1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated this month. On March 1st, the price was 7450 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 7570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.61% compared to the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of crude oil, in early March, the Saudi side stated that the OPEC+2 million barrels per day production reduction agreement would be implemented until the end of this year. The tight global idle capacity and supply uncertainty related to the Russia Ukraine war have limited the downward space for oil prices. The market is generally optimistic about Asia’s expectations for crude oil demand, and the expectation of a rebound in the demand side of the crude oil market is constantly strengthening. The oil price is strengthening, and the spot supply of toluene is tight, while the price of toluene remains high.

In late March, against the backdrop of the global economic recession, the macro risks brought about by the banking problems in Silicon Valley led to a significant decline in crude oil prices. Affected by the economic recession environment, the market as a whole was still in a state of panic. With the tightening of liquidity and the expected adjustment of crude oil supply and demand structure caused by this risk aversion sentiment, the overall operating range of oil prices shifted downward, and the basic performance of the toluene market was poor, with prices operating in a weak state.

The crude oil price fluctuated in March, showing a “V” shaped trend. On March 31, the benchmark price of WTI crude oil in Shangshang Society was 72.97 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -3.58% compared to the beginning of this month (75.68 US dollars per barrel). The benchmark price of Brent crude oil is 77.59 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of -5.42% compared to the beginning of this month (82.04 US dollars per barrel).

On the downstream side, domestic PX prices have remained stable this month, with a promising increase at the end of the month. The overall price in March remained at 8500 yuan/ton, reaching 8800 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In late March, the comprehensive operating rate of PX enterprises further improved, and the price of PX market rose strongly.

In terms of OX, the price of OX has shown a ladder like upward trend this month, with a price of 8300 yuan/ton on March 1st and 8600 yuan/ton on March 31st, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 3.61% compared to the beginning of the month. Upstream mixed xylene prices are fluctuating and stabilizing, while OX costs are stabilizing; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride is stabilizing, while the downstream plasticizer market is declining. Demand is mainly in demand, and the overall upward momentum of OX market is weakening, and downward pressure still exists.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fluctuated positively in the first half of this month and negatively in the second half. On March 1st, the price was 8472.6 yuan/ton, and on March 31st, it was 8410.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan/ton or 0.73% compared to the beginning of the month. The domestic refined oil market continues to decline, with a light trading atmosphere and significant sales pressure from the main operating units at the end of the month, resulting in a downward pressure on domestic gasoline prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

At present, with the easing of concerns about the recent economic recession and the expected increase in supply tightening, oil prices have emerged from the low levels caused by banking issues and are in the stage of recovery and repair. Short term crude oil fundamentals still have support, but demand growth is limited, and the upward path is still hindered. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to be mainly recovered from fluctuations next month. As the weather warms up, people’s willingness to travel and activity radius increase, gasoline demand gradually increases. In addition, with the increase in gasoline exports in April, the market is supportive and there is some room for growth in the gasoline market. The recent strong rise in PX and OX markets has driven the price of mixed xylene market to rise. It is expected that the advantages of mixed xylene will remain unchanged in the short term and will continue to operate at a high level in April. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell in March

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of March 31, the zinc price was 22506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.60% compared to the zinc price of 23346 yuan/ton on March 1. The market demand rebounded less than expected, and zinc prices fluctuated and fell in March.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 51.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, and the manufacturing industry maintained an expansion trend. However, the PMI has decreased, the expansion trend has slowed down, and the economic recovery in March was less than expected. With the accelerated recovery of the domestic economic cycle, production and market demand have steadily rebounded, and the economy has maintained a recovery momentum. The pace of economic expansion is expected to accelerate, and the demand for zinc in the future is expected to rebound.

Zinc concentrate processing costs decreased in March

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in March, the zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start operations decreased, the expected production of zinc in the market decreased, and the expected supply of zinc in the market decreased.

According to inventory statistics in the Shanghai futures market, the zinc content in the Shanghai futures market in March. The inventory of zinc ingots has significantly decreased, the supply of zinc in the market has decreased, and the support from the rising zinc market remains.

From the statistical table of zinc ingot trading volume and transaction amount in the Shanghai futures market, it can be seen that the trading volume and transaction amount of zinc ingots in March decreased by 26.25% and 35.47% year-on-year, and increased by 23.74% and 20.39% month on month. The month on month increase indicates economic recovery, and the enthusiasm for trading in the zinc market has rebounded; The significant year-on-year decline indicates that the economic recovery is not as expected, and the demand for zinc remains weak.

>Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, PMI is still in the expansion range, and there is still expectation of a rebound in demand in the zinc market. In March, trading volume and transaction amount both fell sharply year-on-year, and the economic recovery was less than expected. The demand in the zinc market remains weak; The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of zinc in the market is expected to decline,. Both supply and demand are weak, with limited support for the rise of the zinc market. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the monitoring of the Business Agency, this week (March 25-31) maintained a slight upward trend, with polyester FDY rising 3.07%, POY rising 2.12%, and polyester DTY rising 2.92%. Currently, for mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the quotation for polyester POY (150D/48F) is 7550-7750 yuan/ton, the quotation for polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) is 8900-9500 yuan/ton, and the quotation for polyester FDY (150D/96F) is 8300-8500 yuan/ton.

Average price rise and fall of polyester filament market Unit: yuan/ton

Commodity/ March 25th/ March 31st/ Up and down/ Year-on-year increase and decrease

Polyester DTY/ 8898./ 9158./ 2.92%./ -4.25%

Polyester POY/ 7465./ 7623./ 2.12%./ -3.09%

Polyester FDY/ 8144./ 8394./ 3.07%./ -2.46%

In the crude oil market, the US commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly decreased, and the export of crude oil from the Kurdistan region of Iraq was blocked. The oil market gained significant support. As of March 30, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.37/barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $78.60/barrel. There is not much circulation of goods and it is estimated to destock in April. PTA prices will continue to rise this week. Currently, the average market price in East China is 6404 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.85%.

Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving starts have remained around 67%, with no significant decline yet. Currently, orders for out of season fabrics have been placed in succession, and domestic textile foreign trade orders have also been placed in small quantities. However, the overall market order volume is still lower than the level of the same period last year. And as the price of raw materials continues to rise, the pressure on losses increases, and confidence in the future market is generally insufficient. Most downstream factories stock up until around the Tomb Sweeping Festival, and some purchased raw materials are readily available.

Analysts from the Business Agency believe that the tight supply of raw material PX is expected to continue until late April and even May. PTA has a strong upward momentum, so there is still good support for polyester fiber costs. However, the downstream market is in a strong wait-and-see mood, mainly placing orders cautiously, which forms a certain degree of repression against the rising trend.