According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4750.00 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF price fell by 2.06%, and the overall trend is stable but weak. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4700 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, the overall DMF market is mainly operating in a narrow and weak range, with prices falling by 2.06% compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price range is 4700.00 yuan/ton, and the downstream procurement atmosphere is cold and the negotiation atmosphere is poor. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is a lack of positive support. Currently, manufacturers are operating under pressure, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, resulting in slow shipments.

Chemical index: On January 11th, the chemical index was 867 points, a decrease of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 38.07% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.98% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Business Society DMF analysts believe that in the short term, the DMF market will maintain a stable, medium to strong operation, with prices remaining around 4800 yuan/ton.

Introduction: Diphenylmethane diisocyanate, abbreviated as MDI. According to the degree of polymerization of molecules, MDI can be divided into three levels: polymerization level, mixed level (dimer and trimer mixtures), and pure monomer level. MDI pure monomer (also known as pure MDI) is mainly used for synthesizing leather paste, shoe sole stock solution, and spandex; Polymerized MDI is mainly used in construction, diverse industrial molding, and refrigeration. Polyurethane rigid foam, which uses polymerized MDI as the main raw material, is currently recognized globally as a high-performance energy-saving building material. At present, commercially available products mainly consist of pure MDI and aggregated MDI, with aggregated MDI accounting for approximately 80% of the total market demand. The development of MDI industry in the world has a history of more than 50 years, but the manufacturing threshold is very high. Only a few enterprises such as Bayer (now Covestro), BASF, Huntsman, and Wanhua Chemical Group have mastered its production technology globally, and the industry concentration is very high.

Firstly, let’s review the trend of the aggregated MDI market in 2023. The domestic aggregated MDI market showed significant fluctuations in 2023, with an average price of 15240 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 15766 yuan/ton at the end of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.46%. From the trend chart of aggregated MDI prices, it can be seen that the highest point of aggregated MDI prices in 2023 occurred in early August, with a highest price of 17433 yuan/ton. The lowest point of aggregated MDI prices occurred in mid January, with a lowest price of 14960 yuan/ton and a maximum amplitude of 16.53%.

The trend of the aggregated MDI market within the year has broken the traditional “gold three silver four” and “gold nine silver ten” patterns, resulting in disorderly market fluctuations and reduced operability for traders.

In the first quarter, the market rose first and then rebounded. Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, market operators, driven by expectations of the recovery of domestic economy and downstream demand, combined with the maintenance of supply side facilities in Ningbo and Chongqing in February, controlled the supply volume of the market, and the market situation fluctuated upwards. However, the recovery of downstream demand did not meet expectations, and market prices rebounded after mid March. In the second quarter, the market situation was weak and consolidated from April to May. In June, multiple units in Shanghai underwent centralized maintenance, and the market was once again supported to rise. In the first half of 2023, the good performance of exports was one of the main supports for the market’s reversal of trend and upward trend.

August to October is the traditional peak season for the insulation industry of exterior wall pipelines in North China and Northeast China. In August, production enterprises control the quantity of shipments, but the market supply is insufficient. Traders’ quotations have risen, leading to strong follow-up. In September, the overall follow-up ability of the downstream market was weak, and the buying sentiment was relatively average. Traders gradually lowered their prices to adapt to the market. In October, some companies guided price increases, boosting market confidence among traders and slowing down the market’s upward trend. In the fourth quarter, multiple sets of MDI devices at home and abroad entered maintenance status, resulting in a significant reduction in overall supply. The spot filling of the domestic aggregated MDI market is still relatively limited, and the overall performance of the downstream formaldehyde free board, household appliances, and automotive industries is still good. The domestic aggregated MDI prices are rebounding.

On the supply side, the global economy still faces challenges in 2024, and the domestic economy continues to recover. After experiencing a brief pulse of consumption rebound brought about by the economic restart in 2023, the economic growth in 2024 is closer to the “new normal”. In 2024, China’s MDI production capacity is expected to continue to grow, and the proportion of China’s production capacity in the global production capacity will continue to increase. The main MDI production enterprise in China, Wanhua Chemical, has a MDI production capacity of 3.4 million tons, accounting for 30% of the global total production capacity. As of now, Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo) Co., Ltd.’s first phase of the 400000 ton/year MDI plant will begin maintenance on November 15th, and the second phase of the 800000 ton/year plant will be shut down for maintenance on December 3rd. The two sets of equipment will be maintained for about 50 days each. Chongqing BASF will conduct maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. Chongqing BASF’s 400000 ton/year plant is expected to undergo maintenance on December 25th, lasting about a month. The maintenance of supply side devices and the manufacturer’s control of market volume delivery provide favorable support for the aggregation of MDI.

In terms of imports and exports, China’s aggregated MDI market exports remain optimistic in 2023. According to customs data, the cumulative export volume from January to November 2023 was 990100 tons, an increase of 112200 tons compared to the same period last year, with a growth rate of 12.78%. At present, aggregate MDI is in the growth stage of net export volume. According to the statistics of production and sales countries, the top five exporters are the United States, the Netherlands, Russia, Belgium and Türkiye. The export volume is calculated by trade mode, with general trade, import processing trade, and logistics goods in customs special supervision areas ranking among the top three trade modes. According to registered place names, the top five provinces in terms of export volume are Shandong Province, Zhejiang Province, Shanghai City, Guangdong Province, and Fujian Province. In 2024, the domestic and foreign economies are gradually recovering, which is expected to further drive export growth and drive the domestic aggregated MDI market to recover and improve.

On the demand side, due to the abundant profits in the aggregated MDI industry, the impact of raw materials on the MDI price difference trend is not significant, mainly because the demand side has a decisive impact on the MDI spot price. The downstream demand for aggregated MDI is relatively concentrated, mainly for white goods; Secondly, there are fields related to construction such as pipelines and adhesives. Thanks to the recovery of the domestic home appliance market and the rebound in the growth rate of new house completion area, the demand for refrigerators, freezers, and panel industries downstream of MDI has continued to be good. Small and medium-sized refrigerator factories, external wall/pipeline insulation, automobiles, adhesives and other industries mainly rely on on-demand procurement, and the demand has maintained a stable growth trend. Some downstream sectors are significantly affected by seasonal consumption during the off peak season, and more attention still needs to be paid to traditional peak season policy guidelines such as “Golden Three Silver Four” and “Golden Nine Silver Ten”, as well as changes in demand.

Overall, there are favorable factors affecting the supply, demand, and import and export of domestic aggregated MDI in 2024. The domestic aggregated MDI market is expected to rise in the first half of 2024.

In recent days (1.1-1.10), the market for butyl acrylate has experienced a stable price after an increase. In the early stage, the increase in raw material n-butanol and the intensification of supply side contraction have become the core driving force supporting market price increases. However, after the high level of raw materials fell before the holiday, the upward momentum of the butyl acrylate market weakened. In addition, due to the off-season of traditional consumption, the overall performance of butyl acrylate consumers is lackluster. As of January 10th, the average price of butyl acrylate in East China was 9640 yuan/ton, up 4.78% from the beginning of the month,

The main factor affecting the butyl acrylate market is that the downstream acrylic lotion market was in the off-season in January, and the enthusiasm of the downstream to take goods was insufficient. The wait-and-see attitude towards the raw material market was higher, and the actual transactions were limited. On the supply side of the tape master roll industry, the industry has added production while manufacturers have started production relatively steadily. Downstream consumption is slow, and on-site supply is relatively abundant. On the demand side, due to the recent stable and fluctuating market trends of industrial chain products, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market has intensified, and the atmosphere of market negotiations is light.

According to analysts from Business Society, after entering January, with a strong increase in raw material octanol and a slowdown in market demand, users in the butyl acrylate market are mainly buying small orders. Based on comprehensive market data, the butyl acrylate industry is playing a game between terminal demand and market prices are operating steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 8th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises is 3150.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Since January, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has remained stable, and enterprises can adjust flexibly according to their own situation. The mainstream quotation reference is between 3100-3500 yuan/ton. Recently, the upstream sulfuric acid market prices have declined, with narrow fluctuations in the upstream methanol market, weak cost support, and decent demand performance. Downstream enterprises mainly accept orders for immediate needs, while the focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is on stability.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, the supply side is temporarily stable, and downstream restocking is needed. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will stabilize and consolidate in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam on January 1st was 13842 yuan/ton, and on January 7th, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13837 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.04% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of caprolactam has been fluctuating and consolidating at a high level. The price of raw material pure benzene has increased, leading to increased cost support. At present, the spot supply of caprolactam is tight, and downstream suppliers follow up on procurement as needed, with a market wait-and-see mentality as the main focus. As of January 7th, the settlement price for Sinopec’s high-end caprolactam this week is 14250 yuan/ton. It is a liquid premium product and will be accepted and self picked up in June.

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased. On January 1st, the price of pure benzene was 7218 yuan/ton. On Friday (January 5th), the price of pure benzene was 7420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55% from last week and 5.87% from the same period last year. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7450 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously).

The downstream PA6 market has risen this week. As of January 7th, the average reference price for domestic PA6 is 14725 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the caprolactam market has been fluctuating recently. The cost side support is good, and the caprolactam market is strong at a high level, but there are plans to restart the equipment in the later stage. It is expected that the short-term price of caprolactam will be mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range. It is recommended to pay attention to cost and supply-demand changes.

Price trend:

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the domestic primary sponge titanium market price remained stable, with mainstream prices ranging from 52000 to 55000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

Analysis of influencing factors:

The production capacity of sponge titanium enterprises throughout the entire process has been released, and the inventory has increased. The domestic supply of sponge titanium is sufficient. Among them, Liaoning has the largest increase in production, with a growth rate of 45%. At present, there is overcapacity in sponge titanium production, and the raw material end continues to rise, resulting in high costs. Downstream titanium material market demand is weak. However, as the end of the year approaches, the stocking sentiment has improved and the inventory has eased, but the signing price remains negotiable.

Post forecast:

Business Society Sponge Titanium Analyst believes that next week, sponge titanium enterprises will mainly focus on clearing inventory, and there is not much room for market price increase, so prices will maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of baking soda has increased this month, with an average market price of 2366 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 2688 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price has increased by 13.61%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.25%. On December 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 178.39, an increase of 0.01 points from yesterday, a decrease of 24.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 102.10% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the understanding of Business Society. The current price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating, with the mainstream market price ranging from 2600 to 2900 yuan/ton; The price of baking soda in Shandong region is consolidating, with the mainstream market price around 2500-2800 yuan/ton. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash increased in December. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2620 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2790 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.49%, an increase of 5.36% compared to the same period last year. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has increased this month.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has recently stabilized, while the upstream raw material soda ash has recently fluctuated. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food, and other sectors of baking soda have mainly purchased on demand in the near future. It is expected that the price of baking soda will continue to consolidate in the future, with a specific focus on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province increased significantly in December. The price of isooctanol increased from 11500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12950 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 12.61%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 32.14% year-on-year.

On December 28th, the isooctanol commodity index was 95.22, a decrease of 0.37 points from yesterday, a decrease of 30.75% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 170.90% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market price of isooctanol in Shandong has significantly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and falls

In December, the ex factory price of propylene fluctuated and fell, dropping from 7105.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6868.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.27% at the end of the month. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support, which has a bearish impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side, the DOP market has seen a significant increase

The market price of DOP increased significantly in December. The price of DOP increased from 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12091.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.60%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 23.38% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early January, the Shandong isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. Upstream propylene prices have shown an upward trend at the end of the month, with increased cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently seen a significant increase, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, the Shandong Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

Ethylene glycol prices rose in December

The price of ethylene glycol rose in December. According to data from Business Society, as of December 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4307.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.21% from the beginning of the month. Prices in various regions are as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 4295-4400 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4300 yuan/ton, and the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China’s spot market is 4300 yuan/ton; The mainstream manufacturers in North China offer a spot price of 4295 yuan/ton to the outside world.

The factory price of coal based polyester grade ethylene glycol is low, with a factory price of 3680 yuan/ton in the northwest region.

Review of ethylene glycol market

The expectation of overseas import volume contraction runs through December. At the beginning of the month, the news of equipment maintenance in Saudi Arabia pushed the price of ethylene glycol to stop falling and stabilize, reversing the previous decline. Affected by the Red Sea incident in the later stage, coupled with the month on month inventory of ethylene glycol at the port, the price of ethylene glycol increased significantly.

At the end of the month, crude oil prices fell, and the market’s bullish sentiment began to decline. In addition, there were not many downstream inquiries, and the market gradually returned to fundamental considerations.

Expected future market for ethylene glycol

The main variables currently affecting the price of ethylene glycol are whether the implementation of import volume reduction has been realized, and whether the underlying cost support brought about by crude oil and coal prices will shift.

The supply and demand fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still in a weak state, and the high inventory reality suppresses the upward space of prices. Currently, prices have shown significant upward momentum, and it is expected that ethylene glycol prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term.