Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc market recovered in May, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose. On May 18, the price of zinc rose sharply, and on May 18, the price of zinc rose 950 yuan / ton on a single day. On May 18, the average price of zinc was 23256.67 yuan / ton, up 5.82% from 21976.67 yuan / ton on May 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the previous trading day, the price of zinc on May 17 was 22313.33 yuan / ton, up 4.23%.

Main market zinc ingot inventory

According to the statistical data, the ingot inventory in China’s main domestic market decreased slowly, and the zinc ingot inventory decreased month on month, and the zinc market went out of stock in May. On the supply side, zinc market is in the traditional consumption peak season, and there is more demand in the downstream. The demand of zinc market is exuberant, and the rising power of zinc market will increase in the future.

Zinc processing fees rebounded

name Price range average price Up and down Company

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 3800-4000 three thousand and nine hundred 0 2021-5-3

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 3900-4100 four thousand 0 2021-5-3

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 3500-3700 three thousand and six hundred 0 2021-5-3

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 3500-3700 three thousand and six hundred one hundred 2021-5-3

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 4200-4400 four thousand and three hundred 0 2021-5-3

ZN50 Import Zinc Concentrate TC 65-85 seventy-five five 2021-5-3

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC 3700-4100 three thousand and nine hundred fifty 2021-5-3

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Guangxi 3800-4000 three thousand and nine hundred 0 2021-5-17

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Hunan 3900-4100 four thousand 0 2021-5-17

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Yunnan 3500-3700 three thousand and six hundred 0 2021-5-17

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Shaanxi 3500-3700 three thousand and six hundred 0 2021-5-17

ZN50 domestic zinc concentrate TC / Inner Mongolia 4200-4400 four thousand and three hundred 0 2021-5-17

In May, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was maintained at 3700-4100 yuan / ton, which was slightly higher than that in April. The rising zinc concentrate processing fee increased the enthusiasm of zinc smelters to start operation, and the output of zinc market was expected to increase. The supply of zinc market increased, the rising power of zinc market was insufficient, and the downward pressure remained.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, said: zinc market continued to de inventory in May, and zinc ingot prices rose in a volatile manner. May is the traditional consumption peak season of zinc market. The demand of zinc market is strong, the processing fee of zinc concentrate is warming up, the production enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises is rising, the output of zinc is increasing, the supply of zinc market is increasing, and the market of zinc market rises cautiously under the prosperous supply and demand. Last week, zinc prices continued to fall sharply, stimulating the rebound of zinc prices, and zinc prices rose by 1000 yuan on the 18th. In the future, the global economy is generally warming up, and commodities are in a rising cycle. Without clear bad news, the zinc market is volatile and rising.

1、 Price trend

Mixed xylene prices rose first and then fell this week, down from last week, according to data from the business agency’s bulk list. On May 9, the price of mixed xylene was RMB 6060 / ton; The price of this Sunday (May 16) was 5990 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton, or 1.16% from last week; It was 74.64% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Mixed xylene continued to rise last week at the beginning of this week, with strong sentiment of stir fry and positive negotiation; In the second half of the week, due to the lack of downstream demand, the weak gasoline reconciliation market and other negative effects, coupled with the reduction of Sinopec listing price, the market bearish increased, and prices fell. This week, the mixed xylene inventory in East China port fell. On the external market, as of May 14, the price of imported mixed xylene in South Korea was US $770 / T, while on May 7, the price fell 20 USD / T, or 2.53%; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was USD 795 / T, which was down 20 US dollars / ton, or 2.45% on May 7, on May 7.

On the crude oil side, the US colonial pipeline was forced to close by hackers in the week, but the positive effect of the closure was short, and international oil prices fell back after rising. The market is concerned about the impact of the Indian epidemic on demand recovery. Brent rose 0.235 US dollars / barrel this week, or 0.34 percent, on May 7; WTI rose $0.48/barrel, or 0.74 percent.

In the downstream and PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, with the price of 6400 yuan / ton, 60% year-on-year. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has declined sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which has a negative impact on PX market. The closing price for Asia as of May 14 was $828-830 / T FOB Korea and $846-848 / T CFR China.

PTA market, this week, the East China region PTA fell, Sunday (May 16) prices at 4664.55 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from last week, 35.77% higher than the same period last year.

In the ox market, the ox price of this week rose significantly from last week. On Sunday, the price of ox in East China was 6200 yuan / ton, up 5.08% from last week, up 55% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of business society think: on the supply cost side, opec+ production reduction implementation, the total number of us oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, the demand side, the impact of global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of industrial chain, and the economic and trade situation in Europe and America. Third, we will look at the geopolitical situation between the Middle East and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the dollar index and the stock market linkage.

The crude oil market is full of uncertainty, and the downstream follow-up is general, but the peripheral news is still strong. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments jointly issued a notice that, from June 12, 2021, consumption tax on some finished oil products will be levied on import links. Mixed xylene is used as gasoline blending material or affected. In general, it is expected that mixed xylene can stop falling and rising. We will continue to pay attention to the influence of the price trend of Blending Crude Oil and gasoline, the maintenance dynamics of mixed xylene plant, port inventory and downstream demand changes on the price of mixed xylene.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6750.00 yuan / ton this week, with the current price rising by 0.93% month on month and 6.93% year on year.

Recently, the domestic potash market is stable. The potash market is in short supply, most of which are concentrated in the hands of large traders. They are reluctant to sell. The new orders in the market are limited, and the trading atmosphere is flat. The lower reaches maintain just need to purchase. Potash market shock consolidation. According to the statistics of the business society, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate this week is about 6550-7000 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotation is different according to the procurement situation.

Recently, the quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is at a high level: on May 14, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is about 2400 yuan / ton, the quotation is temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. On May 14, Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted about 2650 yuan / ton for potassium chloride distribution, which was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly through negotiation. Recently, the potassium chloride market has been consolidated at a high level, the cost support is good, the replenishment of imported potassium at the port is limited, and the port inventory is less than 2.5 million tons.

According to the potassium carbonate analysts of business news agency, the domestic potash fertilizer market has maintained a stable trend in the near future, new goods have not yet crossed the shore, and the source inventory is low. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see（ The above prices are provided by the main manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted out and analyzed by the potassium carbonate analysts of the business society. They are for reference only. For more price details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation).

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on May 14, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) by mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.15% from the beginning of the week and down 1.14% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Salicylic acid market rose this week, raw material phenol rose by more than 10% since May Day, cost support is strong, salicylic acid prices rose, enterprise price adjustment range of 300-500 yuan / ton, individual enterprises closed offer, there is an upward plan, the market as a whole rose. At present, the international situation has changed a lot, and the export side has a certain impact, but the domestic market is stable, so the support is fair, and the short-term market is strong. As of May 13, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) mainstream manufacturers was 14666.67 yuan / ton. The quotation of industrial grade enterprises was mostly in the range of 13500-15500 yuan / ton, the quotation of pharmaceutical grade enterprises was mostly in the range of 23000-26000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of sublimation grade enterprises was mostly in the range of 18500-20000 yuan / ton. The quotation of salicylic acid at all levels increased slightly.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol market rose. On May 13, the reference price of phenol was 9840.00, up 10.31% compared with 8920.00 on May 1. On May 13, the domestic phenol market was strong in the morning and weak in the afternoon, but the phenol market still maintained a strong momentum. After the factories in East China rose, most of the terminals just needed to follow up, the delivery of goods by the holders was general, the market inquiry increased but the actual orders were general, It is expected that the domestic phenol market will advance steadily in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, raw materials continue to rise, cost support is strong, enterprises increase slightly, some of them are closed and waiting for new prices. It is expected that the market will be strong in the short term, and there is an expectation of increase.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of May 13, the average price of domestic power high-grade lithium iron phosphate was 50000.00 yuan / ton. Recently, the rising trend of lithium iron phosphate slowed down. In May, lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate was increasing. At present, the supply and demand were in balance. From 2021 to 2022, the material demand of LiFePO4 is about 265000-510000 tons, and it is estimated that it will reach 2.1 million tons in 2025.

At present, the main application field of LiFePO4 is new energy vehicles, accounting for a relatively large proportion, followed by energy storage, electric ships and other fields are also developing rapidly. The production capacity of LiFePO4 is growing rapidly, with the production capacity of 7-8 tons in 2017-2018, 9-10 tons in 2019 due to the growth of demand, and 250000 tons in 2020, From 2015 to 2019, the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in China will increase from more than 300000 to more than 1.2 million. In 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power battery in China will reach 41.8gwh, and the share of lithium iron phosphate in the power battery market will be between 40% and 50%. The sales volume of hot new energy vehicles will continue to increase, and it will maintain a steady growth from 2021 to 2023, From July to September, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a record high in the same period. Lithium iron phosphate is favored by more and more new energy vehicle enterprises. After 2021, lithium iron phosphate will undoubtedly emerge in more application markets. New land transportation vehicles, 5g base stations, marine transportation tools, and domestic energy storage are all future battlefields of lithium iron phosphate, with data backup power supply, Standby power supply for medical devices, elevator, etc. the power demand will also bring certain development space for lithium iron phosphate. The field of 5g communication energy storage standby power supply is developing rapidly. China Mobile and China Tower have successively carried out 5g base station standby power supply, using lithium iron phosphate energy storage. At present, the bidding for centralized projects has been announced, and the bidding volume is 2.09gwh, There are about 14.38 million base stations to be reconstructed in the future. 5g energy storage market brings huge space for the demand of LiFePO4 battery.

From September 2020 to February 2021, Hongguang miniev and Tesla Model3 have always been in the top sales, and yadihan EV has also been in the top. The domestic installed capacity has been increasing. In 2019, the new domestic installed capacity is 636.9mw, ranking the first in the world, In 2017-2019, the density technology of LiFePO4 will be improved rapidly, which has met the endurance requirements of consumers. In 2020, the power battery will develop rapidly, and the cost performance will be improved on the premise of cost control.

Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has been in a stable state. At the end of April, the price of lithium carbonate dropped slightly, but after the May Day holiday, the price rose again. The comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate market is around 85000 ~ 92000 yuan / ton.

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe that: in the short term, LiFePO4 presents stable operation, price fluctuation is limited（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

According to the data of business agency, lithium carbonate prices have slightly risen after May 1 holiday, but some enterprises have also slightly lower prices. On May 12, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 87000 yuan / ton, which was 0.46% higher than that of the early may (86600 yuan / ton on May 1). On May 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90600 yuan / ton, which was 0.67% higher than that of the early Zhou Dynasty (on April 18, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 90000 yuan / ton). On December 12, the comprehensive quotation of industrial lithium carbonate market was around 82000-90000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive price of battery grade lithium carbonate market was 85000-92000 yuan / ton.

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate at the end of April showed a small downward exploration, but after the May 1 holiday, the price rose and returned. Thus, lithium carbonate price has been in the state of interval consolidation in recent years, and the price fluctuation is mainly caused by the increase of shipping. It is understood that the current lithium carbonate market supply is relatively good, and there is a shortage of battery grade lithium carbonate supply in the near future.

The downstream domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market maintains a stable operation situation, and enterprises mainly deliver the pre orders. At present, the cost side has certain support, and the market atmosphere is still acceptable. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the price is also in a stable state in the near future. With the development trend of new electric vehicles, the marine shipping vehicles are developing rapidly, and the reserve power storage area has a huge development space. Therefore, the market position of lithium iron phosphate will be further improved in the future.

The lithium carbonate commodity index on May 11 was 221.66, which was flat with yesterday, down 45.28% from the highest point 405.10 (January 07, 2018), up 124.94% from the lowest point of 98.54 on October 16, 2014（ Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysts of lithium carbonate in business agency believe that the market supply of lithium carbonate is relatively good in the near future, and some enterprises have a slight fluctuation. However, most of the prices are in a stable state. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate in the short term may be stable and sustainable.

The current round of domestic oil product price adjustment will start on May 14 and 24, and the current round of domestic oil price increase is likely to be the seventh time this year.

In this round of pricing cycle, the ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production reduction allies was held through video conference. The meeting approved the output adjustment level in May, June and July 2021, with each adjustment not exceeding 500000 barrels per day. At the same time, it continued to abide by the mechanism agreed by the ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production reduction allies, and held the ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production reduction allies every month, In order to evaluate the market situation and decide the output adjustment level of next month, the international oil price remains relatively high. As of May 7, Beijing time, international oil prices closed slightly up and down. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market of the United States was at US $64.71/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was at US $68.08/barrel, The relaxation of travel restrictions in Europe and the United States, the resumption of factory operation and vaccination boosted the recovery expectations, and oil prices rose in turn, closing basically flat in the last trading day. At present, although the worry about the Indian epidemic has not dissipated, the market still has confidence in the recovery of the world’s major economies. In this round of pricing cycle, the release of various favorable factors boosted people’s optimistic expectations of the recovery of energy demand. According to the monitoring data of business community, the crude oil change rate of the three places rose slightly, with the crude oil change rate of 2.31% as of May 7. At 24:00 on May 14, refined oil prices will rise for the seventh time in the year.

A new round of refined oil price adjustment or a small increase is expected

Figure 3. Weekly K-bar chart of WTI

Figure 4. Brent weekly K-bar chart of Business Club

In the later stage, as OPEC + will gradually increase crude oil production, coupled with the severe epidemic situation in India and Japan, the bad mood in the crude oil market will rise. However, as the European and American countries are relaxing the blockade, and the economy of China and the United States is in the recovery stage, the oil price is supported, and the crude oil price is more likely to rise. A new round of refined oil price adjustment will face certain uncertainty, and a small increase may become the main theme.

After the festival, the domestic ethanol market was stable and the performance of each region was slightly different. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of May 8, the domestic ethanol market price was 6620 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 4.23% and a year-on-year increase of 15.13%.

The domestic ethanol market has been reorganized and operated, and the regional ethanol market has been running smoothly. The ethanol market in Northeast, East China and Henan is stable,; The ethanol market in Dongguan was reorganized; Wait and see the ethanol market in Guangxi; In Yunnan, ethanol is weak.

In terms of raw materials, corn prices fluctuated slightly. There is not much surplus grain at the grass-roots level, the North China new wheat harvest is approaching, the speed of grain production by traders has been accelerated, some processing enterprises have sufficient inventory, the enthusiasm for purchasing is not high, and some enterprises raise prices to make up for it. From the demand point of view, the domestic ethyl acetate Market slightly weakened. The overall price of acetic acid on the raw material side fell. The lack of power in the ethyl acetate Market aggravated the bearish attitude of the terminal. There was a shortage of new orders in the market. Some ethyl acetate factories mainly negotiated preferential shipping, and the new orders in the market were concentrated at the low end. Raw material acetic acid price still has downward space, ethyl acetate itself lack of power, market passively follow weak.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province General level 6600 yuan / ton

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7500-7600 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

Shandong Province General level 6450-6550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6750-7400 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7300-7400 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 6650-6700 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade 6600-6700 yuan / ton including tax

Anhui Province anhydrous 7600-7700 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Honey alcohol About 7100-7200 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Cassava alcohol 6600-6700 yuan / ton including tax

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7500 yuan / ton including tax

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol 6650-6750 yuan / ton including tax

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol 7550-7600 yuan / ton including tax

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 7450-7500 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 8100-8150 yuan / ton

The supply and demand of the market is unbalanced, and the price of raw materials is low. Although there are many enterprises overhauling, it is still difficult to boost the ethanol market due to insufficient demand. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is mainly weak.

Price comparison of octanol and DOP during May Day

From the price trend chart of ISO octanol and DOP, it can be seen that the price of ISO octanol has risen sharply since April, and the price of ISO octanol has risen sharply in May. During the May Day festival, the turnover of octanol was good, the price continued to rise, and the opening price of DOP products increased after the festival. As of May 7, the price of ISO octanol was 15800 yuan / ton, up 1600 yuan / ton or 11% from 14200 yuan / ton before May Day. As of May 7, the price of DOP was 13400 yuan / ton, up 925 yuan / ton or 7.41% from 12475 yuan / ton before the festival.

Isooctanol Market

Judging from the recent market of ISO octanol, there are many repair and production reduction devices in ISO octanol manufacturers, the overall supply of spot goods is tight, mainstream factories are queuing up to deliver goods, and the price is still expected to rise in the short term. While the profit margin of DOP is still profitable, the follow-up price is expected to follow the upward trend driven by cost.

Trend of demand side

It can be seen from the PVC trend chart that the price of PVC rises after the festival, and the opening price rises by another 200 yuan / ton, resulting in a sharp increase in the cost pressure of PVC manufacturers after the festival. However, before the May Day festival, PVC manufacturers have insufficient stock, some raw materials for orders have not been locked, DOP prices have risen sharply after the festival, PVC manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, the market demand expectation is insufficient, the downward pressure of DOP has increased, and the rising power is limited.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that during the May Day period, the turnover of ISO octanol was positive, the price of ISO octanol rose sharply, the cost of DOP rose, the profit of DOP declined seriously, the pressure of rising increased, the price of PVC rose slightly after the festival, the enthusiasm of PVC manufacturers for DOP purchasing weakened, and the demand expectation for future market fell. Generally speaking, the DOP cost rises sharply in the future, the demand is limited, the DOP rising power increases, and the downward pressure still exists. It is expected that the DOP price will rise in the future, but the rising trend will slow down.

The price of n-butanol in China’s domestic market rose by more than 8% a according to the monitoring data of the business community, as of May 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 14066 yuan / ton, which was 1066 yuan / ton higher than that on May 5 (13000 yuan / ton), with an increase of 8.21%; Compared with the price on April 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 10500 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 3066 yuan / ton, up 27.88% in the second quarter.

Spot supply for centralized maintenance of the plant is tight, and the price of n-butanol rises 8.21% after the festival

During the May Day holiday, a number of n-butanol production units in China were shut down for maintenance or production reduction. The spot supply of n-butanol was tight. The downstream demand side was stable during the holiday, and the purchase of n-butanol was basically maintained. The inventory of n-butanol plants was digested quickly. Most factories in Shandong quickly adjusted the ex factory price of n-butanol after the Labor Day holiday. The ex factory price of n-butanol rose sharply on the first day and the sixth day after the labor day, After the increase, the factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 13800-14300 yuan / ton, and the average price was 14066 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price increased by 1066 yuan / ton, or 8.21%. At present, the domestic high-end quotation of n-butanol is in South China, and the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Wanhua chemical plant in South China has risen to 14800 yuan / ton.

Upstream, during the holidays, Shandong propylene market prices continued to rise, the mainstream trading reference around 8100-8300 yuan / ton. The higher spot and futures prices of polypropylene give a boost to the propylene market mentality. The propylene factory’s shipment is relatively smooth, the downstream factory’s purchase demand is constant, and the offer price continues to be strong. At present, the upstream and downstream markets perform well.

Short term n-butanol supply continues to be tight, market price will be high and firm

In May, the number of n-butanol start-up units decreased. After the reduction of output, the market supply was tight. I heard that the resumption of operation of major factories was in late may or at the end of May. Therefore, it is expected that the overall domestic n-butanol market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.