1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 10th, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 185983.33 yuan/ton, down 2.71% from the previous trading day and up 29.39% year on year.

The rising interest rate increase helped the US dollar, and Rennie closed 1.45% lower the next week. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase is approaching step by step, which makes investors worry that the global economy is in recession. Influenced by macro sentiment, the nickel market is under pressure, the inventory of Lunni is rebounding, and refined nickel is largely replaced by nickel intermediates. Poor market demand will lead to excess nickel supply. The fundamentals of nickel supply and demand did not change much during the holiday, and the overall situation was dominated by macro changes. The domestic pre festival replenishment has reduced the low level of nickel and stainless steel stocks. After the festival, we will pay attention to the willingness of downstream customers to take more goods. Ferronickel import supply is loose, and domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. With regard to the future market, nickel demand is driven by new energy batteries, and the improvement of downstream stainless steel demand depends on the promotion of Baojiao Building. In October, nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a weak pattern of shock.

Influenced by the epidemic situation of New Coronary Pneumonia, the use of protective clothing and masks has soared, and the price of spandex has risen since August 2020 due to the expansion of the application field of spandex. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the 40D specification has risen from 31100 yuan/ton to 83750 yuan/ton in August 2021, an increase of 169.29%, a new high in nearly a decade. Subsequently, due to the weakening of downstream demand and the increase of polyurethane fiber supply, it entered a rapid decline channel from the fourth quarter of 2021, and fell back to the level two years ago by August 2022.

However, in September, the polyurethane fiber market stopped falling and recovered. As of September 30, the average market price was 35000 yuan/ton, up 7.03% from the beginning of the month. Due to the firm BDO price, it has formed a good support for the cost of polyurethane raw material PTMEG. In addition, the terminal demand of “Jinjiu” has warmed up, which alleviates the inventory pressure of the polyurethane factory. The inventory of individual specifications and models is tight, and the current market as a whole shows signs of improvement.

High cost and tight spot are good supports. Traders are reluctant to sell and pull up the price. The polyurethane raw material market is on the rise. In September, PTMEG prices were raised after consolidation, and the industry started at a low level of 4.9%. With the rise of BDO prices on the cost side, the factory’s intention to raise prices was strengthened. As of the end of the month, the domestic PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) market negotiation evaluation was 18000-19000 yuan/ton, and some specifications were not reported. The pure MDI market experienced a strong pull up, and the rise slowed down at the end of the month. At present, the reference price of the local market is 20200-20500 yuan/ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Driven by the price rise of spandex, the terminal consumption of superimposed “Golden Ninth” has gradually entered the traditional peak season. Orders have been placed in autumn and winter, releasing the demand for staged replenishment. In terms of construction, the construction of round machine and wrapped yarn in Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province started at 30% to 50%; The starting level of the round knitting machine market in Jiangsu is 3-4%, and the starting level of the wrapped yarn and warp knitting market is 5-6.5%; Guangdong started cautiously, with an overall level of 3.5-6.50%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw materials will still rise slightly, and the cost side support remains. However, the demand for replenishment in the downstream terminal market may be overdrawn in advance before the festival, and after the festival, it will remain just in need to follow up and be cautious. Superimposed new production capacity will also form a certain resistance to price rise. It is expected that the price of spandex in October will increase in a narrow range.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong rose this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 1336.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the weekend was 1403.33 yuan/ton, up 4.99%. The current price rose 9.64% month on month, and the current price fell 23.45% year on year.

formaldehyde

The price of formaldehyde market in Shandong Province rose this week. From the figure above, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market in the past two months has been dominated by a small upward trend, and this week’s rise has expanded. As of October 8, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1380-1430 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen sharply, with strong cost support. The demand of the downstream panel plants is general, and the purchase is still in demand. The transaction in the formaldehyde market is fair. The manufacturers normally ship, and the market continues to rise driven by the cost.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has risen recently. Some traders offer no goods. The price of coal is firm, raw materials support the methanol market, and there is a strong intention to prepare downstream goods before the festival. There is a slight difference between regions. Some regions are short of supply and have strong demand. Some regions have sufficient supply and general demand. The trend of methanol market is slightly different between regions.

This week, the methanol market continued to rise, and the cost level remained high. Driven by the rising cost, formaldehyde manufacturers led the market to rise in order to make profits. At present, the operating rate of formaldehyde manufacturers has risen, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Downstream plate plants maintain just need to purchase. The market transaction is general, and the formaldehyde market mainly rises with the rising cost.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has increased greatly, and the procurement of downstream wood panel plants has maintained a strong demand. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the recent increase of formaldehyde prices in Shandong was mainly due to shock.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell sharply this month, from 4633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 12.23%. The factory price of potassium chloride in China is temporarily stable. The factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this month is 4480.00 yuan/ton. It is reported that potassium chloride in the salt lake may fall by more than 1000 yuan in October. On September 30, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 107.02, unchanged from yesterday, 26.06% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 10.66% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now) (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this month: the ex factory quotation of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 4480 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, a drop of 400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4200 yuan/ton, a drop of 650 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, a drop of 650 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3800-4000 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this month, from 9475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9375.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.06%, 17.55% higher than the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6525.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 5.51%, 18.43% higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of October may slightly fluctuate, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was stable, and the new price was implemented in October, or fell sharply. The price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is weakened, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand procurement is dominant. In the future, the price of potassium chloride may fall in shock.

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell first and then rose this month. The price of hydrochloric acid fell from 163.33 yuan/ton on September 1 to 153.3 yuan/ton on September 10, a decline of 6.12%. Later, it rose to 166.67 yuan/ton on September 24, up 8.70%. The price at the end of the month fell 43.27% year-on-year.

On September 29, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 43.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.19% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 143.94% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support improved and downstream procurement weakened

Domestic hydrochloric acid market in September

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market has risen sharply, giving better support to hydrochloric acid. The price of liquid chlorine in Dongming Petrochemical increased from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 450 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. The downstream ammonium chloride market declined slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride fell from 1145.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1012.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 11.57%, 9.19% YoY compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 2095.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2043.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.45%, 8.77% higher than the same period last year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of October, the market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly. Although the upstream liquid chlorine market rose sharply and the cost support was good, the downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The analysts of the business association believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3400 yuan/ton on September 1, and 3150 yuan/ton on September 28. The market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 7.35% this month.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 1 was 4350 yuan/ton, and on September 28, the average price of 64% diammonium phosphate on September 28 was 4050 yuan/ton. The market price of diammonium phosphate fell by 6.9% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The overall trend of monoammonium phosphate price fell this month, and the market rose slightly at the end of the month. In the first ten days of September, the demand for monoammonium phosphate was poor, and the downstream procurement was mainly on demand, and the price of monoammonium phosphate fell. In the middle of September, the monoammonium started to operate in a small amplitude of vibration and consolidation until the end of the month. As the price of raw sulfur continues to rise, the cost support is good. At the end of the month, the delivery direction of monoammonium is good, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, and the price of monoammonium rises slightly. As of September 28, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei was 2800-2950 yuan/ton, that in Anhui was about 3050 yuan/ton, and that in Sichuan was 2900-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiable.

The overall price trend of diammonium phosphate fell this month, and the market rose slightly at the end of the month. In the first half of September, the downstream demand of diammonium chloride was insufficient, and the price was lowered one after another for the purpose of digesting inventory. The market was weak. In the second half of September, diammonium chloride was reorganized and operated in a volatile manner, with good market trading and investment. Downstream purchases were made on demand, new orders increased, and prices fluctuated in a narrow range. As of September 28, 64% of diammonium chloride in Hubei had quoted 3350-3500 yuan/ton, 64% of diammonium chloride in Guizhou had quoted about 3800 yuan/ton, and 64% of diammonium chloride in Yunnan had quoted 3800-4200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction was negotiated.

Phosphorus ore as raw material. In September, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore was slightly down, and the price of some mining enterprises was slightly down by 10-20 yuan/ton. The terminal demand is average, which affects the mentality of the industry, and the overall market atmosphere is weaker than that at the end of August. In the middle and late September, the domestic phosphorus ore market was generally stable and consolidated. The supply in the phosphate rock yard is still tight, with less spot circulation. Some mining enterprises mainly implement early orders, and supply more pre orders. Therefore, the supply side continues to give some support to the phosphate rock market. As of September 28, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China is around 1064 yuan/ton.

Raw sulfur. Sulfur prices in East China rose sharply this month. On the downstream side, the sulphuric acid market was sorted up, and the factory actively prepared goods before the festival, and the price was raised. The ammonium phosphate market is operating steadily, the downstream market is improving, the demand for sulfur procurement is increasing, the port market is operating strongly, and the carrier supports the market operation to boost the domestic sulfur market. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province prepares goods downstream before the festival, and the enterprise’s shipment is smooth, and the quotation is raised. As of September 28, the sulfur price of refinery enterprises in Shandong Province has been raised. The mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1300-1500 yuan/ton, and the range has been increased by 30 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1350-1450 yuan/ton, and the maximum price is increased by 30 yuan/ton.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the current trend of ammonium phosphate market is consolidating. The trend of raw sulfur is good, the cost support is strong, and the manufacturer sells at a high price. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the phosphate fertilizer market is steadily promoted in autumn. It is expected that the market of ammonium phosphate will be stable in the short term, mainly with small fluctuations.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises as of September 27 was 481666.66 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of September 1, 1.40% higher than that of August 27, 1.76% higher than that of the same period in three months, and 189.58% higher than that of the same period last year.

In September, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market ran at a high level. In the first half of the month, the upstream lithium carbonate price rose, and the supply side increased compared with the previous period. However, the manufacturer mainly made up long orders, and the spot supply was tight. The downstream inquiry procurement was active. With the rise of lithium carbonate and the support of supply and demand, the focus of lithium hydroxide market negotiations was high. In the second half of the month, the support from upstream lithium carbonate is still strong. Large factories give priority to the delivery of long-term orders. Downstream stock procurement has increased, and the demand side has increased. The lithium hydroxide market atmosphere is positive under multiple supports.

On September 26, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate in the upstream business community was 498000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared with September 1 (483000.00 yuan/ton). On September 26, the benchmark price of battery grade lithium carbonate in the business community was 514000.00 yuan/ton, up 3.01% compared with September 1 (499000.00 yuan/ton).

Lithium hydroxide analysts from the business community believe that the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is high, the support for lithium hydroxide still exists, and the supply side support is fair. The demand for just needed goods in the downstream is increasing. It is expected that the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

At the beginning of the week, the on-site resources of the market were still tight, the port inventory fell to 14000 tons, some factories continued to limit shipments, the on-site spot resources were further tight, the holders were reluctant to sell obviously, the terminal just needed to follow up with inquiries, and the pre holiday replenishment was nearing the end.

The offer of phenol in various markets nationwide is as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China., 10850., 150

Shandong, 10980., 50

Around Yanshan, 10900., 50

South China, 10900., 100

The domestic aggregate MDI market has not changed much, and the narrow range is higher. There are few quotations from traders, mainly watching the market dynamics. The quotations of major manufacturers have been raised, the supply has been reduced, and the market has risen significantly at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream demand is slightly flat and the purchase volume is average. Some traders even have a holiday in advance, which shows that the intention of downstream goods preparation is not strong before the festival.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from September 16 to 23, the domestic aggregate MDI market price rose from 16100 yuan/ton to 16420 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 1.99%, a month on month increase of 3.53%, and a year-on-year decrease of 21.81%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of September 23:

Region, Wanhua Goods, Shanghai Goods

In East China, 16000-16200 yuan/ton, 15700-15800 yuan/ton

In North China, around 16000-16200 yuan/ton, 15700-15800 yuan/ton

In South China, 16000-16200 yuan/ton, 15700-15800 yuan/ton

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI traders as of September 23:

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene monitored by the business community rose by a narrow margin, 7817 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7944 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.63%.

Aniline: The business community monitored that the price of domestic aniline market continued to rise strongly. The price at the beginning of the week was 11750 yuan/ton, and the price at the weekend was 12142 yuan/ton, up 3.34% in the cycle.

At present, the supply is good, while the demand is bad, and the supply and demand game. The business community’s MDI analysts predict that the domestic MDI market is mainly in shock.

Since late August, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride with o-phthalic acid method has risen significantly. Up to now, the price of phthalic anhydride with o-phthalic acid method has been quoted at 10300 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 27.16%. The sharp increase in price is mainly due to the combined impact of tight supply and cost support.

Supply side: shortage of goods due to equipment maintenance

Recently, the supply of goods in the phthalic anhydride plant is tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The 120000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Tongling, Anhui Province has been shut down for overhaul for about a month, and the 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Xinyang Group has been shut down. It is estimated that the start-up and restart will be carried out after the National Day holiday. Affected by the overhaul of the devices, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate will decline to below 50%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the price of phthalic anhydride in the plant will rise sharply, The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is 10200-10400 yuan/ton, and the market price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 10100-10300 yuan/ton.

Cost end: the price of raw ortho benzene has risen significantly

The price of ortho benzene rose sharply in late August. As of September 22, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 12.5%. According to the manufacturer’s response, the supply of raw materials ortho benzene is tight in the near future, ortho benzene manufacturers are not enough to start construction, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers are hard to find supplies. The 160000 t/a ortho benzene unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. began to reduce the load gradually at the end of August, and the maintenance is expected to last for 3 months; Fuhaichuang 240000 t/a o-benzene plant has been shut down since the end of June; The 40000 t/a phthalic acid plant of Luoyang Petrochemical stopped production. In addition, the import volume of phthalic acid is not large, and the inventory of main ports has dropped to 8000 tons. The supply of phthalic acid is tight, which restricts the production of phthalic anhydride manufacturers. In addition, the price of phthalic acid has risen significantly. Supported by the favorable cost factors, the phthalic anhydride market has risen significantly.

Demand side: plasticizer market improved, DOP price rose sharply

The downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10280 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 13.59%. The domestic DOP enterprises have started to work, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. The mainstream DOP price is 10200-10400 yuan/ton. The rising downstream market is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride has risen significantly.

Looking at the future market: Recently, the port’s ortho xylene inventory is still in storage, domestic ortho xylene manufacturers have more maintenance, the short-term supply of ortho xylene continues to be tight, the downstream plasticizer industry has improved, and the actual demand has increased compared with before. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, so there are still positive factors, and the market price of phthalic anhydride may still rise in the future.