1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, this week is the first week after the festival to return to work, with aniline running stably. The price of aniline in Shandong is 6400 yuan / ton, while that in Nanjing is 6800 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week, the price of pure benzene was 5400-5600 yuan / ton, down 4.97% compared with that before the festival. Affected by the epidemic, the downstream operating rate is low, the operating load is not high and the transportation is limited, the pure benzene market is light and the price is declining. This week’s pure benzene port inventory is down from the year before.

After the festival, nitric acid fell 1.05%, and the production price in East China was 1566.67 yuan / ton.

Product: this week is the first week of returning to work after the festival. Affected by the epidemic, the operating rate of the factory is not high and the operation load is low. In addition, the transportation is limited and the overall trading is light, but the supply and demand are balanced and the price is stable.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: enterprises have resumed work, but transportation is still limited to pure benzene market. It is expected that pure benzene will still operate weakly next week.

Due to the limitation of logistics and downstream demand, aniline inventory or accumulation is expected to be stable and weak next week.

On February 3, when the domestic futures exchange opened trading, commodity futures fell in a large area, with more than 20 varieties falling. For natural rubber, the main contract closed at 11145 in 2005, down 1105, down 9.02%, and the inventory on that day was 236760 tons, up 600 tons; for rubber 20, the contract closed at 9350, down 930, down 9.05%, and the inventory on that day was 20463 tons, up 1008 tons.

 
Figure 1: decline of natural rubber and 20 rubber in the previous period on February 3

Along with the decline and stop of rubber futures, the put options of rubber 2005 in the previous exchange rose sharply, among which the put options with the exercise price of 12250 rose by more than 1000%.

Figure 2: sharp rise of put options in the previous period on February 3

Spot, around the Spring Festival, natural rubber continued to be weak, light transactions. Affected by the epidemic, the National Spring Festival holiday was extended, and downstream enterprises started work late, with little demand. According to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), the main quotation of Baodao / Guangken whole milk in Shanghai was 10950 yuan / ton and that of Qingdao was 10950 yuan / ton in the 18th year; the main quotation of Sinochem / Wuzhishan whole milk in Qingdao was 10950 yuan / ton in the 18th year; the main quotation of Baodao Tianjin was 10950 yuan / ton in the 18th year.

 
Figure 3: 18 year trend of Baodao Tianjiao whole milk market of a trading enterprise in Zhejiang

In terms of rubber production, at present, the domestic production area is in the cut-off period. The rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia are affected by drought, the production of raw rubber has not increased significantly, the upstream of rubber is not significantly affected by the epidemic, and the overall supply continues to be weak before the festival. It is reported that during the Spring Festival holiday, the external price of natural rubber fell sharply, and the closing price of RSS3 on the 31st was 7.3% lower than that on the 23rd; in Thailand, the price of glue was still around 40 baht, and the exchange rate of baht and RMB was devalued to a large extent, so the exchange rate did not have a significant impact on the import cost.

In terms of demand, the downstream enterprises of natural rubber were delayed to return to work due to the impact of the epidemic, and the start-up of tire enterprises was generally after February 10. At present, the transportation path resistance of bulk goods is relatively large, and the short-term demand for spot rubber is significantly reduced compared with that of previous years. At present, there are strong worries about the situation, and the price pressure is inevitable.

In the future, as far as the current situation is concerned, the output of natural rubber has not increased in a large amount, which is good, and the weak downstream demand is the biggest negative. Combined with the particularity of the current situation, the market will remain bearish in the short term. When the epidemic is over and the demand situation is improved, the enterprises will resume work and logistics will recover, which is afraid to usher in the strong procurement in the downstream. Pay close attention to the epidemic control and the resumption of work.

In January, according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of liquid ammonia in China was volatile, and the market rose mainly at the beginning of the month. The quotation of the enterprise was affected by the increase of the downstream stock before the festival and the decrease of the ammonia in the region, most of which rose slightly. The northern region was stable, and some of the enterprises rose slightly, but the range was not large, at 100-300 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of liquid ammonia rose 1.11% at the beginning of the month, and the main quotation in Shandong region was 2900 yuan- 3100 yuan / ton.

In the middle and late ten days, with the high price of liquid ammonia in the market, the enterprise’s operating rate picked up, the downstream purchasing strength slowed down slightly, and the dealer’s inventory was also in the stage of gradually accumulating the inventory. The ammonia volume in Shandong province gradually increased, and the enterprise’s quotation was unable to continue to increase at this time. On the contrary, some manufacturers adjusted their quotation slightly, giving priority to profit shipment, which continued until the eve of the holiday. The market quotation is generally 2800-2900 yuan.

After the festival, the market atmosphere did not improve. Affected by the domestic epidemic situation, the return period of enterprises was delayed, the market generally entered a frozen period, and there were not many dealers in the market. Affected by local traffic control, the market speed of goods was further slowed down. At present, the market is generally free of price.

In the future, the business club believes that the current market is frozen, the enterprise is shut down, the dealer’s inventory is gradually declining, and there is a demand for production and replenishment of inventory in the later market. It is expected that with the coming of the enterprise’s return to work period after February 10, and the coming of the spring farming season, the liquid ammonia market will pick up.