The domestic price trend of fluorite continues to rise, with an average price of 3781.25 yuan/ton as of the 16th, an increase of 7.08% from the beginning of the year price of 3531.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 20.52%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting mining and tight supply of fluorite

In 2024, due to the impact of mine safety rectification, mining enterprises have insufficient production capacity, and the gaming situation in the fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In terms of upstream mining, there is tension, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, recent national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements. In addition, some mine accidents have led to safety hazard inspections in the region’s mines. The difficulty of starting fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the production of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite goods is tight, and the inventory of fluorite has further decreased in the second quarter. The overall market prosperity is high, and the price of fluorite is rising.

On the demand side: The market for hydrofluoric acid is rising, and refrigerant production is still feasible

The domestic price trend of hydrofluoric acid is increasing, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid negotiated by various regions in China has risen to 11200-11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.93% compared to the beginning of the year. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is on the rise, and some devices are still in shutdown recently. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much, and the order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal. The rise in hydrofluoric acid prices is beneficial for the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase according to demand, and the domestic fluorite market is rising.

In 2024, downstream refrigerant prices have significantly increased, and the refrigerant industry has a high enthusiasm for starting production. In the second quarter, due to entering the peak consumption season, dealer purchases have increased, and the price trend of R22 has increased. The mainstream of negotiations is between 25000 and 27000 yuan/ton. The new quota cycle in the refrigerant market has begun, and it is difficult for enterprises to change their reluctance to sell. The quota for R134a in China is relatively tight, and some manufacturers have raised their factory prices. Currently, the market quotation for R134a refrigerant is mostly in the range of 31000-33000 yuan/ton. The overall transaction in the refrigerant industry is good, and some other refrigerant products have recently seen a rise in prices, which has affected the upward trend of the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the driving force of demand in new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Market forecast: The recent national fluorite mine safety rectification action has begun for more than two months, and the risk investigation work has reached its peak. It is difficult to improve the supply in the short term, and fluorite prices still have an upward trend in the short term; However, as mines gradually resume work and the peak season of the refrigerant industry comes to an end, coupled with limited acceptance by hydrofluoric acid enterprises, the long-term upward pressure is increasing, and the price of fluorite is constrained.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of this week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4850.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4875.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.52%, a month on month increase of 2.09%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.99%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market has seen a narrow decline. In terms of supply, global coal supply is stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not enough to support coal prices to continue operating at high levels; In terms of demand, the temperature has risen, the civilian electricity load has fallen, and the overall pressure on power plant inventory is relatively small. Currently, terminals mainly rely on long-term cooperative replenishment, and replenish warehouses according to demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is more wait-and-see. It is expected that the short-term thermal coal market will maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors. The supply of goods continues to be abundant, while downstream demand is relatively average in a supply-demand game state. Business Society Methanol Analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic methanol market prices will be mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the methanol market has been weak and volatile, with poor cost support. Polyformaldehyde production is normal, and orders are scheduled for shipment. Polyformaldehyde analysts at Shengyishe predict that prices may slightly decline.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 14th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9333 yuan/ton. On May 7th, the price of benzoic acid was 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% from last week.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has slightly decreased this week. On May 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 7460 yuan/ton, and on May 7th, the price of mixed xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from last week. International crude oil has experienced strong fluctuations, and the cost support for mixed xylene has strengthened. The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the pressure on port supply has slightly eased. Part of the early maintenance equipment is gradually restarting, and downstream equipment is not operating high, resulting in limited support for xylene. The price has slightly decreased due to this impact. The mainstream price of meta xylene is stable, and the device is operating normally.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid has increased this week. On May 14th, the price of acetic acid was 3400 yuan/ton, and on May 7th, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3% from last week. At present, the operating rate of acetic acid enterprises has returned to a relatively high level, and the supply of goods from suppliers is sufficient. The demand for downstream PTA and EVA, as well as the export volume of acetic acid, have increased simultaneously. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the price of acetic acid has risen.

In terms of demand

Under the support of downstream polyester bottle chip costs, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, maintaining market stability. The supply of polyester chips in the market is tight, manufacturers have improved their shipments, and the market atmosphere has rebounded.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the recent rebound in international crude oil has provided some support for isophthalic acid, and some domestic factories and equipment have undergone maintenance, leading to an expected decline in production. In the short term, with certain positive support from the supply and demand pattern, the market is likely to continue to operate strongly.

This week, the epoxy propane market is mainly stable. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market is based on 9225.00 yuan/ton, which is basically the same as the price on May 6th.

Price influencing factors:

Cost side: Raw material propylene. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price in the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 6774 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 6852 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15%. After the holiday, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market slightly increased, while the raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated narrowly after the holiday. The cost side is still supported.

Supply and demand side: After the holiday, the spot supply in the East China market is tight, and the inventory pressure in the Shandong market has eased. The supply side supports the market with a strong mentality. On the demand side, downstream is observing and following up on demand in moderation, and overall performance is average.

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society’s epoxy propane analyst believes that the propylene market for future raw materials may have a narrow consolidation operation, while the liquid chlorine market is still viable, and short-term cost support may continue. On the supply side, there may be an increase, but the pressure is temporarily controllable. On the demand side, wait and see is the main focus, and supply and demand support is average. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may fluctuate steadily with a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market has been fluctuating and consolidating recently, with prices of various wire drawing brands fluctuating. As of May 11th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7807.14 yuan/ton, up or down -0.46% from the price level on May 6th.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, international crude oil prices have weakened due to the downward trend before and after the holiday. Recently, due to the positive expectation of OPEC+production reduction and the influence of international geopolitical factors, oil prices have rebounded. Meanwhile, due to its impact, the overall price of propylene has increased. The domestic market momentum for propane is relatively strong, with strong price movements. Overall, the cost support for PP has remained relatively strong in recent times.

Overall, the raw material market is strong, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the average load this week is around 75%, which is comparable to the pre holiday level. And there are still maintenance plans for enterprises such as Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Ningbo Jinfa in the later stage, leading to an expected reduction in market supply. The inventory of production enterprises is gradually being digested, and supply pressure is expected to decrease. In terms of demand, the load of terminal enterprises has generally remained stable, with downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding having a comprehensive operating rate of about 42%, 62%, and 57% at the end of the month, respectively. The replenishment operation of enterprises is mainly based on demand, and the trading atmosphere is average.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has experienced a narrow decline. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7712.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.16% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 2.66% compared to the same period last year. After the holiday, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises for PP fiber materials have a stable and stable load, with an average operating rate of around 29%. The trading volume in the non-woven fabric market is average, and orders are mainly based on contracts. The digestion speed of end products has slowed down, and it is expected that the future market of fiber materials may still be constrained by weak demand and consolidation operations.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has remained stable with an increase this week. As of May 11th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is around 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+0.16%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.13%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. In addition, the downstream factories have low load, and most of the new orders are scattered. It is expected that the temperature will heat up in May, and the digestion of terminal products will slow down. Melt blown materials may weaken due to the drag of demand.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the overall polypropylene market has fluctuated and stabilized after the holiday. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is relatively strong, and the support from the cost side for the market is still acceptable. There is an expectation of contraction in the supply of goods, and the supply pressure has eased. The production of terminal enterprises is stable, and stocking is essential to maintain production. The current supply and demand in the market are relatively weak, and the dominant force is still the cost side. It is expected that the PP market will maintain a consolidation operation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fluctuated slightly recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9530.00 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9438.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.96%. The price has increased by 15.71% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly fluctuated and increased in the past three months, with a slight correction in the market this week. International oil prices fluctuate and cost support is poor, while the styrene market has risen to a relatively high level. Spot demand is mainly in demand, and downstream demand is slightly resistant to high prices. The styrene market has slightly declined.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. The price of pure benzene in East China opened low and rose high, with active low-end transactions and a rebound in market sentiment.. The fundamentals are showing an upward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. The average quotation for PS this week is 10300 yuan/ton, and the market is stable. The cost support for PS is not good, and the demand is average. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

This week’s EPS market has fluctuated and stabilized, with an average price of 10725.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS prices have slightly fallen. The cost side support is average, coupled with downstream high price resistance, production and digestion of early finished product inventory are the main factors, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is obvious, resulting in weak new order transactions. On the demand side, the recovery of downstream demand in the north is relatively slow, and the demand for home appliance packaging is improving. It is expected that the overall recovery of demand will be relatively slow next week.

The domestic ABS market has been stable recently. The demand side has just entered the market, and the support for spot goods is gradual. It is expected that there will be limited changes in the fundamentals in the later period, and in the short term, the ABS market may continue to operate at a high level and remain strong.

Recently, international oil prices have been fluctuating, driving high levels of pure benzene and low inventories of styrene. Downstream demand remains strong, and it is expected that the short-term volatility in the styrene market will be mainly lower.

After the holiday, the market price of isobutanol has increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 8th, the average price of isobutanol enterprises was 8000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63% compared to the price on April 30th.

Supply and demand side: After the holiday, factory inventory in the Shandong market is low, and shipments are still acceptable. The mainstream negotiation focus in the isobutanol market has shifted upwards, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly followed up on urgent needs. The mentality of the East China market is strong, with an upward trend in quotations and a strong demand for transactions.

Cost side:

Propylene: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of acrylic acid on May 7th was 6875.00, an increase of 0.73% compared to May 1st (6825.00), which provides sufficient support for the isobutanol market.

Isobutyraldehyde: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of isobutyraldehyde has increased after the holiday. As of May 7th, the domestic isobutyraldehyde quotation was 7975 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.25% from May 1st isobutyraldehyde price of 7650 yuan/ton, providing stronger support for the isobutyraldehyde market.

Related product n-butanol:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 7th, the reference price of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 7866.67, an increase of 0.43% compared to May 1st (7833.33). After the holiday, the n-butanol market slightly increased, providing support for the isobutanol market.

Future Market Forecast:

Business Society Isobutanol Analysts believe that the supply side has been operating without pressure recently, coupled with the rise of upstream isobutyraldehyde, the price of related products, n-butanol, has slightly increased, providing multiple support for the rise in isobutyl alcohol prices. In the future, the price of raw material isobutyraldehyde may consolidate strongly, supporting or continuing isobutyl alcohol. Downstream demand is mainly for fixed procurement, and supply and demand support is still acceptable. It is expected that the isobutyl alcohol market will continue to operate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Recently, the price of isooctyl acrylate in China has remained stable. As of May 6th, the reference price for isopropyl acrylate was 12625.00, which is the same as May 1st. Currently, there is no pressure on supply, and there may still be room for price increases supported by costs. It is expected that the focus of the domestic market for isooctyl acrylate will be on the rise in the near future.

In terms of cost:

Recently, the market price of isooctanol has slightly increased. As of May 7th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9770.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.14% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton). Due to maintenance plans for some plasticizer devices in May, downstream plasticizer users will purchase in moderation before the holiday. The mainstream factories of isooctanol are arranging inventory shipments, and it is expected that the isooctanol market will consolidate and operate this week.

Recently, the price of acrylic acid in the market has remained stable. On May 7th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6850.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost support has been strengthened, the market supply has decreased, and the sentiment of price support has increased. Factories and holders have pushed up their prices, and downstream users have increased their enthusiasm for inquiries. As a result, they need to purchase and replenish goods in a timely manner.

In terms of supply and demand:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic isooctyl acrylate enterprises remains low, the on-site spot supply has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small; From a demand perspective, there has been an increase in downstream terminal demand, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Overall

At present, the rise in cost is the main factor supporting the domestic market price of isooctyl acrylate. The current increase in raw material prices and demand has provided favorable support for the domestic isooctyl acrylate market. Analysts from Business Society predict that with the high price of isooctyl acrylate, downstream consumers may have a resistance mentality, and the subsequent rise of isooctyl acrylate may be difficult to maintain.

Aluminum fluoride prices continued to rise in April

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10925 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton or 4.80% compared to the price of aluminum fluoride on April 1st, which was 10425 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials have risen strongly, with the cost of aluminum fluoride rising in April. In April, aluminum fluoride enterprises started production steadily, and the supply of aluminum fluoride was sufficient. Downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers resumed production more, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was good. The price of aluminum fluoride continued to rise in April.

Strong increase in raw material prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of fluorite was 3675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.38% from the price of 3487.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. As of April 30th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11620.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.06% compared to the price of hydrofluoric acid on April 1st, which was 11166.67 yuan/ton. The progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite mine in April is slow, and the supply of fluorite on site continues to be tight. The fluorite market has strong support, and the price trend of fluorite continues to rise. The price trend of downstream refrigerants has increased, the demand for hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the inventory of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers has decreased. In addition, there are still units parked in the market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Less than 60% of the production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has started, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen due to strong cost support. The prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid have risen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride is well supported, increasing the driving force for the rise of aluminum fluoride.

Electrolytic aluminum market tends to be strong and volatile

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 30th, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20540 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.06% compared to the aluminum price of 19550 yuan/ton on April 1st. Aluminum prices have almost risen unilaterally in the first half of the month, due to the tight domestic supply side and strong cost support, resulting in an increase in aluminum ingot prices; In the second half of the month, aluminum prices fluctuated widely, with little change in fundamentals. Macro sentiment has dominated recent aluminum price fluctuations, and overall aluminum ingot prices are relatively strong, with good demand for aluminum fluoride.

Market Overview and Forecast

Market forecast: In terms of raw materials, the market for fluorite and hydrofluoric acid is relatively strong, with a positive impact on the cost side; In terms of demand, there has been little change in the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum, while the demand for aluminum fluoride is still supported. In the future, the cost support for aluminum fluoride is strong, and the aluminum fluoride market has sufficient supply and stable demand. It is expected that the aluminum fluoride market will continue to be strong in the future, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

Price trend

In April, the domestic PA6 market fluctuated first and then declined, with the decline in spot prices concentrated in the second half of the month. According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of April 30th, the domestic benchmark price of PA6 mixture was 14625 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of -1.02% compared to April 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

From the above chart, it can be seen that the market price of caprolactam increased first and then decreased in April. At the beginning of the month, due to the continuous increase in the raw material pure benzene, the caprolactam market stopped falling and rose. However, the load position of domestic caprolactam enterprises is still at a high level. As the increase in pure benzene is hindered, the market benefits are exhausted, and the mid month market has once again turned downward. In the latter half of the year, some maintenance companies have resumed work and returned, resulting in increased supply pressure and limited downstream demand. Overall, the cost support for PA6 has weakened.

In terms of supply: In April, the load of PA6 production enterprises fluctuated narrowly, with an average operating rate of around 83%, stable production, and abundant supply of goods. Some sliced products have a low digestion speed and there is a certain accumulation of inventory. The overall support from the supplier for PA6 spot goods is average.

In terms of demand: Downstream, the main downstream industries saw a decline in production in April. The operating rate of spinning has decreased from 85% to less than 80%, and the weaving load has remained stable at around 70%. The main logic for downstream purchasing within the month still revolves around maintaining production, with some stocking demand released before the end of the month holiday. However, due to the weakening of PA6 prices, terminal enterprises are cautious in stocking up. The support for spot goods on the demand side of PA6 is average.

Future Market Forecast

The PA6 market fluctuated and fell in April. The price of caprolactam first rose and then fell, causing fluctuations in the cost support for PA6. Domestic polymerization plants have a large and stable load, with small fluctuations, and terminal enterprises are in urgent need of goods. Overall, the current market is characterized by a mix of long and short positions, and it is expected that the PA6 market may return to a calm consolidation trend before the holiday.