1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 16566.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 16900 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 2.01% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall trend of domestic yellow phosphorus market is upward, the spot market is tight, and the business owners issue orders in the early stage, and the price fixing operation is the main operation. Traders mainly wait and see, downstream purchase on demand, appropriate replenishment. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 17000 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Sichuan is about 16900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price in Guizhou is about 16800 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole is stable, and the downstream procurement is mainly cautious. The stock tide before the festival does not appear, and there are not many new orders. Up to now, in Hubei Province, 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate quotation is 380-390 yuan / ton; in Guizhou Province, 30% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation is about 320-360 yuan / ton, and the price has been stable for nearly a week; 28% grade phosphate ore car plate quotation is about 280-320 yuan / ton, and the transaction price is slightly lower.

In terms of coke, in the current situation that the new production capacity has not been fully released, it is expected that the coke market will continue to operate strongly in the short term. In the future, we will focus on the start-up of downstream steel plants, the production of new production capacity and the change of coke inventory in various links. As of January 13, the mainstream price of Liupanshui coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was 2520 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the previous trading day, and increased by 270 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month. As of January 15, the ports of Shandong and Shandong are still relatively strong. In terms of price, the mainstream spot ex warehouse price of port quasi primary metallurgical coke is about 2880 yuan / ton, and the price of primary coke is 2980 yuan / ton. The inventory of the two ports decreased today, mainly to the southern region. At present, the overall supply of goods available for sale in the ports is still low.

This week, the market of phosphoric acid is normal, the market of phosphoric acid is cautious, and there is no obvious change in the price. Phosphate is normally produced, most of which are for their own use, some of which are exported, and the actual transaction is mainly through negotiation.

3、 Future forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that the market price of yellow phosphorus will rise this week. With the decrease of market supply, the spot is tight, the yellow phosphorus enterprises are reluctant to sell obviously, and the price fixing operation is dominant. Forecast: in the short term, the price of yellow phosphorus will still increase slightly.

1、 Price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s block list, the domestic bromine market has been at a high level recently. As of January 13, the average price in Shandong was about 33666 yuan / ton, up 1% from the beginning of this month and 10.58% from the same period last year.

2、 Cause analysis

At present, the domestic bromine market is stable and strong as a whole. Except for Dongying area and individual enterprises maintaining production, other enterprises have stopped. The spot supply in the market is reluctant to sell, and the inventory of enterprises is exhausted. However, the downstream market just needs to be flat, and the transaction in the industry is flat. At present, the quotation of mainstream bromine enterprises is about 33500-34000 yuan / ton.

In the upstream, the sulfur market is strong, the overall inventory is low, the trade is still good, and the shipment is smooth. The future market focuses on the follow-up situation of the downstream, which is about 1003 yuan / ton at present. The downstream market of sulfuric acid is good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid is normal. In the short term, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the Shandong market will rise slightly, which is about 317 yuan / ton at present; The price of caustic soda is weak and stable, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, the downstream purchase demand is general, about 485 yuan / ton at present, it is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda is weak. The main downstream flame retardant market of bromine is in a weak and stable operation, the start-up of the industry is flat, the demand for bromine is general, the overall receiving intention is insufficient, and the resistance to the high price of bromine is obvious.

3、 Future forecast

Business community bromine industry analysts believe that the domestic bromine market is basically in a state of shutdown, and the spot and inventory are at a low level. However, the downstream market is short of just demand, which has obvious resistance to the high price of bromine, and the supply and demand game in the industry is obvious. It is expected that bromine will still be strong in a short period of time.

1、 Polyoxymethylene market price trend chart

Price curve of paraformaldehyde

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of paraformaldehyde this week is 5333 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong formaldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene, offers 5400 yuan / ton of Polyoxymethylene (96) including tax, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd., with an annual output of 9000 tons of polyoxymethylene, Polyoxymethylene (96) ex factory price including tax 5300 yuan / ton, the price is the same as last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The ex factory price of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 5400 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Polyoxymethylene market to go goods, manufacturers offer stability.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the domestic methanol market was weak this week. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 2282 yuan / ton, while the average price of methanol producers in Shandong at the end of the week was 2270 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.55%.

3、 Future forecast

Affected by the weak operation of raw material methanol market, polyoxymethylene analysts of business community expect that the price of polyoxymethylene may decline.

1、 Price trend

 
The comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2160 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market temporarily stable, January 8 potassium chloride commodity index was 68.57.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2300 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of January, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

1、 Acrylic acid price trend

(Figure: p-value curve of acrylic acid products)

2、 Market analysis

Recently, acrylic acid market is weak. According to the data of business club’s block list, as of January 8, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 9433.33 yuan / ton, down 4.07% compared with January 1 and 0.70% compared with December 8, 2020. At present, the price of raw material propylene has weakened. In addition, the downstream operating rate has declined, the demand has weakened, the downstream purchasing has strong wait-and-see sentiment, the market inquiry and transaction performance are general, and the market is weak.

Upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market had a downward trend on January 8. According to the price chart of the business club, the propylene price declined all the way at the end of December, and began to rise on New Year’s day. On the 4th, the price was increased by about 100 yuan / ton. On the 5th and 6th, the price was mainly stable, with only a few enterprises going up. On the 8th, some prices fell. Now, the market transaction is between 7250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is still around 7250 yuan / ton. Factory inventory is general, stable delivery.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices on January 7, 2021, there were 18 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector that rose month on month, of which one was more than 5%, accounting for 1.1% of the total number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were propylene glycol (10.29%), crude benzene (3.80%) and cryolite (3.02%). A total of 14 kinds of commodities declined month on month, with phenol (- 3.21%), DMF (- 2.90%) and n-butanol (industrial grade) (- 2.78%) as the top three products. The average daily rise or fall was 0.12%.

3、 Future forecast

According to acrylic acid analysts of business news agency, at present, the price of raw material propylene is on the decline, the cost support is weakened, the downstream demand procurement is the main, and the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be weak and stable in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of January 7, the reference ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 12500 yuan / ton, which was increased by 1167 yuan / ton or 5.88% compared with January 1 (reference price was 11333 yuan / ton), and decreased by 133 yuan / ton or 1.06% compared with December 1 (reference price was 12633 yuan / ton).

Low start-up cost supports propylene glycol’s upward trend in the first week of January

After the new year’s Day festival, the domestic industrial grade propylene glycol market ushered in a rise. The trend of raw material propylene oxide after the festival was stable and upward, which gradually gave strong support to the cost of propylene glycol. At present, some production plants of propylene glycol are in low start-up or shutdown maintenance status, the overall inventory of propylene glycol is low, and the supply is tight. Although the downstream is purchased on demand and there are not many large orders, the current supply of propylene glycol is tight Due to less pressure, propylene glycol factories and secondary market have increased the ex factory price of propylene glycol by 300-800 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in Shandong Province refers to 12000-13100 yuan / ton (loose water). As of January 7, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol refers to 12500 yuan / ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price 11333 yuan / ton), the average price of propylene glycol has increased by 1167 yuan / ton, or 5 88%; compared with December 1 (reference price: 12633 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 133 yuan / ton, or 1.06%.

On the upstream side, after the new year’s day, the domestic propylene oxide market continued the trend of the end of December 2020, and the overall operation was stable, medium and strong, giving sufficient support to the cost of propylene glycol. As of January 7, the reference price of domestic propylene oxide was 19066.67 yuan / ton, up 0.88% compared with January 1 (18900 yuan / ton).

Internationally, on January 6, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $50.63/barrel, up US $0.70. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 54.30 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.70 U.S. dollars. Oil prices continued to push up on Wednesday, with WTI rising above the $50 mark, mainly because US crude oil inventories fell by 8 million barrels for the fourth consecutive week, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

It is expected that the propylene glycol market will be adjusted in a narrow range in the short term

At present, supported by cost, propylene glycol is running at a high level. Before the downstream demand is fully opened, it is expected that the market will continue to push up. Therefore, the propylene glycol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will be stable and small, with narrow adjustment as the main factor.

Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business association: after the new year’s day, the Spring Festival stock is around the corner, the cobalt market is very good, and the cobalt price is soaring. As of January 6, the price of cobalt was 289666.66 yuan / ton, up 6.23% from 272666.66 yuan / ton on January 1. In 2021, the cobalt market will have a good start, and the cobalt price will soar.

The situation in Africa affects the supply of cobalt Market

Secretary General’s special representative for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Leila Zerrougui, pointed out at the Security Council’s briefing on the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo that the political tension in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased, including the rift within the ruling coalition and the threat of the president dissolving the national assembly. The increasing political risks in the DRC affect the supply of cobalt Market and increase the pressure of cobalt price rise.

Since the end of November, the epidemic situation in Africa has worsened again. Namibia, Congo (DRC), South Africa, Senegal, Zimbabwe and other African countries have tightened epidemic control measures to cope with the deterioration of the epidemic. The deterioration of the epidemic situation is bad for the supply of cobalt, the transportation risk increases, the transportation cost of cobalt ore increases, and the driving force of cobalt price increases.

A new round of stimulus policies for economic recovery

The European Central Bank announced the interest rate resolution to maintain the interest rate unchanged, increase the emergency anti epidemic bond purchase program (PEPP) by 500 billion euros to 1.85 trillion euros, and extend the term for nine months. The PEPP program will be extended to March 2022 at least, and the quantitative easing policy will continue until shortly before the interest rate rises. The Federal Reserve extended the termination date of the main street loan program from 2021 to January 8, and the United States launched a $900 billion second round of fiscal stimulus. Countries around the world have successively launched a new round of economic stimulus policies, which will further increase market flow and stimulate the economic recovery. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to continue to increase. The demand of cobalt market is expected to pick up in the future, and the market of cobalt is good.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of business news agency, believes that with the Spring Festival stock coming soon, domestic cobalt market demand rises slightly in the short term, and cobalt price rises more vigorously; on the supply side, affected by the worsening epidemic situation in Africa, Africa’s logistics transportation is limited, and the political risk of DRC is increasing, which affects the supply of cobalt, and the rising pressure of cobalt Market surges. Under the background of intensified global economic recovery, the production and sales of new energy vehicle industry are expected to continue to increase, the production and sales of mobile phones are expected to recover, the global demand of cobalt market is expected to increase greatly in 2021, and the rising power of cobalt Market in the future is huge. Generally speaking, the supply or short-term shortage of cobalt market, the long-term and short-term strong demand of cobalt market, and the rising power of cobalt market are huge. It is expected that the rising space of cobalt Market in the future is huge, and the cobalt price may hit the high of 350000 yuan / ton before the year.

Affected by the new epidemic situation, the global economy will be hit hard in 2020, the performance of international crude oil market will be ups and downs, the breakdown of OPEC + negotiations, ultra scale production reduction, “negative oil price”, and the farce ridden US election will come in droves. In 2020, the domestic asphalt market is directly affected by the collapse of crude oil price, and the asphalt price is greatly reduced, and it has been in the low operation stage in the later stage. According to the price comparison chart of business club in 2018, 2019 and 2020, the asphalt market price in 2020 is far lower than that in 2018 and 2019.

Let’s first review the trend of asphalt Market in 2020

Overall, according to the data of business news agency, as of December 31, 2020, the domestic asphalt price is 2462 yuan / ton, with an annual decrease of 27.23%.

1. In February, China is in the Spring Festival holiday, and the national weather temperature is low, the asphalt market demand is in the traditional off-season, the domestic asphalt supply and demand are weak, the asphalt market price remains stable, and the domestic epidemic has little impact on the asphalt market price. 3. In April, all parts of the country actively resumed work and production, domestic road construction projects are in the preparation stage, and domestic asphalt market demand gradually recovers. However, with the breakdown of OPEC + production reduction agreement negotiation, Russia and Saudi Arabia have a big price war, and Saudi Arabia has issued a statement to increase production on a large scale to gain more market share. The two sides wrestle with each other to return to the negotiation table, and oil prices plummet. The cost of asphalt lost its support, and the domestic asphalt price fell rapidly. In mid May 2020, the price of asphalt fell to the lowest point in the year, with a quotation of 2202 yuan / ton

From June to August, although the epidemic situation was still fermenting, the economy continued to recover, and the oil price entered a relatively stable stage. In July, OPEC + extended a month’s super scale production reduction (9.7 million barrels), and the production reduction scale dropped to 7.7 million barrels / day from August. During this period, oil prices rose and fell, mainly in the range of shocks. In addition, the domestic asphalt road construction projects have been launched one after another, and the domestic asphalt market has ushered in the peak demand season. The double positive support promotes the rebound of domestic asphalt market price.

9. After October, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a low level, which limited the support for the asphalt cost side. In addition, the new production capacity of the asphalt market opens a new round of supply pressure. In addition, the operating rate of refineries continues to rise. Affected by domestic rainfall and floods, the downstream demand is general in the peak season of asphalt demand in 2020, and many other adverse factors, the overall price of asphalt market fell by 7.5% in September and October

After November, with cold weather and stagnant road construction projects, the domestic asphalt market demand entered the off-season, but the new crown vaccine made a major breakthrough. In addition, OPEC + reached a production reduction agreement in early December, which also released a positive signal to the oil market, and the international oil price opened an upward channel. Supported by the cost side of asphalt, domestic asphalt prices rose slightly again, with an overall increase of about 6%.

The monthly rise and fall of asphalt are as follows:

Prospects for 2021

Crude oil demand continues to recover in 2021

The epidemic situation in 2020 has always existed. At present, the world economy in 2021 may still be shrouded in the shadow of the epidemic situation. Although the vaccine has made a major breakthrough and entered the vaccination process, there are still many variables in the current epidemic situation. For example, the number of infected people is still increasing, Europe and the United States are still implementing restrictive measures, and the virus variants also bring new challenges to the vaccine. The most important factor of oil price around 2021 is still demand. Recently, OPEC has lowered its oil demand forecast for 2021 again. Due to the continuous impact of the new epidemic, the rebound speed of global oil demand in 2021 will be slower than previously expected. Its latest monthly report shows that the demand will increase by 5.9 million barrels / day to 95.89 million barrels / day next year. This growth is expected to be 350000 B / D lower than a month ago. The recovery of demand has a long way to go.

The center of gravity of asphalt price rises in 2021

In 2020, the price trend of domestic asphalt market is mainly affected by the price of crude oil, and domestic road construction projects are not affected by the epidemic. With the development of vaccines in various countries, the world economy will gradually recover in 2021, the demand of international crude oil market will continue to improve, or will return to the pre epidemic level, and the rebound of international crude oil price is bound to pull up the domestic asphalt price center. Therefore, it is expected that the price center of domestic asphalt market will rise in 2021 to the level at the beginning of 2020.

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s block list, in December, the domestic adipic acid market fluctuated downward. According to the monitoring, the samples generally had downward movements. Overall, the price fell by – 2.90%, and many regions were in the state of on-site or more, trading price for quantity. And most of the dealers’ quotation seems to be loose and limited, but the profit giving behavior continues, and East China, South China and other regions are cold. According to the monitoring of business association, the quotation range of adipic acid market is 7800-8300 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, in December, the operation rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable, about 80%. The market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was acceptable. At present, there are signs that the inventory of manufacturers is gradually over to dealers. Therefore, dealers are also showing signs of accumulating high prices. It can not be ruled out that in the later stage, due to the overstocking of inventory, they continue to make profits to clear the inventory.

Pure benzene market trend chart

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price remained high, and the rising oil price provided cost support for the downstream chemical industry. However, at present, the impact of crude oil is gradually weakening. According to the monitoring of business community, the price of pure benzene product in the upstream of adipic acid dropped rapidly in the middle and late ten days, with a drop of more than 8% from December 8 to December 31. The cost pressure (as shown in the figure above) has been eased, and the adipic acid manufacturers have been able to operate There is room for respite, so it is possible to reduce the price of pure benzene and remove the inventory. At present, there is no sign of the bottom of pure benzene’s downward trend. In the later stage, the cost advantage may be lost, and the price of adipic acid may continue to be under pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, terminal demand declined slightly, and the peak of polyurethane procurement gradually came to an end. With the haze in the north, there were more site stoppages, and the demand declined. The market purchasing volume retreated slightly. In December, the PA66 market also gradually cooled down, and the high price fell. So far, according to the data of business society, the decrease in December was 3.02%. In the later period, as the festival approaches, the market operation rate may further decline, and the possibility of price downward again cannot be ruled out.

In the later stage, the rising market of adipic acid is basically coming to an end. At present, it is still dominated by high volatility. In the later stage, the price may be subject to the suppression of demand, so it is difficult to attack the market again. At present, it is in the middle of winter, and the downstream operating rate may continue to decline. At present, there are signs of decline in the cost of pure benzene. Downstream PA66 has also opened a downward channel to feed adipic acid In the near future, it will maintain a high level, or slightly loose, and the transition before the festival will be mainly smooth.

Magnesium market trend in 2020

On December 31, 2020, the price of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas will be stable in cash and tax inclusive, with the overall range of 15400-15900 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 15400-15600 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15700-15800 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15800-15900 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15500-15700 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

According to the data of business news agency, on December 31, the average price of domestic magnesium ingot Market was 15550 yuan / ton, which was 17.71% higher than the average price of 14715 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, 25.95% higher than the valley value of (9.21) 12333.33 yuan / ton, and 9.65% higher than the average price of (1.1) 14166.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year.

Monthly rise and fall of magnesium ingots during the year

Magnesium price enters platform shock zone in March

In December, the influencing factors of cost side factors were enlarged, coupled with environmental protection and weather factors, the magnesium factory’s willingness to support the price rose, and the price was tentatively increased for shipment; then the long short game intensified, and the platform ran in shock.

In the middle of November, foreign orders were purchased intensively, the amount of inquiries increased, and the second round of bottoming rebound started. After nearly two weeks, the market has gradually entered the stage of long short deadlock. In early December, the price of raw materials rose, driving the price of magnesium market to continue to rise. At present, the market trading performance slowed down compared with the previous period, and downstream customers began to operate cautiously.

Future forecast

In the near future, the probability of stable and good operation increases, and the oscillation range is 15400-15900 yuan / ton.