Price trend:
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According to the business club’s big list data, ABS market strengthened in August, and most spot prices in the market increased by a large margin. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14800.00 yuan / ton, which was 14.73% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.
Factor analysis:
In August, ABS upstream styrene, most of the domestic styrene continued the destocking operation of last month, and the whole month’s market fluctuated. On the far end of the cost side, crude oil oscillates and the prices of pure benzene and ethylene are relatively stable, and there is no clear direction for the price trend of styrene. In terms of inventory, domestic styrene port inventory is still at a high level, spot supply pressure is still high, cost support and destocking operation continue to confront, styrene market still maintains high frequency oscillation pattern. On the downstream side, the downstream operation was maintained, the demand remained stable, and the demand for styrene did not increase. In the short term, the market is expected to continue to be deadlocked.
ABS upstream acrylonitrile, last month, the domestic market price of acrylonitrile turned positive, the recent domestic market stability small movement. The cost side is still volatile operation, the current price is at a relatively high level, the rise of raw materials has pressure on the factory, the factory reduces the load operation, resulting in the shortage of spot supply. At present, the merchants are willing to increase inventory, and the downstream just needs to buy. The stock preparation operation is cautious and the trading situation is general. Acrylonitrile market supply reduction problem is still in the near future, the price may be stronger.
The overall performance of butadiene domestic market in August was strong, the price was stable at the beginning of the month, the market rose significantly in the middle of the month, and then the market was running horizontally. During the month, due to the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was tight, which accelerated the price rise of suppliers in the middle of the month. But with the rapid upward market, the market cautious atmosphere gradually. In recent years, due to the increase of ship cargo to Hong Kong and Northeast China, high transaction price was hindered, and the market dropped slightly, and the butadiene market was consolidated at a high level. The dealer mentality appears polarization, follow the trend adjustment and price immobility exist at the same time. At present, the market is generally optimistic, but the specific transaction follow-up is general. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate mainly in the short term.
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In the first ten days of August, the domestic ABS market price continued the consolidation of the previous month, and the offer fell slightly. After that, although the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate is still maintained at a high level, but the spot supply reduction is not improved, but intensified. Overseas public health events continued this month, which led to the poor arrival of imported goods. In addition, ABS inventory has been at a low level. Some domestic flooding has hindered the production of some polymerization plants, so that the recent supply situation has been tightened by multiple factors. At present, the business is in a steady state of mind, and the downstream factories are tentatively preparing goods, but they are still cautious.
Future forecast:
Business agency analysts believe: ABS market rose sharply in August, the price of each brand has a certain range of adjustment. In terms of cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials is mostly good, and the support for ABS on the cost side is acceptable. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream is cautious about the decrease of ABS supply, and the inquiry situation has increased. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted at a high level in the near future.
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