According to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Angola’s oil production in January 2019 was 1416,000 barrels a day, a decrease of 75,000 barrels annually.

In an interview with reporters, Saudi Minister of Energy, Industry and Mines Falkh said that Saudi Arabia intends to further reduce production in March in order to balance the global oil supply and demand relationship. Fallich said Saudi oil production in March was 9.8 million barrels per day, more than 500,000 barrels lower than the promised output reduction agreement of OPEC. Saudi oil exports in March are expected to be 6.9 million barrels a day. Brent crude oil rose 2% to nearly $63 that day. Fallich also said that if the United States introduced anti-monopoly legislation against OPEC, it would damage the global economy.

According to customs statistics, in January this year, China’s total value of import and export of goods trade was 2.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports increased by 13.9% to 1.5 trillion yuan, imports by 1.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9%, and trade surplus by 27.116 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 times.

Priced in US dollars, China’s total import and export value in January was US$395.98 billion, an increase of 4%. Among them, $217.57 billion in exports, an increase of 9.1%, $178.41 billion in imports, a decrease of 1.5%, and $39.16 billion in trade surplus, an increase of 1.1 times.

General trade has grown rapidly and its share has increased. In January, China’s general trade imports and exports reached 1.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 13%, accounting for 60.9% of the total value of our foreign trade, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, exports amounted to 896.3 billion yuan, an increase of 20.9%; imports amounted to 766 billion yuan, an increase of 5%; and trade surplus amounted to 130.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10 times. In the same period, the import and export of processing trade dropped by 0.9% to 680.7 billion yuan, accounting for 24.9% and by 2.4 percentage points. Among them, exports amounted to 435.86 billion yuan, an increase of 3%; imports amounted to 244.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 7%; and trade surplus amounted to 191.02 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5%. In addition, China imports and exports 279.73 billion yuan by means of bonded logistics, an increase of 9.3%, accounting for 10.2% of the total value of our foreign trade. Among them, exports amounted to 90.69 billion yuan, an increase of 13.9%, while imports amounted to 189.04 billion yuan, an increase of 7.2%.

Among them, crude oil, natural gas and other commodities imports increased, iron ore and soybean imports decreased, and the average price of commodity imports rose and fell. In January, China imported 91.26 million tons of iron ore, a decrease of 9.1%, the average import price was 511.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 7.4%; crude oil 42.6 million tons, an increase of 5.1%, the average import price was 3021.1 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.1%; coal 33.5 million tons, an increase of 19.5%, the average import price was 576.4 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.68 million tons; soybean 7.38 million tons, a decrease of 13%, the average import price was 3101.5 yuan per ton, an increase of 12.1%; natural gas 9.1 million tons. The average import price increased by 26.8% to 3416.2 yuan per ton, up by 30.8%; the average import price of refined oil increased by 17.5%, and the average import price was 3681.7 yuan per ton, up by 4.1%; the average import price of plastics in primary shape increased by 7.4%, and the average import price was 104,000 yuan per ton, down by 7.3%; the average import price of steel was 118,000 tons, down by 1%, and the average import price was 8178.3 yuan per ton, down by 0.6%; the average import of unwroughed copper and copper was 480,000 tons, up by 0,000 tons. The average import price was 44.9 million yuan per ton, down 8.5%. In addition, the import of mechanical and electrical products was 519.63 billion yuan, down by 1.6%; of which 32.42 billion integrated circuits, down by 9.7%, value of 16.02 billion yuan, down by 35%; 80,000 cars, down by 12.3%, value of 27.82 billion yuan, down by 1%.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report Wednesday that even if OPEC cuts production and the United States imposes sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, it will be difficult for the global oil market to absorb the fast-growing crude oil supply outside OPEC this year, Reuters reported in London.

The IEA maintained its demand growth forecast for 2019, unchanged from the previous report (released in January), which still stands at 1.4 million barrels a day.

“The drop in oil prices and the start-up of Sinopec and American Petrochemical projects are supporting this trend, but the slowdown in global economic growth will limit any upside space,” the IEA said.

The IEA raised its estimate of growth in crude oil supply outside OPEC from 1.6 million barrels a day to 1.8 million barrels a day in 2019.

The agency also downgraded its forecast for OPEC’s crude oil demand. OPEC has pledged to reduce OPEC’s crude oil production by 800,000 barrels a day this year as part of an agreement with other non-OPEC producers such as Russia, Oman and Kazakhstan.

According to current forecasts, OPEC crude oil production in 2019 is 30.7 million barrels per day, lower than the last estimate of 31.6 million barrels per day by the International Energy Agency in January.

The International Tin Association reports that four of the top ten refined tin producers in the world increased their production in 2018, including three of the top five.

The top five companies ranked the same as in 2017. However, there were significant changes outside the top five. Jiangxi Xinnanshan rose to No. 6 from the top 10 in 2017, while Vento, Tesaco and Metlo all dropped by one place compared with 2017. Guangxi Huaxi changed from 7th to 9th place in 2017. Gejiu ranks outside the top 10 for the first time since 2014.

Yunnan Tin Industry still maintains its position as the world’s largest refined tin producer by a large margin, and its output increased slightly in 2018. Yunxi’s reported output is 77,000 tons, including overseas processing. Private smelters in Indonesia are not included in this year’s rankings because they are not available for production information. It’s likely that the largest producer among them is not in the tenth place.

Tianma reported that its refined tin production increased by 11% in 2018 to about 33,400 tons (unaudited), the highest level since 2011. As far as we know, the increase in Tianma’s output is due to the increase in concentrate supply after the export of Indonesian private smelters was restricted in the fourth quarter of 2018. This year, Indonesia’s output will face greater uncertainty due to persistent export problems. However, we believe that Tianma’s output will grow slightly as a result of investing in a new smoking furnace and increasing capital expenditure for capacity expansion.

Mingsu’s production in Peru increased by 2% from 18,000 tons in 2017 to 18,300 tons (unaudited) last year, while its Brazilian subsidiary Tobacco’s refined tin production dropped by more than 1%. Peru’s output was relatively flat in Mingsu, mainly because of the contribution of the company’s new ore separation plant, which helped maintain production levels despite the decline in raw ore grade at the San Rafael mine. We believe that this situation will continue this year and expect stable production in Peru, Mingsu.

Finally, in Europe, although Metlo’s production declined by 4%, the total production of refined tin in Europe increased by 1% in 2018, reaching about 13,100 tons.

Cairo, Reuters reported that Egypt’s oil ministry said in a statement that Saudi Arabia’s Amy trading agency, Saudi Arabia’s Amy Trading Company (ATC), had signed an agreement with Egypt’s SUMED Company to provide 222,000 cubic meters of natural gas storage capacity in Sidi Kerir, Egypt, before exporting it to Europe.

The two companies also signed a second agreement to provide 165,000 cubic meters of fuel storage capacity at Ain Sokhna, the Red Sea port, the statement said.

The statement said the agreement could include re-exporting and supplying fuel oil to Saudi power plants to meet the needs of the Egyptian market and to fuel ships in the region.

SUMED’s 50% stake is held by the Egyptian government and the rest by Arab oil exporters in the Gulf region.

These agreements were signed on the sidelines of the Cairo Energy Forum.

Last spring was not a busy season, and this is not the only tragedy last year? Potassium fertilizer prices have been slowly declining since before New Year’s Day to the Spring Festival. In this spring, the spring wind can also blow potash fertilizer here? Hope! It’s better to calculate. Today, let’s calculate the potassium sulfate. Potassium sulfate can be divided into three major plates from the production process, namely, the traditional Mannheim potassium sulfate, the later dominant water-salt system potassium sulfate and the “unknown” ammonium sulfate method potassium sulfate. At present, potassium sulfate by ammonium sulfate method mainly exists in individual downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers, the quantity is not large and the content is low, so it is mainly used by the manufacturers themselves, seldom circulated in the market, so it is called “obscurity”, which is generally neglected. But for Mannheim, it may become a threat that has to be considered in the future.

The competition between Mannheim potassium sulfate and potassium sulfate in water salt system has become increasingly fierce in recent years. Because in terms of productivity, a single Mannheim or a water-salt system of potassium sulfate can almost be alone. According to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the apparent consumption of potassium sulfate in 2018 is about 3.6 million tons. By the end of 2018, the effective production capacity of Mannheim is about 3 million tons. The total production capacity of potassium sulfate in water-salt system is about 3.7 million tons, of which Ro-K alone accounts for nearly half of the total production capacity of water-salt system.

According to the historical data of the past three years from 2016 to 2018 of China Fertilizer Network, the apparent consumption of potassium sulphate (non-statistical ammonium sulphate method) in China is about 4.4 million tons, 4.1 million tons and 3.6 million tons, respectively. In these three years, the output of potassium sulphate in water-salt system is 2.45 million tons, 2.43 million tons and 2.31 million tons, accounting for 55-56% of the total output in that year, and the output of potassium sulphate in Mannheim is 1.95 million tons and 1.94 million tons respectively The average operating rates of 1.89 million tons and 1.95 million tons are 65%, 62% and 65% respectively according to the current year’s capacity (the capacity in 2018 is about 200,000 tons less than that in 2017).

A year ago, there was a popular saying, “Be prepared to live a hard life in 2019″. This applies equally in the fertilizer market. First, the price of grain is not ideal, the enthusiasm of planting is affected, second, the “friction” is continuing, repeatedly causing “annoyance”, third, the economic environment is not good, the funds are tightened, and policy fluctuations. So whether we continue to weaken or not, let’s first assume that consumption of potassium sulfate will stabilize at about 3.6 million tons in 2019, and then add historical experience. If potassium sulfate wants to gradually improve in 2019 and its stock can return to normal level by the end of the year, the result of “output-export volume” will be no more than 3.2 million tons.

The export volume of potassium sulfate has been only 120,000 tons in the past few years, which could reach about 200,000 tons in small packages. In 2019, the export tariff of chemical fertilizer will be fully liberalized, and how much breakthrough will be made in the export of potassium sulfate on the basis of 200,000 tons? This is a long way to go, I am afraid, because the international market is not very expected now, and the original demand capacity is not very large, coupled with the coveted International new capacity. Assuming that we seize the opportunity and work hard, we can finally export 400,000 tons, then the total output should be 3.6 million tons.

If the output of potassium sulphate is stable in 2019, the stock of potassium sulphate will reach a record level of one million tons by the end of the year; if the total output is controlled at about 3.6 million tons, then the output of potassium sulphate from Mannheim and Mannheim will be reduced to 2 million tons and 1.6 million tons, respectively, according to the proportion of the output of the above water-salt system, that is to say, the industry year of Mannheim potassium sulphate. The average start-up rate is reduced to 55% from 60-65% in the previous three years.

In fact, the above estimates are not so much “truth” as far as they are concerned. They are only pure estimates, but I believe that the author has assumed a more optimistic situation. In fact, the pressure may be greater than expected, because the export is expected, but the quantity is not very promising, because the price competition between Mannheim potassium sulfate and potassium sulfate in water salt system will be upgraded again after the decline of potassium chloride, because there are still manufacturers ready to expand production and new projects in operation.

Nevertheless, the stock of potassium sulfate carried over in 2015 is quite large, but the market in 2016 is still not very good, but at the end of the year, the stock has decreased significantly, which is due to the rise in demand caused by low prices; moreover, the above calculations seem frightening, but after all, it is assumed that the hypothesis means that the possibility of change can not be ruled out. In a word, this “calculation” is not to harm manufacturers to lose confidence and motivation, but to remind, to avoid possible risks in an impatient manner. Shortly after the beginning of 2019, the policy and strategy of this year should be carefully considered.

U.S. energy companies increased the number of oil rigs they operated this year for the first time this week, but the number of rigs dropped the most in January since April 2016. With the Permian boom in the largest shale oil formation in the United States, oil production has cooled down.

Energy services company Baker Hughes said in a report released on Friday that in the week ending January 25, energy companies added 10 oil rigs, bringing the total number to 862.

More than half of the oil rigs in the United States are located in the Permian basin, the country’s largest shale oil formation. The number of existing rigs in the region increased by three to 484 this week, far below the 493 that reached their four-year high in November last year.

Energy companies cut 23 oil rigs this month, the largest number of cuts since April 2016. Over the past two months, they added 12 in November and cut two oil rigs in December.

The number of oil rigs in the U.S. is an early indicator of future production, and this year is higher than a year ago (759 rigs were active last year), because energy companies are investing more money to get higher prices.

However, in 2019, energy companies said they planned to cut drilling rigs, partly because crude oil prices were expected to be lower than last year.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) forecast this week, oil production in seven major shale formations in the United States is expected to rise to a record 8.2 million barrels a day in February. But EIA expects the Permian production growth in February to be the smallest month since May 2018, when production declined slightly.

In recent months, because of the sharp drop in oil prices, oil production has surged, exceeding pipeline transportation capacity, which has made the oil reserves in the region in trouble, and the Permian oil production has been under pressure.

According to John Kemp, a Reuters columnist, the U.S. shale boom will cool down this year, and a fall in prices later last year (which usually takes three to four months to affect drilling) is likely to slow production growth in the second half of 2019.

According to Baker Hughes, there are 1059 active oil and gas rigs in the United States this week. Most rigs produce oil and gas at the same time.

On January 27, the fluorite commodity index was 123.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 3.12% lower than the cyclical peak of 127.49 points (2019-01-03), and 150.99% higher than the lowest point of 49.21 on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price trend has been slightly lower, the average domestic fluorite price as of 28 days is 3510 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of strict environmental protection inspection, some domestic fluorite plants have been shut down in the near future, while the supply of fluorite in the field has been relatively reduced, but the recent downstream market is not good, and the price of fluorite market has slightly declined. In addition to the low temperature, the low start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has aggravated the shortage of domestic fluorite supply. In the southern fluorite market, the start-up of devices has also been reduced, and the supply of fluorite in the field is tight, but the downstream terminal receipt is not active, resulting in a slight drop in market prices. As of the 28th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 3200-3600 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 3400-3700 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 3300-3600 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 3200-3600 yuan/ton.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite has declined. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 12416.67 yuan/ton as of 28 days, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined. In addition, the upstream refrigerant products have more maintenance devices, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly declined. Recent market of refrigerant in downstream terminal market has been cool, with R22 refrigerant facility starting at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility starting rate declining, bulk water outlet quotation of main production enterprises declining to 1700-18000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprises, mainly a small amount of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened. Generally speaking, there are many downstream negative factors, but because of the poor start-up of fluorite market devices and the high price of fluorite, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the price of fluorite market may be slightly lower due to the weakening downstream demand.

Premier Oil’s second assessment well in the Zama project off the coast of Mexico has shown more oil potential, raising hopes of finding large oil fields.

Premier shares a 25% stake in the area with Taros Energy and Sierra Oil and Gas, and its share price rose more than 4% in early trading.

The company said that the total net percentage of rock representing the amount of oil and gas that can be stored reached 73%, which is higher than pre-drilling estimates and 63% higher than its first evaluation well.

Chief Executive Tony Durrant said: “This is a good start for the Zama Block 7 evaluation project in Mexico. It enhances our interpretation of Zama’s large discoveries and our confidence in resource estimates.

Premier said the reservoir quality was similar to Zama1 and met expectations.

David Round, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets, said the results were positive and he expected it would “boost confidence in Zama’s trading volume forecasts.”

However, the company said it had found no oil in a deeper exploration prospect called Marte.

Premier said it would now drill another well based on the original well of Zama-2 evaluation well, which was deepened to assess the high-risk Marte exploration prospects.

Taros Energy said Wednesday that the initial phase of the assessment plan was completed about 28 days ahead of schedule, which is 25% cheaper than the original plan.