This week, the domestic EVA market continued to be weak and continued to decline. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 20666.67 yuan/ton on October 16 and 20200.00 yuan/ton on October 24, with a decline of 2.24% in the week and 23.58% compared with the same period last year.

The domestic EVA market continued to weaken this week. The bad news was obvious in the week. Petrochemical enterprises lowered the ex factory price twice, and the supply of goods in the auction fell sharply, bringing significant pressure on the market. In addition, the market demand is general. There is no obvious change in the demand for photovoltaic materials, and the demand for foaming materials is poor. The downstream multi-dimensional companies need to purchase rigid materials, and the market trading atmosphere is light. Businessmen are pessimistic, and prices are mainly lowered.

In general, the market has no good support, the factory price of petrochemical enterprises continues to lead the decline, the terminal demand is limited, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, and the market trading and investment atmosphere is difficult to improve. It is expected that the domestic EVA market price will continue to decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, the POM market fluctuated in the middle of October, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell in an arc. As of October 22, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection molding sample enterprises of the business community was about 13700 yuan/ton, up or down+0.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain.

Upstream formaldehyde market fell, and POM cost end support weakened. In terms of industry load, the overall load of domestic POM industry enterprises remains high, and the supply of goods is abundant. Next week, individual enterprises have maintenance plans, and the supply of goods is expected to be tightened. There is strong competition on the market. After some petrochemical plants raised their ex factory prices this week, the market acceptance was poor, causing a certain decline. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is generally restricted by profit and other factors, and the location is general. In terms of purchasing, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the supply of high priced goods is relatively opposed. At the same time, there is an early stock of goods, and the overall demand is weak. This week’s in market trading is dominated by small orders. It is difficult for high price goods to be shipped. The merchants talk about it alone, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that: this week, the POM market fluctuated, the upstream formaldehyde market fell, and the POM cost support weakened. The load of POM industry is high, and there is pressure on the supply side. The demand follow-up of downstream enterprises has not improved, and downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory and purchase scattered small orders. According to the news, there is still a plan to increase the ex factory price of petrochemical plants. With the load of an enterprise decreasing next week, it is expected that the decline of POM price may be limited in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, on October 20, the domestic methanol port in East China was 2898 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous working day and down 28.66% year on year. On October 20, the methanol futures of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose in shock. The main contract MA2301 closed at 2699 yuan/ton in late trading, up 45 or 1.70% from the previous trading day.

Crude oil runs in shock, and coal price is strong to support production costs. In terms of spot goods, the supply in the domestic mainland market increased, and the port market continued to de stock mainly. The main price body of the domestic methanol market was stable, with some narrow adjustments, but the adjustment range was not large, and the mainstream transactions were stable.

The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly arranged.

According to the data of the business society, the recent market situation of chloroform continued to rise. As of October 18, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 4325 yuan/ton, up 6.13% from 4075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Although the cost is lower after the festival, the price of trichloromethane is on the rise supported by demand.

Since October, the commencement of domestic methane chloride has remained at a high level, with little overall change. The supply of chloroform is basically stable, but due to domestic demand and the export order of a factory in Shandong, the inventory of chloroform in the region is tight.

Since October, the spot price of methanol has declined significantly, and the cost support of chloroform has weakened. According to the business community, as of October 18, the spot price of methanol was 2800 yuan/ton, down 7.05% from 3012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the cycle was 3246 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the construction of downstream refrigerant, pharmaceutical and other industries is generally stable; On the other hand, Jinjiuyinshi printing and dyeing, ink and paint and other industries started to improve, and the demand was supported by chloroform. In addition, the export order of chloroform of an enterprise in Shandong Province was affected, and the supply of goods in the region continued to be tight, pushing up the price of chloroform.

Analysts of methane chloride data from the business community believe that, on the one hand, the cost of supply easing is lower, which has a negative impact on chloroform; On the other hand, the downstream demand of increased exports just needs to be supported, and the support for chloroform continues to be excessive. Under the long and short game, it is expected that the rising rate of chloroform market will gradually decrease in the later period.

The domestic bisphenol A market continued to decline in the opening of the new week. As the price dropped significantly at the end of the auction in the afternoon, the market discussion atmosphere became more and more cold. The mainstream offer was 13200-13300 yuan/ton, which was 500 yuan/ton lower than last weekend. If there was a real price in the East China market, it could still be discussed. With the stable raw materials, bisphenol A fell again, and the profit narrowed again, which was expected to be about 900 yuan/ton, the two downstream epoxy resin/PC also showed a significant downward trend, Spot trading on the market is cold, and the current market is hardly favorable. It is expected that BPA will continue to fall today.

The offer of bisphenol A in domestic mainstream market as of the last trading day:

Region, quotation, rise and fall

East China, 13200., – 500

Shandong Province, 13300., – 500

After the festival, the domestic cobalt price rose weakly

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 17, the cobalt price was 356100 yuan/ton, up 2.83% from 346300 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. After the festival, enterprises increased their stock replenishment, the cobalt price stabilized after a small increase, the domestic cobalt market demand fell back, the international cobalt price fell in shock, which was bad for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price stabilized after a small increase.

New energy vehicle market

According to the data of China Automobile Association, in September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 755000 and 708000, up 1.1 times and 93.9% year on year, respectively, with a market share of 27.1%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 4.717 million and 4.567 million, up 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively year on year, with a market share of 23.5%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy enterprises increased significantly. The export of new energy vehicles was 50000, down 40.3% month on month and more than doubled year on year. Under the continuous effect of the policy of stabilizing the economy and promoting consumption, the production and sales of automobiles in the fourth quarter will continue to maintain a rapid growth, new energy automobiles and automobile exports will continue to enjoy a good momentum of development, the growth of new energy automobiles will exceed expectations, and the demand for cobalt will increase.

MB cobalt price fell in October

It can be seen from the MB cobalt price trend chart that the MB cobalt price in October failed to continue the rising trend in September. After the festival, the MB cobalt price fell slightly, the international cobalt market fell, the domestic cobalt market was negative, and the support for the rise of the cobalt market weakened.

Future outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of the business community, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles have risen significantly, and the expectation of a warmer demand in the cobalt market has increased. The cobalt market has some support for growth, but the international cobalt price has fallen, and the support for the rise in the cobalt market has weakened. In general, the upward momentum of the cobalt market still exists, but the continuous rise of the cobalt price is not supported enough. It is expected that the cobalt price will stabilize in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG was 6670 yuan/ton on October 8, and 6390 yuan/ton on October 14. Domestic LNG prices fell 4.20% this week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Domestic LNG prices rose first and then fell this week. On October 8, domestic LNG prices began to rise to this Tuesday. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. Transportation is limited in some regions due to the epidemic situation, while liquid prices in other regions are higher, with obvious regional differences. On Wednesday, domestic LNG prices began to fall, and the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak. The epidemic situation has a great impact on upstream shipment, and the market continues to fall. In the afternoon of Friday, the feed gas auction of PetroChina Direct Supply Fluid Plant was dominated by the wait-and-see LNG market, and the market stopped falling temporarily. The final auction price was 3.34-3.54 yuan/ton, with an average price of 0.16 yuan/m3 compared with the previous period, and a trading volume of 80 million m3. As of October 14, Inner Mongolia offered 6250-6550 yuan/ton, Shaanxi 6650-7060 yuan/ton, Shanxi 6850-7300 yuan/ton, Ningxia 6560-6780 yuan/ton, Hebei 7500-7900 yuan/ton, Henan 7250-8000 yuan/ton, Sichuan 6650-6900 yuan/ton, and Shandong 7850-7950 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic LNG on October 14 was 6390 yuan/ton, 444 yuan/ton lower than the price of 6834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decline of 6.49%, and 4.82% lower than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that this week, due to the increase of downstream replenishment after the festival and the obstruction of epidemic control and transportation in some regions, the LNG market has improved first and then slowed down. On Friday afternoon, the bidding price of direct feed gas from PetroChina rose slightly, and the demand for downstream replenishment decreased. It is expected that the price of LNG will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6166 yuan/ton on October 8, and 6200 yuan/ton on October 13. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffins rose 0.54%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin rose slightly this week, and the domestic operating rate was about 60%. The raw material liquid chlorine is the main player in the market, the overall price of raw material liquid wax drops, and the cost side runs in shock. At present, the market atmosphere of chlorinated paraffins is light and the trading volume is average. As of October 13, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui Province was about 6600 yuan/ton, that in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the market price of liquid wax fell this week, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the market price of liquid chlorine rose this week. Due to the strong price of liquid chlorine, chlorinated paraffins manufacturers are mainly very expensive, and they are cautious about the raw material market.

3、 Future market forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community believe that the trend of liquid chlorine as the raw material of chlorinated paraffin is upward in the near future, and the cost has certain support. The demand for chlorinated paraffins in the field is not good, and the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the demand side is not good. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffins will operate stably in the short term under the downturn of market trading and investment.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 12, 2022, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price reference of the silicone DMC market in the mainstream regions of China is 17580 yuan/ton, which is 620 yuan/ton lower than the price on October 2, 2022 (18200 yuan/ton), a decrease of 3.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic silicone DMC market is in a weak downward trend after returning from the National Day holiday in October. Two days before coming back after the festival, Shandong Dachang silicone DMC quoted 17500 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as several days before the festival. The news of silicone DMC on the market was relatively calm, and the market was mainly consolidated. On the 10th, some silicone DMC suppliers with higher prices before the festival started the profit giving shipping mode, and the actual order can be negotiated about 300-500 yuan/ton. 11. On the 12th, the weak decline trend of the silicone DMC market continued. The quotation of Shandong Dachang silicone DMC was lowered to 17300 yuan/ton, and other monomer plants and suppliers in the market continued to hold discussion space. As of October 12, the market price of domestic silicone DMC is around 17300-17500 yuan/ton, and some high quotations are 18000 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, after the National Day holiday, the domestic metal silicon (product name: 441 #) market situation was stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of metal silicon was 21250 yuan/ton on October 11, a decrease of 0.05% compared with October 1 (21260.00).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the overall stock preparation of the middle and lower reaches of the organosilicon DMC is still cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The contradiction between supply and demand in the field is obvious. It is heard that some monomer devices will have a reduced maintenance plan in the near future. The supply side will actively ship, while the demand side will continue to stock up just in time. The organosilicon DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market will be mainly weak, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8666.67 yuan/ton as of October 11, up 1.17% from October 8, up 10.64% from September 11, and down 23.53% year on year in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (10.8-10.11), the acrylic acid market has risen steadily. After the festival, the market price of raw propylene rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the load of some units was limited. In addition, the downstream buyer was more active, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation was steadily rising. The downstream was cautious and wait-and-see after the price increase, and the procurement was mainly just needed.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7780.60 on October 10, up 2.1% compared with October 1 (7620.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from the business community believe that the current raw material propylene market is strong, the cost support is still strong, the supply and demand side procurement is mainly just in demand, and the market transaction is moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.