1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of aniline has been running steadily this week. On December 9th, the market price of aniline was 9525 yuan/ton, and on December 13th it was 9525 yuan/ton. There was no fluctuation during the period, a decrease of 10.14% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the aniline market digested the increase and maintained stable operation. Due to multiple increases in aniline prices within the week, downstream market entry enthusiasm has weakened, with rigid demand being the main factor. The factory inventory remains at a healthy level, production is stable, and aniline prices are temporarily stable.

Pure benzene: Recently, the pure benzene market has strengthened and consolidated, with increased support for aniline. On December 1st, the average price of pure benzene was 7338 yuan/ton, and on December 13th, the average price of pure benzene was 7856 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.36% during the period.

3、 Future expectations

At present, the northern market for aniline is affected by rainy and snowy weather, resulting in significant transportation resistance and poor factory delivery. It is expected that the aniline market will weaken and consolidate in the short term.

Product Name: Titanium Dioxide

Latest price on December 12th: 14960 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On December 12th, the titanium dioxide market was temporarily stable. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable, while the trader’s quotation is relatively flexible. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and actual orders are cautious. The overall trading situation is relatively light. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14000-15700 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 13000-13200 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

Prediction: The titanium dioxide market is expected to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

The price of epichlorohydrin has continued to rise this week. At present, there is a shortage of spot goods in the market, and supply remains tight. After the price increase, low-priced spot goods are difficult to find, and there has been a decrease in trading orders in the market, with a focus on purchasing small orders for essential needs. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of December 11th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9125.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11% compared to the beginning of this month (9025.00 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors: The market price of propylene liquid chlorine on the raw material side fluctuates. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of December 11th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6858.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the beginning of this month (6845.75 yuan/ton).

Supply side: The atmosphere of epoxy chloropropane in the domestic market continues to rise. At present, due to the parking plans of some enterprises, the supply of spot goods in the market is tight.

Downstream demand side: Under cost support, downstream epoxy resins continue to show an upward trend. Suppliers are cautious in purchasing high priced raw materials and maintain a focus on purchasing for essential needs.

Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the rise and fall of cost side prices are uneven, with downstream demand mainly focused on purchasing and cautious procurement of raw materials. In addition, the market supply is tight, and it is expected that there may be a slight increase in the epoxy chloropropane market in the short term. More attention still needs to be paid to changes in market prices.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of December 9th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4290 yuan/ton. Today, the overall DMF market is weak and declining, with prices dropping by 0.23% compared to the previous day. The price is operating in a narrow and weak range, with a slight downward adjustment.

2、 Market analysis

This week, DMF has undergone a narrow consolidation, with prices slightly falling. Some companies have lowered their prices one after another, and the supply side is stable. On the demand side, downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. The market is in a game of supply and demand, and the mentality of industry players is average, with a strong atmosphere of wait-and-see in the market.

In terms of cost: The upstream methanol supply and demand drive is average, and it will continue to operate narrowly this week. In terms of supply, the overall inventory of the methanol market is currently low, and downstream demand follows suit. Subsequent prices need to continue to pay attention to macro news.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that DMF prices have continued to rise for several days in the past few days and are currently in the stage of digestion and consolidation. It is expected that DMF will maintain its current trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8755 yuan/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 8783 yuan/ton on December 6th, with a price increase of 0.32% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10816 yuan/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 10816 yuan/ton on December 6th, with prices remaining unchanged during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (2426H) was 8757 yuan/ton on November 28th, and the average price was 8562 yuan/ton on December 6th, with a price drop of 0.15% during this period.

Recently, the trend of polyethylene has fluctuated, with narrow adjustments being the main focus. On the supply side, according to data statistics, the maintenance loss of polyethylene plants during the (11.29-12.5) cycle was around 98400 tons, a slight increase of about 1900 tons compared to last week. In December, new production capacity will be gradually put into operation, and there are expectations of an increase in the supply side. Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, with strong market demand, but downstream resistance to high prices has slowed down transactions; On the cost side, international oil prices have fallen due to the unexpected increase in US refined oil inventories, causing market concerns that demand remains weak.

On December 6th, the polyethylene L2501 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange opened at 8366 yuan and closed at 8351 yuan, a decrease of 36 yuan, with a maximum of 8380 yuan and a minimum of 8300 yuan, a decrease of 0.43%. Recently, futures have weakened, dragging down the spot market.

New production capacity will be added in December; In addition, there are no plans to stop for maintenance next week, which is expected to reduce maintenance losses and increase supply expectations; Entering December, the demand for greenhouse film is coming to an end, with a cumulative decrease in orders, and downstream production rates may decrease; It is expected that polyethylene will mainly experience a weak and fluctuating trend.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On December 5th, the average market price was 7636.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous trading day.

Analysis: Today’s domestic pure benzene market price performance is deadlocked, and the trading atmosphere in the market is still acceptable. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7500 yuan/ton. Shandong’s local refining industry focuses on stability, with some companies experiencing slight price reductions and average low-priced shipments on site. International crude oil futures have fallen, affecting confidence in the pure benzene market. It is expected that the pure benzene market will remain stable and stable in the short term, with actual transactions subject to negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda has been weak this month, with an average market price of 1580 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and around 1548 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.18%. On November 28th, the baking soda commodity index was 102.74, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.44% from the highest point of 235.84 points during the cycle (2021-11-10), and an increase of 16.39% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. The price of baking soda in Henan region is consolidating and operating. The factory price of baking soda in Henan region is around 1400-1550 yuan/ton. Due to downstream demand for purchasing, it is expected that consolidation and operation will be the main focus in the later stage. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in November. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1584 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1556 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77% and a decrease of 36.23% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been consolidating recently, with a general trend in the upstream raw material soda ash market. Downstream areas of baking soda, such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will mainly fluctuate in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of December 2, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 7333 yuan/ton. Compared with November 25 (reference price of n-butanol was 7400 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.90%.

Recently (11.24-12.02), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong region of China has been stable with narrow fluctuations. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market saw a slight increase. During the week, the market remained stable and consolidated. As the weekend approaches, some regions in China have a strong willingness to ship n-butanol in the market, resulting in a narrow reduction of n-butanol shipment prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. On December 2nd, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region of China was around 7300-7400 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Currently, some n-butanol units have resumed operation, resulting in an overall increase in supply within the site. The support provided by the supply side to the market is weak.

In terms of demand: At the end of the month, downstream demand for n-butanol showed periodic procurement. Although demand increased, there was still an increase in supply. Therefore, at the end of the month, the overall market showed a dual increase in supply and demand, with narrow fluctuations in the market.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ December 2nd

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

North China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7300-7400 yuan/ton

South China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7650-7750 yuan/ton

East China region/ N-butanol/ Around 7550-7650 yuan/ton

Market analysis in the future

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is mild, and the overall supply and demand transmission in the market is weak. Business Society’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mainly operate with large stability and small movements, and specific changes in supply and demand information need to be closely monitored.

In November, the market price of polyester filament fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 30th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6800-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8100-8500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7100-7400 yuan/ton.

Macroscopically, the news of Iran’s planned military action against Israel at the beginning of the month, coupled with OPEC+’s decision to postpone oil production increases, together constitute favorable factors driving international oil prices to rise for several consecutive days. The strengthening of the cost side has supported the rise in oil prices, however, downstream market demand has not been boosted accordingly, and the demand for filament products appears particularly weak. With the continuous accumulation of filament inventory, enterprises have adopted price reduction and promotion strategies to alleviate inventory pressure, resulting in a decline in market transaction prices. But downstream textile enterprises have relatively abundant raw silk inventory, and their purchasing willingness is not strong. Subsequently, after Trump won the US presidential election, the US dollar index rose significantly, while OPEC lowered its crude oil demand forecast in its monthly report, leading to a volatile downward trend in international oil prices. The raw material market has subsequently weakened, and cost support has weakened, further affecting the confidence of industry insiders. As a result, most filament enterprises have had to increase their promotional efforts again, and the focus of market negotiations has shifted downwards again. Although some downstream users have made moderate purchases during the low price period and the production and sales situation has improved, overall, due to the continued support from the cost side, while terminal and downstream demand has shrunk, the operating rate of weaving machines has decreased.

Since November, the domestic supply of PTA has increased, with a total of over 10 million tons of PTA plants being restarted one after another, and the current industry operating rate is close to 90%. The new PTA production capacity of 2.7 million tons in the East China region is also about to be put into operation, and the PTA supply is still abundant, which is bearish on spot prices. As of November 27th, the average market price in East China was 4783 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.39% from the beginning of the month.

On the supply side: This month, the average operating rate of polyester filament enterprises remained at a high level of about 90.76%. During this period, new production equipment was put into operation in both Xiaoshan and Jiaxing, but at the same time, some equipment underwent a process of production reduction, maintenance, and restart, which slightly increased the overall operating rate of the filament market. The dominant order for downstream clothing this month is still winter warm fabrics. Due to abnormally high temperatures in many areas in the early stage, sales of end clothing have been sluggish, and the number of downstream orders has shown a downward trend compared to the previous period. This has led to a continuous increase in finished product inventory for textile enterprises, fierce price competition in the fabric market, compressed profit margins for orders, and extended payment terms, making it more difficult for enterprises to collect payments and significantly increasing financial pressure.

Although temperatures have started to decline in various regions at present, feedback from the end market is relatively lagging behind. Textile enterprises are mainly digesting inventory, reducing production enthusiasm and increasing the phenomenon of reducing production and burden. The operating rate is also showing a gradual downward trend. Demand remains weak. Downstream demand for essential procurement, the production and sales situation of the filament market continues to be under pressure, only slightly improving during promotional activities. Compared to the same period last month, inventory levels have increased. At present, POY’s inventory is approximately between 15 and 20 days, FDY’s inventory is approximately 18 to 23 days, and DTY’s inventory is around 22 to 26 days.

Overall, there are expectations of weakened cost demand, and the prices in the filament market may continue to decline. However, considering the reduced supply expectations in the filament market and the continued price support mentality of mainstream manufacturers, the downward space is relatively limited. Therefore, we need to pay attention to the trend of filament market production in the future,