According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 10033 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week and 10000 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.33%.

The domestic price of activated carbon is weak, and the current ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan / ton; the market atmosphere of activated carbon is cold, the ex warehouse is normal, and the transaction price is mainly discussed (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complex, and the price can not be generalized, please consult the manufacturer for details).

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon will continue to be weak, the atmosphere of wait-and-see in the downstream will be obvious, and the overall market transaction will be weak.

Since 2021, the domestic market of bisphenol A has soared by 116%. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market offer was 12725 yuan / ton on January 4, and the market offer was 27500 yuan / ton as of April 2, with an increase of 116.11%. At present, the inventory of bisphenol A in the market is low, so it is difficult to find one product.

Since the Spring Festival, bisphenol a market has started a substantial upward mode. After the festival, under the background of a bull market in the chemical industry, the market is catching up again. Compared with last year’s low price of 8000 yuan / ton, the current price is unreachable.

The reasons are as follows: under the background of bull market, the upsurge of upstream and downstream of the industrial chain helped the market of bisphenol a go up; under the tight supply of goods, the terminal demand continued to improve, especially the epoxy resin was stimulated by the demand of the terminal wind power industry at the beginning, with sufficient orders and queuing up for delivery, the demand of coatings, new materials and other industries increased in the later stage, and the demand for raw materials was stable. On the other hand, although the cost transfer of downstream PC is slow, it also follows the upward trend.

From the business community’s point of view, since March, under the pressure of high cost, the downstream PC and epoxy resin operating rate has continued to decline. This week, the PC product operating rate is 50%, and the epoxy resin operating rate has dropped to 60%. On the other hand, the overall cost of BPA has declined. From the perspective of industrial chain alone, the profit of BPA plant is quite high, about 15000 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the supply of goods is limited and there is no intention to make profits. Under the sustained high price, the market transaction is weak. However, the short-term shortage of goods is still the main tone of the market, and the short-term market will still run at a high level. In the later stage, as the industry gradually callback, the terminal transfer of high cost is weak, bisphenol A will gradually return to the rational range.

1、 Price

According to the data of business news agency, the cotton price fell sharply in March. At the beginning of the month, the price of 3128b cotton was 16576 yuan / ton, while at the end of the month, the price was 15269 yuan / ton, down 7.89%, up 37.54% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic: after the year, the trend of domestic textile raw materials was gratifying. In late February, cotton made a big splash, and the market has been rising. At the beginning of March, the highest price was about 16800 yuan / ton. Later, due to the influence of macro factors, the U.S. stocks fell sharply, the futures cotton fell sharply, the domestic Zheng cotton long capital continued to flow out, and the cotton market began to fall. In mid March, the U.S. stimulus bill was passed by Congress, market confidence increased, and the market stopped falling and rebounded slightly. At the end of the month, the high-level dialogue between China and the United States showed great differences in negotiations. Coupled with the strong US dollar, the European epidemic rebounded again. The cotton market as a whole was unable to support, and the price fell all the way.

International: according to the report released by the U.S. Department of agriculture on March 31, in 2021, the intended planting area of cotton in the United States will be 12 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of less than 1%, the area of upland cotton will be 11.9 million acres, a slight increase year-on-year, and the area of Pima cotton will be 142000 acres, a year-on-year decrease of 30%.

Futures: since March, Zheng Mian’s main 2105 contract has been fluctuating downward, rebounded slightly at the end of the month, and then declined again, with a decline of about 10%. 31 ice cotton may contract 80.88 cents, December contract 80.10 cents.

3、 Downstream industry chain

With the decline of cotton prices and the downturn of downstream cotton yarn market, the early production orders are coming to an end, the follow-up of new orders is weak, the enthusiasm of market inquiry and purchase is obviously cooling down, and the delivery and investment are cautious. At present, the market is in the transitional period of changing seasons. Affected by the time of Xinjiang cotton, the market worries can not be relieved in the short term. Cotton yarn prices at home and abroad fell sharply this month, while grey cloth prices remained stable. By the end of February, the yarn and cloth output of cotton textile enterprises had decreased by 25.61% and 32.68% respectively, increased by 49.54% and 20.82% respectively, and the utilization rate of spinning and weaving equipment was about 90%.

At present, the domestic cotton inventory is at a high level, and the supply of imported cotton increased greatly from January to February in 2021, so the supply of cotton market is relatively sufficient. The inventory of yarn and grey fabric products has increased, the willingness of downstream textile enterprises to replenish high price raw materials has decreased, and the purchasing mentality of textile enterprises is relatively cautious. It is expected that the cotton market will fluctuate slightly in the future and pay attention to the changes of the international situation.

The rise of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber narrowed in March. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 13000 yuan / ton at the beginning of March and 13575 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 4.42% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. In March, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased by 300 yuan / ton. As of March 31, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber of Sinopec North China sales company was stable. At present, Qilu cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 13700 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price; Yanshan cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 13620 yuan / ton, and North China warehouse raised the price.

In March, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber increased, and the operating rate of downstream tire factories increased greatly. The operating rate of all steel tire enterprises increased from 58.73% at the end of February to 78% at the end of March, and that of semi steel tire enterprises increased from 4.66% at the end of February to 73% at the end of March, which was strongly supported by the demand.

The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber decreased in March. According to the business news agency, on March 15, Maoming Petrochemical’s 100000 t / a Shunding unit stopped unexpectedly and its restart was to be determined; on March 22, Jinzhou Petrochemical’s 30000 T / a Shunding unit stopped temporarily for about 20 days; Qilu Petrochemical, Dushanzi, Yanshan, ChuanHua and other Shunding units started normal operation. In March, the supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was slightly tight, forming a positive support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber.

In March, the price of butadiene, the raw material of cis-1,4-butadiene, fell, and the cost side was short. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the price of butadiene was 8368 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7860 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decrease of 6.08%.

In March, the supply and demand side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was still relatively strong. However, due to the impact of the decline of raw materials and the resistance of the downstream to high prices, businesses took profits and the growth of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber narrowed.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the current international crude oil is facing the top of periodic demand, it is difficult for the demand to increase significantly in the short term, or there is a downward trend, and the impact of the cost side is short; however, the current supply side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is reduced compared with the previous period, and some manufacturers also have maintenance plans in April and may. On the whole, the pressure on the supply side of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is not big, and it is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will be stable in In the later stage, if the maintenance efforts of enterprises increase, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will still rise.