In April, the overall LPG market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling. In the first half of the month, the price of civil gas market kept rising. In the second half of the month, the market took a slide. There was a big contrast between the first half of the month and the second half of the month, and the mid month became a “watershed”. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG in Shandong market was 4000.00 yuan / ton on April 1, and 4066.67 yuan / ton on April 30. The overall price rose in April, with a range of 1.67%, and the largest earthquake amplitude was 10.25%.

As of April 30, the mainstream prices of LPG in various regions of China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream price

Civil gas Motor transport North China 4100-4250 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport East China 4000-4150 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport South China 3930-4100 yuan / ton

Civil gas Motor transport Shandong Province 4130-4200 yuan / ton

The civil LPG market in April can be divided into the first half of the month and the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, it went up continuously, while in the second half, it mainly went down

At the beginning of April, the civil LPG market continued the rebound at the end of March and continued to rise slightly. Due to the favorable factors of the Qingming Festival holiday, the downstream market mainly entered the market to replenish goods before the festival, the manufacturers made good deliveries, and the market transaction atmosphere was mild. At the end of March, the market began to stop falling and rebound. Later, with the end of the holiday, the market price did not stop rising, but continued to be the main actor, and the rising range after the holiday was more obvious. Related products propane strong upward to bring good market is one of them. After the festival, the downstream concentrated replenishment, entering the market is relatively stable, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and the inventory is basically free of pressure. Then there is the supply side. In April, the civil gas market entered the stage of centralized maintenance. Refineries have been overhauled one after another. With the decrease of market supply, the market has also been boosted to a certain extent. Finally, there is the international crude oil market. In the first half of April, the international crude oil fluctuated frequently and by a large margin, but it rose as a whole, which also brought some support to civil gas. Under multiple positive factors, the market price of Shandong civil gas has been rising one after another.

However, in the second half of the month, the LPG market in Shandong began to decline continuously, forming a clear contrast with the first half of the month. Due to many positive factors in the market in the first ten days, Shandong civil gas market prices showed a continuous upward trend. The supply side of the market is basically stable, but as prices continue to rise, the favorable market is constantly consumed, the resistance of the downstream is increasing, and the enthusiasm for entering the market has obviously weakened compared with the previous period. Since the 15th, the market has stopped rising and stabilized at first, but the international crude oil market has shown a fluctuating downward trend recently, and the news lacks support. And with the continuous warming of the weather, the market demand has weakened. The domestic gas market was dominated by negative factors, and the firm market was no longer strong. It began to decline on the 19th, and the weakness continued to the end of the month.

Looking at the futures market, the overall shock of LPG futures in April was the main factor, which brought limited support to the spot market. On April 30, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2106 was 3836, the highest price was 3958, the lowest price was 3780, the closing price was 3914, the former settlement price was 3730, the settlement price was 3849, up 184, or 4.93%, the trading volume was 81189, the position was 44143, and the daily increase was – 2099（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the introduction of the CP decline in May and the decline in the cost of imported gas have brought bad effects on the market. In addition, the weather is obviously warming after May Day, and the market demand is expected to weaken. However, there is a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival, which may drive the price up. It is expected that Shandong civil gas market may rise slightly in the short term. In the long term, there are many negative factors, or mainly fall below.

According to the data monitoring of the business association, EVA prices are firm this week, with little change. The average price of domestic EVA market was 20466.67 yuan / ton on April 26 at the beginning of the week, and 20466.67 yuan / ton on April 30 at the end of the week, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week and increased by 2.58% compared with March 30. Although the quotation of EVA manufacturers did not change during the week, the market price quotation center rose.

As of April 30, EVA ex factory quotation is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 20000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 21500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2045 21500 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 19900 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic EVA ex factory quotation is mainly strong, with limited fluctuation. The market price quotation center has risen, with an increase of 300-600 yuan / ton. The May Day holiday is coming. As the end of the month approaches, the supply of petrochemical products is low, and the supply of imported products is limited. The overall supply of the market is weak, and the mentality of the industry is good. The market demand of photovoltaic materials has improved, which has brought certain benefits to the market, and the industry is mainly bullish on the future. However, the resistance of the lower reaches to high prices has increased, and most of them make up on demand. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general.

International crude oil market: on April 29, the international oil price rose significantly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was US $65.01/barrel, up US $1.15 or 1.8%. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.56/barrel, up US $1.27 or 1.9%, mainly due to the strong performance of US economic data and the weakness of US dollar, and the expectation of demand recovery outweighed the market’s worry about the epidemic situation in India and other places.

Ethylene market: in the near future, the overall external market of ethylene showed a slight upward trend. The price of ethylene market in Asia was stable. As of the 29th, CFR closed at US $1102-1110 / T in Northeast Asia and US $1047-1055 / T in Southeast Asia. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 29th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1260-1273 / T and CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1210-1221 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States is stable. As of the 29th, the price is US $1140-1152 / ton. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia is generally stable and rising, mainly due to slight fluctuations in Europe. Generally speaking, the trading atmosphere of the whole ethylene external market is acceptable, with a slight rise in the market.

On the whole, the domestic petrochemical industry is mainly engaged in photovoltaic production. The overall supply of other varieties is weak, which brings some support to the market. The trend of raw material products is good, and the mentality of manufacturers is relatively strong. The price is expected to rise after the festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business news agency’s block list, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was stable, moderate and downward. The average price of cryolite in Henan at the weekend was 6400 yuan / ton, down 0.52% compared with last weekend, which was the same as that of last month.

2、 Market analysis

As of the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Shandong Province was 6000-6800 yuan / ton, while that in Henan Province was 6300-6500 yuan / ton. The regional price was stable compared with last week. According to the plant operation of manufacturers in Henan Province, the output of Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. is 30000 tons / year, the plant starts normally, and the whole plant load of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd; The annual capacity of cryolite plant of Shandong Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. is 40000 tons. The plant is in normal operation, and there is no shutdown plan for the time being. At present, cryolite enterprises are running stably, the market inventory is sufficient, and the downstream demand is fair.

In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, the price trend fluctuated and went up this week, with an increase of 3.46%. The domestic aluminum social inventory was relatively low, the downstream demand side consumption was strong, and the aluminum consumption demand was good. With the implementation of China’s aluminum industry to accelerate the carbon peak target, the aluminum spot market went to the warehouse obviously, and the aluminum market trend continued to go up in the future, which supported the cryolite industry well. On the upstream side, the domestic fluorite market was weak this week. The average price of domestic production was 2661.11 yuan / ton at the weekend, which fell by 1.24% in the week. At present, the mines and flotation units in the fluorite yard started normal, and the supply of goods increased. However, fluorite manufacturers reported that the order situation was general, and the fluorite price might continue to be weak in the later period.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic manufacturers of cryolite have a stable start-up, sufficient market supply, and the industry mainly has a wait-and-see mentality. The downstream aluminum industry has a strong consumption, and the support is good. In the later stage, the cryolite market or upward consolidation, and the specific attention is paid to the market demand.