The epoxy resin market rose overall in the first week of August, supported by raw materials. However, after 8 days, epoxy resin lacked upward momentum and market negotiations remained stagnant. However, there was insufficient demand, and negotiations on actual orders were somewhat relaxed. As of January 14, the liquid epoxy resin market in East China was 13800-14400 yuan/ton, and the solid epoxy resin market in Mount Huangshan was 13800-14200 yuan/ton.

Last week, raw material bisphenol A was initially suppressed and then increased, with little overall fluctuation. As the price of raw material phenol ketone rebounded and market supply decreased, it stopped falling and rebounded over the weekend, but the increase was limited. The reference price of East China bisphenol A was 10600 yuan/ton. In terms of equipment, Huizhou Zhongxin and Nantong Xingchen equipment have been shut down, and the overall operating rate of the bisphenol A industry is around 70%.

The market for epichlorohydrin is not optimistic. On the 11th, the reference price for epichlorohydrin in the East China market was 8400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline during the week. It is difficult to support the fluctuation of its dual raw materials, with propylene prices slightly dropping by 100 yuan compared to the previous week, with the latest reference price at 6600 yuan/ton; 99.5% glycerol in East China increased by 50 yuan compared to the previous week, with the latest reference price at 4450 yuan/ton.

The epoxy resin industry chain is showing a trend of first falling and then rising, with limited overall volatility. Currently, there is little inventory pressure on the dual raw material bisphenol A and ECH factories. The dual raw material market has driven a small increase in the epoxy resin market since mid week, but the upward trend is not yet significant.

From the perspective of the business community, there has been a shortage of new orders for epoxy resin since August, with the main focus on delivering low-priced orders in the early stages. The speed of customer pickup has slowed down, and multiple resin factories have stopped production or reduced their burden. However, the new factories are eager to ship prices, and there is inevitably room for negotiation. However, traders are still feeling a rising sentiment. The short-term dual raw material and resin market is operating steadily, with insufficient upward support factors. The focus is on the demand side.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6038 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On August 14th, the PVC market was operating weakly. The spot prices in the market have slightly declined, while futures have closed down, suppressing confidence in the spot market. Some companies are watching to stabilize prices. Traders have low enthusiasm for purchasing goods, and downstream purchases are made on demand, with caution in actual orders. At present, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is poor, and the market trading is relatively light.

Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market will be weak in consolidation and operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 11th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 21266.67 yuan/ton, which was generally unchanged from the beginning of the month and increased by 25.10% compared to the same period last year.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 1st, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 24766.67 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of the month and an increase of 8.47% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

As of August 11th, the domestic price of trichloromethane has slightly decreased, with a 3.03% drop during the month. The overall price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable and moving forward, while raw material prices have fallen again. The summer refrigerant demand peak season has caused enterprises to maintain a positive attitude towards prices. In addition, the quota has not yet been implemented, and the long short game has led to a stable and moving forward in the domestic refrigerant R22 market this week.

As of August 11th, the domestic price of trichloroethylene has continued to operate at a low level, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has remained stable at the bottom and moved forward. The raw material price has remained low, and supported by the demand for refrigerants downstream in the summer, enterprises have a strong mentality of price support. This week, the domestic market price of R134a has continued to remain stable and move forward.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic hydrofluoric acid prices continue to be weak, and the raw material prices continue to be low. In the future, the domestic refrigerant market prices will continue to be under pressure as a whole.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society refrigerant analysts believe that raw material prices continue to fluctuate at low levels, overall market inventory is low, and downstream demand remains high. Enterprises have a strong attitude towards price support, and the refrigerant market is a long short game. It is expected that in the short term, the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level.

According to monitoring data from the Business Society, as of August 10, 2023, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 13320 yuan/ton. Compared to the 86 day (organic silicon DMC reference was 12900 yuan/ton), the price increased by 420 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.26%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (8.06-8.10), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole has seen an upward trend. This week, the upward trend in the raw material metal silicon market has provided increased cost support for organic silicon DMC, and the organic silicon DMC market has also begun to adjust prices positively with the trend of raw materials. The downstream silicone product market of organic silicon DMC is also showing an upward trend, and the industry chain has provided some market support for the organic silicon DMC market from bottom to top. From mid week to weekend, organic silicon DMC factories in some regions in China actively increase the price of organic silicon DMC by around 200 to 600 yuan/ton. As of August 10th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is around 13300-13600 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere of organic silicon DMC on the market is mild, and downstream stable stock is available. The organic silicon DMC data analyst of the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly operate with stable and small movements, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

The price of plasticizer DBP rose first and then fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the DBP price was 9637.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.58% compared to the price of 9487.50 yuan/ton on July 30th. The price of DBP raw material butanol first rose and then fell, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose. The cost of plasticizer DBP increased, and the demand for plasticizers remained cold. The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises was about 50%, and the supply of plasticizers was insufficient. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP first rose and then fell.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 8th was 11033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.45% compared to the price of 9900 yuan/ton on July 30th. The planned and unexpected fluctuations in domestic octanol units have led to continuous tightening of the supply side, resulting in continuous increases in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. The price of plasticizer DBP has also risen this week. As the price of isooctanol rises to a high point, buying and chasing high sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. In the future, the downward pressure on isooctanol will increase.

The price of n-butanol has stopped rising and fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 8th, the price of n-butanol was 7966.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.46% compared to July 30th, when the price of n-butanol was 7700 yuan/ton. In some regions of China, the centralized maintenance of n-butanol units has led to a reduction in on-site supply, and tight spot circulation has supported the upward movement of the n-butanol market. Downstream demand is flat, and downstream enterprises have average purchasing enthusiasm. This week, the price of n-butanol first rose and then fell, and the cost of plasticizers has stopped rising. However, there is insufficient support for the price increase of plasticizer DBP in the future.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the resumption of operations by isooctanol enterprises has increased the pressure on the price decline of isooctanol; Poor demand, the price of n-butanol has stopped rising and fallen, the price of ortho benzene has increased, and the support for the rising market of phthalic anhydride still exists. The cost of plasticizer DBP products has decreased; The demand for PVC has turned cold, while the demand for plasticizers remains cold. In the future, costs will decrease, demand will be cold and supply will be insufficient, and it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96%. The price has decreased by 5.49% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has declined. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past month, and the market has slightly declined this week. The pure benzene market is fluctuating and consolidating, with average cost support. Currently, downstream demand is mainly maintained, production and sales profits are reduced, spot transactions are poor, and there is an expectation of accumulated styrene inventory, leading to a decline in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fluctuated and consolidated this week, with East China falling to 7490-7610 yuan/ton and Shandong rising to 7700-7800 yuan/ton. East China traders took profits, increased market circulation, and buying retreated. The inventory of Shandong Refinery is low, and the quotation continues to rise, resulting in a light market negotiation atmosphere.

Downstream, the three major downstream markets of styrene have slightly declined. The average quotation for PS this week was 9166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.09% compared to the same period last year. PS market transactions are cautious, and it is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

The EPS market has been stable this week, and according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials this week is 9775.00 yuan/ton. The EPS market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market may be dominated by a narrow and weak trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable, with mixed ups and downs in the upstream three materials of ABS, providing reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant gradually rose within the month of construction, and market inventory increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to be weak.

At present, crude oil has good cost support, and downstream demand is expected to improve with the arrival of the Golden Nine Silver Ten. There are many favorable conditions for the short-term styrene market, and it is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and rise.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride has temporarily stabilized this week, with a price of 2725.00 yuan/ton. On August 7th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 85.08, a decrease of 1.43 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.27% from the highest point of 174.60 points in the cycle (2022-06-21), and an increase of 46.06% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors are temporarily stable this week. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is around 2300 yuan/ton, and the self raised price of 62% white potassium in ports is around 2500 yuan/ton. The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2200-2300 yuan/ton.

From the downstream market situation of potassium chloride, the price of potassium carbonate continued to decline this week, dropping from 7340.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7220.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.63%. The weekend price fell by 26.14% year-on-year. The market price of potassium nitrate slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.26%. The weekend price fell by 23.40% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ demand for potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid August, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and decline in a narrow range, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge have stabilized at low levels. The downstream market of potassium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, with primary demand for procurement. Potassium chloride analysts from Business Society believe that domestic potassium chloride import prices may slightly decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price center of the Yungui yellow phosphorus market this week is upward, with an average price of 23600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 24100 yuan/ton at the end of the week. During the week, the price increased by 2.12%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price center of Yungui yellow phosphorus market is upward. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is relatively good. The spot market of yellow phosphorus is tight, and the transaction price of new orders is stable and strong. Manufacturers mainly place early orders, but there is not much inventory on the market, which is difficult to sell at low prices, resulting in a relatively stagnant supply and demand. The enterprise will not provide external quotations for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. As of now, the quotation is around 24200-24000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

In terms of phosphate ore, the domestic phosphate ore market fell slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphate ore was 878 yuan/ton, while at the weekend, the average price was 868 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 1.14%. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is relatively light, and downstream procurement is relatively cautious. It is expected that in the short term, the overall phosphorus ore market will be weak in consolidation and operation.

In terms of coke, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the fourth round of increase in the coke market was implemented from July 28 to August 4, 2023. As of August 4, the price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi region was 2080 yuan/ton, up 10.74%. On the whole, the demand for coke is fair at present, and the supply is still slightly tight, but the decline in the futures market affects the mentality of the Spot market. Traders are slightly less motivated to take the goods. After two rounds of intensive coke increase, steel mills have a strong resistance mentality. It is expected that the coke market will maintain a temporary stable operation in the short term.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of phosphoric acid was 6640 yuan/ton, and on the weekend, it was 6650 yuan/ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.15%. This week, the price of phosphoric acid in the phosphoric acid market is basically stable, with a slight increase. The upward momentum is insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. It is expected that the narrow range of phosphoric acid market prices will be mainly consolidated and operated in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current upstream phosphate rock prices have slightly decreased, while coke prices have significantly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. At present, the yellow phosphorus market has a good order receiving situation, with a tight spot market and difficult to find low-priced sources of goods. It is expected that in the short term, yellow phosphorus will mainly operate with a strong trend, and we will pay attention to changes in the news surface.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, the price of industrial and battery grade Lithium carbonate continued to fall under pressure this week. On August 3, the average domestic mixed price of industrial Lithium carbonate was 267000 yuan/ton, down 3.96% from the average price of 278000 yuan/ton on July 30. The domestic mixed average price of battery grade Lithium carbonate was 285000 yuan/ton on August 3, a decrease of 4.36% compared with the average price of 298000 yuan/ton on July 30.

From the observation of market changes, the Lithium carbonate market continued to decline this week due to the low price of Lithium carbonate futures. The supply side market has maintained an increase in supply, and inventory has continued to accumulate. There have been reports of a small number of chemical plants shutting down. Some enterprises also cut prices to facilitate the transaction under the pressure of shipment, and the Spot market is still in a heavy game mood.

In terms of demand, as the spot price of Lithium carbonate continues to decline, the downstream purchasing is cautious, and there is no mass replenishment. In addition, there have been rumors of production cuts in the downstream market recently, and there are expectations of a temporary weakening of demand, leading to a higher level of pessimism in the market. In a state of relatively imbalanced supply and demand, market procurement is mainly wait-and-see, and the market supply and demand game continues.

The price of Lithium hydroxide decreased, the production at the supply side remained normal, and the spot circulation was sufficient. On the demand side, the recovery of high nickel ternary demand was not as expected, and the material factory maintained a state of destocking. Spot prices in the market continue to decline, and downstream procurement tends to be cautious.

The price of downstream Lithium iron phosphate is stable. At present, due to the continuous decline in the price of Lithium carbonate, the main raw material, Lithium iron phosphate enterprises are not active in purchasing, so they are cautious in replenishment. Although the increase of Iron(III) phosphate raw materials has led to the increase of production costs, the price is difficult to rise. The demand side of the battery cell companies, mainly based on long-term cooperation, has extended the delivery time, and individual customers have a heavy wait-and-see mood, so prices are temporarily stable.

In terms of futures, on August 3, the opening price of Lithium carbonate futures LC2401 contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 226000 yuan/ton, the latest price was 229650 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%, 19700 transactions and 10136 positions.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business agency believe that the current supply and demand game in the Lithium carbonate market is maintained, the upstream continues to accumulate stocks, and the downstream maintains to go out of stocks. They can only wait for the arrival of procurement nodes, which may bring a turnaround to the price of Lithium carbonate. It is expected that the price of Lithium carbonate may continue to weaken in the short term.

In the first half of 2023, the domestic Cryolite market fluctuated and the price trend decreased slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of TDI on June 30th was 7850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to 7950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and an overall decrease of 1.26%. The lowest price in the first half of the year was 7825 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 7975 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 1.88%.

From the monthly K column chart of Cryolite, the price fluctuation in the first half of 2023 can be roughly divided into the following three stages:

Stable but strong (January February): the price of Cryolite market rose slightly, at 7950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, and 7975 yuan/ton at the end of February, up 0.31%. The downstream needs to follow up. Cryolite enterprises’ quotations are mainly stable. After the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishes goods. Some manufacturers’ shipments are good, and Cryolite slightly increases. After that, the demand remains light. Cryolite manufacturers keep a wait-and-see attitude and operate stably.

Weak downturn (March): The price dropped from 7975 yuan/ton to 7825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%, which is also the largest amplitude in the first half of the year. In March, the market trend continued to decline. Due to the impact of poor downstream demand and resistance to high price supplies, Cryolite enterprises were not able to ship well, and some manufacturers’ quotations were reduced.

Firm operation (April June).

Future market outlook: at the raw material end, affected by increasingly strict environmental protection, safety and other factors in the upstream, the commencement will not be greatly improved. The supply of fluorite is tight, and Cryolite cost support will continue.

In terms of supply, due to the high production cost, Cryolite enterprises mainly maintain low load when starting work. The manufacturer has no pressure on inventory and the price is firm.

In terms of demand, the consumption of aluminum market may increase in the second half of the year, and the demand for Cryolite will increase, but the market is more resistant to the high price Cryolite, and the overall follow-up may not be much improved. In general, the supply and demand game of Cryolite market, and the price fluctuation is not large, and it is expected that the Cryolite market will consolidate in the second half of the year.