Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market prices have slowly declined this week. As of March 8th, domestic producers and traders have reached 18 μ The mainstream quoted price of m’s BOPP film is around 9599 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.3% from last week’s average price, an increase of about 0.3% from the average price before the Spring Festival, an increase of about 0.3% from the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of about 0.3% from the same period in January.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and fallen this month. The mainstream quoted price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) is around 7707 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.2% compared to last week. Weak support for BOPP prices on the cost side

Supply side: There is still some inventory that has not been consumed before the holiday, and inventory is abundant

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises have weak demand, weak trading volume, reduced order quantity, and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that BOPP prices will slowly decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of bromine has been weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 22200 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 21700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.25% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.65%. On March 7th, the bromine commodity index was 76.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.66% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 30.41% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of bromine is in a weak trend, with mainstream quotes in the Shandong market around 21000-22000 yuan/ton, and market prices are consolidating horizontally. Each bromine manufacturer is now resuming production, and the market situation is average. The actual transactions of enterprises are average. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing on demand recently, and the transaction situation is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 1033.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1023.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, a price drop of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.35%. This week, the overall price of raw sulfur has stabilized and the market is operating.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future, while the price of upstream sulfur will be consolidating. The shipment of bromine will be average in the near future, and the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine will still mainly purchase according to demand in the near future, with moderate replenishment of inventory. There is no positive support, and it is expected that the price of bromine will be weak in the short term. The specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade lithium carbonate and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On March 7, 2024, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 102400 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.22% compared to the average price of 96400 yuan/ton on March 1. On March 7th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 111400 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.69% compared to the average price of 105400 yuan/ton on March 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the price of lithium carbonate has continued to show an upward trend this week. In terms of supply, the delay in resuming production in Jiangxi region has been implemented due to the impact of the Yichun environmental inspection incident. In addition, Australian mining has reduced production and some domestic lithium salt enterprises are still in the early stages of maintenance and recovery. The available sources of goods for sale are mainly long-term contracts, and there are relatively few scattered orders in the market, leading to expectations of tightening supply. Therefore, the prices of individual lithium salt companies in the market continue to rise overall, and some lithium salt companies still maintain a strategy of selling individual orders at high prices.

In terms of demand, some downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes currently believe that the high price of lithium carbonate in the market is not a true guide to market demand, but rather an expectation of subsequent demand recovery. Therefore, most downstream enterprises such as positive electrodes generally have poor acceptance of high priced lithium carbonate, and only purchase a small amount of low-priced goods in the market or purchase a small amount of high priced goods based on order conditions to maintain a relatively reasonable level of raw material inventory, without a large demand for reserve inventory.

The lithium hydroxide market is showing an upward trend. With the recent rise in lithium carbonate prices and upstream spodumene concentrate prices, the cost support for lithium hydroxide has been boosted. However, market transactions are still mainly based on long-term contract orders, and the mentality of the industry is still acceptable. The price of lithium hydroxide has slightly increased.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate is showing an upward trend, while the upstream raw material lithium carbonate price is the main trend. The downstream market mostly replenishes according to demand, mainly supplying contract customers. The lithium battery market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere and sufficient supply. In addition, the market negotiation atmosphere is still favorable, and the enthusiasm for shipping is high, resulting in a narrow range and a strong trend in prices.

In terms of futures, the prices of lithium carbonate futures have fluctuated this week, with significant short-term market divergence and ongoing supply side disturbances. The market is greatly affected by funds and emotions, resulting in significant fluctuations in futures prices. On March 7, 2024, the opening price of the LC2407 main contract was 115000 yuan/ton, the closing price was 113000 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 116450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.27%. The transaction volume was 365700 lots and the position was 215643 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, the current quotations from lithium salt companies are still relatively strong, but the market price is still higher than the downstream purchasing psychology, so there is still uncertainty in the subsequent market situation. The weak state of supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market is gradually recovering, leading to temporary wait-and-see behavior among businesses. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable.

Last week (2.28-3.6), the market for isooctyl acrylate showed an upward trend, with the overall trading focus slightly shifting upwards. As of March 6th, the benchmark price of ethyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 13875 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.32% compared to last Wednesday (13300 yuan/ton).

This week, isooctyl acrylate is currently in a sustained and stable situation, with relatively limited spot circulation on the market. Manufacturers and traders are reluctant to sell at high prices, and low-priced goods on the market have disappeared. Downstream users are mainly in urgent need and are willing to buy at a lower price. The main reasons for the price increase of isooctyl acrylate in the market this time are as follows:

Production aspect

The octanol plant (with an annual production capacity of 120000 tons) in the northwest region of the raw material butanol was temporarily shut down yesterday evening due to a malfunction. It is expected to recover in the short term, and the factory has no stock for sales.

In terms of cost

The octanol market has slightly decreased, with a local factory reference price of 12050-12100 yuan/ton in the Jiangsu market and a mainstream factory price of 11900 yuan/ton in the Shandong market. Downstream plasticizer companies have also slightly lowered their prices, and some plasticizer companies have stopped production. There is a certain level of demand in the market, and downstream manufacturers have a moderate sentiment towards raw material procurement today, resulting in a weak atmosphere for on-site transactions.

The market price of acrylic acid has been lowered, with the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe being 6175.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.80% compared to the beginning of this month (6225.00 yuan/ton). The raw material propylene market has risen, with increased cost support, reduced market supply, and stronger price support sentiment. Factories and cargo holders have pushed up their prices, while downstream users have average enthusiasm for inquiries and are in urgent need of purchasing and replenishing goods.

In terms of supply and demand

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic isooctyl acrylate enterprises is relatively low, the supply is tight, and the shipping pressure of enterprises is average; On the demand side, the inquiry atmosphere of downstream manufacturers has improved, but the actual transaction volume is limited.

Overall

At present, the main factor contributing to the price increase of isooctyl acrylate in the market is the tight supply of spot goods on the market and high prices offered by suppliers. However, in the future, analysts from Business Society predict that with the high price of isooctyl acrylate, the end market entry will be cautious, and downstream manufacturers may have resistance to high priced sources. The price of isooctyl acrylate will remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride slightly decreased in February. The price of potassium chloride dropped from around 2800.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2675 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.46% and a year-on-year decrease of 30.82%. On February 28th, the potassium chloride (imported) commodity index was 85.71, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.91% from the highest point in the cycle of 174.60 points (2022-06-21), and an increase of 47.14% from the lowest point of 58.25 points on August 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-03-01 present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic potassium chloride distributors have seen a significant drop in quotes this month. The monthly terminal price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake is around 2500 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2500 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, the self raised price of 60% Dahong particles at the port was around 2700 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; At the end of the month, 62% of Russian white potassium in border trade was around 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. The potassium chloride port has a storage capacity of about 4 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has slightly declined this month, dropping from 7400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7330 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.95%. The end of month price has decreased by 19.63% compared to the same period last year. The factory price of potassium nitrate has slightly decreased this month, dropping from 5175 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5112.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.21%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 14.22% compared to the same period last year. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride has slightly declined. Agricultural demand is average, industrial demand is weakening, and downstream manufacturers are less proactive in purchasing potassium chloride.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to early March, the trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable, and the market situation is average. Downstream agricultural demand is average, industrial demand weakens, and the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate and fall in the future.

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of March 1st, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was mainly weak and stable, mainly due to differences in price expectations between buyers and sellers. Some silicon companies had a willingness to hold up prices, while downstream procurement had a stronger pressure on prices. The game between the two sides was obvious, so market transactions increased, but to a lesser extent than expected. Downstream buyers mostly held a bearish sentiment and purchased according to demand. Therefore, the weak and stable operation of industrial silicon last week was mainly focused on

On the 23rd, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming is 14800-15000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14900 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14700~14800 yuan/ton, with an average of 14750 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15400-15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15500 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of February 29th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 320, with an overall start-up rate of 41.1%, an increase of 1 furnace compared to last week. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces opened increased as expected, and some manufacturers in the northwest have gradually increased their furnace opening. However, the southwest silicon plant is currently facing pressure to make losses, and there may be room for production reduction in the future.

In terms of inventory:

As of March 1st, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 359000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week; This week, the inventory of industrial silicon factories was 86000 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from last week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse is 103000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polysilicon slightly increased, and the polysilicon industry started production steadily. After the holiday, the recovery of transactions was slow, and there may be a possibility of concentrated release in the later period. Currently, the demand for industrial silicon consumption from polycrystalline silicon continues to increase. In the early stage, polycrystalline silicon mainly consumed inventory of industrial silicon. Recently, silicon powder bidding orders have been released one after another, and the demand for replenishment may provide support for industrial silicon in the future.

Last week, the price of organic silicon slightly increased, while the price of aluminum alloy remained stable. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 15120 yuan/ton, and the atmosphere of the organic silicon market was improving. Several companies were temporarily closed and did not provide external quotations. Coupled with the arrival of the traditional downstream peak season, the loss situation of organic silicon production has been improved. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20000 yuan/ton. The production of aluminum alloy enterprises has increased, and it is expected to increase the consumption of industrial silicon during the traditional peak season. However, the current downstream demand for industrial silicon procurement has not been clearly reflected, and it is still mainly based on rigid demand procurement.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon factories are gradually resuming production after the holiday, and the overall operating rate is still gradually increasing. However, in some areas, the operating rate is lower than expected, and the supply will not be concentrated in the short term; On the demand side, with the resumption of industry production, downstream silicon factory replenishment procurement will also gradually increase. The demand for polycrystalline silicon will maintain a stable growth trend, and the market heat of organic silicon will continue to increase under the traditional peak season. There may be a release of concentrated replenishment demand in the later stage, and the demand release is expected to increase. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the overall inventory pressure is not significant. At present, the cost side support is temporarily stored, and the supply and demand side may turn into a situation of double increase in supply and demand. The fundamentals are favorable for the upward trend of silicon prices, but the recent weakening of futures markets and the specific release of downstream demand are unclear. The space for silicon price increase is limited, and it is expected that industrial silicon will slightly increase this week, with a strong operation as the main trend.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 29, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 8100 yuan/ton. Compared with January 1 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price increased by 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.53%.

In February, the domestic propylene glycol market showed an overall upward trend. In early February, the overall performance of the propylene glycol market was calm. Before and after the Spring Festival, downstream demand for propylene glycol gradually weakened, and there was not much adjustment in supply and demand on the market. During the holiday period, the overall performance of the propylene glycol market was quiet, with limited market fluctuations. In late February, after the holiday, the focus of the propylene glycol market was overall upward. As of February 29th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was based on 7900-8200 yuan/ton, with an increase of about 100-300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Analysis of Supporting Factors for the Upward Market of Propylene Glycol

In terms of supply: In February, the overall production of propylene glycol was relatively low, and the overall inventory of propylene glycol in the field was controllable. After the holiday, there was less pressure on the supply side of the market. In addition, some factories performed well in export orders after the holiday, so the supply side provided some support for the propylene glycol market situation.

In terms of demand: On the eve of the Spring Festival, the downstream stocking of propylene glycol was basically completed, and the support provided by the demand side to the market was average. After the holiday, downstream factories of propylene glycol have resumed work and production, and downstream demand has gradually been released. The transmission between propylene glycol supply and demand has improved compared to before the holiday. Therefore, overall, the demand side also contributed to the rise in the propylene glycol market in February.

Market analysis of propylene glycol

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the exchange is mild, and the mentality of the operators is good. The propylene glycol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the propylene glycol market will mainly operate with large stability and small fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 23666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.57% from the beginning of the month’s price of 21600.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.41% from the same period last year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 29th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 30666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.60% from the beginning of the month’s price of 28500.00 yuan/ton, and an increase of 24.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the domestic price of trichloromethane continued to rise, rising by 6.52%. The cost of raw materials continued to rise, and with the issuance of refrigerant quotas, R22 quotas were once again reduced. Most trading entities were bullish on the future market. In addition, the downstream stocking season is approaching, and manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support, supporting the continuous upward trend of domestic R22 market prices in February.

Entering February, the quota policy for third-generation refrigerants has been implemented, and the refrigerant industry pattern continues to optimize. The price war among manufacturers has weakened, and the refrigerant industry as a whole has entered a business cycle. In addition, with the upcoming peak season for downstream refrigerant stocking in March, manufacturers have maintained a strong price stance, supporting the strong upward trend of domestic refrigerant R134a prices.

In February, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices remained stable with a weak trend, resulting in an overall decline of 0.5%. The stable and weak trend in raw material costs will to some extent limit the overall increase in domestic refrigerants in the future.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to refrigerant analysts from Business Society, overall, the upstream raw material costs of domestic refrigerants are stable and slightly strong. Downstream is about to enter the peak stocking season, and with the support of costs and demand, it is expected that the prices of domestic refrigerants R22 and R134a will continue to remain strong in March.