Trade name: urea

Latest price (September 21): 2541 yuan/ton

On September 21, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly, 27 yuan/ton lower than that on September 20, with a drop of 1.05%, and 0.97% higher than that of the same period last year. The upstream anthracite price rose slightly, with good cost support. Agricultural demand is small, and industrial demand is gradually expanding. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is increasing, and the demand for urea is slightly increasing. The price of melamine rose slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, the daily urea production decreased slightly due to the short shutdown of units in some regions. As the National Day approaches, manufacturers cut prices to attract orders.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price will fall slightly, with an average market price of about 2520 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of rare earth has risen recently, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry has improved. On September 19, the rare earth index was 605 points, up 3 points from yesterday, down 39.92% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 123.25% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has warmed up, and the market has risen significantly. The prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all risen in different ways. On the 20th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium rose by 55000 yuan/ton to 795000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 50000 yuan/ton to 665000 yuan/ton, and the price of neodymium oxide rose by 55000 yuan/ton to 725000 yuan/ton, The price of neodymium metal rose by 30000 yuan/ton to 865000 yuan/ton, the price of praseodymium metal rose by 20000 yuan/ton to 845000 yuan/ton, and the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 65000 yuan/ton to 725000 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of domestic light rare earth market has risen significantly.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market has risen. Recently, the downstream magnetic material factories have started to replenish their warehouses before the National Day holiday. In addition, the rare earth industry has gradually entered the peak season, and some downstream businesses are stocking up. The demand has increased, and the rare earth market has risen. Due to the impact on the production of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some epidemic areas, the supply side was tight, and the market price trend rose. Recently, the sales of downstream new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles have increased month on month, the demand for spot purchases has risen, and the market price has risen. Downstream demand improved, replenishment increased, traders offered actively, wait-and-see sentiment remained on the market, and the light rare earth market rose.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has improved. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will reach 2.395 million and 2.383 million respectively in August 2022, with year-on-year growth of 38.3% and 32.1%, both higher than last month. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in August were 691000 and 666000, respectively, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2 times and 1 time, and the monthly production and sales reached a new record high. The production and sales of automobiles have increased significantly. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is still supported. The price of the domestic light rare earth market has been supported to a certain extent, and the price trend has risen.

The heavy rare earth market did not increase much. On the 20th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.195 million yuan/ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.175 million yuan/ton, and the price of dysprosium metal was 2.865 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earth rose slightly. The production enterprises began to work gradually, and the rare earth market atmosphere improved slightly. In addition, the export of Myanmar was limited. The global supply of rare earth was relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has risen.

In addition, the first batch of rare earth total amount control indicators in 2022 met expectations, and the industry pattern continued to optimize. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the total control index for the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation will be 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, up sharply year on year. However, the demand gap for rare earth still exists, and the situation of oversupply has not improved.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions, downstream procurement is limited. However, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have increased recently, and some enterprises have gradually started replenishment. In addition, with the start of rare earth peak season, business community analyst Chen Ling expects the rare earth market to rise.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 19, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products this week was 16400.00 yuan/ton, which had no significant change compared with the price of the same period last week. The price of this week was narrow and strong, which fell compared with the price of the same period last week. The range of price fluctuations was not large. The range of quotations from mainstream manufacturers remained about 16400 yuan/ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable, and the focus of negotiations was stable, The price range is not large this week, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16400.00 yuan/ton. The overall market was stable, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan/ton. The merchants were active in shipping and taking orders to yield profits. Compared with last week’s price, PMMA price was stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiations was stable, and the supply side was normal

Rubber and plastic index: On September 18, the rubber and plastic index was 707, unchanged from yesterday, 33.30% lower than the highest point 1060 (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 33.90% higher than the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the PMMA analysts of the business community, the PMMA price is expected to operate stably in the short term, and the PMMA market will maintain stable operation in the short term. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity.).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 was lowered this week. Last Friday, the average price of domestic PVC was 6504.29 yuan/ton. This Friday, the average price was 6471.43 yuan/ton, and the price decreased 0.51% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic spot market price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the spot market is in a general situation, the downstream inquiry is fair, the follow-up of actual orders is insufficient, the market trading atmosphere is cautious, and the downstream enthusiasm for taking goods is not high. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic PVC5 carbide materials is mostly around 6080-6650 yuan/ton.

In terms of crude oil, on September 15, international crude oil futures fell. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

In terms of calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3700 yuan/ton on Friday to 3616.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decline of 2.25%. The upstream carbon price was adjusted at a low level, and the cost support was average. The downstream PVC market was adjusted at a low level, and the demand for calcium carbide was average.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the spot price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general, and the market trading is light. The decline of futures affects the confidence of the spot market, and the downstream is cautious in taking goods. The upstream carbide price fell and the cost support was insufficient. It is expected that the PVC market price will be stabilized temporarily in the short term. Pay close attention to the changes in the message.

The trend of domestic propane market is weak this week, and the center of gravity of Shandong propane market has moved downward. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5955.75 yuan/ton on September 8 and 5915.75 yuan/ton on September 15, with a drop of 0.67% within the week, up 7.99% compared with the same period last year.

As of September 15, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, September 15

In Central China, 6150-6400 yuan/ton

North China, 5900-6100 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5850-6000 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-6000 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic propane market trend was weak, and Shandong propane market was dominated by weak consolidation, with prices falling first and then rising. Although there is little pressure on the supply side of the current market, the market benefits are relatively limited. In terms of raw materials, international crude oil has been subject to recent shocks, with limited support in terms of cost. Although entering September, the recent temperature drop is not obvious, the demand for combustion market is limited, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry is not high. Duowei will make up as needed and mainly wait and see. The upstream inventory pressure is not large, and most of them are fixed prices.

Saudi Aramco announced in September 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 650 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars/ton from the previous month; Butane was 630 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton from last month.

The current cost support is insufficient. In terms of demand, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the terminal demand is not significantly improved. The enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited. Multidimensional support is available on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The upstream inventory pressure is not big, and the mentality is relatively strong, but the market lacks the power to continue to rise. It is expected that the propane market will continue to consolidate in the short term.

On September 14, the domestic NMP market was operating stably for the time being, and the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was 22500-23000 yuan/ton. Because the price of raw materials has risen significantly recently, the NMP market is ready to move. Enquiries in the market are active, and the sellers are willing to pay their prices. Driven by costs, the NMP market is likely to rise.

Upstream: BDO market continued to rise this week, and the factory bidding price reached a high level. The profit making attitude of the manufacturer holding the goods was explored upward, the downstream followed up as needed, and the trading focus was on the rise.

NMP analysts from China Business Press believe that at present, some NMP enterprises have started to raise prices. Under the support of costs, NMP prices are expected to rise.

This week, the lead market (9.2-9.9) rose in a volatile way. The average price of the domestic market was 14855 yuan/ton last weekend and 14940 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.57%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of the K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means falling; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 14 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 36th week of 2022 (9.5-9.9), including 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with growth were nickel (7.49%), neodymium oxide (6.50%) and copper (4.88%). There were three commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products were titanium concentrate (- 0.95%), cobalt (- 0.61%) and magnesium (- 0.39%). This week’s average increase / decrease was 1.64%.

Lead futures market this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period last week., inventory

Shanghai lead, 14930 yuan / ton, + 60 yuan / ton, 67290 tons

London lead., 1933.5 US dollars / ton, + 47 US dollars / ton, 36750 tons

In terms of futures, Lun Lead kept a volatile trend this week, with an overall range of 1875-1915 dollars/ton. This week is approaching the day when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The tough economic data makes the market expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates significantly, and the dollar index hit a new high of 110.79. At the same time, the euro, yen and other currencies hit new lows. With the strengthening of the US dollar, the metal market was generally under pressure, and Lun lead was under pressure. From the 5th to the 9th, Lun lead went down continuously. However, the trend of Shanghai lead this week is significantly different from that of Lun lead, with the overall trend rising first and then falling. The main operating range is 14795-15135 yuan / ton. The bad news brought by macro factors was basically digested by the market. Shanghai Lead rose continuously this Thursday, and fell under pressure on Friday, closing at 14930 yuan/ton. In terms of inventory, the overall inventory decline this week has certain support for Shanghai lead.

Fundamentally speaking, the lead processing fee is gradually rising, the lead ore supply is also relaxed, and the tight supply situation at the mine end has been effectively alleviated. The power limitation policies in Henan, Hunan and other places have basically ended, and the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased significantly. With the original lead manufacturers starting to arrange for resumption of production, the situation of loose supply will continue to exist, which will put some pressure on the lead ingot Market. The demand of the downstream battery enterprises in the peak season began to show, the automobile sales were expected to grow to a certain extent, and the downstream power exchange demand began to improve. The operating rate of the battery enterprises rose steadily, and the market expectation in the peak season was enhanced. The improvement of the downstream demand supports the lead ingot Market. At present, the market shows a double increase in supply and demand. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a wide fluctuation trend in the future. The future market will focus on the recovery of downstream demand and the expectation of lead peak season.

Average price trend of acetone in the national mainstream market

On the 5th, Sinopec’s price in East China increased by 200 yuan / ton to 5100 yuan / ton, and Sinopec’s price in North China increased by 150 yuan / ton to 5050-5100 yuan / ton. With the collective adjustment and increase of factories, the market focus was also boosted, and some shippers made profits and actively shipped. Near the Mid Autumn Festival, the downstream concentrated goods preparation, and the market focus is difficult to go down in the short term. At present, the operators are positive and have little intention of going low. The price negotiated in East China today is 5150-5200 yuan / ton.

The offer of acetone in major mainstream markets in China on the last trading day is as follows:

Region, quotation, weekly rise and fall

East China, 5100, 250

Shandong, 5150, 200

Yanshan region., 5150., 200

South China, 5400., 200

On September 5, the rare earth index was 578 points, down 21 points from yesterday, down 42.60% from the highest point 1007 points (February 24, 2022) in the cycle, and up 113.28% from the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index has dropped significantly, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series has dropped, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium has dropped by 15000 yuan / ton to 720000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has fallen by 17500 yuan / ton to 582500 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide has fallen by 30000 yuan / ton to 615000 yuan / ton, the price of metal neodymium has fallen by 40000 yuan / ton to 795000 yuan / ton, and the price of metal praseodymium has fallen by 40000 yuan / ton to 885000 yuan / ton, The price of praseodymium oxide decreased by 30000 yuan / ton to 625000 yuan / ton, the price of terbium oxide decreased by 25000 yuan / ton to 12.825 million yuan / ton, the price of metal terbium decreased by 200000 yuan / ton to 16.3 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 2.165 million yuan / ton, the price of metal dysprosium was 2.845 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy decreased by 5000 yuan / ton to 2.15 million yuan / ton, the price of domestic light rare earth market declined, traders were generally active, metal factories were cautious, and just needed to follow up, The price trend of dysprosium Series in the domestic heavy rare earth market is declining, and the price of terbium series is slightly lower. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. Myanmar prohibits exports. It is expected that the domestic rare earth market will continue to decline in the later period.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, this week’s POM market was weak, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted at a low level. As of September 2, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection grade sample enterprises of business club was about 16100 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. The reason is that the domestic cost support has improved, the downstream plate factories have maintained the just needed procurement, the formaldehyde manufacturers have led to increase the price, and the formaldehyde market has gone up. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will be dominated by strong operation in the near future.

The upstream formaldehyde market rose widely, and the support of POM cost end was strengthened. In terms of industry load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently, the overall operating rate of the industry is stable at about 80%, the supply of goods is abundant, the inventory is high, the competition in the field is strong, and the manufacturers and midstream are inclined to reduce prices for shipment. The operating rate of end enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrow, and the lag of POM consumption continues. Recently, power and production restrictions in some regions have ended, and it is reported that Yuntianhua POM devices have maintenance plans, but it will take some time for the benefits to come to fruition, and the main support point of the current spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in their purchasing operations, focusing on small orders. They are resistant to high-priced sources of goods, and the industry has a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the manufacturers follow the decline in the offer.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is weak this week, the upstream formaldehyde market is rising, and the support of POM cost is OK. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of the supply side is poor. Downstream enterprises are slow to digest the supply of goods, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. Under the situation of contradiction between supply and demand, POM prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term.