On August 29, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 85.72, which was the same as yesterday, down 20.75% from 108.17 points (June 15, 2022), the highest point in the cycle, and up 185.83% from 29.99 points, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2013 to now).
In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price declined by 5.64% in August. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.06/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $99.01/barrel. The decline of crude oil price is mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data is generally weak, which once again causes the market to worry about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the negotiation results of the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which puts pressure on the international oil price. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + has actually reserved more space for production increase. Finally, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase its additional capacity by about 1.3 million barrels per day, which is also a reversal of the market’s view on the supply tightening expectation and a decline in the trend of international oil prices. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession. In a comprehensive view, the crude oil price trend declined in August.
On August 29, international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was reported at US $97.01/barrel, an increase of US $3.95 or 4.24%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $102.93/barrel, an increase of US $3.92 or 3.96%. Helped by the expectation that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) may reduce production, superimposed on the armed conflict in Libya; The positive effect of supply tightening has played down the negative impact of the global economic recession.
Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)
Date., Adjusted price., Adjustment amount
August 2., 8650。，- two hundred
August 4., 8450。，- two hundred
August 5., 8150。，- three hundred
August 11, 7950, – 200
August 16, 7750, – 200
August 18., 7500, – 250
August 30., 7600., + 100
In August 2022, Sinopec’s ex factory price of pure benzene was lowered six times in a row, with only one increase at the end of the month, from 8650 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 7600 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative decrease of 1050 yuan / ton. As of 30th, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.
Quotations of other enterprises: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 7503 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 7550 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 7750 yuan / ton.
In August 2022, the hydrogenated benzene market continued to decline. The ex factory price in North China was 9062.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 7633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 15.77%.
Domestic market price of main hydrogenated benzene in August (unit: yuan / ton)
The market, the price on July 28, and the price on August 30, rose and fell
East China, 8950-9050, 7550-7650, – 1400
Shandong, 8700 ~ 8750, 7600 ~ 7700, – 1100
Looking at the trend in August, it can be seen that the two rounds of decline of hydrogenated benzene this month are concentrated in the beginning of August and the middle of August. At the beginning of August, international crude oil futures fell continuously on August 4, falling to the lowest point since February. The bad news on the market demand side played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the economic data of many countries showed that the PMI data of major economies in the world in July was weak, which intensified the market’s concern about economic recession. On August 1, WTI fell by more than 4%. Although the overall supply of pure benzene in the same period was in a tight environment, affected by the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant decline of pure benzene in the external market, the support for pure benzene from external news was weak, and the demand for pure benzene slowed down due to the increase of load reduction and shutdown maintenance in the downstream at the same period. The downstream demand did not follow up well, and the pure benzene market was under pressure at the beginning of the month. Sinopec reduced the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a cumulative reduction of 700 yuan / ton, which once again affected the market mentality, As a result, the price of hydrogenated benzene dropped significantly during the same period. Another round of decline was concentrated in the middle of August. Crude oil fell for three consecutive days due to the market’s growing concern about the global economic outlook. In terms of pure benzene, some early-stage shutdown and maintenance devices were restarted one after another in the middle of August, resulting in an increase in domestic pure benzene supply. In terms of port cargo source, the imported cargo in the same period was concentrated in the port. The inventory of East China port increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons in one week. The accumulated inventory of the port was obvious, and the overall supply side was mainly negative. In terms of demand, most downstream products lost money in the same period, there were many shutdown load reduction devices, and the demand for pure benzene was insufficient. During the same period, Sinopec has reduced the ex factory price of pure benzene for two consecutive times, with a cumulative decrease of 450 yuan / ton. The market negative factors are concentrated, and the price of pure benzene has been reduced intensively. In the same period, the market price of hydrogenated benzene is greatly affected by the industrial chain, and the decline is obvious.
In the future, the business community thinks that the recent crude oil price fluctuation is upward, and the basic support is strong. However, the overall inventory in East China is still high. The delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month is basically completed, and the downstream demand is not improved well. The rise of styrene price on the 30th boosted the mentality of pure benzene. Sinopec increased the price of pure benzene, and the local refining price also increased. In general, at present, the downstream demand is limited and the market transaction is limited. It is expected that the price of the industrial chain will be greatly affected by the fundamentals in the near future. In the future, the price of hydrogenated benzene will mainly fluctuate at a high level. We will focus on the trend of crude oil and the impact of downstream demand on the trend of the industrial chain.