According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of February 28, the average quoted price of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 22766 yuan / ton, which was 1650 yuan / ton higher than that on February 1, 2021 (reference price 21100 yuan / ton), an increase of 7.90%.

At the end of January, the domestic silicone DMC market had begun to explore, which provided favorable support for the continued upward trend of silicone DMC market in February. The industry had a positive attitude towards the market trend in February, and the market was optimistic.

Demand increases, conduction is smooth, organosilicon DMC rises steadily in early February

In the first ten days of February, silicone DMC started to rise steadily, and the downstream stock preparation continued before the festival. Monomer factories received orders well, and the upstream and downstream transmission was smooth. The leading silicone enterprises in Shandong took the lead in increasing the ex factory price of silicone DMC, and then most monomer factories increased the ex factory price of silicone DMC in varying degrees, with an increase range of 300-400 yuan / ton. As of the 15th, domestic silicone DMC had a good performance The mainstream reference quotation is around 21300-22200 yuan / ton, and the average reference price is 21533 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of this month, the average price is up 433 yuan / ton, or 2.05%.

Trading atmosphere continues to push up silicone DMC market all the way up in late February

In late February, during the holidays, the market of silicone DMC was running smoothly. On the first day after the festival, a silicone monomer factory in Shandong kept up with the pace before the festival and continued to increase the ex factory price of silicone DMC. Since then, the market has witnessed a “rising voice.” in just a few days, the market of silicone DMC has been on the rise, and the downstream buying sentiment is strong, the trading atmosphere is good, and the factory has limited orders, I heard that the new orders of manufacturers had been pre received until the end of March, and the number of sealed orders increased. As of February 28, the price of silicone DMC in mainstream areas has risen to around 22500-23000 yuan / ton, with an average reference price of 22766 yuan / ton. After the festival, it rose by 1100 yuan / ton, or 5.08%. In February, it rose by 1650 yuan / ton, or 7.90%. At the beginning of February, the low-end offer of silicone DMC market was 20500 yuan / ton. At the end of February, the high-end offer of silicone DMC market was 23500 yuan / ton. The biggest increase of silicone DMC was more than 3000 yuan / ton.

On the upstream side, the domestic silicon metal (441 #) market rose as a whole in February, and the cost was convenient, which provided solid support for silicone DMC. As of February 28, according to the data of business news agency, the average price of domestic silicon metal (441 #) market was 13658.33 yuan / ton, which was 417 yuan / ton or 3.15% higher than that of early February (13241.67 yuan / ton).

On the downstream side, driven by the rise of silicone oil and silicone DMC, the price of silicone oil and silicone DMC keeps rising. The supply and demand performance of upstream and downstream is smooth at present. It can not be ruled out that with the rise of raw material price in the future, the purchasing end of downstream is afraid to wait-and-see, and the transmission is blocked.

Spot tight row single compact, short-term silicone DMC is expected to rise momentum

At present, the organosilicon DMC market is reluctant to sell, the factory spot inventory is low, the sealing is more common, and there are more orders. In addition, the weather is gradually warming, and the demand for downstream products is increasing. Therefore, the organosilicon DMC data analysts of the business community believe that the organosilicon DMC market trend will continue to rise in the short term. Specific market also need to pay more attention to the changes of raw materials and demand side.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic adipic acid price began to rise due to the cost promotion and the recovery of supply and demand. According to the monitoring of the business society, the adipic acid price in East China rose by 12.59% in February. In March, the offer of adipic acid was even higher in the first two working days. From March 1 to 2, the adipic acid price rose by an unprecedented 12.66%, and the national market generally rose by more than 1000 yuan The price range is 10500-11000 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, the operation rate of adipic acid large factories has declined due to temporary maintenance. The market supply is relatively tight, and some East China dealers reflect that they can’t get the supply. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not big, mainly due to the continuous de inventory of enterprises and the market years ago. At present, the social inventory is more reasonable, and the pressure on the supply side has been released, and the prices of manufacturers have been rising frequently. The relatively tight supply environment is an important reason for the price rise of adipic acid.

Pure benzene market trend chart

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price continued to run at a high level after the year, and the high oil price provided cost support for the downstream chemical industry. The business community monitored that the upstream pure benzene of adipic acid rose rapidly recently, and the pure benzene rose by 42.95% from February 1 to March 2 (as shown in the figure above). The rapid rise in cost led to the sharp rise of adipic acid. However, in the past week, the pure benzene market was obviously stabilized and the rise slowed down, The possibility of the decline of adipic acid cost support in the later stage is not ruled out.

PA66 market trend chart

As far as downstream demand is concerned, terminal demand generally recovers. Enterprises will resume work in time after the year. Polyurethane and PA66 will be purchased intensively after the year. The demand is strong, especially PA66. Large factories are short of raw materials. PA66 products such as Pingdingshan Shenma Group and Huafeng Group have a general increase of 2000 yuan / ton on February 23 alone. So far, according to the data of business news agency, PA66 has increased by 22.07% from February 1 to March 2. Since last week, the growth of PA66 has slowed down, but the market has been running at a high level. It is expected that it will still bring some support to adipic acid Market in the near future.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that adipic acid has reached an unprecedented high, with favorable fundamentals as well as the influence of speculation by traders. Some traders have made high reports, but there is no transaction at high prices. There is a certain risk in the market at present. It is expected that with the withdrawal of upstream crude oil, the rise of pure benzene will stop, and the stabilization of downstream PA66 in the near future, adipic acid may not be able to rise, and the possibility of high-level decline will not be ruled out.

After the Lunar New Year holiday in the year of the ox, the domestic butadiene market has been “booming”, the market price has risen sharply, the external price has been rising, and the favorable market of downstream rubber has continued to pull, so the butadiene market seems to have turned into a bull. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of March 1, the domestic butadiene market price was 8368 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 38.18% and a year-on-year rise of 34.48%.

International crude oil prices continue to rise, domestic bulk market prices continue to rise, butadiene market rose sharply. The lower synthetic rubber market continued to rise, and the widening price gap with butadiene also provided obvious space for butadiene price to rise. At present, the short-term supply of domestic butadiene is relatively abundant, and the purchasing atmosphere of downstream raw materials is relatively low due to inventory replenishment before the festival. With the outflow of some profit-making sources, the rise of the market may be restrained to a certain extent.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s external supply price of butadiene continued to rise by 500 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton in the week; North Huajin exported offline on February 24, with a price reference of 8260 yuan / ton; Yangzi’s butadiene plant stopped on February 21, with an estimated time of about 15 days; Shenhua Ningmei’s normal export price of butadiene was 8510 yuan / ton as of February 25, with an increase of 31.94% compared with February 18;

External price: as of February 26, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at 935-945 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton; CFR China closed at 975-985 US dollars / ton, up 30 US dollars / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe rose: FOB Rotterdam closed at 755-765 US dollars / ton, up 50 US dollars / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 665-675 euro / ton, up 40 Euro / ton.

In the future, the short-term prices of production enterprises pushed up, driving the butadiene market to a high level. However, the follow-up of the transaction remains to be seen. Butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the short-term domestic butadiene market will be dominated by a small consolidation.

1、 Price trend

This week, the distribution price of sulfuric acid in Shandong rose, from 347.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 365.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 5.04%. Overall, the sulfuric acid market rose this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 56.81 on February 26.

2、 Market analysis

From the quotation of manufacturers, the price of mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose this week, with large inventory and general downstream demand. Heze Jiangyuan quoted 490 yuan / ton over the weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu quoted 400 yuan / ton over the weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 400 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Taiyuan kunshengda quoted 120 yuan / ton over the weekend, temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain, the sulfur market in the upstream has been rising step by step recently, and the cost support is good. Moreover, the market prices of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and bromine in the lower reaches were high, which had a positive impact on sulfuric acid.

3、 Future forecast

In early March, the sulfuric acid Market in Shandong may rise slightly. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches has been rising step by step recently, while the market in the lower reaches is better. The purchasing enthusiasm of sulfuric acid in the lower reaches is normal, and the trend of products rises under the contradiction between supply and demand. Business community sulfuric acid analysts believe that the short-term Shandong market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of sulfuric acid market or small shock rise.