This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9912.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.75% compared to the DOP price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to Monday, July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 0.88%; Compared to the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st, it first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.51%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen this week.

This week, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of isooctanol was 9760 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.91% compared to the price of 9850 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to the price of 9860 yuan/ton of isooctanol quoted on July 8th at the beginning of this week, the price has decreased by 1.01%; Compared to the price of 9710 yuan/ton on July 1st at the beginning of the month, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased by 0.51%. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. Downstream factories purchased according to demand, and the enthusiasm of enterprises for raw material procurement temporarily stabilized. Shandong large factories sold at a discount, and the market transaction center shifted downwards. The new orders in the isooctanol market increased, and the support for the rise of isooctanol still exists.

This week, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuated and stabilized

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized this week. As of July 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8087.50 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to July 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 0.47% to 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7900-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory. The domestic production rate of phthalic anhydride is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable. The sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the naphthalene based phthalic anhydride market was consolidated. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. This week, the phthalic anhydride market has been strong and stabilizing.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, the price of raw material isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week, while the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased; Downstream manufacturers have poor demand for plasticizers during the off-season. In the future, the price of isooctanol will fluctuate and fall, the price of phthalic anhydride will stabilize, the cost of raw materials will decrease, and downstream demand will be off-season. The price of plasticizer DOP will remain weak and consolidate in the future.

Zinc prices rose first and then fell in the first half of this month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 10th, the zinc price was 24110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% from the fluctuation of zinc price of 24236 yuan/ton on July 1st.

Macro dynamics

Many regions continue to optimize their real estate policies, in addition to lowering down payments and interest rates, they have also continuously increased the amount of provident fund loans, reversing pessimistic expectations in the real estate industry. The National Development and Reform Commission has promoted the construction of all additional treasury bond issuance projects to start before the end of June this year, and the domestic policy side continues to make efforts. The expectation of three rate cuts within the year at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting has been lowered to one, and the May PMI of China and the United States has fallen, slowing down the expansion of the manufacturing industry.

The London LME futures market’s zinc ingot inventory decreased by 5475 tons compared to the beginning of the month

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), as of July 9th, London’s zinc inventory continued to decline slightly, with the latest inventory level of 256375 tons. This week, London’s zinc ingot inventory continued to decline slightly, a decrease of 5475 tons compared to the beginning of the month.

The resumption of production of the century old Kiposh zinc mine

Ivanhoe Mines announced that its Kipushi mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has been rebuilt and production has resumed. The mine produces lead, zinc, copper, and germanium. It has been 100 years since the first production of the mine and 31 years since the shutdown for maintenance. On May 31st, the first batch of ore was delivered to the Kiposh concentrate plant, and the first batch of concentrate was produced on June 14th. The production target for zinc concentrate at Kiposh Mine in 2024 is 100000 to 140000 tons.

WBMS: Global zinc market oversupply of 184000 tons in April 2024

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in April 2024, global zinc sheet production was 1.1391 million tons, consumption was 955100 tons, and there was an oversupply of 184000 tons. From January to April 2024, the global production of zinc sheets was 4.5547 million tons, with a consumption of 4.3611 million tons and an oversupply of 193600 tons.

Zinc concentrate processing fees have decreased by more than half

Since the beginning of the year, the processing fee for zinc concentrate has been continuously decreasing, with a decrease of more than half, resulting in losses for the refinery. In addition, the domestic supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the profit level of zinc refineries is at a historical low. In July, the maintenance of the smelter exceeded expectations, and zinc production was expected to decrease by nearly 10%,

The enthusiasm has decreased, and the expected supply of zinc in the market has decreased, with some upward support for zinc prices.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, global zinc mines are in short supply, and domestic mines are resuming production, but the pressure for foreign mines to reduce production remains. The maintenance and production reduction of domestic refineries exceeded expectations, and the market supply was tight and balanced. Zinc prices were supported by the supply side and rose. Downstream consumption is still constrained by the weak reality of real estate and infrastructure, and the automotive industry has entered a traditional off-season, with demand slowing down and prices falling from high levels. Expected zinc prices to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of July 9th, the average price of epoxy propane in the domestic market was referenced at 8930.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the beginning of the month.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in July, the price of epoxy propane in the market fell slightly and then remained stagnant and consolidated. However, after a slight recovery in recent times, it will continue to operate on a wait-and-see basis. As of July 9th, the mainstream price reference for Shandong epoxy propane market is around 8500-8600 yuan/ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors:

Cost side: Entering July, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of propylene on July 8th was 7113.25, a decrease of 0.28% compared to July 1st (7133.25). Since July, the main increase in raw material liquid chlorine has been. In recent years, the cost side of the epoxy propane market has been under pressure.

Supply and demand side: At the beginning of the month, some enterprises experienced fluctuations in their equipment, and inventory pressure on the supply side was controllable. However, downstream demand was mediocre, and purchasing attitudes were cautious, resulting in a weak performance in the epoxy propane market. This week, the price of epoxy propane rebounded narrowly from a low level, and downstream observers followed suit. The market atmosphere was average, and the market stabilized again.

Future Market Forecast:

The epoxy propane analyst from Business Society believes that there is still cost support in the current market, and the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. The market transaction atmosphere is average, and it is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market may continue to operate in a wait-and-see manner, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

On July 8th, the National Grain and Oil Information Center reported that last week, international palm oil futures prices rose by 3.17%, the largest increase in five weeks, due to factors such as Indonesia’s plan to impose tariffs on China. As the Indonesian government clarifies tariff rumors, it is expected that the palm oil market will give up policy premiums this week and gradually return to fundamental trading. Due to the first decline in palm oil production after three consecutive months of growth in June, the market is concerned that the subsequent increase in palm oil production may not be as expected, and it is expected that international palm oil prices will remain volatile in the near future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of June 30, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8700 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 8366 yuan/ton), the price increased by 334 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.98%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in June, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong, China showed a trend of “first rising and then falling”. In early June, the market for n-butanol continued to rise, with a ten day increase of nearly 10%. The price of n-butanol in Shandong region exceeded 9200 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, the n-butanol market adjusted its operation, and the market situation fluctuated with each other. In the latter half of the year, the market trend of n-butanol fell from a high level, and the market center kept moving downwards. As of June 30th, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of supply: In early June, some n-butanol units were shut down for maintenance, and the overall operating rate of the n-butanol plant was low. The on-site spot supply was tight, and there was currently no supply pressure on the supply side. Therefore, at the beginning of the month, the supply side provided support for the n-butanol market. Later, as the plants began to operate, the tight supply situation gradually eased, and the support provided to the market also decreased.

In terms of demand: At the beginning of the month, downstream users of n-butanol are facing phased replenishment, and some downstream users have low raw material inventory. They have a high enthusiasm for raw material procurement, and the overall demand side of n-butanol is performing well. Therefore, the demand side provides upward support to the market. As the phased stocking ends, demand returns to calm. In the second half of the year, downstream users of n-butanol mainly digest raw materials, and the overall performance of the demand side is average. The support for n-butanol has weakened, and the focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market is gradually declining.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the overall performance of the supply side is stable. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly adjust slightly, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

In June 2024, nylon filament prices fluctuated with costs, rising in the first half of the month and continuing to decline in the middle and second half of the month, resulting in an overall price decline. In the first ten days, the raw material caprolactam market was at a high level of consolidation, with strong prices. In the middle and late ten days, the supply of raw material caprolactam in the market was loose, and prices continued to decline. The operating rate of the nylon filament industry is maintained, and there is not much change in on-site supply. The inventory levels of various manufacturers are average, and the inventory pressure is not high. The overall demand is weak. Overall, the impact of cost and demand is bearish, and the nylon filament market is experiencing a narrow decline.

Market prices rise first and then fall

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in June 2024, the price center of nylon filament generally declined. As of June 28, 2024, the price of DTY nylon filament (premium product; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu region was quoted at 19220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 1.33%; Nylon POY (premium product; 86D/24F) is priced at 16850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 375 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 2.18%; The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40D/12F) is reported at 20225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 225 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decrease of 1.34%.

Weakness sorting of raw materials

In early June 2024, the market for caprolactam, a raw material for nylon filament, was at a high level of consolidation, with strong prices, providing strong support for nylon filament. In mid June, as the upstream pure benzene market declined, factory equipment maintenance was gradually completed, and on-site supply was loose, with limited support for nylon filament. In addition, downstream on-demand procurement created a strong trading atmosphere in the market, and the price of caprolactam continued to decline. In June, caprolactam fell by 2.7% on a monthly basis.

Supply and demand

In June 2024, nylon manufacturers maintained a stable operating load, with sufficient supply of goods and little inventory pressure. The overall downstream demand is weak, and downstream manufacturers are multidimensional and purchasing according to demand, resulting in a downward trend in demand for nylon spinning.

Future Market Forecast

With a slight decline and consolidation in the spot market for raw materials such as caprolactam and PA6, limited cost support, and normal on-site supply, downstream demand has shown a weak trend. In July, with the arrival of the off-season in the textile market, analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term nylon filament market will mainly follow the weak trend of raw material consolidation, and prices will mainly decline and consolidate.