1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 3988 yuan/ton, which is 4398 yuan/ton compared to May 4th. This week, the price of liquefied natural gas in China decreased by 9.32%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, domestic liquefied natural gas prices continued to decline and rebounded to rise. After the May Day holiday, there was an oversupply in the market, weak trading on the market, strong willingness of liquid plants to discharge their inventory, and a decrease in the price of liquefied natural gas. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have lowered their prices. On the afternoon of May 9th, PetroChina Northwest Liquid Plant bid for raw gas prices in mid May (May 11-20). The starting price is 2.08 yuan/square meter, and the transaction volume is 2.19-2.36 yuan/square meter. The low end is reduced by 0.21 yuan/square meter compared to the previous period, while the high end is reduced by 0.18 yuan/square meter compared to the previous period. The transaction volume is 80 million square meters, and there is no unsold auction. Due to the cost decline, the price of liquefied natural gas continues to weaken. After continuous price reductions, the pressure on the liquid level was relieved, and prices rebounded and rose on Thursday.

On May 11th, the domestic mainstream market’s liquefied natural gas quotation situation:

Region/ offer

Inner Mongolia region/ 3800-4100 yuan/ton

Shaanxi region/ 3830-4050 yuan/ton

Shanxi region/ 3800-4200 yuan/ton

Ningxia region/ 4000-4120 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 4050-4100 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 4100-4450 yuan/ton

Sichuan region/ 3630-4050 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 4400-4500 yuan/ton

3、 Future Market Forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic liquefied natural gas market has started to rebound and rise after a continuous decline, and downstream restocking has begun to increase. At present, the market is in a stage of consolidation and consolidation, and it is expected that the domestic liquefied natural gas market will mainly consolidate and operate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 3400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3325.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.21%. On May 7th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 105.56, a decrease of 1.58 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.54% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 81.22% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have slightly decreased The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 3000-3200 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3100-3300 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2700-2800 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 8620.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8520.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.16%. The weekend price fell by 9.52% year-on-year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased, from 5475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5425.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.91%. The weekend price decreased by 24.48% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. International potassium fertilizer prices continue to decline. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8620.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 8520.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16%. The current price has decreased by 4.70% compared to the previous year, and the current price has decreased by 9.52% compared to the previous year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent decline in the potassium carbonate market has been the main trend, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, and the market price of potassium chloride continues to decline. The transaction volume in the potassium carbonate market is flat, and the shipment volume is poor, resulting in a decline in the potassium carbonate market. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 8300-8500 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated and fallen: on May 6th, the distribution price of potassium chloride by Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. was around 3300 yuan/ton, and the prices have remained stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. During the May Day holiday, the potassium fertilizer market did not have strong transactions. After the holiday, the market is currently dominated by bearish conditions, with low demand and abundant supply of potassium fertilizer, resulting in oversupply.

Recently, the domestic potassium fertilizer market has entered a low season with high inventory, and downstream purchases remain in demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Zinc prices fluctuated and fell in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 30th, the zinc price was 21374 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.18% compared to the zinc price of 22782 yuan/ton on April 1st. Weak demand and increased supply led to a volatile decline in zinc prices in April.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in April, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry was 49.2%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, leading to a decline in the level of manufacturing prosperity. In April, due to factors such as insufficient market demand and the rapid recovery of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter, which formed a high base, the PMI of the manufacturing industry fell below the critical point, and the economic level fell month on month. The production index and equipment manufacturing industry index are still in the expansion range, and it is expected that production and market demand will steadily rebound in the future. The economy will still maintain a recovery momentum, but the overall growth rate may be lower than market expectations, and the support for the future zinc market’s rise will weaken.

Zinc concentrate processing costs decreased in April

From the trend chart of zinc concentrate processing fees, it can be seen that in April, the zinc concentrate processing fees decreased, but the pace of decline slowed down. The enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start operations stabilized, and the expected decrease in zinc market production was still supported by the rise of the zinc market.

Zinc prices fluctuate and fall in London LME market

From the trend chart of zinc ingot prices in the London LME market, it can be seen that zinc prices in London experienced a significant fluctuation and decline in April. The supply of zinc ingots in the international market has increased, and London’s zinc ingot inventory has greatly increased. The demand in the international market remains weak, and the international zinc price has significantly fluctuated and fallen.

Future Market Forecast

Data analysts from Business Society believe that the economy is still weak, with zinc prices experiencing a significant fluctuation and decline in April. The processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the enthusiasm of domestic zinc smelting enterprises to start construction has declined, and the supply of domestic zinc market has decreased. However, in the international market, the energy crisis in Europe has eased, and the starting of European zinc smelting enterprises has increased, and the supply of zinc market has increased. In general, the supply of zinc market is sufficient, but the economic weakness is insufficient. In the future, there is sufficient supply of zinc in the market, and the recovery on the demand side is limited. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, on April 28th, the domestic carbon black N220 quotation was 10066 yuan/ton, and the raw material price continued to decline. The cost support performance of carbon black became increasingly weak, and the domestic carbon black market declined this month.

Cost: The market price of raw material coal tar has fluctuated and declined this month. The market of high-temperature coal tar major downstream deep processing coal tar pitch products has gradually weakened. Some downstream deep processing enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the demand for raw materials has decreased significantly compared with the previous period. At present, downstream factories are still passive in receiving goods. Overlapping enterprises have a large inventory backlog, which depresses the market price of coal tar. In the short term, the market is still difficult to find good support, and the market is pessimistic.

Supply and demand side: Currently, the overall operating rate of carbon black enterprises remains stable, with most carbon black enterprises maintaining normal operating levels. Some factory equipment maintenance is affected by the downward price of raw materials, and the carbon black market continues to fluctuate. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and many are bearish on the future market of carbon black, resulting in weak supply and demand in the carbon black market. Because most carbon black enterprises still have some high priced raw material inventory and carbon black produced by high priced raw materials in the early stage, although the price of raw materials has bottomed out, the cost of carbon black production is still high, so most carbon black enterprises are still under cost pressure, and the business offer is relatively firm, and the downward range of carbon black market price is limited. Carbon black enters a dilemma.

In terms of downstream tire companies, the overall operating rate remains stable, but due to the weak fluctuations in carbon black prices, there is currently no significant positive trend on the market. Recently, the inventory level of finished products has been reasonable, but the demand in the terminal tire industry is weak. The enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase goods is generally cooled, and the market may still operate weakly.

Overall, there has been a significant decline in raw material prices, weakened support for carbon black cost prices, and intensified bearish sentiment at the end. Both supply and demand sides are dominated by bearish sentiment, and there are currently no positive signs on the market. Overall, it is expected that carbon black will operate in a weak position in the short term.