1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of light soda ash first fell and then stabilized in November. As of November 11th, the average market price of soda ash was 1536 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton or 3.03% compared to the price of 1584 yuan/ton on November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the soda ash market has been mainly weak since November. On the supply side, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity is at a high level, and the market supply of goods is sufficient. Manufacturers negotiate shipments, but the transaction price is low. In terms of demand, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the consumption of soda ash is not significant. On site trading is limited, and the sales pressure of soda ash enterprises still exists. The soda ash market is operating weakly and steadily.

As of November 11th, the reference price for the soda ash market in East China is around 1420-1600 yuan/ton for light soda ash; The reference price for the soda ash market in Central China is around 1370-1600 yuan/ton for the mainstream price of light soda ash.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the downstream glass market has risen strongly. From November 1st to 11th, the price of glass increased from 15.95 yuan/square meter to 16.75 yuan/square meter, an increase of 5.02%. The downstream demand in the glass market is highly active, with smooth shipments from manufacturers and significant destocking in the market. The favorable conditions in the market continue, and glass prices are rising steadily.

Future forecast: Currently, the utilization rate of domestic soda ash production capacity has declined, and the inventory of spot soda ash plants has slightly decreased. Enterprises are actively shipping, and downstream glass prices are relatively strong. However, the demand for soda ash market is limited, and market transactions are limited. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that soda ash will operate steadily in the short term, and specific attention will be paid to downstream demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has continued to operate steadily since November, with an average price of 2775 yuan/ton, which is the same as the same period in October.

Supply side

The current production facilities of mainstream formic acid production enterprises in China have not been scheduled for maintenance, and the operating rate remains at a medium to high level. The supply of formic acid in the market is relatively sufficient, and the source of goods is relatively loose. It is expected that there will be no factors on the supply side that provide favorable support for market prices in the short term.

In terms of demand

Downstream buying enthusiasm is not high: downstream customers of formic acid tend to purchase on demand and have a relatively cautious view of market demand. The actual transaction price of the order was slightly lower than market expectations, and due to insufficient demand and price competition, it is difficult for the transaction volume in the market to increase significantly. It is expected that the demand side will not provide favorable support for market prices in the short term.

In terms of raw materials

The overall performance of the methanol market is relatively stable. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has increased, and some enterprises have started to replenish inventory, maintaining stable market transaction volume. However, the continued accumulation of port inventory and the expectation of imports entering the port in the later stage have suppressed the rise in methanol prices.

The formic acid data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that currently, the supply and demand of the formic acid market are weak, coupled with no positive news on the raw material side. It is expected that the formic acid market will continue to operate weakly and fluctuate, and specific market changes need to be monitored.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province fell this week (11.1-11.8), with an average market price of 17633 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 17366 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.51%.

This week’s market analysis

The price of magnesium ingots has continued to decline this week, with a slight downward trend in weak operation. Downstream demand is weak and sluggish, terminal procurement is cautious, and there is a lack of willingness to stock up on essential orders. The supply side inventory is sufficient, and the supply-demand imbalance is quite obvious. Manufacturers have lowered their quotes to promote transactions, but the market lacks positive stimulation. Recently, low prices have been frequently seen in the main production areas, and prices have continued to decline, with overall transactions hovering at a low level. The current price is at an annual low.

Supply and demand side

At present, the overall pace of the magnesium market is relatively slow, and downstream inquiry and procurement customers are not very enthusiastic, with most adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Affected by the recent continuous price cuts, everyone is waiting for lower prices to appear. Due to order restrictions, magnesium alloy factories have reduced production and stopped production, which has an impact on the demand side of magnesium ingots.

comprehensive analysis

Given the weak demand in the magnesium market, there is no positive support from the raw material side. It is expected that the magnesium market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation trend in the short term without any other positive support.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, since November, the supply of hydrogen peroxide has been loose and the market has weakened. On November 7th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 726 yuan/ton, and on November 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.91% in price.

Loose supply and weak hydrogen peroxide market

Starting from November, the demand for terminal rigidity has been weak, and manufacturers’ purchases of hydrogen peroxide are generally average. The supply of hydrogen peroxide is loose, and negative factors have suppressed the market. The overall quotation is 650-750 yuan/ton. On November 7th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 650-700 yuan/ton, which remained stable, while the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 700 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 760 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 20 yuan/ton; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hangzhou area is 950 yuan/ton, and the market remains stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that in mid November, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals was average, and the upward trend of the hydrogen peroxide market in the future will still be under pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the lithium carbonate market operated weakly and steadily in early November. As of November 6th, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 79200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.8% from the same period last month when it was 77800 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 76800 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.13% from 75200 yuan/ton in the same period last month.

Destocking of lithium carbonate

Lithium carbonate has shown a trend of destocking for 9 consecutive weeks. As of October 27, 2024, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 116500 tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared to the previous period. Among them, the inventory of smelters decreased significantly, with a month on month decrease of 9.1% to 46000 tons. September and October are the traditional peak seasons for lithium carbonate, with a significant increase in demand and an increase in sales growth of new energy vehicles, driving the destocking of lithium carbonate. With the end of the peak season, the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market may slow down, and the demand for lithium carbonate will also decline. This will make it difficult to sustain the trend of destocking.

Lithium carbonate production capacity release

From the supply side, as the price of lithium carbonate reaches a relatively balanced position and maintains a narrow range of fluctuations, the production side is expected to recover. In the future, there will still be lithium resources put into production and climbing, and the supply side is likely to continue to maintain a growth trend,

Capacity unknown

The lithium carbonate data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although the supply and demand relationship of lithium carbonate has improved in the short term, it is still not optimistic in the medium to long term. In the medium to long term, with the continuous increase of the supply side and the relative stability of the demand side, the lithium carbonate market will face pressure from oversupply.

In October, the domestic ABS market rose and then fell back, with spot prices of various grades basically falling back to pre holiday levels. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 31st, the average price of ABS sample products was 11475 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.33% compared to the price level on October 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The load level of the domestic ABS industry rebounded after a decline in October. At the beginning of the month, some devices underwent maintenance, and the industry’s operating rate dropped to around 61%. In the second half of the month, some maintenance facilities such as Huajin in the north and Dagu in Tianjin resumed work, and the industry’s operating rate increased by 5% to nearly 67%. The overall amount of goods produced within the month is slightly more than consumed. Maintain a sufficient level of supply. Combined with the macroeconomic atmosphere at the beginning of the month, the positive effects of filling short orders have been exhausted, and the destocking effect is limited. The inventory position remained relatively high at over 180000 tons during the month. Overall, the supply side provided moderate support for ABS spot prices during the month.

Cost factor: During October, the upstream three materials of ABS showed two declines and one rise, which provided average support for the cost side of ABS. The acrylonitrile market rebounded after a decline. In the first half of the month, there was supply pressure in the market, which led to a pullback after a weak consolidation. In the latter half of the year, some regions experienced a contraction in spot supply, prompting producers to raise prices accordingly. The increase in operating rates of downstream products has also raised demand expectations, and acrylonitrile prices have basically returned to the price level at the beginning of the month.

During October, the domestic butadiene market experienced a weak decline, with a drop of over 10%. After the first ten days of the holiday, the opening of the market was affected by the strengthening of the downstream synthetic rubber market, resulting in a slight increase in spot market prices. However, due to insufficient follow-up from downstream demand, a wait-and-see atmosphere gradually emerged in the market, and the fundamentals weakened. At the same time, due to the loose supply in the mid market, it dragged down the mentality of holders and accelerated the decline of market prices. At the end of the month, while the downstream market gained profit transfer from butadiene, consumer power also laid the foundation for the butadiene market. The current spot market is balanced by long and short positions, with prices generally stable and fluctuating slightly.

The styrene market experienced a narrow rebound after a decline within the month. The performance of crude oil in the far end of the range has weakened from strong to weak, coupled with loose supply of direct raw material pure benzene and poor cost support for styrene. On the supply side, it is relatively abundant due to the arrival of cargo at the port and stable industry load, while domestic demand is relatively stable, resulting in a wide decline in prices. In the latter half of the month, the basis difference of styrene futures continued to strengthen, and the inventory of ports such as Jiangsu was digested, causing the styrene market to turn from a decline to an increase. At the end of the month, there were many inquiries in the market, and actual orders were cautious. Overall, there was more decline than increase in the previous month.

In terms of demand, the main terminal demand for ABS in October has not yet shown the peak season level. With the decline of stocking up and short selling after the beginning of the month, the market has returned to the off-season trend, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The high-temperature holiday for home appliance manufacturers has basically ended, but the overall load position of downstream factories is slowly recovering. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, and stocking operations are mainly based on weak demand to maintain production. Traders lack confidence in the future market, their willingness to build warehouses decreases, and their offers are subject to market conditions, resulting in a slower flow of goods. Overall, the demand side is not providing strong support to the market.

Future forecast

In October, the domestic ABS market was hindered from rising and prices rebounded. Upstream three materials showed mixed ups and downs, providing average comprehensive support for ABS cost side. The load of ABS polymerization plant has slightly increased, while the high inventory of finished products remains unchanged. The weak demand on the demand side is difficult to change, and market trading is weak. The mismatch between supply and demand within the venue has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the ABS market will mainly operate weakly in the short term in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the PVC spot market first rose and then fell this month, and the price continued to rise in the first ten days. After the National Day holiday, the market started and the price rose significantly. Subsequently, the market fell back from a high level, and at the end of the month, the market slightly rebounded. According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of the end of the month, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 5338 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.60%.

2、 Market analysis

Supply side: In the first week after the holiday, due to the improved market environment, the stock and futures markets rose in tandem, PVC futures rose, and the domestic spot market generally followed suit. But the good times didn’t last long. Due to the lack of fundamental support in the market, the supply and demand structure did not improve significantly. In the middle of the month, when there was a reversal in the futures market, spot prices naturally fell. In October, the operating rate of manufacturers generally increased, with over half of them running at full capacity. Market shipment pressure has increased, and dealer offers have continued to decline. Downstream procurement is mainly based on spot prices, with low enthusiasm for inquiry based procurement and a sluggish market atmosphere. The hanging order price is relatively low. Overall, it is still mainly driven by basic needs, and the trading atmosphere is average. The market experienced narrow fluctuations in the latter half of the year, with prices rebounding slightly, but the consolidation range was relatively narrow.

In terms of inventory, PVC inventory remained relatively high in October, and the process of de stocking was slow. As the end of the month approaches, there is a phase of high transaction volume in the market, and social inventory has slightly decreased. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

On the cost side: In October, the calcium carbide market continued its upward trend from the previous month, with prices reaching a new high. According to monitoring by Business Society, the monthly increase in calcium carbide prices was 7.4%. Although the price of calcium carbide continues to rise and the cost of PVC has significantly increased, the cost aspect has not played a strong role due to the pressure of PVC supply and demand. As of the end of the month, the domestic quotation range for PVC SG5 electrical aggregate is mostly around 5150-5350 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

The PVC analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the supply and demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to resolve in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers remains high, with both enterprise inventory and market inventory being high. On the cost side, the upstream price of calcium carbide is unlikely to continue its upward trend, and the cost support is average. From the perspective of the futures market, the PVC futures market has shown weak performance in the later stage, which has affected the confidence of the spot market, and the spot market is generally bearish. It is expected that the PVC spot market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.