Commodity name: TDI

Latest price (April 14): 19175 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is flat compared with the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market is weak. At present, the on-site trading atmosphere is light, the Shanghai TDI factory operates with reduced load, the market supply is tight, the transportation and logistics are blocked, the manufacturer’s shipment is not smooth, the transaction at the downstream terminal is general, the market demand is weak, there is little change in supply and demand, and the owner’s mentality is mainly wait-and-see. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 18500-18800 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 18800-19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: in the later stage, TDI market will wait and see the sorting and operation, and pay specific attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

The price of ethylene oxide remained stable, with the ex factory price of 8200 yuan / ton in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China and 8400 yuan / ton in Central China.

Upstream, there is limited downside space for oil prices, but regional demand continues to be weak, blockade restrictions inhibit market buying sentiment, and ethylene prices weaken slightly. Ethylene oxide today, Fushun Petrochemical slightly increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the market mentality fluctuated slightly. On the whole, the supply side of ethylene oxide Market is still abundant. The downstream demand is general, and the follow-up of terminal demand is slow. However, affected by the profit space, the manufacturer has an obvious mentality of supporting the market.

Forecast: in view of the current poor supply and demand situation and the spread of the epidemic, the market prospect has become uncertain again, and most people in the industry are stable.

In terms of devices, the 400000 ton syngas MEG new device in Guanghui, Hami, Xinjiang has produced excellent products today, and the current load is around 30%.

Crude oil fluctuated in the downward direction, and the cost support of ethylene glycol weakened. In the afternoon, Meg’s outer disk fluctuated in a narrow range, and the recent cargo negotiation estimated that it was around 650 US dollars / ton. Today, the commencement of ethylene glycol and polyester continued to decline, the terminal orders were not smooth, and the demand was soft.

Forecast: the fundamentals are empty, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level.

On the 11th, the domestic ethyl acetate Market rose steadily. The high price of raw acetic acid has obvious support for the downstream ethyl ester. Shandong’s main auction was changed to retail, and the transaction was good, which boosted market confidence. The price of East China manufacturers increased on Monday, driving the market atmosphere to pick up. However, at present, the market is still affected by the epidemic, the shipment in East and North China is still restricted, and the downstream just needs to follow up. The mainstream transaction price in the market is in the range of 8600-8800 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: domestic ethyl acetate is still boosted by the strength of acetic acid in the near future. The market supply and demand maintain a balanced situation. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the trend of raw material acetic acid. In the near future, the market mainly stops rising and stabilizes.

DOP prices fell slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOP price fell slightly in April, and the DOP market fell back. As of April 8, the DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton, down 0.41% from 12300 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. The market of plasticizer industry chain is weak, and the price of plasticizer DOP is weak to maintain stability.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and stabilized

According to the price monitoring of business society, the domestic isooctanol market fluctuated and adjusted in April, and the overall isooctanol price stabilized. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of isooctanol enterprises is limited, the terminal demand is poor, and the overall isooctanol market is relatively stable. The price of isooctanol is stable, the cost of DOP is stable, the upward momentum of DOP is weakened, and the downward pressure remains.

Phthalic anhydride prices fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April. As of April 8, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500.00 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fell sharply, the cost of phthalic anhydride fell, the impact of the epidemic, the operation of downstream plasticizer manufacturers fell, the demand for phthalic anhydride was insufficient, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. The cost of DOP raw materials decreased, the support of DOP rise weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future expectations

DOP data analysts of business agency believe that due to the impact of the epidemic, the start of plasticizer industry chain has declined, and the overall supply and demand are both weak; The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure remained. In the future, the supply and demand of plasticizer industry chain are both weak, and DOP price shock is expected to stabilize.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (April 7): 5270 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today’s acetic acid market is temporarily stable, and the average market price in East China is the same as yesterday. Affected by public health events, the logistics and transportation are not smooth, the shipment of enterprises is blocked, and the downstream follow-up purchase is limited. At present, the mentality of the industry remains wait-and-see, and the market quotation is strong.

Future forecast: the short-term acetic acid market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, with specific attention to the market supply.

Trade name: cryolite

Latest price (April 6): 7550 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: today, the cryolite market in Henan is on the sidelines, and the average production price in Henan is flat compared with the previous working day. At present, manufacturers have great pressure on production costs, low operating rate, low enterprise inventory, market procurement is mainly on demand, enterprise shipments are OK, cryolite manufacturers operate at a high price, and the mentality of the operators remains wait-and-see.

Future forecast: cryolite market runs smoothly and pays attention to market supply.

According to the data monitored by the business society, the PP market fluctuated in March. On the whole, the spot prices of various brands rose. As of March 31, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8990 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 5.64% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the propylene market trend in March is mainly divided into two stages, a substantial rise stage and a decline stage. In early March, the price of propylene rose rapidly to the highest average price of 9283 yuan / ton in the month, an increase of 10.08% over the beginning of the month. Mainly due to the tense situation in Ukraine, the market’s concern about the risk of supply interruption increased, and the rise of propylene increased under the strong pull of crude oil. Insufficient follow-up of demand in the latter half of the year, while the oil price fluctuated and fell. Under the influence of double bad news, propylene rose back and the focus of the market moved down. As of the end of the month, the market was low and volatile. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and volatile in the near future.

In terms of crude oil price shock, the upstream raw material price fell first and then the PP raw material cost fell directly. In the middle of the year, the international market also had differences on stopping the decline and returning the rise of crude oil, but the transmission of benefits was not smooth. At the end of the month, the situation in Russia and Ukraine reappeared the opportunity of easing, and the international crude oil fell again, which was bad for the polypropylene industry chain. In terms of supply, the supply of PP was abundant in March, and there were many inventories in enterprises and midstream. In the second half of the month, enterprises took the initiative to reduce the burden, which did not reach the expected scale, the operating rate of the industry was still high, and the profit of petrochemical plants was under pressure. The inventory pressure of merchants is the same, and buyers are more resistant to the supply of high priced goods. Generally, small orders are taken and followed up carefully. In terms of demand, there was no centralized delivery of goods by downstream enterprises this month, superimposed with the rebound of domestic health events, and the logistics and production in some areas were affected. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, enterprises are blocked from going to the warehouse, and the spot market is short.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by business society, as of March 31, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was similar to that of wire drawing materials. The mainstream offer price of domestic manufacturers and traders Z30S (fiber) is about 9016.67 yuan / ton. Compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, the rise and fall range is + 6.50%, with a year-on-year decrease of – 2.87%. In March, the main downstream non-woven enterprises of PP fiber materials started gradually, and the demand changed from weak to stable. Terminal enterprises tend to take goods just to maintain production, but the market is abundant and competitive. In March, the demand for medical fiber products increased significantly, and the increase of downstream orders also boosted the operating rate of fiber enterprises. Generally speaking, the supply of PP fiber materials was abundant in March, and the cost side bottomed out. It is expected that the operation will be weak in the later stage due to the weakening of the cost side.

In terms of meltblown materials, the meltblown PP market rose this month. As of March 31, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by business society was about 10283.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 6.20% compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. China has a large number of local diagnoses in the whole month of March, with a surge in epidemic prevention pressure. At the same time, it has a pulling effect on the demand for medical meltblown cloth materials. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is generally sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high, which suppresses the increase of meltblown materials. It is expected that the recent market of melt blown PP may still be strong.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business agency believe that: after the rise of domestic polypropylene market in March, the market of raw propylene surged and fell, the beneficial effect of crude oil cost turned from strong to weak, the boosting effect turned downward, and the transmission efficiency gradually decreased. Crude oil fell again at the end of the month, and the support of PP raw material end began to be empty. The demand of terminal enterprises remains weak, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the goods are taken carefully. At the end of the month, the offer of petrochemical plants was stable and rising, and the merchants had accumulated stock in stock. Their mentality was not strong, and the offer was lower. It is expected that the PP market may fall due to the weakening of far-end raw materials in early April.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the market price of 1# antimony ingots in East China was 83750 yuan / ton on March 31, unchanged from the previous trading day.

The rising power of antimony ingots weakened, and the overall market was temporarily stable after rising. However, the market trading is still active. The mentality of some cargo holders has changed and they are mainly active in shipping. The mentality of replenishment in the downstream is weak and there is no obvious demand release. With the price rising all the way, the market speculation funds have weakened, and the downstream is still maintaining rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend. In the future, we will focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises.

Monitoring shows that on March 31, Shanghai Rubber continued to rebound, closing at 13705 yuan / ton. The average spot market price of domestic natural rubber (standard I) in East China market was 13190 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.9% over the previous trading day and about 0.3% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis: supply side: Recently, the natural rubber supply side is normal. It is reported that the production shutdown period in Southeast Asia is about to pass and usher in a new round of rubber cutting period. The cutting in China’s Yunnan production area is gradually increasing. The cutting in Hainan production area is expected to start in mid April. It is expected that the overall rubber production will increase significantly after mid and late April, and the overall supply pressure will increase in the future, but the impact of the market on the expected increase in production has been gradually digested. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been widely affected by the epidemic. The epidemic peak of tire enterprises in Shandong has passed, and the operating rate of tire enterprises in the main production areas has gradually rebounded; However, due to the complex economic situation and the shortage of chips, the automotive industry continues to be depressed, but the demand for new energy vehicles is improving, and the demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted. In major domestic circulation places, such as Shanghai, the circulation of raw materials and automobile consumption demand have been greatly affected. Many rubber distribution and demand enterprises have shut down, the shipment and circulation of natural rubber raw materials have been blocked, and the inventory pressure of tire finished products has also increased. In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun. Import and export: customs statistics show that from January to February, China’s natural rubber imports totaled 998700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.88%, of which 574000 tons were imported in January, a year-on-year increase of 8.25%; In February, 424700 tons were imported, with a year-on-year increase of 33.98%. The reasons for the year-on-year increase in import volume are: on the one hand, the shipping market was sluggish in the second half of last year, and some shipping dates were delayed to arrive in January; On the other hand, the replacement indicators of last year were not completed as scheduled, and some of them were moved to this year.

Future forecast: at present, the logistics transfer of local goods in circulation, such as Shanghai, which is greatly affected by the epidemic, is blocked, and the demand is suppressed to a certain extent; It is expected that the short-term natural rubber market will maintain a volatile trend, the price will stabilize to a certain extent, and there may be a certain rebound demand in the short term. However, when the demand advantage is not obvious and the circulation is suppressed, the rebound range will be suppressed. We will focus on the increase of production in the production area and the impact of public health events.