1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, on the 16th, the spot nickel price fell slightly, with a quotation of 14566.67 yuan / ton, a slight decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous trading day, an increase of 13.53% compared with the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 10.19%.

Combined with the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the production of new production capacity in Indonesia, lunni closed down 2.4% overnight, hitting a new low for more than two months; The reduction of production after the steel plant’s profit loss led to a decline in the demand for raw materials. The downstream steel mills have successively heard the news of production reduction, and the pressure on ferronickel to make profits is great. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, but the production of nickel sulfate decreased due to poor production profits. Domestic inventory is low, and nickel is expected to be dominated by short-term shock consolidation trend.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price December 15: 40000 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on December 15, the price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was upward. The overall market trading is OK, and the phosphorus ore market continues to consolidate steadily. Yellow phosphorus downstream inquiries increased and market transactions were acceptable. The inventory of yellow phosphorus enterprises is slightly tight, and most manufacturers do not make external quotations. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will remain high in the short term.

Trade name: titanium dioxide

Latest price: December 14: 20700 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on December 14, the domestic titanium dioxide market price was basically stable. Domestic leading enterprises of titanium dioxide sent a letter that the price of titanium dioxide will rise from January 1, 2022. As soon as this news came out, it quickly boosted the current titanium dioxide market confidence. In addition, the current titanium ore price increased slightly, the titanium dioxide Market stopped falling and stabilized, and other titanium dioxide enterprises will further follow up.

It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on December 10:

Qingdao refinery offers 5800 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 5700 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 5600 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 5600 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 5950 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 5900 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 5950 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 6101 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 5950 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 5950 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the market’s concern about the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on the global economy and crude oil demand has been alleviated. Superimposed on OPEC + control of production, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the near future. The oil market remains in a tight balance, the oil price has been supported, and the international oil price has risen again.

Today, Xinhai Petrochemical’s mixed xylene was reduced by 50 yuan / ton.

On Friday, the international oil price continued to rise, the price of mixed xylene in outer Asia fell, and the external news lacked guidance. Mixed xylene cautiously followed the rise of crude oil. The downstream demand support is weak and just needs to be purchased. Today, the price is mainly sorted out.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 38166.67 yuan / ton last Friday and 43000 yuan / ton this Friday. The price increased by 12.66% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices rose sharply this week. Enquiries on the yellow phosphorus market increased this week, and the downstream enterprises started preparing goods years ago. Enquiries on the yellow phosphorus increased significantly, the market procurement enthusiasm was high, the supply was tight, the manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and the price of yellow phosphorus increased. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 42000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 42000 yuan / ton. It is reported that Yunnan began to implement the new electricity price in 2022 in January. The electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase.

The Guizhou Provincial mobilization meeting of the second central eco-environmental protection supervision group was held in Guiyang. According to the arrangement, the stationing time of the second central eco-environmental protection supervision group is one month. The arrival period (December 5, 2021 – January 5, 2022) affected the commencement of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou, and Guizhou enterprises have stopped production. Therefore, the downstream stock of yellow phosphorus is relatively active at present.

In terms of raw materials, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole rose slightly this week. Supported by the tight supply side, the domestic phosphorus ore market can be described as “not light in the off-season”. The market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore in the field has always maintained a high and firm quotation, and the overall transaction in the market is expected to continue to move closer to the high end. In addition, the overall performance of downstream yellow phosphorus has gradually warmed up, giving phosphorus ore some positive support. It is expected that the domestic phosphate ore market as a whole will continue to be dominated by high-level and stable consolidation in the near future, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke, the coke market is mainly stable this week, the first round of increase in Inner Mongolia has not been implemented, and the mainstream market has not responded yet. However, with the recent improvement of coke enterprises’ sales and mentality, the bullish mentality is becoming stronger and stronger. However, although the downstream demand has improved to some extent, it has not been released as a whole. The level II emergency response released in Tangshan this week affects the commencement of local steel mills, which will last for a week, and the demand in Hebei will be suspended. In terms of the current supply-demand relationship, it is expected that the coke market will still maintain a stable operation. In the future, we will focus on the coke inventory in all links and the operation of coke steel enterprises.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid rose this week. Due to the rise in the price of raw yellow phosphorus, the cost support gradually strengthened. Some phosphoric acid enterprises have slightly increased their quotation, and the transaction focus has shifted upward. At present, the price is mostly in the range of 9000-12000 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mood of the operators is not reduced, and the bullish mood is strong.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that on the whole, the yellow phosphorus price rose this week. This month, the environmental protection supervision team will be stationed in Guizhou. Next month, the electricity price in Yunnan will be increased, and the cost will be increased. At present, the spot is tight and the order is good. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus may continue to rise in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the TDI market price trend continued to rise this week. On December 10, the average market price in East China was 14625 yuan / ton, up 1.74% during the week and down 2.17% month on month compared with 14375 yuan / ton on December 4.

The TDI market was sorted upward this week, and the quotation continued to rise during the week. The news of domestic plant maintenance was released, the spot supply was tight, the offer of cargo holders rose, the downstream procurement was just needed, and the operators were more cautious when entering the market. As of the 10th, the reference for domestic goods with tickets in the mainstream market in East China was about 14200-14400 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with tickets was 14400-14600 yuan / ton, mainly through real order negotiation. The dealer’s quotation is adjusted according to the market news, and the price rises within the week.

The upstream toluene market fell first and then rose. The overall price decreased by 3.98% during the week. As of December 10, the domestic average price of toluene was 5790.20 yuan / ton. The increase of cargo in East China and the rise of toluene port inventory are bad for the domestic toluene Market. In addition, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the focus of the toluene market moves downward, and the price trend decreases as a whole.

According to the analysis of TDI data division of business society, the domestic TDI supplier market is tight, the on-site device maintenance is good, and the distribution market rises with the mainstream quotation market. However, considering the weak downstream demand and the off-season of terminal products, it is insufficient to support the TDI market or inhibit the increase of TDI, it is expected that the TDI market will rise slightly in the future, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: titanium concentrate

Latest price: December 9: 2155 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the market price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area has increased. The low-cost titanium ore in Panxi area gradually decreased. Affected by the winter weather, Chengde titanium ore was under started, and some small factories reduced production and stopped production. The overall market situation of titanium ore market is acceptable, the price has stopped falling and picked up, and the downstream titanium dioxide enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The overall market increased slightly.

Forecast: the price of titanium concentrate will be mainly stable in the short term.

International oil prices rose sharply for two consecutive trading days. On December 7, WTI crude oil futures in the United States continued to rise, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $72.05/barrel, up US $2.56 or 3.7%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures at US $75.44/barrel, up US $2.36 or 3.2%. Last week, oil prices plummeted due to panic over the mutant virus Omicron. At present, the market’s concerns about the impact of Omicron on global demand have been further alleviated; In addition, the U.S. – Iran nuclear negotiations have encountered obstacles, and it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the market in the near future, which provides support for oil prices.

Crude oil rebounded sharply, giving a good boost to related commodities. In terms of pure benzene, the lower reaches of Shandong were bargain hunting, the enterprise shipped better, and the price rebounded to around 6300 yuan / ton. On Tuesday, Shanxi datu River auctioned 4960 yuan / ton, setting the tone of slight fluctuation in the bidding price of crude benzene this week.

In the future market, the business society believes that the downstream hydrobenzene enterprises have low profits, low enterprise operation, slow demand for crude benzene, tight supply of crude benzene recently, and weak balance between overall supply and demand. The bidding price is expected to be slightly adjusted this week.

On December 7, the rare earth index was 801 points, up 9 points from yesterday, down 19.90% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), and up 195.57% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, and the prices of some domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose. The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 857500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal was 10.35 million yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 895000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide increased by 15000 yuan / ton to 88000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium was 1.15 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium increased by 25000 yuan / ton to 1095000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 2.945 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy increased by 10000 yuan / ton to 2.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.78 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market increased. Recently, the purchase was general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market increased slightly, the price of terbium remained, and the downstream purchase was mainly on demand. Myanmar banned export, It is expected that the domestic rare earth market price may rise in the later stage.

Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (December 6): 300.00 yuan / ton

On December 6, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid decreased slightly, down 20.00 yuan / ton, or 6.25%, compared with the quotation on December 3, and 3.23% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market fell, giving poor support to hydrochloric acid, while the downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride market fell slightly, with general enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid procurement.

Recently, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 280 yuan / ton.