According to the monitoring of the business community, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined slightly in October, and the domestic rare earth market declined slightly. On October 31, the rare earth index was 650 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 35.45% from the peak of 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and up 139.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The prices of domestic metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined by different degrees in Chengdu. As of the end of the month, the price of praseodymium and neodymium metal was 795000 yuan/ton, down 2.45% in October; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 652500 yuan/ton, down 2.97%; The price of neodymium oxide was 745000 yuan/ton, down 1.32%; The price of neodymium metal was 920000 yuan/ton, which was flat in October; The price of praseodymium metal was 945000 yuan/ton, down 5.03%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 725000 yuan/ton, down 2.68%.

The circulation of light rare earths in China has decreased, but the enterprises have overstocked inventories, coupled with poor downstream procurement after the festival, and the market price of light rare earths has declined. The supply of light rare earths is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia. Due to the blockade of Baotou and other regions, the manufacturer’s shipment is limited. At present, there is no notice on the exact release date. The production of enterprises is relatively normal, but the shipment is difficult, and the spot supply has decreased. In the near future, downstream businesses have been well stocked before the National Day holiday, and some manufacturers have mainly digested the inventory after the holiday. The purchasing mood is not good, resulting in few orders, difficulty for dealers to ship, and low transaction prices.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has dropped. As of the end of the month, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.29 million yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.43%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.29 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.66%; The price of dysprosium metal was 2.975 million yuan/ton, down 0.67%; The price trend of domestic terbium series is declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.3 million yuan/ton, and the price of metal terbium is 16.55 million yuan/ton. The price of heavy rare earths fluctuated mainly. The raw material inventory of the separation enterprises in the regions where rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The production enterprises began to work gradually. The rare earth market atmosphere improved. In addition, the export of Myanmar was limited, and the global supply of rare earths was relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great influence on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth on the market has little change.

According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is guaranteed. According to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the production and sales of automobiles in China will be 2.672 million and 2.61 million respectively in September 2022, up 28.1% and 25.7% year on year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 700000, a record high. The production and sales of automobiles rose significantly, the demand in the new energy field was still supported, and the domestic light rare earth market declined slightly.

The new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioners in the downstream of rare earths have achieved sustainable development. Due to repeated epidemics in some regions and limited downstream procurement, the orders of magnetic material enterprises have been poor recently. Downstream businesses mainly digest inventory. However, with the start of the rare earth peak season, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, expects that the decline of rare earth market is limited, and there is still a trend of recovery in the later period.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the PC market fell in October, and the spot prices of various brands stabilized after falling. As of October 31, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of the business community was about 18366.67 yuan/ton, up or down by – 2.99% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the bisphenol A market fell sharply due to the overall decline of the industrial chain after the festival and the negative effects of supply and demand as well as the decline of two consecutive auctions. In addition, the industrial load has increased, the upstream and downstream are weak and resonant, and the decline of the entire industrial chain has intensified. In the middle of the month, the price has dropped to near the cost. In addition, the low price supply has stimulated downstream replenishment. The market momentum has warmed up, and the price rebounded in the second half of the month.

In the first half of October, the bisphenol A market declined significantly, and the PC cost side support collapsed. In terms of industry load, Shandong PC enterprises had a certain scale of maintenance this month, and the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises declined gradually from 55% to more than 40%. The supply of goods in the market was generally abundant in the month. In the second half of the month, the supply was tightened by a narrow margin, and the pressure on the supply side improved slightly. The downstream actual demand does not match the traditional peak season of “Yinshi”, and the actual demand is less than that of previous years. The terminal enterprises just need to maintain production, and the on-site PC digestion speed lags behind. The merchants gave up their profits to encourage buyers to enter the market, and the market offer warmed up to an average price of more than 18000 yuan/ton in the last ten days, but the PC real order delivery is still not much.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believed that the domestic PC market stabilized after the fall in October, the upstream bisphenol A market fell back to a warmer level, and the cost side did not support PC well. On the supply side, the supply side’s supply of goods on the market tightened slightly due to the expansion of capacity loss in the month, and the pressure on the supply side eased slightly. The demand is weak. In the second half of the month, some businesses followed up to make concessions, most of which were scattered small orders. The market is full and empty, and it is expected that the PC spot price will be adjusted to operate in a narrow range in the near future.