1、 Price trend

The price of octanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory price of octanol in Shandong increased from 7433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.35%, 3.67% compared with the same period last year. Overall, octanol market rose this week, Oct. 16 octanol commodity index was 55.35.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s factory quotation in Shandong Province rose slightly this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7500 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 7500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol at the end of this week was 7600 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week It increased by 100 yuan / ton.

Judging from the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of octanol dropped slightly this week, with the quotation slightly falling from 7525.45 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7523.64 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 0.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.55% compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials is basically unchanged, and the impact on octanol price is limited due to the influence of supply and demand.

Octanol downstream market, this week DOP factory price high consolidation. DOP quoted 7466.67 yuan / ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97%. The downstream DOP price is high consolidation, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for octanol purchasing is fair, octanol demand is normal, and future market operators are more likely to wait for DOP trend.

3、 Future forecast

In late October, the market trend of octanol in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. The upstream propylene market remained unchanged, which gave limited support to octanol, but the downstream DOP market was high consolidation, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair, and the octanol supply was normal. Octanol analysts believe that: in the late October of Shandong octanol market in supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of octanol market or small fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to business agency data, on October 16, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3800 yuan / ton, up 33 yuan / ton or 0.88% compared with last week.

On October 15, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3810 yuan / ton, up 150 yuan / ton or 4.06% over the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of October 15, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.281 million tons, an increase of 69500 tons or 5.74% compared with last Friday, and an increase of 47400 tons or 3.84% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, Zhangjiagang and Taicang had poor shipment this week, with an average daily shipment of about 7000 tons in Zhangjiagang and 3600 tons in Taicang.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 58%, down 1.5% compared with last week; the operating rate of polyester is about 88%, which is basically the same as last week.

In terms of equipment, the ethylene glycol plant with an annual output of 300000 tons in Guizhou Qianxi coal chemical industry is planned to stop tomorrow for maintenance, and the maintenance time is expected to be about 3 days. The ethylene glycol 2 unit of yansab will be shut down for maintenance in the middle and late October, and the overhaul is expected to take 15 days. The annual production capacity of the plant is 520000 tons.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Recently, due to the listing of downstream staple fiber, the price of ethylene glycol has slightly improved. However, due to the low overall market demand, poor shipment, inventory rise. At the same time, the domestic new capacity is further improved, and the supply is increasing. It is expected that in a short period of time, if downstream demand is not expected to improve, the price of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by multiple favorable supports, the domestic acetic acid market has been strong and upward. As of October 15, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2566 yuan / ton, up 0.52% compared with the beginning of the month and 2.67% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 2450-2600 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2500-2600 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2650-2750 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2230 yuan / ton in Henan, 2500-2530 yuan / ton in Hebei and 2050 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

500L Henglu

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2500

Hebei Jiantao stopped for 3 days at 50:10.13

Tianjin Bohua 35 500

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang 30.1300

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1300

Due to the fact that acetic acid enterprises mostly ship goods in stock during the national day, the overall inventory in the industry has been reduced to a low level, and the storage and inventory pressure of enterprises is not great. On October 13, Jiantao, Hebei Province, was closed for three days, and the market supply was further reduced. In addition, the downstream market demand was better, and the market trading was enthusiastic, and the acetic acid price was firm and upward.

In terms of upstream market and upstream market, due to the favorable influence of futures and downstream demand, the methanol market went up in varying degrees. Among them, Shandong and Shanxi regions showed obvious upward trend, and favorable factors still existed in a short time, at present, about 1925 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the downstream market of acetic acid such as vinyl acetate and acetate started to reduce the negative, and the domestic demand and export support of the terminal were favorable. The supply and demand of the industry was tight, and it was strong and upward in a short time.

Recently, the international acetic acid market has been strongly influenced by the support of raw material methanol. The current quotation of acetic acid Market in Asia is about 315-370 US dollars / ton; the acetic acid Market in Europe is about 550 euro / ton; the North American market is about 550 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the domestic acetic acid market is tight at present, and the acetic acid prices in various regions are going up slightly. The short-term suspension of Jiantao in Hebei Province will aggravate the tense situation of market supply. In addition, the demand of downstream market is better, which is expected to be strong and upward in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong has been weak and stable recently. As of October 14, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was about 1850 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of 2.78% over the same period of last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

70000 tons / year in Shandong Jinling

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year 70%

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Affected by the weak demand of the downstream refrigerant market, the trichloromethane market is in a weak decline, and the enterprises are forced to lower the quotation. However, the price of raw material liquid chlorine is high, and the cost pressure of production enterprises is large, so the price adjustment space of chloroform is limited. At present, the quotation of Shandong Province is about 1850 yuan / ton, that of Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu Province is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, due to the favorable influence of the favorable futures and the rising downstream demand, the methanol market has increased to varying degrees, among which Shandong and Shanxi regions have obvious upward trend, and the favorable factors still exist in a short time, at present, about 1825 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is running at a high level, enterprises have successively issued maintenance plans, and the low inventory leads to the continuous rise of liquid chlorine price The current quotation is about 1000-1200 yuan / ton.

In terms of downstream market, the transaction of refrigerant market was weak after the festival, the demand of downstream market was weak, the market continued to operate at a low level, and the industry was obviously short-sighted; the pharmaceutical and agricultural solvent industry started smoothly, and there was insufficient support for chloroform.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, at present, the production pressure of domestic chloroform enterprises is relatively high, and the enterprises are seriously inverted. Although the downstream market demand continues to be depressed, there is limited room for downward adjustment. It is expected that the chloroform market will be stable in a short period of time.

After returning from the 11 small holiday, propane market finally stopped falling and recovered and ushered in a wave of rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane market was 3277.50 yuan / ton on October 1, and 3525.00 yuan / ton on October 12, with an increase rate of 7.55% after the festival and 1.95% higher than that on September 1.

Although September ushered in the traditional sales peak season, the propane market fell frequently, showing a weak market in the peak season. The most important point is the demand. In September, the terminal demand increased slowly. Although the weather has cooled down, the overall demand has not improved significantly. The market is still in a weak state. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, the mentality is cautious, and the multi-dimensional periodic replenishment operation is maintained. Moreover, the international crude oil trend fluctuated and fell, the news was negative for the market mentality, and the later port concentration on ships brought obvious pressure on the market. The situation of manufacturers’ shipment is weak, and the continuous profit sharing stimulates the downstream market entry.

After the festival, propane rose significantly, and the atmosphere of market transaction was positive. With the introduction of CP in October, propane and butane increased to varying degrees. In addition, the international crude oil rose significantly on the first day after the festival, the cost of imported gas was high, and there were many favorable factors, which promoted the upward trend of propane. In October, the weather temperature dropped significantly, and the terminal demand increased. The lower reaches have a strong bullish attitude towards the future market, and have a positive market entry atmosphere. Refinery mentality is firm, continuously increase factory prices, inventory is mostly in low level.

As of October 12, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification October 12

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 953300-3450 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3490-3650 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3450-3550 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953370-3450 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3700-3800 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 953600-3800 yuan / ton

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco released CP in October 2020, with propane at 375 USD / T, up by 10 USD / T compared with last month, and butane at 380 USD / T, up by 25 USD / T compared with last month.

In terms of demand, with the gradual cooling of the weather, the terminal demand is expected to improve. And under the support of high-level port, the attitude of the operators is better, and they are more active in the market. Manufacturers to ship smoothly, inventory to maintain a low level, a strong mentality. The propane market is expected to rise in the short term.

The international crude oil price fell, the gasoline market maintained rigid demand, the gasoline market price fell steadily, the MTBE manufacturers’ shipment situation improved, and the market price rebounded slightly. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE on October 11 was 3633 yuan / ton, up 2.64% from the price at the beginning of the month.

In the first ten days of October, the international crude oil price first rose and then decreased slightly. The overall price of WTI crude oil increased by 4.86% and Brent crude oil price increased by 4.69%. The overall demand of gasoline market is relatively stable, and it is still in the peak season. With the continuous outflow of bad news in the later period, the industry’s operation enthusiasm is not high, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment is stranded, the demand for replenishment after the festival has not increased, and the gasoline market price has risen. MTBE manufacturers’ shipment has improved, inventory pressure has slowed down, and MTBE quotation has slightly increased slightly; the overall purchasing and marketing atmosphere in southern market is still weak, and the market is mainly stable.

Analysts of MTBE products of energy branch of business agency believe that: there is downward pressure in the international crude oil market, and the domestic gasoline price adjustment is stranded, the gasoline market price drops slightly, and the demand for MTBE and other intermediate materials will decrease, so the domestic MTBE market price is expected to decline slightly.

In the peak season of September, propane Market showed a fluctuating downward trend, showing a weak market in peak season. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane Market on September 1 was 3457.50 yuan / ton, and the average price on 30 days was 3277.50 yuan / ton. In September, the average price was 5.21%, 16.50% lower than that of the same period last year.

In September, the center of gravity of propane Market moved down as a whole, with a continuous decline in the first ten days, and many rebounds were blocked in the middle of September, and then the decline was again out of the trend in the last ten days. Compared with previous years, this year’s market is not optimistic. One of the main reasons for the sluggish peak season is the pressure of international crude oil. The trend of international crude oil in September is uncertain, mainly falling below. The news is bad for the market mentality. The civil gas market follows the trend and propane falls significantly. Secondly, propane remained stable after the introduction of CP price in September, which supported the spot market, but the positive effect was limited. The most important point is the demand side. Due to the slow growth of terminal demand in September, although the weather has cooled down, the overall demand has not been significantly improved, and the market is still in a weak state. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is general, the mentality is cautious, and multi-dimensional periodic replenishment operation is maintained.

In the middle of June, the market rebounded periodically, mainly driven by the rise of international crude oil, but the negative factors still remained in the market. With the fall of crude oil price, propane rose powerless and fell again. Until the end of the month, the propane market continued to decline. Due to the proximity of the double festival, the demand of manufacturers to arrange warehouses before saving, and the concentration of ports on ships at this stage has brought obvious pressure on the market, and the situation of manufacturers’ shipment is relatively weak. Continuous profit sharing is the main stimulation for downstream market entry.

As of September 30, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification September 30

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 952900-3300 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953250-3400 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 953200-3300 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 952900-3020 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953150-3300 yuan / ton

Propane in Western China,% (V / V) not less than: 953130-3150 yuan / ton

In terms of international market, Saudi Aramco released CP in October 2020, with propane at 375 USD / T, up by 10 USD / T compared with last month, and butane at 380 USD / T, up by 25 USD / T compared with last month.

In October, the CP price was introduced, and the propylene butane increased, bringing obvious support to the market. And with the arrival of silver 10, the weather gradually turns cold, and the downstream demand is still expected to improve. Due to the sluggish peak season in September, the market price of propane has been at a relatively low level. With the downstream replenishment after the festival, the manufacturers’ shipment situation is expected to be good, and it is expected that propane may still rise in October.

Commodity index: on September 29, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 85.34, unchanged with yesterday, 20.34% lower than 107.13 (2019-05-08), and 2.96% higher than the lowest point of 82.89 on August 02, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

The data showed that the price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) fluctuated slightly in the first ten days of September, while the market continued to be stable in the middle and late ten days.

Commodity market: this month, the manufacturer’s production is normal, the quotation fluctuation is very small, although in the “golden nine”, but this year’s demand did not appear how exuberant scene, the transaction atmosphere is more peaceful. At present, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) of domestic manufacturers: cationic, molecular weight of 12 million (10-30 ionic degree) of 14000-15000 yuan / ton, anion: molecular weight of 10 million, 6800-9600 yuan / ton, molecular weight of 12 million yuan, 8500-10500 yuan / ton, molecular weight of 14 million, solid particles of 9000-11500 yuan / ton, molecular weight of 16 million solid The quoted price of bulk particles is 9600-10500 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18 million yuan / ton, the quotation of solid particles is 10400-11000 yuan / ton, the molecular weight is 18-20 million yuan / ton, the quotation of powder is 12000-12500 yuan / ton; the price of non-ionic is about 12000-13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: upstream: at the end of August, the mainstream quotation of acrylonitrile was 8450 yuan / ton, and at the end of September, it was about 8750 yuan / ton. Current status of major domestic manufacturers: the settlement price of acrylonitrile products of Sinopec North China and East China chemical marketing company executed 8700 yuan / ton in September, up 900 yuan / ton compared with the settlement price of last month. Jilin Petrochemical’s first and third unit was restarted on September 19. At present, its four acrylonitrile production lines have been restarted. On September 21, Korea’s Taiguang Industrial Co., Ltd. shut down one production line of its 290000 T / a acrylonitrile plant in Yushan due to technical failure, and the restart time was not determined. The restart time of the 90000 T / a acrylonitrile plant of Turkish manufacturer petkim in Aliaga continues to be delayed, and is expected to resume after mid October. Ineos’s 300000 t / a acrylonitrile plant in Cologne, Germany, is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance at the end of September. According to the data, China’s acrylonitrile import volume in August exceeded the same period last year, but the export volume fell year-on-year. Domestic acrylonitrile supply was in excess, and enterprises reduced production due to losses. Downstream: the demand for water treatment projects is relatively stable this month, without ups and downs. We are somewhat disappointed with the expectation of “Jinjiu”. However, the market expects that the industry will improve in the next two months.

Industry situation: since 2020, the prosperity of environmental protection water treatment industry has not recovered significantly. During the period from January Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in main production areas stopped production and delayed to resume work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production areas gradually returned to work and production. In March, logistics returned to normal, mainly consumed inventory. In April, the manufacturers survived normally, and the raw material cost was partly reduced and the demand was weak, which led to the high inventory of manufacturers. On May 6, the national high-speed recovery of charges, the price of acrylonitrile and other raw materials rose, the ex factory price of polyacrylamide did not change much, and there were more stocks; with the upstream propylene of acrylonitrile rising in the industrial chain relationship of “propylene PP melt blown cloth mask”, the production capacity of acrylonitrile manufacturers decreased this month, which directly led to the firm price of acrylonitrile. In July, the price of acrylonitrile was sharply reduced, and the cost of polyacrylamide was lowered. Some enterprises lowered the price of their products according to the trend, and then rebounded in the second half of the month. However, the prices of manufacturers did not change significantly. In fact, most manufacturers hoarded raw materials, and the cost of purchasing determined the price and cost. In August, acrylonitrile continued to rebound slightly, and then continued to stabilize. In September, it remained stable after a small shock, and the amplitude of the shock was insignificant, and the demand did not rise significantly.

Aftermarket forecast: business agency analysis shows that, affected by market demand and environment, the production and sales of water treatment industry in September is relatively stable, and the price fluctuation is very small, basically close to stable. There is no obvious sign in the golden period of “Jinjiu”. The manufacturer expects that with the gradual decrease of temperature and the coming of the later heating season, environmental protection and other requirements will improve the market of water treatment products. Maybe “Yinshi” can With a slight expectation, it may be difficult to see a sharp rise.

Compared with the recent continuous rise of cotton, spandex and viscose raw materials, the performance of polyester filament is unsatisfactory. The price of polyester filament has fallen since the middle of August, and it still maintains the downward trend in September. Among them, the decline of polyester FDY is the largest, with the specification of 150D / 96F falling by 4.59% in a month, and a year-on-year decrease of 33.09%, followed by polyester POY and polyester DTY.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament Market in September, unit: yuan / ton

Year on year rise and fall of products from September 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020

Polyester POY (150D / 48F) 5304 5156 – 2.79% – 33.09%

Polyester FDY (150D / 96F) 5815 5548 – 4.59% – 29.46%

Polyester DTY (150D / 48F low elasticity) 6726 6570 – 2.32% – 29.51%

In the traditional sales peak season of “Jinjiu Yinshi”, the polyester factory is in a disadvantageous situation of loss and high inventory, and the weak terminal demand leads to the insufficient quality of “Jinjiu”. At the end of the month, with the increase of factory production and price and the arrival of stock market before National Day, the downstream purchasing sentiment was stimulated, and polyester production and sales were improved. According to statistics, as of 28 days, the average production and sales of mainstream large factories were 80% – 100%, and the production and sales of some promotional factories reached 120%. The overall stock of the market was concentrated in 35-44 days, including POY inventory of 13-17 days, FDY inventory of 24-35 days, and DTY inventory of 32-44 days Right, in terms of price, mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. But the pace of replenishment slowed down, and the price fell again. As of September 30, the price of polyester POY (150D / 48F) was 5000.00-5250.00 yuan / ton, that of polyester FDY (150D / 48F) was 5450.00-5500.00 yuan / ton, and that of polyester dty150d / 48F (low elasticity) was 6400.00-6700.00 yuan / ton.

In the raw material market, although OPEC + production reduction and tight US crude oil supply supported the recovery of oil price, the rise was still limited by concerns about global demand. Many PTA units scheduled to be overhauled in September were delayed, but the continuous restart of multiple units led to PTA start-up load returning to more than 90%. The spot supply is still loose, and the intermittent high production and sales of polyester in the downstream has a very limited effect on PTA market. The market lacks of good, the market mentality is not good, and the buying and selling atmosphere turns weak. As of September 30, the average market price was 3315 yuan / ton, down 7.92% compared with the beginning of the month, and 35.42% lower than the same period last year.

Recently, the number of buyers from all over the home textile market of China Light and textile city has increased. The number of orders for online live broadcast counterpart customers has increased. Curtain cloth and decorative cloth continue to interact with each other. The marketing trend of decorative home furnishing fabric with polyester filament as the main raw material is quite optimistic, and the transaction continues to be pushed up. Most downstream enterprises began to increase orders in mid August, autumn and winter. Especially affected by the purchasing action before the National Day festival, the comprehensive starting rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms gradually increased to more than 74%. However, the continuous follow-up of downstream orders is insufficient, and the overall number of orders is lower than in previous years.

Xia Ting, an analyst at the business agency, believes that in the raw material market, PTA’s short-term partial maintenance units have recovered, and the maintenance plan of some units has been delayed. In terms of demand, polyester starts to operate at a high level. However, there is an expectation of load reduction in October. Therefore, it is possible to reduce the purchase of raw materials. PTA is likely to continue to bear pressure and go down, and the cost side support is insufficient. At present, the inventory of polyester filament is still at a high level, and weaving manufacturers only purchase polyester filament at the time of big promotion or just in need. It is expected that in October, with the end of purchase orders in autumn and winter, the demand will further decline, the burden of excess supply will become more and more serious, and the price of polyester filament is likely to fluctuate downward.