On July 1, the rare earth index was 397 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 60.30% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 46.49% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals is 445,000 yuan/ton, dysprosium metal is 2.4 million yuan/ton and praseodymium metal is 710,000 yuan/ton. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 345,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.965 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 4.05 million yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 347,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 445,000 yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.965 million yuan per ton.

In the near future, the price trend of rare earth is temporarily stable, the domestic rare earth market is generally trading, and the price trend of most commodities in the rare earth market is stable. However, in the near future, the prices of some products in the market have risen and fallen, the prices of dysprosium and terbium metals have fallen and the prices of neodymium series products have shocked in the near future, the supply in the market is normal, and the price of light rare earth has recently moved. The situation is temporarily stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under the strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Recently, the rare earth market has turned to the seller’s market. The manufacturers have reasonable control over sales and are reluctant to sell. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is still tense. The price trend of rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, large enterprise groups are reluctant to sell, and the market of rare earth has improved. However, the major manufacturers are cautious about the pricing of products.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has made no reduction in its stringent efforts, which has a greater impact on the rare earth industry. The rare earth industry has a low start-up and a cold market. At the recent press conference on macroeconomic operation held by the Development and Reform Commission, Meng Wei, spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), answering reporters’questions on rare earth, said that on the basis of in-depth investigation and scientific demonstration, relevant policies and measures would be put forward to give full play to the special value of rare earth as a strategic resource. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry is general.

Rare earth analysts from business associations expect that the recent stringent domestic environmental protection efforts will not decrease, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, Myanmar restricts exports and reduces supply, but the recent rare earth market transactions are limited, and rare earth products are expected to remain volatile.

Price Trend

In June 2019, the domestic market for cyclohexanone was weak. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of cyclohexanone was 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 7966 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 7.36% in the month. Prices fell 33.61% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market price fluctuated little in June. At the end of May, the market of cyclohexanone rose sharply. Due to the lack of support from the chemical fiber market, in June, China Silver Cyclohexanone plant was restarted and the demand for chemical fibers was general. The market of cyclohexanone began to decline. In mid-January, the pure benzene market was stable and upward, and the cost side was well supported. In addition, there were rumors that Shenyuan, Lubao and Zhejiang products were purchased in the market. The pressure of cyclohexanone factory shipment was temporarily eased. The factory tried to increase, and traders followed. A week later, due to the weak operation of the caprolactam market, the caprolactam plant with a gap in cyclohexanone did not plan to increase its load, and even some factories reduced their load. The demand for downstream caprolactam decreased again, and the market for cyclohexanone fell again. In late January, the listing of upstream pure benzene continued to rise, the trade war seemed to ease, downstream polymerization plants and caprolactam boosted, Honda briefly stopped and restarted, Haili reduced its load, the overall spot supply decreased, cyclohexanone temporarily stabilized, and some of the existing factories tried to increase. The main stream of the factory is 7800-7900 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: Raw Material: Pure Benzene: In the month, the price of pure Benzene rose sharply, especially in the United States. Due to heavy rains and floods at the beginning of the month, the production load of local factories is limited, the main insurance contract and the reduction of spot release lead to the reduction of supply. In addition, due to damage to the wharf, shipping congestion caused delays in the delivery of some pure benzene, resulting in a sharp rise in prices due to market shortage. Due to the soaring of pure benzene in the United States, the arbitrage window between the United States and South Korea was opened, and pure benzene in Asia followed. Sinopec’s pure benzene rose 350 yuan/ton to 4850 yuan/ton four times in a month to follow up the market. In addition, the inventory of East China Port continued to decline due to the high external market and the reduction of ship arrivals, which is good support for the price. Domestic stockholders actively speculated, and East China’s offer once rose to 5000 yuan/ton. But pure benzene is rapidly rising.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in June 2019, there were 34 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 11 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (20.33%), hydrochloric acid (20.00%) and calcium carbide (11.04%). There are 43 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 19% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrogen peroxide (-21.81%), silicone DMC (-17.38%) and butanone (-13.71%). This month’s average rise and fall was -0.38%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Recent restart of Hongda cyclohexanone plant, load reduction of Shandong Haili cyclohexanone, Luxi spot export volume is not much, short-term spot export volume of cyclohexanone has little change. In addition, Huafeng may put into operation 200,000 tons of cyclohexanone plant in July, Weiming Petrochemical Company plans to put into operation 150,000 tons, and Hengyi Cyclohexanone also has a new production plan. In a short period of time, the spot of cyclohexanone fluctuates little, and there is a possibility that the supply of cyclohexanone will increase dramatically in the middle and late July. At present, some factories have instability in start-up, and the pressure of spot stock is not high. The end market demand lacks substantial good news. The caprolactam plant with cyclohexanone gap has not yet been raised, but the chemical fiber market is likely to rise. Cyclohexanone analysts at business associations expect. In the short term, the market of cyclohexanone is dominated by horizontal consolidation. If the new capacity of cyclohexanone is released smoothly in mid-late July, the supply will exceed the demand.