According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of asphalt continues to decline, mainly due to the demand side. Affected by weather factors, downstream terminal demand continues to be sluggish. From December 2 to 9, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong fell from 3569 yuan/ton to 3475 yuan/ton, down 2.64%, 17.89% month on month and 10.6% year on year.

On the cost side, the international crude oil price fell to the lowest level in the year. As of the 7th day, the settlement price of the main contract of the WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 72.01 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 77.17 dollars/barrel. Due to the performance of some US economic data exceeding expectations, the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppresses the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s desire to slow interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. In general, the weak operation of international crude oil can hardly support the refinery cost, and the asphalt cost is negative.

On the supply side, the main manufacturers in Shandong have lowered the ex factory quotation for many times within a week, the range is about 50-100 yuan/ton, and the unit operating rate is generally maintained at 5-60%, mainly maintaining the contract order. At the same time, Qilu Petrochemical switched to residual oil production on December 2, and some major refineries switched to residual oil production on December 6, driving the decline of construction in the region. The refinery’s shipment situation is general, and the inventory has increased significantly. However, with the introduction of the winter storage policy, the operators’ enthusiasm for stocking up is fair, and the refinery’s inventory is expected to decline next week.

On the demand side, due to the drag of demand, traders have poor enthusiasm for entering the market, and most of them purchase on demand. And there is no intention of warehousing for winter storage.

The future forecast shows that the weak operation of international crude oil has limited support for refinery costs, and the domestic demand for spot asphalt and winter storage has some support, but the support is not significant. The asphalt analysts of the business community expect that the domestic asphalt market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic polyurethane fiber market fell slightly in November. As of November 29, the average market price was 36,700 yuan/ton, down 3.42% from the beginning of the month and 52.71% year on year. At the beginning of November, most manufacturers stuck to their offer, but with the weak focus of the main raw material PTMEG market, the pure MDI fell in shock, and the cost side support weakened. At the same time, the commencement of the spandex industry was temporarily stable at around 70%, and the supply of goods was sufficient. Although the manufacturers were active in shipping, the downstream terminal market was in a lack of trading atmosphere. It was difficult to stick to it from mid to late, and the price fell under pressure.

Current mainstream price statistics of polyurethane fiber market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D./ 30D./ 40D

Zhejiang./37000-43000./36000-40000./33000-36000

Shandong./37000-43000./36000-40000./33500-36000

Fujian./37000-47000./36000-40000./33500-39000

Jiangsu./37,000-43,000./36,000-40,000./33,000-36,000

In November, the start of raw material PTMEG industry was lowered to around 65%, but the price was weak, mainly affected by the weak trend of BDO on the cost side. At the end of the month, the market negotiation evaluation of PTMEG (1800 molecular weight) in the domestic spandex field was 19000-19500 yuan/ton, down 3000-3500 yuan/ton from the end of last month. The pure MDI market also declined, the overall demand was weak, traders were more active in shipping, the focus of market mainstream negotiations continued to decline, and the market reference was 17500-18000 yuan/ton telegraphic transfer barreled self lifting.

Domestic textile and clothing sales data continued to decline, and the window of foreign textile industry replenishment stage has been closed. While domestic sales are weak and export sales are poor, the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods, and the purchase is mainly based on rigid demand. Weaving enterprises have further reduced their load. By the end of November, in Xiaoshao, Zhejiang Province, the starting level of round machine and wrapped yarn was 30% to 50%, in Jiangsu Province, the starting level of round machine and wrapped yarn market was 30% to 50%, and in Guangdong Province, the starting level of round machine, wrapped yarn and warp knitting market was 30% to 60%.

Analysts from the business community believe that the cost side support has weakened, and the downstream mainly focuses on the follow-up of rigid demand, and the overall market performance is weak and weak. At present, the spandex market lacks confidence in the future market, and it is expected that the price of the spandex market will remain downward in December.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8308.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 7716.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.12%. The price fell 0.32% year on year.

styrene

The styrene market price fell in November. It can be seen from the figure above that the price of styrene dropped more than the increase in the past month. The main reason for the decline was that the focus of the pure benzene market continued to move down, and the cost support was poor. Tianjin Dagu styrene plant was planned to restart, domestic styrene supply increased simultaneously, styrene inventory pressure was high, and it was difficult to support the styrene market. The spot price of styrene continued to decline. At present, export orders promote the decline of port inventory. In December, Xinpu Chemical shut down. Sinochem Quanzhou’s annual production capacity of 450,000 tons and Zhenhai Li’ande’s annual production capacity of 620,000 tons of styrene are planned to shut down. The domestic supply is expected to decline, which is good for the styrene market.

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene fell sharply this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 7200-7500 yuan/ton (the average price is 7384 yuan/ton); The price at the end of the month was 6700-6850 yuan/ton (the average price was 6759 yuan/ton), down 8.46% this month and up 1.64% compared with the same period last year. This month, the pure benzene market was hit by various negative effects, and the price fell due to shocks. 1、 Crude oil fell broadly and the cost was negative. 2、 The Asian American arbitrage window was closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China was at a high level, so the import volume of pure benzene in November was at a high level. Moreover, the overall supply of pure benzene market is sufficient. 3、 Downstream profitability is poor, styrene continues to decline, and the market is generally interested in buying pure benzene, which is a drag on the demand side.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell in November. At present, the trend of PS (polystyrene) market is weak, the trading and investment atmosphere is difficult to improve, the shipping rhythm of merchants is slow, and the shipping pressure of merchants is not reduced. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in East China market is 9400-10950 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 10200-11400 yuan/ton.

In November, the EPS market declined. At the beginning of this month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 11025 yuan/ton, and at the end of this month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10500 yuan/ton, down 4.76%, up 0.72% compared with the same period of the year. At present, the average operation of EPS devices in China is more than half, down from last week. The demand is still weak, and the buying price is weak. EPS manufacturers are under pressure when shipping, and some devices are operating under low load or temporarily shut down. Downstream buyers are mainly wait-and-see, EPS manufacturers’ shipment is not smooth, the market is pessimistic, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the overall delivery is fair.

In November, the domestic ABS market weakened and prices fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic ABS was 12050 yuan/ton on November 1 and 11950 yuan/ton on November 28, with a range of – 0.83%. In late November, the load of ABS industry was adjusted in a narrow range. At present, the commencement of equipment is generally maintained at more than 90%, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The enterprise was dragged down by the raw material side, and the factory price was lowered. ABS upstream three materials fell together, weakening the support for ABS cost side. The petrochemical plant started at a high level, the weekly output was stable, and the pressure on the supply side remained unchanged. The demand side did not improve, and the seller camp reduced the price and took the goods. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS market will continue its narrow range consolidation operation.

Recently, the pure benzene market has declined, and the cost support is not good. However, the styrene factory has expected to reduce production at the beginning of the 12th Five Year Plan, and the styrene market has reached a low level, so the business community expects that the styrene market will increase slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic neopentyl glycol market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China rose from 8933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 0.37%. A year-on-year decrease of 47.25%. On December 4, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 43.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 58.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 (2021-09-22), and up 0.37% from the lowest point of 43.05 on November 28, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of mainstream neopentyl glycol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price was temporarily stable this week. The average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market this week is 6233.33 yuan/ton. The market price of upstream raw materials was adjusted at a low level, with average cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future market forecast

Neopentyl glycol market trend in the first half of December was mainly down due to slight shock. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market was consolidated at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream paint market was in general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weakened. The neopentyl glycol analysts of the business community believe that the market price of neopentyl glycol in the short term may fluctuate slightly under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of December 2, 2022, the market price of diethylene glycol was 6133.33 yuan/ton. Compared with November 28, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 6050 yuan/ton), the price increased by about 83 yuan/ton, or 1.38%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the diethylene glycol market was operating at a high level with strong shocks. During the week, prices rose and fell. Some diethylene glycol suppliers raised the delivery price of diethylene glycol by 50-200 yuan/ton, while some suppliers adjusted the delivery price by 50-100 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the diethylene glycol (DEG) quotation fell briefly due to the impact of the terminal shipment on the market mentality. However, the recent international crude oil futures have risen sharply, with strong support on the cost side. With the limited arrival of imported ships, the port inventory remains low and volatile, and the supply is expected to remain tight. In the second half of the week, the DEG quotation rebounded. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly. The diethylene glycol price trend is dominated by high shocks, and the market mentality is relatively mild. As of December 2, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 6050-6300 yuan/ton.

At present, the limited arrival of diethylene glycol at the port and the low stock fluctuated, but the downstream demand was unstable, and the terminal shipment still affected the market mentality. The diethylene glycol data engineer of the business community believed that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market was adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the header shipment and the subsequent arrival at the port.