Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, from 3034.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2848.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 6.13%, up 3.19% year-on-year over the same period last year. On July 10, the urea commodity index was 133.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 12.43% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (2022-05-15), and up 139.93% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is low

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week.

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, from 5918.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5816.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.72%, up 47.99% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 9233.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 8800.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.69%.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is weakening, and industrial rigid demand is dominant. Agricultural demand in some areas has been eliminated. Compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories are generally started, and just need to purchase. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. There is a strong sentiment of buying up or not buying down. From the perspective of supply, some manufacturers have started maintenance, and the daily output of urea is less than 150000 tons.

Urea prices hit the bottom in the aftermarket and rebounded mainly in a narrow range

In mid July, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The agricultural demand in the downstream is weakened, the industry just needs to improve, and the export of urea is limited. The daily output of urea is low. Recently, urea may rise in a narrow range.

On July 13, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Due to different production fuels, there was a large gap in manufacturers’ quotations. The mainstream of on-site negotiation was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the price quotation in Hebei was 5200-5300 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream raw material market fell, and the price of nitric acid fell slightly. The rise in raw material prices has a certain cost support for the ammonium nitrate Market, but the sales of the downstream civil explosive industry have come to an end, and the on-site supply of goods has been normal recently, The market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable, and it is expected that the price trend may decline in the later period. The market prices of ammonium nitrate in some parts of China are as follows:

Region, Price (yuan / ton), Rise and fall (yuan / ton)

Hebei region, 5200-5300., 0

Henan Province, 4500-4600., 0

Shaanxi region, 5000-5200., 0

Yunnan, 2900-3100., 0

On July 12, the mainstream quotation range of 1 × tin ingot in the domestic spot tin market was 199000-203000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 201000 yuan / ton, an increase of 8000 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

On the night of the 11th, the US dollar rose sharply, the crude oil price fell significantly, and the metal market showed mixed performance last night, with Lun Xi leading the rise of 2% and Shanghai tin rising more than 3%. In the morning trading today, Shanghai tin continued its upward trend at night and continued to lead the metal market. As of the close, the Shanghai tin 2208 contract closed up 2.45%, and most of the spot market rose by 8000-10000 yuan / ton today. In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. The downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the start-up of tin solder enterprises is generally low. In the near future, the trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that the trend of tin price will remain wide and volatile.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on July 8:

Qingdao refinery quoted 8450 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery quoted 8300 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 8350 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 8600 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 8600 yuan / ton,

Changling Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8700 yuan / ton,

Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, although the risk of global economic recession is still on, the demand for fuel oil is strong, and the market focus returns to the fundamentals of supply shortage.

Crude oil rose on Friday, while mixed xylene in Asia continued to decline in the external market, with bad external news. Domestic market negotiation is light, mixed xylene supply is tight, and the trend is stable.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou fell this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 37600 yuan / ton last Friday, and 34800 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 7.45% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus fell this week. At present, there are more inquiries in the yellow phosphorus market, but there are few transactions, and more purchases are made at lower prices. Some manufacturers will not make external quotations for the time being. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 33500 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 34000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 34500-35000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market as a whole continued to operate at a high level and strong. The supply of phosphate rock in the quarry continues to be tight, and the shortage of medium and high-grade phosphate ore is still the same. The circulating supply of phosphate rock in the mine is limited. Many large factories mainly use phosphate rock for their own use, and there is no saleable supply externally. Some mines in Guangxi and Guizhou mainly receive orders in advance, and mining enterprises in Hebei mainly supply shareholders. As of July 5, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 1030-1100 yuan / ton, and the market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 930-980 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid fell slightly this week. The average price of phosphoric acid was 10770 yuan / ton last Friday and 10100 yuan / ton this Friday. During the week, the price decreased by 6.22%. At present, the downstream demand is poor, and the procurement is cautious. The phosphoric acid market is expected to be weak in the short term.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that the yellow phosphorus will be reduced this week. The price of phosphate rock in the upstream is relatively stable, while the market price of phosphate rock in the downstream is falling, and the phosphate Market is weak. On the whole, the market demand is poor, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Yellow phosphorus prices are expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1463 yuan / ton on July 1, and 1463 yuan / ton on July 7. The price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week. At present, there is no good news in the ammonium sulfate field, the market is depressed, and the trend is weak. Domestic and foreign market demand is poor, and the industry is mainly on the sidelines. Urea prices fell this week, which is bad for the market of ammonium sulfate. As of July 7, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1400 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1420 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Heilongjiang is 1200-1320 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of Hexian ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1450-1520 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market was weak this week, and the demand began to weaken. The price of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, fell, and the cost pressure of compound fertilizer decreased. At present, the new orders of compound fertilizer are limited, the demand side is mainly on the sidelines, and the short-term stalemate operation is mainly.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The ammonium sulphate analyst of the business agency believes that the recent ammonium sulphate market is weak, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the enterprise sells at a stable price. Exports are resistant to high priced ammonium sulfate, and there is no favorable direction at present. It is expected that the ammonium sulfate Market will be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 6, the price of MTBE in Shandong was 8620 yuan / ton, up 0.52% month on month and 39.11% year on year. Crude oil fell sharply, negative market mentality, coupled with the recent weak demand, business sales pressure is becoming apparent.

DOP prices fell sharply in June

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market demand in the off-season was insufficient, and the DOP price fell sharply in June, the largest monthly decline of 17.94% in a year. As of June 30, the DOP price was 9775 yuan / ton, down 17.94% from 11912.5 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. DOP prices hit the largest monthly decline, and DOP prices re entered the era of 1000 yuan.

The price of isooctanol plummeted in June

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol plummeted in June. As of June 30, the price of isooctanol was 9100 yuan / ton, down 26.81% from 12433.33 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. As the off-season hit, the price of isooctanol plummeted in June, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on DOP increased.

The high price of phthalic anhydride fell in June

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of phthalic anhydride first rose and then fell in June, and the phthalic anhydride market peaked and fell. As of June 30, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8575 yuan / ton, down 1.15% from the mid month high of 8675 yuan / ton; Compared with the price of 8300 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month, the price increased by 3.31%. With the arrival of the off-season, the price of phthalic anhydride peaked and fell in June, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, and the driving force of DOP price rise weakened.

Aftermarket expectations

According to DOP data analysts of business news agency, the start-up of downstream enterprises was low in June, the plasticizer market was in the off-season, downstream enterprises reduced production and stopped production more, and the demand for plasticizers was insufficient; The price of isooctanol fell sharply, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of plasticizer DOP fell, and the price of DOP fell sharply; The cumulative shutdown in the off-season of the market increased, the downstream demand of DOP was insufficient, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the upward momentum weakened. Generally speaking, the off-season is coming, the price of raw materials is falling, the demand is insufficient, and the downward pressure on DOP is increasing. It is expected that the future DOP price will fluctuate and fall.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 4, the average price of pet water bottle manufacturers was 9340.00 yuan / ton. In June, the pet market price rose by 2.19% compared with the same period last month, or 200 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price range is 9200-9400 yuan / ton. The market supply and demand is balanced, and the supply side is normal.

In the first ten days of June, the domestic pet price mainly operated stably, the price fluctuation was not obvious, and there was a narrow upward trend. The manufacturers shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the operating rate was normal, and the market transaction atmosphere was general. At present, the overall negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, the downstream readiness for goods was general, and the cost was lack of support. At present, the mainstream price was about 8700 yuan / ton. The price rose slightly this week, and maintained a strong operation in the short term, Rubber and plastic commodity index: on June 8, the rubber and plastic index was 806 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 23.96% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 52.65% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In the middle of June, pet prices were mainly stable, narrow and weak, the operating rate was normal, the manufacturers shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the operating rate was normal, and the market transaction atmosphere was general. At present, the overall negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, the willingness of downstream goods preparation was general, and the cost was lack of support. At present, the mainstream price was about 9500 yuan / ton. The price rose slightly this week, and maintained a strong operation in the short term. The rubber and plastic commodity index: the rubber and plastic index was 800 points on June 19, It was unchanged from yesterday, down 24.53% from the highest point 1060 in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 51.52% from the lowest point 528 on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In late June, the domestic pet price was in a narrow range and weak operation, and the price was slightly reduced this week. At present, the market operating rate is normal, the manufacturers’ shipment is positive, the logistics is smooth, the profit is given away, the market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is acceptable, the willingness of downstream goods preparation is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 9500 yuan / ton, which was slightly reduced this week, and pet is stable, medium and weak in the short term. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai quyi Industrial Co., Ltd. 9150 yuan / ton, Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 9800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Group Co., Ltd. 9200 yuan / ton, upstream ethylene glycol: on June 22, the spot price of ethylene glycol in South China market was 4975 yuan / ton, which was 50 yuan / ton lower than the previous trading day and 123.33 yuan / ton lower than last week. Recently, the ethylene glycol market has been dominated by weak operation

Rubber and plastic commodity index: on July 3, the rubber and plastic index was 765 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.83% from the peak of 1060 points in the cycle (2012-03-14), and up 44.89% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Pet analysts of business agency believe that the pet market is expected to run smoothly in July. (if you want to know more about the latest market trends of the industrial chain, please pay attention to the official account of the business club to obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market remained weak this week, and the spot prices of some brands fell. As of July 1, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business club was about 23500 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -1.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid price fell this week. After the rise of upstream pure benzene, cyclohexanone fell sharply, and the negative cost side intensified. In addition, the market demand is light, the manufacturers are unable to deliver goods, and the inventory pressure is obvious. It is expected that adipic acid price may still have downward space in the near future.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market has weakened, adiponitrile market is abundant, and PA66 cost side support is poor. In terms of industry operating rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises, the domestic PA66 industry load level was reduced by a narrow margin this week, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods and follow up, preferring just to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price supply. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories shrinks, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The transaction on the floor fell, and the seller’s mentality was not good, so he gradually tried to reduce the yield order.

Aftermarket forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell this week. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is weakened. The load of PA66 enterprises is reduced in a narrow range, which has a very limited effect on the pressure reduction of the supply side. The demand side is short of goods, buying up rather than buying down, and the market trading continues to be sluggish. It is expected that PA66 will continue to be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term and continue the weak market.