tight, while the price of toluene remains high.

In late March, against the backdrop of the global economic recession, the macro risks brought about by the banking problems in Silicon Valley led to a significant decline in crude oil prices. Affected by the economic recession environment, the market as a whole was still in a state of panic. With the tightening of liquidity and the expected adjustment of crude oil supply and demand structure caused by this risk aversion sentiment, the overall operating range of oil prices shifted downward, and the basic performance of the toluene market was poor, with prices operating in a weak state.

The crude oil price fluctuated in March, showing a “V” shaped trend. On March 31, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in Shangshang Society was 72.97 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -3.58% compared to the beginning of this month (75.68 US dollars per barrel). The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.59 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.42% compared to the beginning of this month (82.04 US dollars per barrel).

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices have remained stable this month, with a promising increase at the end of the month. The overall price in March remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further improved, and the price of PX market rose strongly.

In terms of OX, the price of OX has shown a ladder like upward trend this month, with a price of 8300 yuan/ton on March 1st and 8600 yuan/ton on March 31st, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 3.61% compared to the beginning of the month. Upstream mixed xylene prices are fluctuating and stabilizing, while OX costs are stabilizing; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of OX market is weakening, and downward pressure still exists.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fluctuated positively in the first half of this month and negatively in the second half. On March 1st, the price was 8472.6 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 8410.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market continues to decline, with a light trading atmosphere and significant sales pressure from the main operating units at the end of the month, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, with the easing of concerns about the recent economic recession and the expected increase in supply tightening, oil prices have emerged from the low levels caused by banking issues and are in the stage of recovery and repair. Short term crude oil fundamentals still have support, but demand growth is limited, and the upward path is still hindered. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to be mainly recovered from fluctuations next month. As the weather warms up, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, gasoline demand gradually increases. In addition, with the increase in gasoline exports in April, the market is supportive and there is some room for growth in the gasoline market. The recent strong rise in PX and OX markets has driven the price of mixed xylene market to rise. It is expected that the advantages of mixed xylene will remain unchanged in the short term and will continue to operate at a high level in April. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell in March

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, the zinc price was 22506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60% compared to the zinc price of 23346 yuan/ton on March 1. The market demand rebounded less than expected, and zinc prices fluctuated and fell in March.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 51.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. However, the PMI has decreased, the expansion trend has slowed down, and the economic recovery in March was less than expected. With the accelerated recovery of the domestic economic cycle, production and market demand have steadily rebounded, and the economy has maintained a recovery momentum. The pace of economic expansion is expected to accelerate, and the demand for zinc in the future is expected to rebound.

Zinc concentrate processing costs decreased in March

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in March, the zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start operations decreased, the expected production of zinc in the market decreased, and the expected supply of zinc in the market decreased.

According to inventory statistics in the Shanghai futures market, the zinc content in the Shanghai futures market in March. The inventory of zinc ingots has significantly decreased, the supply of zinc in the market has decreased, and the support from the rising zinc market remains.

From the statistical table of zinc ingot trading volume and transaction amount in the Shanghai futures market, it can be seen that the trading volume and transaction amount of zinc ingots in March decreased by 26.25% and 35.47% year-on-year, and increased by 23.74% and 20.39% month on month. The month on month increase indicates economic recovery, and the enthusiasm for trading in the zinc market has rebounded; The significant year-on-year decline indicates that the economic recovery is not as expected, and the demand for zinc remains weak.

>Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, PMI is still in the expansion range, and there is still expectation of a rebound in demand in the zinc market. In March, trading volume and transaction amount both fell sharply year-on-year, and the economic recovery was less than expected. The demand in the zinc market remains weak; The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to decline,. Both supply and demand are weak, with limited support for the rise of the zinc market. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, this week (March 25-31) maintained a slight upward trend, with polyester FDY rising 3.07%, POY rising 2.12%, and polyester DTY rising 2.92%. Currently, for mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation for polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7550-7750 yuan/ton, the quotation for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8900-9500 yuan/ton, and the quotation for polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market Unit: yuan/ton

Commodity/ March 25th/ March 31st/ Up and down/ Year-on-year increase and decrease

Polyester DTY/ 8898./ 9158./ 2.92%./ -4.25%

Polyester POY/ 7465./ 7623./ 2.12%./ -3.09%

Polyester FDY/ 8144./ 8394./ 3.07%./ -2.46%

In the crude oil market, the US commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, and the export of crude oil from the Kurdistan region of Iraq was blocked. The oil market gained significant support. As of March 30, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.37/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.60/barrel. There is not much circulation of goods and it is estimated to destock in April. PTA prices will continue to rise this week. Currently, the average market price in East China is 6404 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.85%.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving starts have remained around 67%, with no significant decline yet. Currently, orders for out of season fabrics have been placed in succession, and domestic textile foreign trade orders have also been placed in small quantities. However, the overall market order volume is still lower than the level of the same period last year. And as the price of raw materials continues to rise, the pressure on losses increases, and confidence in the future market is generally insufficient. Most downstream factories stock up until around the Tomb Sweeping Festival, and some purchased raw materials are readily available.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the tight supply of raw material PX is expected to continue until late April and even May. PTA has a strong upward momentum, so there is still good support for polyester fiber costs. However, the downstream market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly placing orders cautiously, which forms a certain degree of repression against the rising trend.

According to data monitoring by Business News Agency, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate fell sharply in March. On March 30, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 224600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41.3% compared to the average price of 382600 yuan/ton on March 1. The average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate on March 30 was 259000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35.89% compared to the average price of 404000 yuan/ton on March 1.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline significantly in March. On the supply side, due to the rapid growth rate of China’s lithium industry in 2022, the production of lithium carbonate remained stable in the first quarter of 2023. The gradual warming of temperatures in places such as Qinghai Salt Lake has also led to a sustained increase in domestic lithium carbonate production and a high inventory level. In addition, most lithium salt factories this month mainly signed long-term orders, and the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline. In the atmosphere of buying up rather than falling, market inquiries were relatively light. With the end of the first quarter, some lithium salt factories are facing increased shipping pressure, resulting in low price selling in the market, accelerating the decline in spot prices.

On the demand side, the impact of the current cost side on lithium salt prices has weakened, and the demand side is the dominant factor. In 2023, the sales of new energy vehicles in the downstream market significantly decreased, resulting in a significant discount in the demand for lithium batteries, which led to a decline in the demand for lithium carbonate raw materials. Due to the weak demand in the downstream market, it is difficult for the market supply and demand relationship to support spot prices. Subsequently, the decline in the price of lithium carbonate continued to expand, and the actual transaction was not optimistic. However, the overall recovery of the terminal market was still less than expected, and overall downstream demand remained low and relatively weak.

The downstream lithium hydroxide market fell, and lithium carbonate continued its downward trend in early March. The cost faced with insufficient support for lithium hydroxide, the supply side production started relatively stable, and the market supply was relatively sufficient. However, the demand side slowly recovered, and the downstream follow-up was less than expected. The market atmosphere was weak, and the company’s quotation declined. In the middle of the year, there was a lack of support on the cost side, and the demand side was weak. Manufacturers mainly delivered long-term orders and clinched deals. Current market transactions were limited, and lithium hydroxide prices fell again. In the second half of the year, the support for the cost side weakened again, and the market purchasing atmosphere was depressed. Under the mentality of downstream enterprises not buying up or down, the market actually traded poorly, and the decline in lithium hydroxide continued.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream fell, but the inflection point did not appear in March as the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline; The price of iron phosphate fell, driving the cost of iron and lithium to continue to decline as a whole. However, there are fewer new orders in the lithium iron phosphate market, resulting in significant shipping pressure, and due to the weakness of the terminal market, the market recovery expectation is prolonged, with no significant short-term increase.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business News, the current lithium carbonate market remains in a state of oversupply. With the continuous lowering of prices, there is little left for procurement, except for purchases that are just needed. In order to increase shipments, lithium salt factories and traders have continuously lowered their quotations, and it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to decline in the short term.

According to data monitoring by the Business News Agency, the acrylonitrile market declined slightly in March. As of March 29, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10225 yuan/ton, down 2.62% from 10500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fell, while the cost of acrylonitrile declined; Downstream ABS and polyacrylamide markets are weak, but on-demand procurement still has some rigid support for acrylonitrile; The fundamentals were not significantly positive, while the price of acrylonitrile was weak and slightly lower.

The operating rate of acrylonitrile in China is between 60% and 70%.

In March, the price of raw material propylene fell sharply, while the cost of acrylonitrile declined. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of March 29, the domestic propylene price was 7096 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from 7522 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, downstream market prices fell and the market was weak, with weak support for acrylonitrile. Downstream ABS prices have fallen, with industrial unit starts around 80% to 90%, and demand based procurement support for acrylonitrile is generally moderate; Domestic nitrile rubber starts to fluctuate slightly, and its support for acrylonitrile is stable and weak. The price of polyacrylamide continues to decline, providing weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future Market Forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from the Business Agency believe that on the one hand, the cost of acrylonitrile is declining, and on the other hand, the supply and demand of acrylonitrile are currently deadlocked; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will weaken and consolidate in the later stage.

According to the bulk list data of Business News Agency, as of March 28, the average price quoted by formic acid companies was 3875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.39% compared to the price on March 1.

In March, the market price of industrial grade 85% formic acid in China was strong and operating. In the first ten days, there was some support for the cost side, with the formic acid operating rate of around 75%, and the supply side recovering. However, the industry was collectively optimistic about the future, with prices rising slightly, and the market atmosphere was active. In the middle of the year, there is little impact on the cost side, with the market mainly relying on inventory digestion, while downstream customers mainly purchase on demand, with the market being stable. In the second half of the year, the cost support was acceptable, the operating rate decreased compared to the previous period, and the market supply contracted, supporting this price increase. The downstream follow-up was acceptable, and the market transactions were orderly.

Cost: For upstream sulfuric acid, on March 27, the reference price for sulfuric acid was 256.67, up 1.32% compared to March 1 (253.33); For upstream methanol, on February 24th and March 27th, the reference price of methanol was 2581.67, a decrease of 5.63% compared to March 1st (2735.83).

According to the formic acid analysts of the Business Society, the current cost side support is acceptable, the supply side support still exists, and the demand side is stable. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may mainly operate at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the data from the Commodity List of the Business News Agency, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell sharply in March. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1283.33 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1223.33 yuan/ton, down 4.68%. The current price has fallen 16.07% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

In March, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell. As can be seen from the above figure, formaldehyde has mainly fluctuated slightly in the past three months, with three weeks of decline this month. As of March 27, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1160-1280 yuan/ton. In March, formaldehyde manufacturers started normal operations, but demand from downstream plate factories was weak, formaldehyde shipments were poor, inventories continued to be high, and the formaldehyde market gradually declined.

Upstream methanol situation: In March, the domestic methanol market fluctuated slightly, and the overall coal market was temporarily stable in terms of cost. As the “peak season winter” draws to a close, the inventory of terminal power plants is steadily cashing in under the long-term agreement, and the power plants maintain the procurement of coal in the just needed market. The cost of methanol is mixed. Demand side, downstream acetic acid: Sinopec Great Wall expected maintenance, acetic acid demand may decrease; Downstream dimethyl ether: Yima Kaixiang plans to stop for 20 days on March 26, with demand for dimethyl ether decreasing; Downstream chloride: Shandong Dongyue is expected to stop for maintenance, and Luxi Chemical is expected to have a reduced load, resulting in a decrease in chloride demand. The methanol demand side is temporarily negative.

The recent narrow decline in the domestic methanol market is mainly due to poor cost support. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society predict that the recent weak decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will be the main trend.