1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell narrowly this week. The average price in Shandong market was 7174 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7030 yuan / ton at the weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.01% and a decrease of 4.9% compared with the previous 30 days.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the monitoring of business agency, as of the end of this week, the mainstream price of propylene (Shandong) market was 7000-7050 yuan / ton, and some low-end prices fell below 7000 yuan / ton. The market demand is not as expected, the pressure of propylene enterprises to take goods is not reduced, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is difficult to change, and the downstream just needs to purchase, and most of them are small. On the supply side, the maintenance equipment of many parties has been resumed one after another, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, the downstream demand has followed slowly, and the propylene market continues to be weak.

Upstream: the overall raw material market rose slightly this week, but its support for propylene was general. Currently, the propylene market is mainly dominated by supply and demand.

Downstream: most of the downstream derivatives are not optimistic. The overall demand for propylene is limited, and the shipping pressure of propylene production enterprises is not reduced. The main downstream polypropylene futures continue to decline, the spot digestion is poor, and the operating load of some units may be reduced.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of business social chemical branch believes that under the situation of limited demand and increased supply in the future, the propylene price is expected to fall further.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise slightly this week. On August 18, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 464000 yuan / ton, up 0.22% compared with the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on August 14 (463000 yuan / ton). On August 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 481600 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on August 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 480600 yuan / ton).

From the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate upward this week. At present, the shortage of raw materials cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, and the operating rate of some manufacturers is still lower than expected. At present, it is at the peak of power consumption in summer. Due to the influence of power policies in some areas, the overall output of local lithium salt enterprises will be reduced, thus causing the price of lithium carbonate to fluctuate upward.

On the demand side, the downstream market recovered slightly, and the new capacity of many iron and lithium manufacturers was in the climbing stage and continued to increase, which increased the market stock and increased the overall demand.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream is stable, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream is slightly higher, the spodumene raw material is in short supply, the cost support is strong, the enterprise’s low-cost intention is weakened, the demand is recovering, and the negotiation focus of the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide Market is strong under the cost boost, but the actual transaction price is still stable.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate is running steadily. At present, the supply of goods by manufacturers is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. It is mainly based on the arrangement and delivery of contract customers. The number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable.

According to the lithium carbonate analyst of business club, many lithium salt manufacturers in Sichuan have reduced production and limited production due to the current limited power policy. The market supply of lithium carbonate is impacted to a certain extent, and it is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price will still be strong.

On the 17th, the domestic NMP market price was temporarily stable, the average price in the domestic market was stable at 23000 yuan / ton, and the market was willing to support the price. The price of bulk water in mainstream factories was around 25000-26000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. At present, the supply of goods in the market is slightly tight, and the price is upward.

Upstream BDO: BDO narrow finishing operation. At present, 9800-10200 yuan / ton is negotiated in the mainstream of apron; Barrel negotiation 12000-13000 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery). The factory has a strong attitude of price defense, and the atmosphere of inquiry in the downstream market is fair. It just needs orders to purchase.

According to the NMP analysts of business club, the upstream BDO is affected by the maintenance, the supply is tight, the price is stable, the NMP market is stable, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the NMP price will rise slightly in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly in the recent period (August 7-15). As of August 15, the average market price was 6285 yuan / ton, up 7.91%, up 17.91% year-on-year.

At present, there are many PTA overhauls. Among the 2 million ton units of Yisheng Ningbo, the 1.5 million ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical stopped on August 2, the load of the 700000 ton unit of Yadong Petrochemical decreased to 80%, and the load of the 2.25 million ton unit of Yisheng Dalian decreased to 60%. 2.2 million tons of main suppliers in the north were overhauled as planned on August 1. The start-up of the industry has dropped to around 68%, and the spot circulation is relatively small, pushing up the PTA price. In addition, in terms of inventory, the inventory continued to be removed recently, with a social inventory of 2.656 million tons, and the overall pressure was small.

In terms of crude oil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) previously raised the growth forecast of oil demand this year, and the data level eased the expected pressure of demand decline caused by economic recession; Superimposed with the soaring natural gas price, the demand for oil as an alternative energy was boosted, the crude oil rebounded and the PTA cost support was strengthened. However, recently, due to the expected impact of the global economic recession, the risk of falling energy demand has always been shrouded in the futures market. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations have surfaced again, and the oil price is under pressure. As of August 15, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $89.41/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $95.10/barrel.

Under the influence of high temperature, the phenomenon of power limit and production limit at the terminal occurred frequently. Since the middle of August, the textile market has ushered in the first wave of power limit in the industry. Most weaving and textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have also received the notice of peak shift power limit. With the release of the power limit policy, the overall power on rate of enterprises has a downward trend. At present, the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 48%. The terminal mainly digests the original stock, the weaving inventory remains high, the order situation is still weak, and the demand performance is flat.

According to the analysts of business society, from the perspective of PTA itself, some units are planned to restart and supply is expected to increase, but PTA units are still overhauled and the capacity operation rate is still low. On the cost side, the support will gradually weaken as the international crude oil price falls. At the same time, the downstream polyester production and sales are not prosperous, the factory’s intention to purchase spot is not high, and the PTA spot trading atmosphere is still lukewarm. Therefore, in a comprehensive view, although the PTA supply is low, the demand is poor due to the cost drag. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will fluctuate weakly.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on August 12:

Qingdao refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 7850 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan / ton, and Yangba quoted 7700 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8000 yuan / ton, and Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8050 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8050 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis comments:

In terms of crude oil, the market expects that the oil supply in the Gulf of Mexico, which was interrupted before, will soon recover. In addition, the economic recession is expected to continue. The risk of falling energy demand has always covered the futures market. The short-term oil price is still fluctuating in the long-term stalemate.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical increased xylene by 150 yuan / ton.

The terminal gasoline market is good, which supports the market of mixed xylene.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of baking soda was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2550 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2533.33 yuan / ton. The price fell by 0.65%, up 60.68% year-on-year. On August 11, the baking soda commodity index was 168.14, down 1.11 points from yesterday, down 28.71% from the highest point 235.84 (November 10, 2021) in the cycle, and up 90.48% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the demand of the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan Province is about 2300-2600 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials: according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of soda ash this week has been adjusted and operated as a whole. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2700-2800 yuan / ton.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general. In terms of raw materials, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 2700 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2690 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.37% and an increase of 24.39% over the same period last year. On the downstream side, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. In a comprehensive view, the price of baking soda is short-term or consolidation operation, and the specific demand of the downstream market.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market is stable but weak this week, and the spot prices of individual brands are slightly reduced. As of August 11, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 5200 yuan / ton, up or down by – 2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

This week, the momentum of domestic potash fertilizer market further declined, the operating rate of potassium sulfate Mannheim type enterprises remained low, and the overall operating rate further decreased by nearly 30%. However, the downstream consumption is poor, which offsets the low load and low supply of potassium sulfate. The continuation of the previous export policy has affected export sales to a certain extent, and the supply pressure on the site has not decreased. In terms of upstream potassium chloride, there are still too many border trade and port arrivals this week. There are accumulated stocks of imported and domestic goods at the same time. Downstream enterprises such as potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate purchase generally. The competition in the field is strengthened, and the price has been reduced to the cost price. Potassium chloride has poor support for processing potassium sulfate enterprises. At present, the market price of potassium sulfate has fallen, the profit situation of enterprises is poor, the price of northeast and other regions is inverted, the news of new orders is rare, and the response of traders is slow in the downstream.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business club thinks that the domestic potassium sulfate Market is stable but weak this week, and the potassium chloride market is declining. The cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is weakened. The supply side is low but the follow-up situation on the demand side is poor. In addition, there are more goods in the market. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to weaken in the short term due to poor demand.

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 10, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11433.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price on August 1, down 36.25% compared with the price on July 10, and down 38.64% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the recent period (8.1-8.10), the quotation of epichlorohydrin enterprises fluctuated and weakened, and the overall market atmosphere was light. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has risen, the price of raw material glycerin is temporarily stable, the cost is supported by a certain extent, the market operating load has increased slightly, the supply side is sufficient, but the demand side is weak, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the trading atmosphere is flat.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the reference price of propylene in the upstream was 7240.60 on August 9, down 1.47% compared with 7348.60 on August 1.

The downstream epoxy resin, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 9, the reference price of epoxy resin was 17750.00, an increase of 1.14% compared with August 1 (17550.00).

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business club believes that the current cost support is acceptable, but the supply and demand support is insufficient. The downstream procurement is more cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by stalemate in the short term.

On August 9, the acetic anhydride market was weak and lowered

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the price of acetic anhydride fell weakly on August 9, and the market of acetic anhydride fell. On August 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 6200 yuan / ton, down 0.40% from 6225 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The price of some acetic anhydride enterprises fell below 6000 yuan / ton, and the overall acetic anhydride market was adjusted weakly.

Key points of analysis

The price of acetic acid fell weakly, and the price of methanol rose violently. On August 9, the price of methanol increased by 2.97%. The cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride was adjusted weakly. The operation of acetic acid enterprises was stable, the supply of acetic acid was stable, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, the sales of acetic anhydride was poor, the downstream just needed to purchase, the customers’ purchasing intention was general, and the wait-and-see was dominant. The pressure of acetic anhydride decline was still weak, and the driving force for increase was weak.

Future forecast

The adjustment demand for weak cost is poor, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is still weak, and the upward momentum is weak. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will be weak and stable in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business agency, on August 1, the average ex factory price of domestic 85% phosphoric acid was 8550 yuan / ton, and on August 8, the average ex factory price of domestic 85% hot phosphoric acid was 8190 yuan / ton. This week, the price of domestic 85% Industrial grade phosphoric acid fell by 5.32%.

2、 Market analysis

Phosphoric acid prices continued to fall this week. This week, the price of raw yellow phosphorus continued to fall, and the cost support was weak. Phosphoric acid manufacturers have lowered their prices for shipment. Under the downward trend of the market, the downstream is mainly based on demand, and the dealers operate with caution. As of August 8, the factory price of 85% phosphoric acid in China was about 8190 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 7300 yuan / T, the ex factory quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 7800 yuan / T, the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 7400 yuan / T, and the market quotation of 85% phosphoric acid in Nanjing is about 8500 yuan / T.

The raw material is phosphorus ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market is running steadily, and the reference price of phosphate rock is 1100 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is stable, and the trading atmosphere in the site is normal. The operators are reluctant to sell. Large factories and mining enterprises are mainly for their own use, and the basic external sales are very small. The on-site circulation spot is insufficient, and the market continues to operate strongly. According to the phosphorus ore data analyst of the business association, in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly high-level consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

The raw material is yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, the trading of the yellow phosphorus market is still not improving. The market situation is light, the market sales is general, and the downstream enterprises purchase at low prices, which depresses the confidence of the yellow phosphorus market. Most of the yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 26500 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 26000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of business association, the price of yellow phosphorus, the raw material, has continued to fall recently, and the cost side support has weakened. The supply of phosphoric acid market is sufficient, and the terminal demand is limited. The decline of phosphoric acid continues. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will continue to fall in the short term.