Trade name: hydrochloric acid

Latest price (May 16): 300.00 yuan / ton

On May 16, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on May 13, with a year-on-year increase of 32.35%. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the price of downstream polyaluminium chloride has decreased slightly, the market of ammonium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, the rising power is insufficient, and the downstream purchase intention is general.

Recently, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate and fall slightly, and the average market price is about 290 yuan / ton.

The price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and rose this week

According to the data of business agency, the aluminum fluoride market picked up this week, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose. As of May 13, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 11200 yuan / ton, up 1.82% from 11000 yuan / ton on May 6 last weekend; The aluminum fluoride market picked up this week.

The price of raw materials rose strongly

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose by 0.43% this week; After the festival, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose by 1.38%. The overall raw material market is rising, the cost of aluminum fluoride is rising, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride is large.

Cryolite prices stopped falling and rose

According to the monitoring of business agency, the cryolite price stopped falling and warmed up this week, and the cryolite market warmed up. In early May, the high price of cryolite fell back. This week, the price of cryolite stopped falling and warmed up. The price of cryolite rose slightly, the demand for aluminum fluoride warmed up, the downstream demand warmed up, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite in the raw material market rose this week, and the cost of aluminum fluoride increased. Generally speaking, the rising cost and the recovery of demand are expected, and the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise in the future.

Key points of analysis: on the 12th, the domestic ethyl acetate Market mainly stabilized at a high level, and the prices of most large manufacturers remained high. The overhaul and sale of ethyl acetate plant in Shandong large factory was suspended, and the market supply was relatively short, resulting in the continuous rise of market price. However, the transaction situation is general. Today, the market atmosphere tends to be stable and the downstream holds a wait-and-see attitude. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is in the range of 8900-9100 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: domestic ethyl acetate will stop rising and stabilize in the near future. The market supply decreases, but the downstream resistance is obvious. We still need to pay attention to the trend of raw acetic acid in the short term, and the market may maintain a high trend in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the market price of 1# antimony ingots in East China was 80250 yuan / ton on May 11, unchanged from the previous trading day.

On the 11th, the market price of antimony ingots was temporarily stable. After the festival, the antimony ingot market still maintained a stable downward trend. The trading of orders at home and abroad was generally cold, the downstream demand was slow, and the overall procurement was based on demand. Under the environment of weak supply and demand and poor traffic, the market is expected to be weak, and the future market will focus on the transportation and downstream construction.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the price of antimony ingots continued to rise after the Spring Festival, remained stable and entered the downward channel recently.

1、 Price trend

Latest price (May 10): 8740 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 20, the average domestic spot price of pvc5 was 8740 yuan / ton, down 0.34% from the previous trading day and 5.51% year-on-year. At present, the futures price has fallen, the offer in the spot market has fallen, the market trading is relatively flat, the downstream demand continues to maintain the rigid demand, the wait-and-see attitude is obvious, and the focus of the PVC market has shifted downward. Up to now, the price of raw calcium carbide is about 3900-4300 yuan / ton, and the price of PVC is 8500-9100 yuan / ton.

The PVC market is expected to weaken.

On May 9, the rare earth index was 804 points, up 8 points from yesterday, down 20.16% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 196.68% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

The trend of domestic rare earth index rose, the price of domestic light rare earth praseodymium neodymium series rose, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 867500 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium neodymium metal rose by 5000 yuan / ton to 1055000 yuan / ton, the price of praseodymium oxide rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 910000 yuan / ton, the price of neodymium oxide rose by 20000 yuan / ton to 915000 yuan / ton, the price of metal praseodymium rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 119500 yuan / ton, and the price of metal neodymium rose by 10000 yuan / ton to 1105000 yuan / ton, The price of dysprosium oxide is 2.615 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.595 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium is 3.32 million yuan / ton. Some prices in the domestic light rare earth market have increased, and the recent procurement is general. The price of dysprosium in the domestic heavy rare earth market is temporarily stable, the price of terbium is higher, and the downstream procurement is mainly on demand. Myanmar prohibits export. It is expected that the price of domestic rare earth market will rise slightly in the later period.

Ethylene oxide remained stable this week. At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 8200 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the upcoming EU sanctions on Russian oil raised the prospect of tightening supply and freed the industry from concerns about global economic growth. Oil prices rose nearly 1.5% on Friday, rising for the second consecutive week, naphtha spot valuation rose, and the spot price spread remained stable at + 1.67 US dollars / barrel. Despite the high volatility of energy, the purchasing sentiment in the Asian market is still low, and the ethylene price continues to fall. At present, the latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 1190 US dollars / ton, down 20 US dollars / ton from the price of the previous trading day; The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was US $1240 / ton, down US $20 / ton from the price on the previous trading day; Luxi Chemical ethylene quoted 8600 yuan / ton today, and Jinshan Lianmao ethylene quoted 8400 yuan / ton today, which was the same as that of the previous trading day.

Ethylene prices have fallen, EO manufacturers’ profit margins have increased and cost pressures have eased. Based on the current external price, ethylene oxide profit margins are around 400 yuan. Taixing Jinyan ethylene oxide 200000 ton ethylene oxide unit has been restarted, some units of satellite Petrochemical have been shut down for a short time, and the market supply is stable. The current valuation of ethylene glycol fluctuates in the low range, and the support for ethylene oxide is not obvious.

The demand in the downstream monomer market is still weak, the supply side is low and fluctuates slightly, and the transportation restrictions continue, so the trading is still slightly cold.

Forecast: temporarily stable.

On May 6, the quotation range of 1# lead ingots in the domestic spot lead market was about 15550-15700 yuan / ton, and the average price was 15625 yuan / ton, up 25 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On Thursday night, the US dollar once again hit a high of 103.95. London metal was generally under pressure at night. Lun lead closed down, while Shanghai lead fell slightly by 0.06%. As of the closing on May 6, the Shanghai lead 2206 contract closed up by 0.10%. The spot market rose slightly following the trend of futures today. From the perspective of fundamentals, the downstream gradually entered the off-season, with limited support for the demand for lead ingots. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, and the off-season price will mainly follow the trend of futures market, It is expected to be dominated by overall shock.

Domestic cobalt price rose on May 5

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the cobalt price rebounded and rose on May 5, and the cobalt market recovered. On May 5, the price of cobalt was 541800 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from 540000 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; After the festival, the cobalt price rebounded and rose, and the cobalt market recovered.

Key points of analysis

The international cobalt price fluctuated and rose, with a large price difference at home and abroad; Tesla in Shanghai has resumed work and production, the installed capacity of ternary batteries is expected to rise, the demand of cobalt market is expected to pick up, the inflection point of the epidemic is not clear, the large-scale resumption of work and logistics transportation of enterprises have not been fully recovered, and the industrial chain of cobalt City is limited, and the supply and demand are both weak; The price rise of new energy vehicles was transmitted to the terminal, and the sales of new energy vehicles were lower than expected. Affected by rainstorms and floods, transportation in South Africa is blocked, and the supply of cobalt ore is expected to be limited in the future, and the rising power of cobalt market is increased.

Future forecast

The resumption of work is coming one after another, the demand is slowly picking up, the transportation in South Africa is blocked, the supply of cobalt market is reduced, and the cobalt price is expected to rise slowly in the future.

Aluminum prices fell weakly in April

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on April 29 was 20826.67 yuan / ton, down 8.41% from the average market price of 22740 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (4.1).

Based on the peak value in 2021 (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 24240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 14.08% from the peak value recently. Starting from the recent recovery (December 13, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingot is 18693.33 yuan / ton, up 11.41% recently.

Fundamental analysis

1. Raw material end – alumina

Recently, the supply of domestic raw material alumina is relatively tight. According to the data, the output of alumina in March 2022 was 6.342 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%. Recently, the supply of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan and Guizhou is in a tight pattern. Under the influence of the epidemic and the tightening of bauxite supply, some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are facing increased risk of production reduction, and some alumina enterprises in Guizhou are still running with reduced load; The logistics factors in the circulation chain were restricted in the early stage. At present, the transportation in Shandong and Henan is gradually recovering. In terms of import volume, the import volume of alumina from January to March 2022 was 603100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20.23%.

2. The external atmosphere is expected to improve

The early European energy crisis led to a systematic rise in electricity prices in Europe, an increase in the cost of electricity for aluminum plants, and frequent production cuts in aluminum plants in Western Europe. At present, due to the high processing fee and high water rise in Europe, the supply of aluminum plants in production shows signs of recovery. In addition, electrolytic aluminum in Southeast Asia, South America and the Middle East has plans to expand and resume production, showing an accelerated trend. The tense atmosphere of aluminum supply in the outer disk has gradually subsided and is expected to improve.

3. Domestic data

Import and export data: in March, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum was 394.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 55.11%. From January to March 2022, China imported 965.51 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, a year-on-year decrease of 34.15%. From January to March 2022, the total domestic net import was 23400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 92.9%.

Capacity and output data: in March, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.32 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.92%. At the end of the first quarter, the built capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum reached 44.07 million tons and the operating capacity reached around 39.97 million tons. In April, the resumption of production of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises was mainly concentrated in the southwest. Since the beginning of the year, the resumption of production in Yunnan has reached 940000 tons, and the resumption of production progress has exceeded 60% compared with the reduction of production capacity last year. The resumption of production progress of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Qinghai is also accelerating. In April, the domestic operation capacity was around 40 million tons.

Downstream terminal data: in March, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 23.4% and 28.4%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and 11.7%. From January to March, the automobile production and sales were 6.484 million and 6.599 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0% and 0.2%, and the growth rate was 6.8% and 7.3% lower than that from January to February.

Future forecast

In the early stage, the external supply is expected to digest, and the benefits of overseas supply gradually subside; In terms of domestic situation, the supply side has increased the market supply due to the promotion of the planned new production capacity and resumption of production. However, due to transportation factors, the overall arrival volume of the warehouse is not high, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has been removed recently. The downstream terminal consumption is expected to improve in the later stage. It is expected that the price of electrolytic aluminum will remain weak and stable in the short term, and the downward space will gradually narrow.