1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic LNG was 6670 yuan/ton on October 8, and 6390 yuan/ton on October 14. Domestic LNG prices fell 4.20% this week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Domestic LNG prices rose first and then fell this week. On October 8, domestic LNG prices began to rise to this Tuesday. After the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals returned to normal, and downstream replenishment increased. The price of LNG continued to rise under the favorable situation of demand follow-up. Transportation is limited in some regions due to the epidemic situation, while liquid prices in other regions are higher, with obvious regional differences. On Wednesday, domestic LNG prices began to fall, and the demand for downstream replenishment turned weak. The epidemic situation has a great impact on upstream shipment, and the market continues to fall. In the afternoon of Friday, the feed gas auction of PetroChina Direct Supply Fluid Plant was dominated by the wait-and-see LNG market, and the market stopped falling temporarily. The final auction price was 3.34-3.54 yuan/ton, with an average price of 0.16 yuan/m3 compared with the previous period, and a trading volume of 80 million m3. As of October 14, Inner Mongolia offered 6250-6550 yuan/ton, Shaanxi 6650-7060 yuan/ton, Shanxi 6850-7300 yuan/ton, Ningxia 6560-6780 yuan/ton, Hebei 7500-7900 yuan/ton, Henan 7250-8000 yuan/ton, Sichuan 6650-6900 yuan/ton, and Shandong 7850-7950 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic LNG on October 14 was 6390 yuan/ton, 444 yuan/ton lower than the price of 6834 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, a decline of 6.49%, and 4.82% lower than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that this week, due to the increase of downstream replenishment after the festival and the obstruction of epidemic control and transportation in some regions, the LNG market has improved first and then slowed down. On Friday afternoon, the bidding price of direct feed gas from PetroChina rose slightly, and the demand for downstream replenishment decreased. It is expected that the price of LNG will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffins 52 was 6166 yuan/ton on October 8, and 6200 yuan/ton on October 13. This week, the price of chlorinated paraffins rose 0.54%.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin rose slightly this week, and the domestic operating rate was about 60%. The raw material liquid chlorine is the main player in the market, the overall price of raw material liquid wax drops, and the cost side runs in shock. At present, the market atmosphere of chlorinated paraffins is light and the trading volume is average. As of October 13, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffins 52 in Anhui Province was about 6600 yuan/ton, that in Northeast China was about 5800 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Province was about 6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the market price of liquid wax fell this week, and the liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the market price of liquid chlorine rose this week. Due to the strong price of liquid chlorine, chlorinated paraffins manufacturers are mainly very expensive, and they are cautious about the raw material market.

3、 Future market forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business community believe that the trend of liquid chlorine as the raw material of chlorinated paraffin is upward in the near future, and the cost has certain support. The demand for chlorinated paraffins in the field is not good, and the downstream just needs to be purchased, and the demand side is not good. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffins will operate stably in the short term under the downturn of market trading and investment.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 12, 2022, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price reference of the silicone DMC market in the mainstream regions of China is 17580 yuan/ton, which is 620 yuan/ton lower than the price on October 2, 2022 (18200 yuan/ton), a decrease of 3.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the overall domestic silicone DMC market is in a weak downward trend after returning from the National Day holiday in October. Two days before coming back after the festival, Shandong Dachang silicone DMC quoted 17500 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as several days before the festival. The news of silicone DMC on the market was relatively calm, and the market was mainly consolidated. On the 10th, some silicone DMC suppliers with higher prices before the festival started the profit giving shipping mode, and the actual order can be negotiated about 300-500 yuan/ton. 11. On the 12th, the weak decline trend of the silicone DMC market continued. The quotation of Shandong Dachang silicone DMC was lowered to 17300 yuan/ton, and other monomer plants and suppliers in the market continued to hold discussion space. As of October 12, the market price of domestic silicone DMC is around 17300-17500 yuan/ton, and some high quotations are 18000 yuan/ton.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, after the National Day holiday, the domestic metal silicon (product name: 441 #) market situation was stable. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of metal silicon was 21250 yuan/ton on October 11, a decrease of 0.05% compared with October 1 (21260.00).

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At present, the overall stock preparation of the middle and lower reaches of the organosilicon DMC is still cautious, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The contradiction between supply and demand in the field is obvious. It is heard that some monomer devices will have a reduced maintenance plan in the near future. The supply side will actively ship, while the demand side will continue to stock up just in time. The organosilicon DMC data analyst of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market will be mainly weak, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8666.67 yuan/ton as of October 11, up 1.17% from October 8, up 10.64% from September 11, and down 23.53% year on year in a three-month cycle.

In the near future (10.8-10.11), the acrylic acid market has risen steadily. After the festival, the market price of raw propylene rose, the cost support was strengthened, and the load of some units was limited. In addition, the downstream buyer was more active, and the focus of acrylic acid market negotiation was steadily rising. The downstream was cautious and wait-and-see after the price increase, and the procurement was mainly just needed.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene was 7780.60 on October 10, up 2.1% compared with October 1 (7620.60).

Acrylic acid analysts from the business community believe that the current raw material propylene market is strong, the cost support is still strong, the supply and demand side procurement is mainly just in demand, and the market transaction is moderate. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will be strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 10th, the average price of nickel in the spot market was 185983.33 yuan/ton, down 2.71% from the previous trading day and up 29.39% year on year.

The rising interest rate increase helped the US dollar, and Rennie closed 1.45% lower the next week. The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate increase is approaching step by step, which makes investors worry that the global economy is in recession. Influenced by macro sentiment, the nickel market is under pressure, the inventory of Lunni is rebounding, and refined nickel is largely replaced by nickel intermediates. Poor market demand will lead to excess nickel supply. The fundamentals of nickel supply and demand did not change much during the holiday, and the overall situation was dominated by macro changes. The domestic pre festival replenishment has reduced the low level of nickel and stainless steel stocks. After the festival, we will pay attention to the willingness of downstream customers to take more goods. Ferronickel import supply is loose, and domestic inventory is at a relatively high level. With regard to the future market, nickel demand is driven by new energy batteries, and the improvement of downstream stainless steel demand depends on the promotion of Baojiao Building. In October, nickel and stainless steel are expected to show a weak pattern of shock.

Influenced by the epidemic situation of New Coronary Pneumonia, the use of protective clothing and masks has soared, and the price of spandex has risen since August 2020 due to the expansion of the application field of spandex. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the 40D specification has risen from 31100 yuan/ton to 83750 yuan/ton in August 2021, an increase of 169.29%, a new high in nearly a decade. Subsequently, due to the weakening of downstream demand and the increase of polyurethane fiber supply, it entered a rapid decline channel from the fourth quarter of 2021, and fell back to the level two years ago by August 2022.

However, in September, the polyurethane fiber market stopped falling and recovered. As of September 30, the average market price was 35000 yuan/ton, up 7.03% from the beginning of the month. Due to the firm BDO price, it has formed a good support for the cost of polyurethane raw material PTMEG. In addition, the terminal demand of “Jinjiu” has warmed up, which alleviates the inventory pressure of the polyurethane factory. The inventory of individual specifications and models is tight, and the current market as a whole shows signs of improvement.

High cost and tight spot are good supports. Traders are reluctant to sell and pull up the price. The polyurethane raw material market is on the rise. In September, PTMEG prices were raised after consolidation, and the industry started at a low level of 4.9%. With the rise of BDO prices on the cost side, the factory’s intention to raise prices was strengthened. As of the end of the month, the domestic PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) market negotiation evaluation was 18000-19000 yuan/ton, and some specifications were not reported. The pure MDI market experienced a strong pull up, and the rise slowed down at the end of the month. At present, the reference price of the local market is 20200-20500 yuan/ton of telegraphic transfer in barrels.

Driven by the price rise of spandex, the terminal consumption of superimposed “Golden Ninth” has gradually entered the traditional peak season. Orders have been placed in autumn and winter, releasing the demand for staged replenishment. In terms of construction, the construction of round machine and wrapped yarn in Xiaoshao area of Zhejiang Province started at 30% to 50%; The starting level of the round knitting machine market in Jiangsu is 3-4%, and the starting level of the wrapped yarn and warp knitting market is 5-6.5%; Guangdong started cautiously, with an overall level of 3.5-6.50%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw materials will still rise slightly, and the cost side support remains. However, the demand for replenishment in the downstream terminal market may be overdrawn in advance before the festival, and after the festival, it will remain just in need to follow up and be cautious. Superimposed new production capacity will also form a certain resistance to price rise. It is expected that the price of spandex in October will increase in a narrow range.

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the formaldehyde market in Shandong rose this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the week was 1336.67 yuan/ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the weekend was 1403.33 yuan/ton, up 4.99%. The current price rose 9.64% month on month, and the current price fell 23.45% year on year.

formaldehyde

The price of formaldehyde market in Shandong Province rose this week. From the figure above, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market in the past two months has been dominated by a small upward trend, and this week’s rise has expanded. As of October 8, the mainstream market price in Shandong was 1380-1430 yuan/ton. Recently, the methanol market has risen sharply, with strong cost support. The demand of the downstream panel plants is general, and the purchase is still in demand. The transaction in the formaldehyde market is fair. The manufacturers normally ship, and the market continues to rise driven by the cost.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has risen recently. Some traders offer no goods. The price of coal is firm, raw materials support the methanol market, and there is a strong intention to prepare downstream goods before the festival. There is a slight difference between regions. Some regions are short of supply and have strong demand. Some regions have sufficient supply and general demand. The trend of methanol market is slightly different between regions.

This week, the methanol market continued to rise, and the cost level remained high. Driven by the rising cost, formaldehyde manufacturers led the market to rise in order to make profits. At present, the operating rate of formaldehyde manufacturers has risen, and the supply of goods is sufficient. Downstream plate plants maintain just need to purchase. The market transaction is general, and the formaldehyde market mainly rises with the rising cost.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has increased greatly, and the procurement of downstream wood panel plants has maintained a strong demand. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative predicted that the recent increase of formaldehyde prices in Shandong was mainly due to shock.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride fell sharply this month, from 4633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4066.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 12.23%. The factory price of potassium chloride in China is temporarily stable. The factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes this month is 4480.00 yuan/ton. It is reported that potassium chloride in the salt lake may fall by more than 1000 yuan in October. On September 30, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 107.02, unchanged from yesterday, 26.06% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 144.74 (2022-06-21), and 10.66% higher than the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now) (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of domestic mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers fell slightly this month: the ex factory quotation of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month was about 4480 yuan/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price was temporarily stable, mainly based on contracts. At the end of this month, Xiangyang Youdeshi’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, a drop of 400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4200 yuan/ton, a drop of 650 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. At the end of this month, Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride dealer quoted 4000 yuan/ton, a drop of 650 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of this month. At the end of the month, 62% of the white potassium in the port was about 3800-4000 yuan/ton, 60% of the red granules in the port was about 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and 62% of the Russian white potassium in the border trade was about 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate fell slightly this month, from 9475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9375.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.06%, 17.55% higher than the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate fell slightly this month, from 6800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6525.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 5.51%, 18.43% higher than the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride fell slightly, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of potassium chloride in the first half of October may slightly fluctuate, mainly finishing. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was stable, and the new price was implemented in October, or fell sharply. The price of imported potassium chloride fell slightly. The downstream agricultural demand is weakened, the industrial demand is general, and the rigid demand procurement is dominant. In the future, the price of potassium chloride may fall in shock.