Monthly Archives: September 2020

The price of ABS rose a lot in August

Price trend:

 

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According to the business club’s big list data, ABS market strengthened in August, and most spot prices in the market increased by a large margin. As of August 31, the mainstream offer price of general-purpose ABS was about 14800.00 yuan / ton, which was 14.73% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

Factor analysis:

 

In August, ABS upstream styrene, most of the domestic styrene continued the destocking operation of last month, and the whole month’s market fluctuated. On the far end of the cost side, crude oil oscillates and the prices of pure benzene and ethylene are relatively stable, and there is no clear direction for the price trend of styrene. In terms of inventory, domestic styrene port inventory is still at a high level, spot supply pressure is still high, cost support and destocking operation continue to confront, styrene market still maintains high frequency oscillation pattern. On the downstream side, the downstream operation was maintained, the demand remained stable, and the demand for styrene did not increase. In the short term, the market is expected to continue to be deadlocked.

 

ABS upstream acrylonitrile, last month, the domestic market price of acrylonitrile turned positive, the recent domestic market stability small movement. The cost side is still volatile operation, the current price is at a relatively high level, the rise of raw materials has pressure on the factory, the factory reduces the load operation, resulting in the shortage of spot supply. At present, the merchants are willing to increase inventory, and the downstream just needs to buy. The stock preparation operation is cautious and the trading situation is general. Acrylonitrile market supply reduction problem is still in the near future, the price may be stronger.

 

The overall performance of butadiene domestic market in August was strong, the price was stable at the beginning of the month, the market rose significantly in the middle of the month, and then the market was running horizontally. During the month, due to the weather, some ships in East China delayed unloading, and the spot supply was tight, which accelerated the price rise of suppliers in the middle of the month. But with the rapid upward market, the market cautious atmosphere gradually. In recent years, due to the increase of ship cargo to Hong Kong and Northeast China, high transaction price was hindered, and the market dropped slightly, and the butadiene market was consolidated at a high level. The dealer mentality appears polarization, follow the trend adjustment and price immobility exist at the same time. At present, the market is generally optimistic, but the specific transaction follow-up is general. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate mainly in the short term.

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In the first ten days of August, the domestic ABS market price continued the consolidation of the previous month, and the offer fell slightly. After that, although the domestic ABS petrochemical plant operating rate is still maintained at a high level, but the spot supply reduction is not improved, but intensified. Overseas public health events continued this month, which led to the poor arrival of imported goods. In addition, ABS inventory has been at a low level. Some domestic flooding has hindered the production of some polymerization plants, so that the recent supply situation has been tightened by multiple factors. At present, the business is in a steady state of mind, and the downstream factories are tentatively preparing goods, but they are still cautious.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business agency analysts believe: ABS market rose sharply in August, the price of each brand has a certain range of adjustment. In terms of cost side, the trend of the upstream three materials is mostly good, and the support for ABS on the cost side is acceptable. At present, ABS spot supply is still in short supply, and the downstream is cautious about the decrease of ABS supply, and the inquiry situation has increased. The resistance of merchants to ship is reduced, and the low price order is reduced. It is expected that the domestic ABS price will be adjusted at a high level in the near future.

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In August, Shandong propylene broke through the concussion range and then stabilized

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose to break through the original range, and then fluctuated and stabilized, with 6848 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 6940 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.34%; the monthly low price appeared on August 4, with a monthly price of 6826 yuan / ton, and the monthly high price appeared from August 10 to 13, with a monthly amplitude of 3.08%.

 

2、 Analysis and comment

 

According to the price chart of the business agency, the recent price of propylene fluctuated up and down periodically, and the fluctuation price range broke through at the beginning of the month. At the beginning of August, the price was at a high level in the range. Since the end of the week, the price of some enterprises has been slightly up and down, but it has remained stable since the end of the week. On the 5th, the prices of some enterprises have been slightly stable. From 6th to 10th, the first round of rising trend of breaking through the range of this month has been started. From the 11th to the 16th, the price has continued to decline, and on the 17th, it has been stable for more than 10 days Most manufacturers still keep their prices stable. On the 29th, the prices dropped by about 50 yuan / ton, and then continued to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 6880 yuan / ton and 7250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6900 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory without pressure.

 

On the upstream side, the recent crude oil prices fluctuated slightly, the market is general. On August 28, crude oil prices fell slightly, with limited impact on propylene market.

 

PP market rose in this month after shocks and stabilized, with a monthly increase of 2.78%. The recent rise in polypropylene futures market, a slight positive impact on propylene.

 

The price of acrylic acid in the first half of this month was flat in the first half of this month, and increased in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the price of acrylic acid rose significantly, with a monthly increase of 5.65%.

 

Propylene oxide in this month was also a stable trend after rising, with a monthly increase of 21.79%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

 

Epichlorohydrin fluctuated and stabilized in the first ten days of this month, increased significantly in the middle and last ten days, and then stabilized, with a monthly increase of 7.99% and a monthly amplitude of 10.49%.

 

The domestic price of isopropanol rose slightly after the decline in this month, with a monthly decline of 15.12% and a monthly amplitude of 23.61%. Due to the obvious recovery in the later period, the negative impact on propylene was limited.

 

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In this month, the domestic n-butanol price also showed an upward trend, with a monthly increase of 3.64% and a monthly amplitude of 4.24%, which had little impact on the propylene market.

 

Octanol market this month repeated shocks and declines, a monthly decline of 3.26%, has little impact on propylene.

 

The phenol Market in East China went down at the beginning of this month and then stabilized, with a monthly decline of 5.15% and a monthly amplitude of 5.58%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

 

The acetone market in East China fluctuated and fell in the first ten days, and rose steadily in the middle and last ten days, with a monthly increase of 4.60% and a monthly amplitude of 15.74%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: Generally speaking, there is no pressure on the inventory of the current propylene manufacturers, the crude oil price fluctuates slightly, the downstream polypropylene futures market continues to rise, the overall profit margin is good, and there are many favorable factors, but just need procurement is the main factor, the overall market trading is stable, and it is expected that the propylene price may rise.

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