According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottles has fallen this week, and the volatile operation shows a certain downward trend. As of August 11th, the average price of PET water bottle grade is 7127 yuan/ton.

Raw material market: Although concerns about economic recession have eased in the raw material market, the possibility of larger scale conflicts in the Middle East has cast a shadow of uncertainty on the market. This risk factor continues to affect the stability of production and transportation, thereby driving international oil prices up for the fourth consecutive trading day. Specifically, as of the end of trading on August 9th, the WTI crude oil futures due in September 2024 rose by $0.65 to close at $76.84 per barrel, recording a 0.85% increase; During the same period, Brent crude oil futures (delivered in October 2024) also rose by $0.50, closing at $79.66 per barrel, an increase of 0.63%. The crude oil futures in the Chinese market (SC main contract 2409) also performed positively, closing up 3.9 yuan/barrel from the previous trading day to 559.3 yuan/barrel.

However, it is worth noting that despite the rebound in the crude oil market, the performance of the polyester raw material market appears relatively weak. Especially PTA, there has been a significant downward trend this week, with its main contract price hitting a low of 5468 yuan, a new low since July 2023. The main reasons for the decline in PTA prices this time can be attributed to two aspects: firstly, the weak macroeconomic environment and the downward trend of cost side prices such as crude oil have had a drag effect on PTA prices; Secondly, the imbalance of supply and demand within the PTA market, especially the increase in supply pressure, has further intensified the downward pressure on its prices.

The PET analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently a lack of confidence in the bottle grade PET market, and downstream PET suppliers are continuing to replenish at low prices. PET prices are still slightly declining. In the short term, it is expected that the market will maintain a weak oscillation within a narrow range. Specifically, fluctuations in raw material prices and the implementation of maintenance plans will become key factors affecting the future trend of the PET market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from August 5th to 9th, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI fell from 17500 yuan/ton to 17433 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.38% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. The domestic aggregated MDI market has experienced a narrow decline, with a decrease in supply, but downstream demand is slow. Under the supply-demand game, the price of aggregated MDI has slightly decreased.

On the supply side, Huntsman’s 470000 tons/year MDI production plant located in Rosenburg, the Netherlands, announced on August 5th local time that it was affected and the plant was operating at low negative load. There have been no new maintenance of domestic facilities this week, and the load reduction of overseas factories has boosted the domestic market.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is fluctuating and declining. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8410 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is experiencing a strong upward trend, exceeding 10000 yuan. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 10550 yuan/ton. The overall cost of aggregated MDI has not changed significantly.

On the demand side, the downstream market is slowly following up and has been in a stalemate recently. The market atmosphere is relatively quiet, with many inquiries and limited actual transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has been slow to follow up, and the overall market has been weak. Short term aggregated MDI demand is affected by bearish factors.

Future forecast: In the future, factories with maintenance plans and reduced supply expectations may boost the MDI market. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will experience strong fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of bromine in Shandong region has stopped falling and rebounded, rising. The average market price in early August was 20300 yuan/ton, and on August 6th it was 20700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.97% and a decrease of 5.05% compared to the same period last year. On August 5th, the bromine commodity index was 72.63, up 1.05 points from yesterday, down 70.38% from the cycle high of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and up 23.27% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 1290 yuan/ton on August 6th. The price has increased by 1.18%, which is 45.49% higher than the same period last year. The supply of sulfur is temporarily stable, and downstream factories have a positive purchasing attitude. The purchasing sentiment is stable, with a focus on on-demand procurement.

Supply side: Due to irregular rainfall, brine bromine enterprises have reduced production, and seawater bromine has also reduced production due to rainwater. The rainfall this week is still relatively high, and it is expected that there will be little change in production; In addition, the amount of imported bromine arriving at the port is gradually decreasing, and the domestic bromine inventory is decreasing.

On the demand side: Bromine plant is undergoing maintenance, but downstream stocking is average. The maintenance of the main downstream flame retardant part is weak and dominant overall. Downstream and distributors purchase as needed.

Prediction: Bromine prices are expected to rise recently, while upstream sulfur prices are on the rise. Due to reduced inventory during maintenance, downstream flame retardants are operating normally, while agricultural and intermediate demand is average. The supply-demand game is expected to continue with the consolidation of bromine prices in the later stage. The mainstream average ex factory price of bromine in domestic regions is estimated to be around 20000-21000 yuan/ton, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has continued to decline. As of the 5th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3547.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the price of 3591.25 yuan/ton on July 31 and a year-on-year increase of 16.07%.

Supply side: Limited mining operation, little change in fluorite supply

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department will carry out renovation of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. In addition, the high temperature and rainy weather in the southern region have increased the difficulty of fluorite mining operation, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite remains tight. However, the import of fluorite from Mongolia has a greater impact on the northern fluorite market, and the trend of fluori.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid demand, weak refrigerant, low operating level

Recently, the trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has declined, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market is weak and declining, with some units still in shutdown recently. There is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid, and manufacturers have low orders for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. The overall production of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%, which has dragged down the domestic fluorite market. Some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers purchase on demand, and the domestic fluorite market trend is declining.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal continues to be deadlocked due to poor demand transmission. After entering the off-season of production, the market production demand weakened. In addition, the recent rainy weather has led to poor inventory of refrigerant companies, which has resulted in a lack of enthusiasm for upstream product procurement. The market for some refrigerant products has declined, and as a result, the fluorite market is weak and difficult to change.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as national defense, nuclear industry, etc., including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market is still supported.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market trend has declined, and the demand for downstream refrigerants has weakened. In addition, imported fluorite sources have formed a certain impact on the market, and there are many negative factors. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price trend of fluorite will decline in the later stage.

The market price of ethyl acetate fluctuated within a range in July. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 31, the average production price of ethyl acetate was 6210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.64% compared to the beginning of the month price of 6206.67 yuan/ton. The main reason for the limited positive impact on the cost side, downstream follow-up as needed, cautious mentality in the market, and narrow fluctuations in the price of ethyl acetate.

Market analysis: This month, the overall price of ethyl acetate in the market has not changed much, but narrow fluctuations have been the main trend during the month. The stable decline in prices in the first half of the year was mainly due to the weak raw material market and negative cost factors, resulting in a decrease in the price of ethyl acetate; In the second half of the year, the price of ethyl acetate first rose and then fell. In the early stage, the price of acetic acid continued to rise, supported by favorable raw materials. In addition, the main factory in Shandong underwent equipment maintenance, resulting in a reduction in market supply. The market sentiment was optimistic, and the price of ethyl acetate continued to rise. Later, as the equipment resumed its early load, the price of acetic acid showed signs of decline, and the market sentiment was bearish, leading to a downward trend in the price of ethyl acetate.

According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, as of July 31st, the price was 3325 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 7.95% compared to the acetic acid price of 3080 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid on the raw material side has fluctuated and risen, with cost fluctuations being the main factor. The acetic acid market continues to transmit to the terminal, affecting the downstream ethyl ester trend to fluctuate and operate.

Looking at the future, the upstream price of ethyl acetate has rebounded and risen, with a positive impact on the cost side. The main factories for ethyl acetate have stable shipments, and the mentality of the industry is good. Downstream demand is the main factor, and market trading is still acceptable. It is expected that the ethyl acetate market will strengthen and consolidate in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the price execution of raw materials such as acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (7.23-7.30), with an average market price of 252710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 245510 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.85%.

The recent decline in tin prices is mainly influenced by macro and demand factors. On a macro level, the manufacturing PMI in the United States fell into a contraction range in July, hitting a seven month low. The service industry and comprehensive PMI were better than expected and previous values, and the non-ferrous metal market continued to fluctuate. Myanmar’s resumption of production is uncertain, and there is emotional disturbance at the tin mining end.

Domestic refined tin production is relatively stable, but the tight supply of raw materials limits production space, and the market continues to wait for major factories to schedule production.

On the demand side, it is currently the off-season for demand, and terminal consumption is still sluggish. Refining tin processing fees have stabilized, and downstream buyers are cautious in their purchases. The recent low tin prices have accelerated the large-scale destocking of the domestic market during the off-season.

Due to a large amount of destocking in the short term, there is support for prices on the inventory side. Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with a relatively strong trend within the non-ferrous metal sector.