Spot price: this week (6.20-6.24), the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber showed a unilateral downward trend. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 24, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber was about 8993 yuan / ton, down 2.44% from the beginning of the week and up 29.06% from the same period last year.

Futures market: this week, the main short fiber futures showed a unilateral sharp decline trend. On Friday, the main contract of short fiber pf futures closed at 7868, down 8.55% from the closing price of last week. The settlement price is 8048 yuan; The position was 122613, the position decreased by 11707, and the basis difference was 1125. This week, the main domestic staple fiber upstream raw material PTA futures fell by 8.19% to close at 6408, and the main ethylene glycol futures fell by 14.04% to close at 4457.

Influencing factors: 1 This week, the international crude oil price showed a trend of shock and slight decline. OPCE may stick to the accelerated production increase plan. The interest rate increase market of major central banks is worried about the slowdown of economic growth and the reduction of energy demand. The data show that the US crude oil inventory increased last week and the international oil price extended its decline. This week, US oil fell more than 3% to close near us $105 per barrel. 2. PTA supply was relatively loose this week, the maintenance of downstream polyester unit was concentrated, the demand for load decline was weakened, and the upstream PX and crude oil were both lower. 3. although the ethylene glycol supply contracted this week, the downstream demand was sluggish, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in the year. Lower upstream crude oil and coal prices were also dragged down. 4. this week, the pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn market fell in a narrow range, the demand was weak, the inventory remained high, mainly through preferential negotiation. 5. the trend of polyester staple fiber was weak this week. The prices of raw materials ethylene glycol and PTA have fallen sharply, and the cost support has weakened. With the advent of the traditional off-season, the start-up of the weaving plant of the terminal cotton mill has declined slightly, and the orders are less.

Future forecast: opec+ production will soon recover, short-term oil prices may continue to fall, and the cost side support of polyester staple fiber will weaken. The United States said that it was discussing the abolition of tariff hikes on China, and downstream demand was expected to pick up. It is expected that polyester staple fiber will be weak and stable after continuous decline in the early stage. Pay close attention to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, US tariff information and changes in raw material prices.

According to the monitoring of business agency, on June 23, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers was about 22020 yuan / ton, down 2.05% month on month and up 21.99% year on year. In terms of market conditions, the mainstream of spot bulk water in East China negotiated 21300-21500 yuan / ton; Barrel Negotiation: 23500-23500 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 21400-21600 yuan / ton; Barrel Negotiation: 23500-23500 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery). The actual orders in the domestic BDO market were followed up lightly, and the focus of trading and investment continued to decline. At present, the information about suppliers is light, the downstream demand side remains depressed, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the market, and there are few actual single transactions.

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Jiangxi region, 10900-11300., 0

Henan region, 11000-11500., 0

Inner Mongolia, 10600-10800., 0

Shandong region, 11000-11500., 0

Fujian, 10900-11300., 0

On June 22, the mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers was 10800-11300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price trend of the on-site merchants was temporarily stable, still dominated by stability. The operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid manufacturers increased, and the on-site supply was sufficient. Recently, the fluorite price rose slightly, but the downstream refrigerant market continued to decline, and the on-site procurement was not active. In general, it is expected that the on-site hydrofluoric acid price will be stable in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the TDI price trend in East China this week was stable and upward. As of June 19, the average market price in East China was 17325 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.73% compared with the price of 17200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and an increase of 1.76% month on month.

Within the week, the TDI market was reorganized and operated, and the supplier released the news. The Shanghai plant is expected to be overhauled in July, and the market supply may be tightened. The factory has an obvious attitude of supporting prices, and the offer of the goods holder was raised. However, due to the weak downstream demand, it was just necessary to follow up, the on-site trading did not improve, and the purchase was less than expected. The TDI market only rose slightly. As of the 19th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 17200-17300 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 17500-17600 yuan / ton, mainly through negotiation. The dealer’s quotation is adjusted with the market news, and the market is stable for the time being.

The upstream toluene market was sorted down, and the price trend of the week fell slightly. As of June 17, the domestic average price of toluene was about 9060 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from last week. Crude oil fell in a wide range, and the positive US gold market weakened, the external news weakened, and the support for toluene weakened. In addition, the downstream had strong resistance to high priced toluene, so the follow-up was cautious, and the focus of toluene moved down during the week.

According to the analysis of TDI datagrapher of business society, the domestic TDI market has a strong wait-and-see mood, the downstream demand is weak, and the upstream rise is weak. It is learned from the supplier that there will be plant device maintenance at the end of June, and the market is expected to rise in the future. Specifically, it is also necessary to pay attention to the downstream follow-up, mainly the short-term TDI market wait-and-see consolidation.

On the 20th, the domestic NMP market price was temporarily stable, with an average electronic grade price of 33750 yuan / ton, down 7.2% from the 30th. Recently, the market has a trend to stop falling and stabilize, with weak cost support, slow follow-up of downstream procurement, dominated by negative factors in the NMP market, and weak price consolidation.

Upstream BDO: the B market news is light. Many operators enter the market to wait and see, and the follow-up of actual orders is limited. There is no deal in the factory auction, and the downstream just needs to purchase and depress the price; With the shipment mentality of the manufacturer holding the goods, the quotation is chaotic and low, and the focus of the actual order is low-end.

According to the NMP analysts of the business community, the cost support is slightly weak. They pay close attention to the changes in raw material prices and expect that the NMP market will be weak in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on June 17 was 120.54, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.49% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 42.96% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business community showed that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride was mainly stable in the current week (June 13-17), and occasionally slightly weak. The domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was slightly adjusted from about 2242.5 yuan / ton to 2230 yuan / ton, with a slight weekly decrease of 0.56%. The manufacturer’s production is normal, the spot inventory is sufficient, and the demand and transaction are average.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly in the current week (June 11-17), and the average market price fell from 287.50 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 4.35%. From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week; From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell sharply, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid; The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream products were generally enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which had a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 6306 yuan / ton on June 13, and 6362 yuan / ton on June 17, a weekly drop of 0.89%. Since the beginning of June, the domestic LNG market price has fluctuated downward, down 3.32% so far, and the market is weak.

Future forecast: in the near future, the raw material cost continues to be weak, the downstream demand is still tepid, and the transaction is general. It is expected that the future market of polyaluminum chloride will remain stable or slightly weak.

According to the monitoring of business agency, on June 16, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers was about 22500 yuan / ton, down 3.10% month on month and up 24.65% year on year. In terms of market conditions, the mainstream of spot bulk water in East China negotiated 22100-22300 yuan / ton; The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 22200-22400 yuan / ton. The decline in the domestic BDO market continued, and just needed orders were traded. The spot market worried about the further decline of the market and negotiated a narrow margin of interest. The factory auction transaction was acceptable, which supported the suppliers to support the market, and the market decline was temporarily limited.

On the 15th, the domestic liquefied gas market weakened as a whole, and the market price of Shandong civil gas continued to fall, with a downward range of about 50 yuan / ton. In the morning, the international crude oil price fell in a bad market mentality. In addition, in the current traditional off-season, the terminal demand is weak, the downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, and the market trading atmosphere is poor. It is expected that the civil price of liquefied gas will continue to be weak in the short term.

On June 14, the rare earth index was 856 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.00% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 215.87% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index is temporarily stable. Some prices of domestic light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium series have declined. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide has declined by 2000 yuan / ton to 960500 yuan / ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 1.165 million yuan / ton. The price of neodymium oxide is 980000 yuan / ton. The price of metal praseodymium is 1.265 million yuan / ton. The price of metal neodymium is 1.2 million yuan / ton. The price of dysprosium oxide has increased by 5000 yuan / ton to 2.545 million yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.535 million yuan / ton, and the price of dysprosium metal is 3.315 million yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic light rare earth market is temporarily stable, and the recent procurement is general. In the domestic heavy rare earth market, the price of dysprosium series is mainly stable, the price of terbium series is temporarily stable, and the downstream purchase is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits exports, and it is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will remain stable in the later period.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market entered the consolidation stage after falling, and the price has not fluctuated significantly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4050.00 yuan / ton on June 6 and 4050.00 yuan / ton on June 13. The price remained stable during the week, down 1.22% compared with June 1.

As of June 13, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region, 4170 yuan / ton

Hebei region, 4070 yuan / ton

Henan region, 4010-4050 yuan / ton

Although there is no obvious fluctuation in the domestic dimethyl ether market this week, the overall trend is weak, and the dimethyl ether Market in Henan is weak. At present, the raw material methanol market is mainly stable, and the civil market price of liquefied gas, a related product, has fallen in a narrow range, bringing some bad news to the dimethyl ether Market. In addition, the market demand is weak, and the downstream companies maintain more on-demand replenishment. The mentality is cautious, the market trading atmosphere is limited, and the price is mainly weak.

On June 13, the methanol market in Shanxi was mainly stable: the mainstream in Jincheng was 2540-2600 yuan / ton; The mainstream of Linfen is 2470-2490 yuan / ton; The retail price of major enterprises in Changzhi is stable at 2550 yuan / ton; The mainstream of Yuncheng is 2500 yuan / ton. The trend of methanol market in Anhui is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Some enterprises’ mainstream negotiation is about 2730-2800 yuan / ton, and some transactions have small differences.

At present, the market price of raw material methanol is mainly adjusted, which brings some support to the market. However, the civil price of liquefied gas, a related product, has returned to a weak market, which has brought some bad news to the market. In addition, the terminal demand is limited, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is not good, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. It is expected that the price of dimethyl ether market may remain weak in the short term.