Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, this week’s POM market was weak, and the spot prices of various brands were adjusted at a low level. As of September 2, the ex factory price reference offer of POM injection grade sample enterprises of business club was about 16100 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream formaldehyde, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. The reason is that the domestic cost support has improved, the downstream plate factories have maintained the just needed procurement, the formaldehyde manufacturers have led to increase the price, and the formaldehyde market has gone up. It is expected that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will be dominated by strong operation in the near future.

The upstream formaldehyde market rose widely, and the support of POM cost end was strengthened. In terms of industry load, the load of domestic POM enterprises is relatively high recently, the overall operating rate of the industry is stable at about 80%, the supply of goods is abundant, the inventory is high, the competition in the field is strong, and the manufacturers and midstream are inclined to reduce prices for shipment. The operating rate of end enterprises is generally restricted by profits or orders, and the operating rate is narrow, and the lag of POM consumption continues. Recently, power and production restrictions in some regions have ended, and it is reported that Yuntianhua POM devices have maintenance plans, but it will take some time for the benefits to come to fruition, and the main support point of the current spot price is still the cost. Terminal enterprises are cautious in their purchasing operations, focusing on small orders. They are resistant to high-priced sources of goods, and the industry has a heavy wait-and-see mood. There is a contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and the manufacturers follow the decline in the offer.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the domestic POM market is weak this week, the upstream formaldehyde market is rising, and the support of POM cost is OK. The load of POM industry is high, and the support of the supply side is poor. Downstream enterprises are slow to digest the supply of goods, and there is no large-scale replenishment in procurement. Under the situation of contradiction between supply and demand, POM prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term.

On August 29, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 85.72, which was the same as yesterday, down 20.75% from 108.17 points (June 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 185.83% from 29.99 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).

In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price declined by 5.64% in August. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.06/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $99.01/barrel. The decline of crude oil price is mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data is generally weak, which once again causes the market to worry about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the negotiation results of the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which puts pressure on the international oil price. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + has actually reserved more space for production increase. Finally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase its additional capacity by about 1.3 million barrels per day, which is also a reversal of the market’s view on the supply tightening expectation and a decline in the trend of international oil prices. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession. In a comprehensive view, the crude oil price trend declined in August.

On August 29, international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at US $97.01/barrel, an increase of US $3.95 or 4.24%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $102.93/barrel, an increase of US $3.92 or 3.96%. Helped by the expectation that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) may reduce production, superimposed on the armed conflict in Libya; The positive effect of supply tightening has played down the negative impact of the global economic recession.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., Adjusted price., Adjustment amount

August 2., 8650。，- two hundred

August 4., 8450。，- two hundred

August 5., 8150。，- three hundred

August 11, 7950, – 200

August 16, 7750, – 200

August 18., 7500, – 250

August 30., 7600., + 100

In August 2022, Sinopec’s ex factory price of pure benzene was lowered six times in a row, with only one increase at the end of the month, from 8650 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 7600 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative decrease of 1050 yuan / ton. As of 30th, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.

Quotations of other enterprises: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 7503 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 7550 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 7750 yuan / ton.

In August 2022, the hydrogenated benzene market continued to decline. The ex factory price in North China was 9062.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 15.77%.

Domestic market price of main hydrogenated benzene in August (unit: yuan / ton)

The market, the price on July 28, and the price on August 30, rose and fell

East China, 8950-9050, 7550-7650, – 1400

Shandong, 8700 ~ 8750, 7600 ~ 7700, – 1100

Looking at the trend in August, it can be seen that the two rounds of decline of hydrogenated benzene this month are concentrated in the beginning of August and the middle of August. At the beginning of August, international crude oil futures fell continuously on August 4, falling to the lowest point since February. The bad news on the market demand side played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the economic data of many countries showed that the PMI data of major economies in the world in July was weak, which intensified the market’s concern about economic recession. On August 1, WTI fell by more than 4%. Although the overall supply of pure benzene in the same period was in a tight environment, affected by the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support for pure benzene from external news was weak, and the demand for pure benzene slowed down due to the increase of load reduction and shutdown maintenance in the downstream at the same period. The downstream demand did not follow up well, and the pure benzene market was under pressure at the beginning of the month. Sinopec reduced the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a cumulative reduction of 700 yuan / ton, which once again affected the market mentality, As a result, the price of hydrogenated benzene dropped significantly during the same period. Another round of decline was concentrated in the middle of August. Crude oil fell for three consecutive days due to the market’s growing concern about the global economic outlook. In terms of pure benzene, some early-stage shutdown and maintenance devices were restarted one after another in the middle of August, resulting in an increase in domestic pure benzene supply. In terms of port cargo source, the imported cargo in the same period was concentrated in the port. The inventory of East China port increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons in one week. The accumulated inventory of the port was obvious, and the overall supply side was mainly negative. In terms of demand, most downstream products lost money in the same period, there were many shutdown load reduction devices, and the demand for pure benzene was insufficient. During the same period, Sinopec has reduced the ex factory price of pure benzene for two consecutive times, with a cumulative decrease of 450 yuan / ton. The market negative factors are concentrated, and the price of pure benzene has been reduced intensively. In the same period, the market price of hydrogenated benzene is greatly affected by the industrial chain, and the decline is obvious.

In the future, the business community thinks that the recent crude oil price fluctuation is upward, and the basic support is strong. However, the overall inventory in East China is still high. The delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month is basically completed, and the downstream demand is not improved well. The rise of styrene price on the 30th boosted the mentality of pure benzene. Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene, and the local refining price also increased. In general, at present, the downstream demand is limited and the market transaction is limited. It is expected that the price of the industrial chain will be greatly affected by the fundamentals in the near future. In the future, the price of hydrogenated benzene will mainly fluctuate at a high level. We will focus on the trend of crude oil and the impact of downstream demand on the trend of the industrial chain.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the market price of isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in August. The market price of isobutyraldehyde fell from 7300.00 yuan / ton on August 1 to 6666.67 yuan / ton on August 6, a decrease of 8.68%. Then it rose to 7200.00 yuan / ton on August 31, an increase of 8.00%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 63.45%.

On August 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 36.38, which was the same as yesterday, down 65.54% from the highest point of 105.58 in the cycle (September 16, 2021), and up 7.51% from the lowest point of 33.84 on August 7, 2022. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2021 to now). According to the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, isobutyraldehyde fell first and then rose in August, with the largest drop of 8.68% this week.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in August

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers decreased slightly in August, and the manufacturer’s inventory was general.

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream demand

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the market of propylene in the upstream of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in August. The propylene price decreased from 7348.60 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 7118.60 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.13%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 8.10%. Insufficient upstream cost support has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

The downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly in August. The price of neopentyl glycol decreased from 10900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 9966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.56%. The downstream market declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

In the future, the market fluctuated slightly and fell

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly in the middle and early September. The upstream propylene price has an upward trend at the end of the month, and the cost support has improved. The weather has gradually turned cool, the off-season of the terminal industry of neopentyl glycol has gradually ended, the downstream factories have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend has risen under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts of business club believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 10900 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this month was 10866 / ton, with a slight decrease of 0.31%.

At present, the domestic activated carbon price dropped slightly in August. At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-12500 yuan / ton; The activated carbon market is mainly based on inquiry, and the delivery of goods is mainly based on orders. The merchants’ delivery pace is slow, and the overall transaction is cold. The market lacks good news support, and the focus is on the market transaction.

The raw materials of activated carbon are abundant, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc. through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Forecast: the market transaction is cold and quiet. In the short term, the price of activated carbon may fluctuate slightly. For specific prices, please contact the manufacturer for consultation, mainly through negotiation.

At the beginning of this week, the domestic ethyl acetate Market maintained a weak overall pattern, and today’s price change was small. At the beginning of this week, the prices of large factories in Shandong and Jiangsu will not be adjusted temporarily. On the raw material side, the price of acetic acid rebounded slightly, and the negative pressure on the cost side eased slightly. However, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate are still relatively weak. Although the supply pressure is not large and the current market operating rate remains at a medium low level, there is no favorable situation on the demand side. The terminal purchase is cautious and the demand is mainly supported. It is expected that the ethyl acetate Market will remain weak and volatile in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the price execution of raw acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is in the range of 6850-7100 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride increased in August. As of the end of the month, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8350 yuan / ton, up 5.03% compared with the price of 7950 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 26.52% year-on-year. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride increased in August, and the market sales of phthalic anhydride was normal.

In August, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the site improved. The price trend of upstream raw material phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable, the price of DOP increased slightly, and the plasticizer market changed little. However, some units of phthalic anhydride were shut down for maintenance, and the supply was reduced. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in North China increased. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers has decreased, the operation rate of phthalic anhydride in the field has decreased slightly, the domestic supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, the price of upstream adjacent benzene is temporarily stable in August, and the downstream DOP price has increased. Affected by this, the price of phthalic anhydride has increased. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions in the market are limited. The main negotiation price of adjacent method in East China is 8300-8400 yuan / ton, and the main negotiation price of naphthalene method is 8100-8200 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of the phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8300-8500 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of the phthalic anhydride market still exists, and the downstream purchase is mainly based on demand. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride rose.

In August, the price trend of domestic neighbor benzene was temporarily stable. The price in the market at the end of the month was 8000 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month. The low price of domestic neighbor benzene was affected by the negative effect of the phthalic anhydride market. In August, the market trend of imported neighbor benzene in the port area was temporarily stable, and the price of neighbor benzene in the external market did not change much. Recently, the inventory of neighbor benzene in the port area was general, and the price of neighbor benzene in the external market was stable. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, and the actual order was discussed in detail, The low price of raw material o-benzene is unfavorable to the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, and the increase of the market price of phthalic anhydride is limited.

In August, the downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride increased slightly. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic DOP price by the end of the month was 9100 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.96%. The DOP raw material cost in the field was rising. The DOP enterprises started normally, the DOP supply was normal, and the downstream market trend was slightly higher. However, the downstream demand was general, and the market turnover was not changed much. The market of plasticizer DOP rose slightly, and the transaction price was subject to the real-time price. The DOP price was 9000-9200 yuan / ton, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market was affected.

On the whole, the market trend of plasticizers has increased slightly. Some units of phthalic anhydride manufacturers have been shut down for maintenance. It is expected to restart in September. At that time, the supply of phthalic anhydride will increase and the demand of downstream plasticizers will support. On the whole, it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period.

On August 25, the market of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable on August 25, and the market of acetic anhydride was temporarily stable. On August 25, the price of acetic anhydride was 5783.33 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of acetic anhydride on the previous trading day of 5783.33 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of acetic acid has increased, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, and the price of some acetic anhydride enterprises has increased slightly.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fluctuates and rises, the price of methanol stabilizes, and the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride rises. Recently, some acetic acid enterprises have stopped production and maintenance, the operation of acetic acid enterprises is low, the supply of acetic acid is reduced, the price of acetic acid rises, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride rises, the sales of acetic anhydride is poor, the downstream just needs to be purchased, the customer’s willingness to purchase is general, and the wait-and-see is the main factor. The pressure of acetic anhydride decline is weakened, and the upward momentum.

Future forecast

The demand for cost increase is temporarily stable, the pressure for acetic anhydride to fall still exists, and the driving force for increase is increased. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be strong and stable in the future.

On August 24, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate declined. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap between the prices of manufacturers. The mainstream price in the on-site negotiation was 4000-4200 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei was 4200-4300 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market fell, and the price of nitric acid fell. The decline of raw material price has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. However, the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the on-site supply of goods is normal in the near future, The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is declining, and it is expected that the price will decline slightly in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some parts of China are as follows:

Region, price (yuan / ton), rise / fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei Province, 4200-4300., 0

Henan Province, 4000-4100, – 200

Shaanxi Province, 5000-5200., 0

Yunnan, 2900-3100., 0

On August 23, the mainstream quotation range of 1 # tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 201000-202500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 201750 yuan / ton, down 2500 yuan / ton from the previous trading day.

The market mentality was boosted by the news of China’s interest rate cut. Most of the metal markets rose last night, but Shanghai tin fell 0.69%. In the morning, Shanghai tin continued its downward trend at night. As of the end of the 23rd, the Shanghai tin 2209 contract closed down 0.83% to close at 200250 yuan / ton.

Basically, the tin market is still in a weak pattern of supply and demand. Recently, the domestic market as a whole is still dominated by destocking. There is a certain replenishment behavior in the lower reaches, but the overall downstream consumption has not improved significantly. And there is no expectation of improvement in future demand. Generally speaking, the market expects tin production to rise in August, and the main production areas such as Yunnan and Jiangxi will gradually resume production, and the supply is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weak, and the tin price is difficult to be supported. It is expected that the rising power of the tin price is insufficient, and it is expected that the tin price will be under pressure in the future.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan has increased slightly this week. On August 19, the average market price in Henan was 7675 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.66% compared with the price of 7625 yuan / ton at the end of last week and an increase of 0.33% compared with the beginning of this month.

quotations analysis

This week, the market of cryolite has been sorted up, the price of cryolite has risen steadily, the supply of raw materials is tight, the prices of coal and natural gas in the production and processing of enterprises are high, the production cost of cryolite manufacturers is high, many devices in the field operate at low load, the cryolite inventory is tight, the demand in the downstream is stable, the enterprise’s shipment is acceptable, the attitude of the operators is mainly wait-and-see, and the cryolite market is operating at a high level. During the week, individual manufacturers adjusted their quotations according to their own shipment conditions. As of August 19, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was 7200-8700 yuan / ton. The range price was increased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last week.

The upstream soda ash is in weak operation. As of August 19, the average market price was about 2610 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the price was 2660 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.88% in the week. The downstream demand is general, mainly based on demand. The trading atmosphere in the field is light, the downstream support is insufficient, the market center of gravity moves downward, and the soda ash market is weak.

The downstream aluminum market fluctuated and the price trend fluctuated downward. On August 19, the aluminum price was about 18433 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 1.40% in the week. Macro factors dominated the price trend of aluminum price in the early stage. As the price gradually approached the cost side, fundamental factors began to rise. Recently, social inventory began to accumulate gradually, which suppressed the rise of aluminum price to a certain extent. The market performance was strong in supply and weak in demand. In the future, the aluminum market continued to fluctuate.

Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is operating at a high level, the manufacturers’ inventory is tight, the cryolite quotation is strong, the downstream demand is steadily followed up, the enterprise’s shipment is relatively smooth, which supports the high-level operation of the cryolite market. The suppliers in the market occupy a dominant position, and the attitude of the industry is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that the future cryolite market will continue to be stable and wait-and-see.