1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on December 3, the average price of domestic LNG was 6383.33 yuan / ton, down 717 yuan / ton from 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 10.09% during the week and up 51.98% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic LNG continued to decline, with the price falling below the 7000 yuan mark, with a decline of more than 10% during the week. Many places such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Ningxia fell in a large area, and the market was weak and difficult to change. Recently, the market trading has been flat, coupled with the increasingly abundant market supply, there is pressure on the delivery of liquid plants, the offer of cargo holders has been reduced, and the market focus has shifted downward. At present, although it is in the peak demand season and the weather turns cool, the demand continues to be weak, the downstream gas buying is insufficient, the market trading continues to be poor, the inventory of liquid plants increases, the market supply is sufficient, the enterprise is eager to ship, the price drops again and again, or there is a cost upside down phenomenon. In addition, the transaction price of raw gas on the 3rd is 3.6-3.61 yuan / m3, and the cost is reduced, which intensifies the bearish sentiment in the market, Bad domestic LNG market.

It can be seen from the weekly rise and fall from September 6 to November 28, 2021 that the domestic LNG cycle rose and fell with each other. The rise in the week of October 11 was as high as 17.75%, and then rose and fell with each other. The market was quite volatile.

At present, 7050-7250 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 6200-7000 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 6900-7500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 6460-7000 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 6300-6550 yuan / ton in Hebei, 6250-6700 yuan / ton in Henan and 6850 yuan / ton in Shandong. The price of air inlet is about 6400-7900 yuan / ton.

region Specifications December 3rd November 29th Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 6200-6650 7050-7250 – 850/-600

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 6200-7000 7000-7200 – 800/-200

Shanxi liquified natural gas 6200-6700 6900-7500 – 700/-800

Ningxia liquified natural gas 6460-7000 7110-7200 – 650/-200

Henan liquified natural gas 6250-6700 7100-7300 – 850/-600

Hebei liquified natural gas 6300-6550 7000-7200 – 700/-650

Overall rise of downstream products:

For methanol, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was lowered on December 2. The transaction price of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province was 2650-2680 yuan / ton and sent to cash exchange. The early-stage contract was mainly implemented, and the transaction was general. The transaction of methanol market in central Shandong was about 2670-2690 yuan / ton, which was sent to cash exchange. The quotation of local methanol factory in central Shandong fell to 2850-2900 yuan / ton, and the transaction was weak. The offer price of methanol in southern Shandong is 2880 yuan / ton, the factory provides cash exchange, Linyi receives the local offer price of about 2870 yuan / ton and sends it to cash exchange. The logistics offer price is low. The trading atmosphere was average.

Liquid ammonia, on the 3rd, Shandong liquid ammonia market continued to rise, with the increase mainly slowing down. The quotations of most manufacturers in the region were increased by about 50 yuan. The dealers’ offer tentatively increased, the market atmosphere improved, the downstream procurement was normal, the goods were just needed to be purchased. At present, with the normal shipment of manufacturers, the market supply pressure in the region is relieved compared with that in the early stage. At present, the mainstream market price in this region is 4350-4500 yuan / ton. It is expected that ammonia price may still have upward space in the near future.

Urea, the domestic urea market fell on December 3. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand increased slightly, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was accelerated, large urea purchase orders began to appear in downstream compound fertilizer plants, the inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. From the perspective of supply: the gas price of gas head enterprises increases, the maintenance increases, and the urea supply decreases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is better, the urea supply is insufficient, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that the domestic LNG supply is sufficient, the demand is poor, the enterprise shipment is not smooth, and the feed gas decreases, so it is difficult to find a good market. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will continue to decline in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell in early December, and the spot price of individual brands decreased significantly. As of December 2, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 38500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.90% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the recent domestic adipic acid price shock is weak. At present, the cost and supply and demand are bad for the adipic acid market, and the adipic acid price still has room to loosen. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, most domestic PA66 production loads are forced to operate at a low level.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is weak, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost end support of PA66 is weakened. At present, the operating rate of the industry is basically unchanged compared with the previous period, and it is still low due to the shortage of adiponitrile. In terms of imported materials, the overseas shipping capacity is low, the medium and long-term import and export goods of each port are insufficient, and the inventory position is not high. In terms of demand, the buyer took the goods slowly, the seller’s confidence weakened, and the offer decreased.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell this week. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not been improved, and adipic acid is weak. Due to the lack of raw materials, the overall load of the polymerization plant is low, and the support of the supply side to the spot is OK. However, the resistance of end users to high price goods sources has increased, the purchase and preparation operation tends to maintain production, and the on-site trading volume is weak. It is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a weak adjustment in the near future.

This month, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose first and then fell, and the price fell overall this month. But the range is not large. According to the monitoring of business society, the decline is 1.04%. In the first half of the month, the price of upstream acetic acid continued to rise, with obvious cost support. In addition, due to the equipment maintenance of main enterprises and the reduction of local supply, the contradiction of excess supply in the early stage of the market was greatly alleviated, and the bidding of large manufacturers was heated up, supporting the slight rise in the price of ethyl acetate. In the second half of the month, due to the lower price of raw acetic acid and the lack of follow-up demand, the delivery of ethyl acetate was passive and the price continued to fall. The price at the end of the month is in the range of 9150-9550 yuan / ton.

First of all, in terms of the upstream acetic acid market, the acetic acid price continued to rise in the first half of the month, mainly due to the tightening of supply, the extension and load reduction in Shaanxi, the shutdown and maintenance of Jiangsu Thorpe, the gradual easing of the industry inventory pressure, and the upward shift of the focus of acetic acid trading. The price of acetic acid began to decline in the middle and late part of the year. Although the Jiangsu Thorpe plant was shut down, there was a large amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage, the market entered the de inventory cycle, and some downstream entered the off-season in winter. The purchase of raw materials was mainly rational, and most of the contracts and Inventory were digested.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that in late November, the curve crossed, the decline of ethyl acetate was slower than that of upstream acetic acid, and the manufacturer’s profit continued to improve.

In addition, from the perspective of the supply side of ethyl acetate, first of all, on the supply side, ethyl acetate also experienced a process from supply shortage to easing. At first, the market was affected by the maintenance of main manufacturers in Shandong and the load reduction of some enterprises, resulting in little market inventory pressure. The wind direction changed in the second half of the month. On the one hand, the operating efficiency of the main factories was improved, and affected by the regional environmental protection policies and the poor transportation of the Winter Olympic Games, the delivery speed of manufacturers was affected to a certain extent, and the prices fell again and again.

On the demand side, in the whole month, the overall market demand remained stable, the demand growth was relatively weak, and the market ups and downs mostly came from the impact of cost and supply side. Especially after entering the middle and late November, terminal enterprises are in the off-season of production, new orders are limited, and downstream procurement slows down gradually. Bring bad news to ethyl acetate.

In the future, ethyl acetate analysts of business society believe that it is difficult to improve the recent cost acetic acid market, especially affected by the off-season demand, and the short-term short-term pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged. It is expected that the price of ethyl acetate is still easy to fall and difficult to rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 16175 yuan / ton on November 1, and the average ex factory price of domestic caprolactam liquid was 14700 yuan / ton on November 30. The price fell by 9.12% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of caprolactam in China fell this month. In the first half of November, due to the increase of caprolactam supply and the decline of raw materials, the price of caprolactam decreased rapidly. The decline of caprolactam slowed down in the second half of November. Enterprises take turns to repair devices for their own use, and the quotation of most enterprises is suspended. By the end of the month, Shandong Luxi Chemical had no quotation for caprolactam, the unit was in normal operation, mainly for self-use and production chips, and was not sold temporarily. The manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong caprolactam liquid has no quotation, with a capacity of 350000 tons / year, and the caprolactam unit is in normal operation. Hubei sanning caprolactam liquid has no quotation, and the 140000 T / a unit is in normal operation. Zhejiang Juhua has no quotation for caprolactam liquid, and the 100000 t / a unit is started normally. Shandong Haili caprolactam liquid has no quotation, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons. At present, the unit is shut down, and the restart time is to be determined.

Raw material pure benzene market this month. Affected by the weakness of crude oil and styrene, the pure benzene market mentality continued to be suppressed in the first half of the month, with the trend dominated by weak shocks. It is expected that the downstream units will restart and new units will be put into operation, the supply and demand side is expected to be good, and the market price support psychology still exists. The average price was 7640 yuan / ton on November 1 and 6390 yuan / ton on November 30. This month’s decline was 16.36%, an increase of 52.51% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that at present, the raw material pure benzene is still in a declining state, and the cost support is insufficient. Some enterprise devices were restarted, and the supply increased. The downstream slice Market is light, and the demand side has not improved. Under the dual pressure of cost and demand, caprolactam is expected to continue its weak downward operation in December.