According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 2, the average price quoted by domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4866.67 yuan / ton. The market price of DMF rose slightly, and the focus of negotiation shifted upward. Compared with the same period of last month, the price of DMF increased by 1.39% and 1.74% compared with the same period last week.

As of July 2, Luxi Chemical quoted 4550 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu Riyue 4650 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton, Anyang Jiutian 5300 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Xinghua 4650 yuan / ton, Guangdong 5400 yuan / ton, Jiangsu 4950 yuan / ton, Zhejiang 5050 yuan / ton.

Some upstream methanol enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and the methanol price has slightly increased. At present, the methanol market is mainly volatile, and traders operate cautiously.

The chemical index on July 1 was 669, down 1 point from yesterday, 34.15% from the highest point 1016 (2012-03-13), and 11.87% higher than the lowest point 598 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

DMF analysts believe that: in the short term, the DMF market has a steady rise, and continue to pay attention to the change of terminal demand. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.)

In June, the domestic butadiene market fell to the bottom, breaking through the new low of the year. According to the monitoring price of business agency, the domestic butadiene market price was 4140 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 3456 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 16.51% during the month and a decrease of 58.85% compared with the same period last year.

In June, the weak downward trend of domestic butadiene market continued, and the arrival of ocean going ships was abundant. Although there was a certain demand for butadiene in the downstream factories of Shandong Province, the market was still weak under the influence of abundant supply of tank farms. Some northeast spot resources were not traded smoothly, and the prices of manufacturers kept falling under pressure, and the market focus fell with the overall situation. Recently, the external market has been in a low level, Sinopec’s butadiene supply price has been lowered, and Shenhua Ningxia coal and Yangba butadiene plants have been restarted in the middle and late June, adding to the expected arrival of European ships. As a result, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market continues to increase. Although the start-up of major downstream industries remains relatively high, it is difficult to reverse the downward trend of butadiene market rapidly under the pressure of supply side. In the internal and external market are not clear news guidance, butadiene market continued to low range finishing.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price was adjusted from 900 yuan / ton to 3600 yuan / ton on a month-on-month basis; Huajin butadiene plant in North China was in stable operation. As of June 29, the bottom bid price was 3210 yuan / ton, the transaction price was 3216 yuan / ton, and the total transaction volume was 260 tons in the month; Sinopec 200000 tons / year butadiene unit was shut down for maintenance on May 9, and the shutdown device was maintained within the month with planned weight The start-up time may be in July; Shenhua Ningxia coal’s 64000 T / a butadiene plant will be shut down for maintenance around May 5 and restart on June 22, with the price of 2610 yuan / T as of June 30; the butadiene plant of Dalian Hengli 140000 tons / year is in stable operation, with the listing price of 3310 yuan / ton as of June 30, down 470 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month.

In terms of industrial chain, downstream SBR: the domestic SBR market fell first and then rose in June. In view of the fact that the market situation of styrene butadiene in late May remained depressed and the raw material butadiene market was running weakly, the styrene butadiene production enterprises had marginal profits, had high enthusiasm to start operation, and the contradiction between supply and demand was intensified. Therefore, at the beginning of the month, the sales companies successively decreased the ex factory price of styrene butadiene, and the market increased the price in a narrow range around the supply price after the fall, and tentatively delivered goods. Since the middle of June, although the fundamental improvement is limited and the negative factors are still obvious, Shanghai Rubber and its spot stock have strong support for styrene butadiene rubber. In addition, the related products of cis-1,4-butadiene rubber plant maintenance news speculation, the supplier performance is strong, and gradually increase the price of styrene butadiene, but due to the drag of raw materials and demand, the increase is relatively limited; traders are cautious, continue to increase the price, and the actual high price transaction resistance Obviously.

CIS polybutadiene rubber: in June, the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell first and then rose. At the beginning of June, the pressure of the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the market inversion intensified, and the supply price gradually dropped to around 7400 yuan / ton. Since August 8, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene started to rebound. Sinopec North China took the lead in the rise of 100 yuan / ton. The inverted trend of the market gradually changed, and the companies gradually turned to offer for price increase. Subsequently, with the follow-up of downstream procurement and the support of the price difference between cis-1-butadiene and natural rubber, the market turned to an upward trend. At the end of June, the maintenance news of cis-1,4-polybutadiene units such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was hyped. The ex factory supply price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene was raised again to around 8200 yuan / T. the market also maintained the trend of price increase, and the premium range was larger than that in the earlier stage.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in June 2020, there were 40 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the chemical industry sector, of which 18 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 20% of the total number of commodities monitored in this plate; the top three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (32.19%), ethylene (24.98%) and sulfur (24.05%). There were 43 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 17.8% of the total number of monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products were butadiene (- 16.51%), chloroform (- 13.04%) and acetic anhydride (- 12.50%). This month, the average rise and fall was 0.97%.

In the future, with the consolidation of butadiene in the low-end price range for a long time, the downstream profits improved significantly, boosting the relatively high start-up, and there was a certain bottom support for the butadiene market in terms of demand. However, in the second quarter, imports of butadiene were abundant. From mid to late June, with the restart of Shenhua Ningmei, Yangba and Sinopec units in early July, the domestic supply continued to increase, and the short-term market fundamentals remained under pressure. From the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter, there are still 430000 T / a units of Baolai petrochemical, Sinopec, Quanzhou petrochemical and Yantai Wanhua with a total of 430000t / A. supply pressure may become normal and there is no obvious improvement in fundamentals. Under the boost, butadiene analysts of business community predict that the domestic butadiene market in July will continue to fluctuate in the bottom range, and it is suggested to pay attention to the latest prices and costs of internal and external plates Hand in the situation guide.

On June 29, the cryolite commodity index was 68.83, up 0.81 points compared with yesterday, 31.99% lower than 101.21 points (2011-10-31), and 3.74% higher than 66.35 points, the lowest point on September 05, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the price trend of domestic cryolite market increased slightly. The average price of cryolite in Henan was 5666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.19% compared with last weekend, and 10.53% lower than last year. At present, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan Province is 4800-6200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong Province is 5000-6800 yuan / ton. The manufacturers start operation normally and the inventory is sufficient. The enterprises hold a bullish attitude.

On the upstream side, the price of fluorite increased slightly, with the average price of 2800 yuan / ton in the domestic market. At present, the supply of on-site goods is normal, and the sales situation is general. Enterprises have responded that the recent inquiry situation has increased, and the fluorite price may rise slightly in the later stage. In terms of downstream aluminum industry, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity has not fully recovered since the production reduction in mid March. The domestic aluminum ingot spot supply has decreased, and the demand performance is general, and the aluminum industry may continue to fluctuate in the later stage.

Analysts of cryolite products from the business agency believe that: on the supply side, cryolite enterprises are operating normally, with sufficient inventory, and the manufacturer’s quotation is mainly multidimensional and stable; the upstream market of cryolite has an upward trend, and it is expected that the cryolite market will rise in the later stage, with specific attention to the market demand.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the domestic acetic acid market has been steadily rising. As of June 29, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 2236 yuan / ton, 3.23% higher than that on June 9, 2166 yuan / ton, and 9.32% lower than that of the same period last month. At present, there are 2200-2300 yuan / ton in Shandong, 2150-2250 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 2250-2350 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 2000-2100 yuan / ton in Henan, 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Hebei and 1880-1930 yuan / ton in Northwest China.

Production performance of plant capacity (10000 tons / year)

Yankuang Guotai 110 has a daily output of about 3000 tons

Hualu Hengsheng 50 has a daily output of about 1500 tons

Yangzi BP 50 has a daily output of about 1300 tons

Celanese 120 parking on June 17

Jiangsu Sopu 120 has a daily output of about 3000 tons

Jiantao, Hebei Province, has a daily output of about 1500 tons

Tianjin Bohua 35 has a daily output of about 1000 tons

Henan Shunda 40 has a daily output of about 1200 tons

Henan Longyu 50 has a daily output of about 1100 tons

Henan Yima 25 parking

About 1000 tons per day in Shaanxi Province

Shanghai Huayi 70 is being restarted

Anhui Huayi 50 has a daily output of about 1300 tons

Dalian Hengli 35

At present, the domestic acetic acid market is rising steadily, with little increase. Affected by the slow load raising of Huayi plant in Shanghai, the spot supply in East China is tight, and the inventory of enterprises has decreased significantly; the price of acetic acid in North and central China is mostly stable, and affected by the acetic acid price in East China, it remains firm in a short period of time. The downstream market mainly digests the long-term contract, and the purchase of acetic acid is just needed, and the market transaction situation is flat.

In the upstream market, the methanol market tends to be stable after a small rise, and the transaction volume in the industry is light. The market is in a wait-and-see situation after the festival, with about 1645 yuan / ton at present. On the other hand, the downstream industries such as vinyl acetate and acetate were affected by the cost side support, and the prices rose steadily. After the festival, enterprises’ shipment was smooth, but the downstream market demand was limited, and the support was flat in the long run.

The acetic acid analysts of the business society believe that although the early maintenance enterprises have resumed production, but the products are more supplied to long-term customers, and the acetic acid spot is still tense in a short time, but the demand support of the downstream market is limited. It is expected that the acetic acid market will be strong in a short time, and the price increase will be limited.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell in June, and the market of acetic anhydride fell with the market of acetic acid. As of June 28, the average price of acetic anhydride enterprises was 5300.00 yuan / ton, down 14.52% compared with 6200.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and up 4.61% compared with the same period last year.

Specific index of acetic acid acetic anhydride:

 
On June 28, the commodity price ratio index of acetic acid and acetic anhydride was 90.89, which was the same as yesterday, 35.85% lower than the highest point 141.68 (June 5, 2018), and 30.33% higher than the lowest point 69.74 on August 4, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2015-01-01 till now). In the near future, the price index of acetic anhydride and acetic acid is relatively stable, and the rising power of acetic anhydride is insufficient. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will maintain stability in the future.

Price trend of acetic acid acetic anhydride:

It can be seen from the price trend of acetic acid that the price of acetic anhydride fell with the price trend of acetic acid in June. Since the end of June, the acetic acid market has been stable, and the negative effect on acetic anhydride market has weakened.

Market Overview:

Generally speaking, the price of acetic acid fell in June, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride fell in shock, which was bad for the market of acetic anhydride, but since the late ten days, the decline of acetic acid slowed down and the bad for acetic anhydride weakened. The lower operating rate of acetic anhydride enterprises and the basic stable procurement in the downstream make the market of acetic anhydride in the future have a certain upward momentum, and it is expected that the market of acetic anhydride in the future will be strong and stable.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of June 24, the average ex factory price of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber in China was 9500 yuan / ton, down 28 yuan / ton, or 0.30%, or 17.03% year-on-year. Cotton linter prices continue to rise, viscose manufacturers said that the market price has no market, part of the long-term production, high inventory prices. The actual market quotation is slightly lower, and the main quotation range is 8400-9600 yuan / ton.

Last week, the supply of cotton linter was general, and some manufacturers raised the price of cotton linter to reduce the loss, with obvious intention of inflation. However, the demand of downstream chemical fiber plants and refined cotton plants is difficult to support, the overall rise is limited, and most of them remain stable. Considering that it is still a long time for new cotton linter to go on the market, it is expected that cotton linter will still maintain stability, supply and demand are still the focus of the industry, and the difference of regional demand will also lead to quotation changes.

 
On June 24, the commodity price ratio index of viscose staple fiber and human cotton yarn was 96.40, which was the same as yesterday, 3.96% lower than the highest point of 100.38 (2019-07-21) in the cycle, and 13.51% higher than the lowest point of 84.93 on January 5, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-01-01 till now)

The price of human cotton yarn generally fell. As of June 24, the average ex factory price of 30s cotton yarn in Shandong was 13867 yuan / ton, down 0.48% compared with the price in the first ten days of June, down 19.85% year on year. There are few orders for human cotton yarn, the price of upstream raw materials remains firm, and there is a situation of production suspension. The depressed market makes viscose manufacturers tired of price adjustment, after all, there is no market for price. Some people’s cotton yarn manufacturers have broken down in their attitude of sticking to the price, and their prices have been continuously reduced by more than 1000 yuan / ton. The market quotation range is 12600-15000 yuan / ton.

Business analysts believe that although cotton linter has strong willingness to hold up the price, due to the shipping pressure, viscose has a downward trend, the price of cotton yarn for high price people has dropped, while the price of cotton yarn for low price people is mainly stable, and it is expected that the price of cotton yarn for people will fluctuate and fall.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the recent cobalt market is not good, and the price of cobalt has dropped sharply. As of June 23, the price of cobalt was 247000.00 yuan / ton, down 3.39% compared with 255666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; after June 11, the price of cobalt fell continuously, down 3.77% compared with 256666.67 yuan / ton on June 23. Cobalt prices have fallen sharply in the near future.

International cobalt Market

According to LME market data, since the middle of June, the international cobalt market has fallen and the price of cobalt has fallen sharply. The price of cobalt on June 22 was US $28850 / ton, down 650 / ton from US $29500 / ton on June 11. International cobalt prices fell sharply, dragging down domestic cobalt market.

Time, category, specification, lowest price, up and down, highest price, up and down unit

June 22 standard cobalt 14.15 0 14.75 0 USD / lb

June 22 alloy grade cobalt 14.15 0 14.75 0 USD / lb

June 19 standard cobalt 14.15-0.35 14.75-0.15 USD / lb

June 19 alloy cobalt 14.15-0.35 14.75-0.25 USD / lb

June 18 standard grade cobalt 14.5 0 14.9 0 USD / lb

June 18 alloy grade cobalt 14.5 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 17 standard cobalt 14.5-0.1 14.9-0.1 USD / lb

June 17 alloy cobalt 14.5-0.1150 USD / lb

June 16 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 16 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 15 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 15 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 12 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 12 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

June 11 standard cobalt $14.60 15 / lb

June 11 alloy grade cobalt 14.6 0 15 0 USD / lb

As can be seen from the table, since the middle of June, the price of cobalt has fallen in shock, and the price of MB has fallen sharply since the 17th. International cobalt market fell sharply, negative for domestic cobalt price.

Domestic cobalt market volume

Date, variety, delivery volume, inventory unit

1023 tons of cobalt 2020-6-23

7 993 tons of cobalt 2020-6-22

2020-6-19 cobalt 11 980 tons

1 969 tons of cobalt 2020-6-18

2020-6-17 cobalt 1.5 956.5 tons

2020-6-16 cobalt 5.25 958.75 tons

2020-6-15 cobalt 1 949.75 tons

2020-6-12 cobalt 17 932.25 tons

2020-6-11 cobalt 11.25 912.5 tons

2020-6-10 cobalt 10 906.5 tons

From the trading situation of cobalt in Wuxi stainless steel market, since the middle of June, the trading volume of cobalt in Wuxi market has increased, and the stock of cobalt has increased substantially. As a whole, the stock of domestic cobalt market has increased, and the trading volume is average. The supply of domestic cobalt market is stable and the transaction is average. Cobalt market fell under pressure.

Market Overview

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that the international cobalt market is low and the international cobalt price is fluctuating and falling, which is bad for the domestic cobalt market. The stock of domestic cobalt market increased greatly, the transaction was general, and the overall international cobalt market fell sharply, dragging down the cobalt market. Cobalt market is weak, but there is limited space for cobalt price to fall. Cobalt price is expected to fluctuate slightly in the future.

The spot tin market price of this week (6.15-6.19) is mainly volatile. The average price in the domestic market is 138737.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 139412.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 0.49%.

On June 21, the tin commodity index was 71.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.16% from the highest point of 100.25 in the cycle (2011-09-05), and up 65.70% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In terms of futures, the overall volatility of Lunxi fell this week. After falling to the lowest point of this week at the beginning of this week, it bottomed out and rebounded. From Tuesday to Friday, the volatility was dominant, with a weekly decline of 1.09%. 892 transactions were completed, 17680 positions were held, 1583 positions were reduced. The Shanghai tin 2008 contract was first restrained and then increased this week. At the beginning of this week, the domestic situation affected the price at the beginning of this week. Since Tuesday, driven by the metal market, the price rose by 0.27% weekly, with 215000 transactions and 31313 positions.

This week, the domestic spot market followed the trend of Shanghai tin market and then rose. On Monday, the price followed the downward trend of futures market. Some traders purchased, and the market was in good trading. Since Tuesday, the price has been rising continuously, and the downstream is mainly watching. There is a resistance to the high price. The market trading was slightly cold. As of Friday, the market price was 138000-140500 yuan / ton, up about 300 yuan / ton from last week.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 24th week of 2020 (6.15-6.19), there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, among which the top three commodities are zinc (3.04%), lead (2.66%) and nickel (1.89%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling are praseodymium neodymium oxide (- 1.73%), neodymium metal (- 1.20%) and silicon metal (- 1.09%). This week’s average was 0.12%. This week, the metal market was the main player in general, and all countries released favorable policies to stimulate the economy. The domestic futures market was boosted upward. This week, the zinc and lead markets performed more prominently, while the tin market was relatively stable.

The business club predicts that the Long Dragon Boat Festival holiday in China will be seen next week, the trading day will be shortened, and there will be some demand for goods preparation before the festival. There are many favorable factors in the basic form of the metal market. As the downstream demand is weak, and the willingness of traders to receive goods is not strong, it is expected that Shanghai and Wuxi will operate weakly in the next week.

1、 Price trend

 
2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business agency, the potassium sulfate Market is stable this week. Mannheim potassium sulfate: About 2550% powder; about 2650% granules and 52% water-soluble powder. Report station of potassium sulfate manufacturer in water salt system: Xinjiang 52% powder 2450; Qinghai 50% powder 2250-2300. Potassium sulfate Market is relatively stable, local low-end prices rebounded. The operation rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate in the southwest market is stable at about 85%, and the sales of each factory is in good condition. Some factories receive orders at a low price very well. The order plan has been arranged to the middle of July, so it has increased slightly. The price in the Northwest market is still at a low level, and the factory is fully open to meet the market demand, and the supply is a little tight. However, due to the competition of potassium sulfate in the water salt system, the price cannot be increased temporarily. The price of potassium sulphate in Qinghai water salt system is stable for the time being, and the sales are average. The upstream market of potassium chloride continued to decline, while the downstream purchase of small single compound fertilizer, with general demand.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, although the market of potassium fertilizer is low, the manufacturers of potassium sulphate are not under great pressure, the market is sufficient, and there will be a stable period of potassium sulphate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 18, the spot price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber and 32S polyester yarn in Shandong Province ran smoothly compared with yesterday. The average price of 1.4d polyester staple fiber in the national market was about 6670 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton, up about 0.6% compared with the beginning of June; the average price of 32S polyester yarn in Shandong market was about 13260 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, up about 1.53% compared with June.

2、 Factors affecting prices

From the upstream fundamentals, as of June 15, the domestic PTA social inventory has reached about 3.55 million tons, with a decrease of nearly 90000 tons compared with the end of May; the glycol social inventory is about 1.334 million tons, which is a new high inventory in the year. Due to the serious accumulation in the early stage, the trend of high inventory will continue in the short term, and PTA and glycol are expected to remain weak in the short term. In addition, some polyester plants are expected to be put into operation in June, with a total capacity of about 1.55 million tons. Shenghong and hengliheng are expected to be put into production in June, and the short-term PTA and glycol accumulation situation is hard to change.

According to customs data, from January to may 2020, China’s textile and clothing exports totaled US $96.16 billion, down 1.17% year on year. Since the middle of May, overseas orders have gradually recovered. According to downstream enterprises, although the situation of export orders has improved, the prospect is not clear. Because the demand for overseas export orders is not as expected, domestic demand has been slowly rising, domestic demand digestion is limited, and prices are low Only supported by the cost side, there is no other positive upward mobility, and the expectation of businesses is generally low.

Summer is coming, facing the traditional textile off-season. According to some downstream businesses, 1.4d polyester staple fiber has fallen this week. The spot price is 30 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The spot price of 32S polyester yarn rises and falls with each other. Due to the support of the raw material end, some businesses still choose to ship at a stable price. At present, the number of orders received by enterprises is seriously insufficient, and the connection of overseas orders is difficult. In order to avoid the pressure of stock accumulation, some textile enterprises in Zhejiang have issued the notice of suspension of production and holiday. Due to the imbalance of supply and demand, the downstream shipment is difficult, the market panic spreads, and the trading atmosphere is seriously insufficient.

In terms of futures, Zheng Mian’s main contract rebounded in shock driven by the rise of US stocks and US oil, and finally closed at 19280 yuan / ton, up 90 yuan / ton or 0.47% compared with the previous trading day.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the overseas situation is not clear, foreign trade orders are difficult to continue, facing the summer off-season, domestic demand release is insufficient, facing the upstream PTA, glycol and other raw materials accumulation situation, polyester short and yarn prices are still difficult to rise in the short term, and it is expected that prices will be weak in the short term.