The crude benzene commodity index on November 29 was 45.20, unchanged with yesterday, 65.72% lower than 131.84 (2013-01-28), and 48.00% higher than the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In November 2020, the crude benzene market will fluctuate upward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene will be 2556.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 2886.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 12.91%.

In November 2020, Sinopec’s pure benzene price increased five times and decreased once, with a cumulative increase of 600 yuan / ton. As of the 30th, all refineries under Sinopec had implemented the unified implementation of 4200 yuan / ton.

The crude benzene market was mainly driven by the prices of pure benzene and crude oil. On the whole, the market price of styrene rose first and then fell this month, which led to the main market price of pure benzene. At the end of the month, affected by the fall of styrene, the pure benzene market went down and then rose. In terms of the start-up of coking enterprises, the seventh round of increase of coke in this month ended and the eighth round of increase was opened at the end of the month. Although there was no response from downstream steel mills, the recent decrease in the start-up of coking enterprises has been an indisputable fact. Affected by the environmental protection of major production areas and the gradual implementation of de capacity, the start-up of coking enterprises this month has slightly decreased, and the subsequent new capacity can not be replenished in a short time In the future, the market supply will be slightly tight. With the support of high profits, the overall coking operating rate of the whole country is about 80%. Driven by the recent market recovery, some downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have good demand for crude benzene.

In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been stable at about 65% in the near future, which is in an upward state as a whole. Some enterprises that shut down in the early stage started operation this month and have good demand for crude benzene.

In the future market, the business agency believes that the pure benzene and crude oil market are performing well, and the external price of pure benzene is still high, which has certain support for the market. Market participants generally look forward to the future market, and the future market focuses on the price trend of downstream products and the external market trend.

Commodity index: on November 30, the commodity index of polyaluminum chloride was 94.05, up 0.38 point compared with yesterday, 13.72% lower than 109.01 point (2019-08-28), and 11.54% higher than the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring data, from September to November, the market of polyaluminum chloride showed an overall upward trend, with the total increase of 7.09% in the two months of the “golden nine silver decade” and more than 10% in March at the end of November. The lowest mainstream price of polyaluminum chloride, one of the main monitoring specifications, with a content of more than 28% was 1571.43 yuan / ton on September 1, and the highest price was about 1740 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an increase of more than 10%, It is the best three months since 2020. In the first two months, the prices of raw materials hydrochloric acid and calcium powder increased, and the prices of fuel and natural gas used in the production process rose sharply, leading to the price of polyaluminum chloride manufacturers transferred from the factory, with a total of about 200 yuan / ton in two months. In November, the price of raw materials rose and the manufacturers stopped production under the requirements of environmental protection policies in the heating season, resulting in gradual shortage of supply and comprehensive price rise About 300 yuan / ton.

Raw material cost: hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of North China is mainly stable, with some rising: the price of poly aluminum chloride in Dezhou Meihua was reported at 160 yuan / ton in early September, and 210 yuan / ton at the end of the month after several price adjustments in October, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton, and a sharp increase of more than 4% in November, and an offer of 315 yuan / ton at the end of the month. As for Henan, one of the main production areas of water treatment enterprises, according to the local polyaluminum chloride manufacturers, the price of hydrochloric acid was about 180 yuan / ton in September, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to rise in October. Not only was the price of hydrochloric acid high, but also they had to queue up to get the goods. According to the market rules, the downstream was also in September and October Month is the raw material for environmental protection water treatment in the heating season. Under the stimulation of cost and demand, most of the ex factory prices of polyaluminum chloride increased, and the price of hydrochloric acid continued to rise in November. Calcium powder: according to traders, the price increase of raw material calcium powder is mainly concentrated in September, with an increase of about 80 yuan / ton. Since October, the price of calcium powder is still stable at the price at the end of September, with little change.

9、 In October, the price of natural gas, the fuel used in the production of polyaluminum chloride, rose sharply, while in November, the price of natural gas rebounded rapidly after a shock drop. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the temperature has dropped sharply in recent days, the demand for urban fuel has increased, the supply in some areas is tight, the downstream replenishment sentiment has increased, the demand is getting better, the market trading atmosphere has improved, the manufacturers’ shipment situation has improved, and the confidence in bidding has been strengthened. In addition, the price of liquefied natural gas has been boosted by many advantages. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be stronger in the short term, and the price will continue Continued to rise. Among them, at the beginning of September, the mainstream quotation of liquefied natural gas was 2406.67 yuan / ton; at the end of October, it was about 3766.67 yuan / ton; at the end of November, it was 3923.33 yuan / ton, with an increase of more than 63% in March. Such a big increase will increase the pressure on polyaluminum enterprises, and the ex factory price of polyaluminium will inevitably rise.

Downstream demand: in September and October, the price of polyaluminum chloride increased significantly. In the heating season in November, environmental protection inspection is strictly required, and manufacturers stop production, resulting in tight supply of goods. This month surpassed October and became the best month in 2020.

Industry: from September to the end of the year, the water treatment industry as a whole is in a good time. The market rise is mainly subject to the rising pressure of the cost side, the coming of the heating season and the shutdown and downstream demand caused by the pressure of environmental protection. The market is generally optimistic about the market situation of the water treatment industry in the heating season. In fact, the market rose sharply this month, which is indeed the best time in 2020.

Aftermarket forecast: according to the analysis of business agency, on the basis of heating season, the continuous rise of raw material cost and the shortage of supply caused by shutdown have caused the price rise of polyaluminum chloride. As for the future market, we believe that the above factors will continue to support the future market, and polyaluminum chloride will still have sufficient upward momentum in December.