In 2018, China’s aluminium industry deepened the structural reform of the supply side, strictly controlled the new capacity of electrolytic aluminium, promoted the replacement of the capacity of electrolytic aluminium, and the overall operation of the industry was stable. However, the impact of trade frictions gradually emerged, production costs continued to rise, industry benefits declined, and the overall development situation was not optimistic. First, the output increased year on year, and the growth rate of aluminium materials decreased. In 2018, the output of alumina, electrolytic aluminium and aluminium materials reached 72.53 million tons, 35.8 million tons and 45.54 million tons, respectively, increasing by 9.9%, 7.4% and 2.6% compared with the same period last year. Considering the adjustment of statistical data, the output growth rate of electrolytic aluminium increased by 5 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Due to the impact of trade frictions and the low domestic consumption, the growth rate of aluminium production fell by 7 percentage points last year.

Second, prices have fallen, costs have risen and benefits have declined significantly. In 2018, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminium was 14262 yuan/ton, down 1.8% year on year. Due to environmental protection rectification, bauxite prices continued to rise, coal prices rose, energy saving and emission reduction costs of enterprises increased, the comprehensive production cost of electrolytic aluminium increased significantly year on year. In 2018, the profit of the aluminium industry was 37.2 billion yuan, down 40% from the same period last year. Among them, the profit of aluminium mining and processing is 700 million yuan, up 19.6% from the same period last year; the profit of aluminium smelting and aluminium processing industry is 112 billion yuan and 25.4 billion yuan, down 54.6% and 31.4% respectively.

Third, capacity replacement has been accelerating and industrial structure has been further optimized. Since the issuance of Notice on Capacity Replacement of Electrolytic Aluminum Enterprises through Mergers and Restructuring (No. 12, 2018), more than 4 million tons of capacity of electrolytic aluminium have been replaced across provinces. Among them, more than 3 million tons of capacity have been transferred to energy-rich areas such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. While maintaining strict control over the high-pressure situation of capacity of electrolytic aluminium, the industrial structure of electrolytic aluminium has been continuously improving. Change.

Fourthly, the export of aluminium materials has increased substantially, and the international trade environment is not optimistic. Influenced by the fluctuation of the price difference of aluminium materials at home and abroad and the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, China’s aluminium exports in 2018 amounted to 5.23 million tons, an increase of 23.4% over the same period last year. The suspension of production at Heidelou Alumina Plant in Brazil has resulted in a shortage of alumina supply overseas, with China exporting 950,000 tons of alumina annually. China Bauxite Group, Weiqiao and other overseas bauxite resources development projects continued to advance. The chain reaction of trade frictions such as the United States, the European Union, Mexico and Vietnam is highlighted. The external development environment is becoming increasingly severe. The future export of aluminium materials will face a severe situation.

In 2019, the environment at home and abroad is becoming more and more complex, the deep impact of trade friction is about to emerge, the downstream consumption situation is not optimistic, and the downward pressure of the aluminum industry is still large. Our department will continue to deepen the structural reform of the supply side, continue to unite with relevant parties to maintain a high-pressure situation of strictly controlling the new capacity of electrolytic aluminium, strictly implement the policy of replacing the capacity of electrolytic aluminium, study and establish a long-term mechanism of resolving excess capacity by means of market-oriented legalization, actively expand the application of aluminium, and guide the high-quality development of the aluminium industry.

According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the price trend of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in China continued to diverge in late February 2019. The details are as follows.

In late February, the price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) was 4568.2 yuan/ton, up 232.2 yuan/ton, or 5.4% over the previous period.

In late February, the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was 3886.7 yuan/ton, down 35.7 yuan/ton, or 0.9% from the previous period.

Around the Lantern Festival, snowfall prevailed in North China and rainy and snowy weather in South China. Low temperatures and downstream enterprises that resumed work in succession resulted in a short-term surge in demand for LNG. However, production of LNG factories and receiving stations decreased before and after the Lantern Festival, and inventories were low, and production was still recovering after the year, resulting in tight supply. Under the pull of supply and demand, LNG prices have risen in some areas.

However, at present, the continuous rise of LNG has caused acceptance pressure on the undertaker, the downstream conflicting sentiment is obvious, and high-price shipments gradually fade. However, the factory liquid level is very low, in the near future, it is expected that the market is still dominated by high-level consolidation. In the long run, imports are sufficient, domestic production is increasing, demand is limited after heating, and the market may fall again.

According to the monitoring of Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, on February 27, the national LNG ex-factory price index was 4451 yuan/ton, which was 381 yuan/ton higher than the status of 4070 yuan/ton on February 12, an increase of 9.4%. As of March 1, the latest trading day, the ex-factory price of LNG had fallen to 4313 yuan/ton, 138 yuan/ton lower than the price on February 27, a decrease of 3.1%.

As far as LPG is concerned, there is no obvious improvement in the overall market demand. The international crude oil market continues to rise under the favorable conditions, which gives LPG a certain price support, while adequate supply also restrains the upward price of LPG.

The rising price of lithium and cobalt has been declining since 2018. In 2018, however, new energy vehicles are growing against the trend. Whether the cobalt and lithium prices of the “rapid development” of new energy vehicles can be “two degrees” or not depends on the development trend of the downstream new energy vehicles besides the external factors.

The price of lithium carbonate, which has risen since 2015, has fallen steadily since 2018. According to business association data, on February 24, 2019, the comprehensive price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 73,000 yuan/ton, which was the same as the previous day’s data, down 5.19% from February 15. In terms of cobalt price, the price of cobalt trioxide has been rising steadily since 2016, and has exceeded 300,000 yuan per ton by the end of March 2017. Since 2018, MB UK Metals reported that cobalt prices have fallen steadily. Data show that on February 20, 2019, MB UK Metals reported cobalt prices of $22.5 per pound, down 8.35% from February 15.

Lithium and cobalt are important raw materials in new energy batteries, and they are at the top of the new energy industry chain. Lithium deposits are mainly distributed in South America, North America and Asia. According to data released by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2017, the global lithium resources are about 47 million tons and the proven reserves are about 14 million tons. Among the proven lithium reserves, Bolivia and Argentina rank first in lithium resources, while China ranks fourth. The distribution of cobalt in the world is uneven, and the supply of cobalt in Congo (Kinshasa), the main mineral area in the world, is mainly composed of Mines owned by large mining enterprises and surface hand mining. With the decline of cobalt price, global mining and surface manual mining profits have been compressed. According to Huatai Securities, on February 8, 2019, the gross profit margin of Congo Kingdom hand mining decreased from 320,000 yuan/ton in April 2018 to 140,000 yuan/ton.

Market analysts believe that the continued decline in lithium and cobalt prices is due to excess production capacity caused by previous excessive mining, resulting in a market of supply exceeding demand. At present, cobalt and lithium prices are still in the process of bottoming.

Once upon a time, lithium and cobalt prices went up all the way. From 2015 to 2018, due to the rapid growth of the scale of new energy vehicles, orders for power batteries increased dramatically, driving the price of lithium and cobalt soaring. The price index of lithium carbonate has been growing steadily since 2015, declining somewhat in 2017, then rising again, and the price of cobalt has also been outstanding in the period from 2015 to 2018. The continuous rise in raw material prices has led to increasing investment in new energy minerals and rapid increase in production capacity. Overcapacity has kept lithium and cobalt prices under pressure since the beginning of 2018.

Unlike the price of lithium and cobalt under pressure, the production and sales of new energy automobiles are still growing rapidly in 2018. According to the data released by the China Automobile Industry Association on January 14 this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2018 were 1.27 million and 1.256 million respectively, up 59.9% and 61.7% respectively from the same period last year. Among them, 986,000 pure electric vehicles and 984,000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold, up 47.9% and 50.8% respectively from the same period last year; 283,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles and 271,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles were produced and sold, up 122% and 118% respectively from the same period last year; and 1527 fuel cell vehicles were produced and sold. Globally, according to BNEF forecasts, global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 11 million by 2025, with a penetration rate of 11%. Luke Kissam, chief executive of Albemarle, a lithium producer that accounts for one-third of the world’s total production, told analysts in a recent conference call that as new capacity increases, large producers such as Albemarle, SQM and Tianqi will continue to dominate the likely oversupply market in 2019. With the increasing demand for lithium for new technologies, the market will continue to be tight in the next few years.

Whether the price of lithium and cobalt can rise rapidly again depends on the expectation of the demand for new energy vehicles in the future. According to Fortune Securities estimates, in the long run, new energy vehicles will drive demand for millions of tons of lithium carbonate and hundreds of thousands of tons of cobalt by 2030. If the new energy industry continues to grow in the future, lithium and cobalt prices are expected to return to a reasonable range.

In the short run, the lower profits of lithium and cobalt in the upstream lead to accelerated liquidation of some enterprises, and the industry will shift from excessive supply to balanced supply and demand. Huatai Securities believes that the lithium price in February 2019 has approached the industry cost, and the head enterprises still have the advantage of mastering high-quality lithium resources because of their large-scale operation. Under the neutral assumption, the domestic supply and demand pattern of cobalt in 2019-2021 will change from balance to surplus, and the price will face further downward pressure. It is expected that the excess value of the cobalt industry will reach a stage high in this year and next two years.

According to S&P Global Prussian News, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) recently released data that predicted that coal production in the United States will reach 722 million tons in 2019, a decline of 4.3% from 2018; coal production in the United States will fall to 682 million tons by 2020, a drop of 5.6% from 2019. This forecast means that U.S. coal production is likely to reach its lowest level in nearly 40 years in two years.

Compared with January, EIA lowered its coal production forecast by 7.5 million tons this year, but increased its output forecast by more than 2 million tons in 2020. In terms of exports, the export volume is expected to be 101 million tons in 2019, down 13.3% from last year, while the export volume is expected to continue to decline to 93 million tons in 2020.

According to EIA’s forecast, coal consumption for power generation in the United States is estimated to be 583 million tons in 2019 and 547 million tons in 2020, down by 8.9% and 6.3% respectively. Meanwhile, the total coal consumption in the United States is expected to be 636 million tons this year and to drop to 599 million tons in 2020.

At the same time, EIA data show that in 2018, the proportion of thermal power in U.S. power generation will be 27.7%, while in 2019 and 2020, the proportion of thermal power will be reduced to 26% and 24%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 25.9% and 23.7%.

Although coal-fired power generation is expected to decline gradually, EIA forecasts that natural gas power generation will rise. EIA predicts that natural gas will account for 36% of electricity generation in 2019, up from 35.8% in January and 37% in 2020.

US President Trump’s claim that a trade agreement with China was “very, very close” has boosted the market. But data on China’s imports of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and coal show that once trade flows are cut off, it will be difficult to recover.

Data released by China Customs on Monday showed that China imported zero crude oil from the United States in January for the second consecutive month. China imported 245,616 barrels of crude oil per day from the United States in 2018, an increase of 25% over the previous year.

Crude oil was originally one of the commodities that could effectively reduce China’s trade surplus with the United States, but the emergence of Trump trade tariffs led to the strangulation of crude oil trade between China and the United States, although crude oil was not affected by Beijing’s retaliatory measures.

Despite Trump’s conciliatory remarks and the extension of negotiations between senior Chinese and American officials, there are few signs that trade activity is resuming.

Refinitiv’s ship tracking and port data show that no U.S. crude oil is expected to arrive in China in February and March. Data show that a tanker carrying nearly 2 million barrels will arrive in mid-April.

Given that the United States sails to China in the Gulf of Mexico for six to eight weeks, a significant increase in crude oil imports from the United States will occur as early as May or June.

LNG and coal trade have almost disappeared.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a similar situation. According to Lufford data, only one shipment was unloaded in January and no scheduled arrivals were made in the coming months.

Seven shipments were unloaded in January 2018, and a total of 33 shipments of LNG with a total of 2.3 million tons were imported in the whole year of 2018.

Coal is another more successful American energy export product hit by the trade war. Refinitiv data show that no U.S. coal was unloaded in January.

Data show that there is only one unloading so far in February, and another is expected before the end of the month. There are two plans for March.

In 2018, China imported 3.6 million tons of U.S. coal, the largest in April, with seven batches of coal coming ashore.

If a proper agreement is reached between China and the United States, the momentum of a sharp decline in China’s energy imports from the United States may be reversed since the intensification of the trade dispute between China and the United States last year.

But considering that it takes time to re-establish trade relations, order and transport, it may actually take longer than Lamp thought it would be.

Given China’s apparent and growing demand for crude oil, liquefied natural gas and even coal, especially high-quality coking coal for steelmaking, energy procurement may be the best way for China to increase imports of American products.

But Beijing has shown that China can quickly and easily stop buying American energy products.

U.S. supply accounts for a small proportion of China’s total imports, and Beijing has no difficulty in procuring alternative goods.

The United States accounted for only 2.7% of China’s crude oil imports in 2018. LNG imports from the United States accounted for about 4.3% of the total and coal imports from the United States accounted for about 1.3%.

But as China is the world’s largest importer of crude oil and coal and the second largest importer of liquefied natural gas, a small increase in the share purchased from the United States will soon bring a large US dollar revenue to the United States.

Deloitte has released its 11th annual mining report Trend Tracking. The report reveals several major trends facing mining companies. As the industry enters a new stage of development, mining companies need to consider more and more issues in formulating corporate strategies, including stakeholder participation, talent, regional risks and shortage of imported commodities, the report said.

This year, key areas of mining concern include the use of analytical tools to control risks and optimize supply chains; in addition to meeting compliance requirements, it will also have a positive impact on industrial clusters and the whole society; change public perception of the mining industry, and attract and retain diversified labor force.

Phil Hopwood, Deloitte Global Partner in Mining and Metals, said: “The mining industry is expected to see the strongest growth in a decade, but the market environment today is completely different from what it used to be. Subversion and volatility have become the norm, and rapid changes have challenged the adaptability of the industry as a whole. In this new world order, if mining companies are only satisfied with the current value created for industrial clusters, they will not be able to obtain the support of talent, investment or industrial clusters. Mining companies need to take a further stand and develop differentiated business models to create long-term value.

Xu Bin, Deloitte China Mining Director Partner, stressed: “Digital supply network construction is just emerging in the mining industry. Mining enterprises are expected to achieve the interconnection of supply chains from mines to ports, break operational constraints, and fully understand the end-to-end situation of the supply chain, so as to improve asset utilization, operational efficiency and productivity, and ultimately achieve cost savings.

In the past, when mining companies formulated strategic plans, the guiding principle was usually to achieve the highest output at the lowest possible cost. In this way, in the expectation of rising commodity prices, mining companies will continue to expand the size of mines to achieve higher returns. Although the bubble has long been broken, many mineral company still need to work hard to solve the remaining problems caused by this strategy.

Hopwood believes that mining companies need to broaden their strategic horizons. Effective strategic planning should not only focus on reducing production costs, but also consider the role of individual assets in the investment portfolio, value creation path, risk and income balance, and how companies stand out in the eyes of stakeholders. These important choices will ultimately help mining companies formulate investment allocation strategies, establish partnerships, and identify capacity development goals.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of February 22, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2322 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market continued to rise.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market continued the early part of the upward trend, the overall performance is good. Port spot traders rarely talk, forward paper sales are more active, intra-day futures shocks rise, driving the port to a small boost, but short-term high Treasury pressure still exists. In the Mainland market, the market climate is still acceptable, and some of them continue to rise. With the current partial production restriction and spring inspection boosting, the short-term market is expected to be affected by the supply side or strong performance; however, in the context of sustained tightening capacity, the prolonged export cycle of goods in the production area needs to be vigilant against local suppression; and close attention should be paid to recent equipment maintenance and inventory digestion in the port market.

Industry Chain: Formaldehyde: Linyi Formaldehyde Factory has returned to the market one after another, combined with the recent increase in raw material methanol finishing, to provide a certain cost support for the formaldehyde market. Zibo and its surrounding prices are around 1150-1200 yuan/ton; Linyi is around 1080-1110 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is stable and soft. North China is stable, and the stock pressure of enterprises is not high, so the offer is firm. Henan and East China have a positive intention to ship goods, but some of them have only slightly declined. The downstream demand is not good, the overall buying intention is weak and needs to be restored. In addition, the export negotiations are weak and the support for the domestic market is limited. Dimethyl ether: With the good support of downstream replenishment, the overall domestic dimethyl ether Market shipment situation has improved significantly in recent days and tentatively narrow upward, but in the short term, Xinxiangxin Lianheng increment and Yuhuang start construction expectations are expected to have little upward space.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Perspective: On the positive side, demand: At present, the new downstream replenishment support, the shopping atmosphere is still acceptable, the overall performance of the Mainland is good; Domestic devices: Mainland based on spring inspection and other factors, and the impact of environmental protection policies, maintenance enterprises continue to increase, late partial supply or contraction; Futures: futures market shocks, driving the spot market move. On the negative side, inventory: in the continuous replenishment of port imports, high inventory is difficult to digest in the short term, and the storage pressure is high; upstream: at present, some domestic gas projects are reworked and local supply is relatively abundant; international installations: Kaltim methanol plant in Indonesia, ZPC methanol plant in Iran and Malaysia are restarted and restored, so we need to pay more attention to the change of supply side. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that the short-term domestic methanol market will rise slightly.

China and Saudi Arabia (hereinafter referred to as Saudi Arabia) have made new breakthroughs in oil project cooperation.

On February 22, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman concluded his two-day visit to China. During their visit to China, China and Saudi Arabia signed two rounds of memorandums of understanding on key projects of capacity and investment cooperation. Among them, the largest amount of project contracted by the two sides “Flowers” falls in Liaoning Province in Northeast China.

The project was signed by Saudi Arabian Oil Company (hereinafter referred to as Saudi Arabian Oil Company), China Weapons Industry Group Limited (hereinafter referred to as Chinese Weapons) and Panjin Xin Honest Industry Group (hereinafter referred to as Panjin Industry). The three parties intend to invest more than 69.5 billion yuan (about $10.9 billion) to establish Huajin Ami Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Huajin Ami) in Panjin City, Liaoning Province. 。

According to the official website of Saudi Arabia and the United States, Huajin and Ami will become the largest Sino-Saudi joint venture in history, with commercial operation expected in 2024.

After the completion of the project, Chinese weapons will hold 36% of Huajin Amy, 35% of Saudi Amy and 29% of Panjin Industries.

Huajin Ami project covers an area of 598 hectares. It plans to build an annual refining capacity of 15 million tons (300,000 barrels per day), ethylene production capacity of 1.5 million tons, and PX production capacity of 1.3 million tons, with the goal of becoming a world-class integrated refining and chemical base.

Amy Nasser, Saudi Arabia’s CEO, said the project clearly illustrated the company’s strategy: China and Saudi Arabia can make significant investments in China in order to promote China’s economic growth and development from the previous relationship between buyers and sellers in the petrochemical field.

Seventy percent of the crude oil will come from Saudi Arabia and the United States in the Huajin A-U.S. joint venture project.

According to Liaoning Daily, the Sino-Saudi joint refining project was approved by the Liaoning Provincial Government in July 2015 and is expected to add 100 billion yuan of sales revenue, 11 billion yuan of profits and 20 billion yuan of tax revenue to the northeast region every year.

Saudi Arabia and the United States cooperate with Liaoning Province in more than refining projects. Nasser said that by the end of 2019, Saudi Arabia Amy, Northern Huajin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. and Liaoning Communications Construction Investment Group will form a tripartite marketing joint venture to jointly develop retail gas station projects in China.

The Huajin Ami project will also greatly enhance the refining and petrochemical production capacity of Chinese weapons.

China Weapons was founded on July 1, 1999, and was reorganized on the basis of the former China Weapons Industry Corporation. In 2018, China’s main revenue in military industry and other fields reached 450 billion yuan, ranking 140th among Fortune magazine’s top 500 enterprises in the world.

At the beginning of 2000, Chinese weapons began to enter the petroleum industry. At present, petroleum business has covered oil and gas exploration and development, crude oil and product oil trade, oil and gas storage and transportation, petroleum refining and liquefied natural gas (LNG), forming a relatively complete industrial chain.

By the end of 2017, China’s weapons had oil and gas exploration blocks in six countries, with geological reserves exceeding 1 billion tons, of which the annual trade volume of crude oil and refined oil reached tens of millions tons. At present, the annual refining capacity of Chinese weapons in Liaoning Province has reached 8 million tons.

In May 2017, China’s weapons signed the Joint Development Agreement with Saudi Arabia, Amy and Panjin Industries to jointly develop the “Fine Chemical and Raw Materials Engineering of Chinese Weapons” project and held a foundation-laying ceremony.

Panjin Industry is a wholly state-owned company funded by the State-owned Asset Management Office of Panjin Liaobin Coastal Economic Zone. It was founded on November 1, 2010 with a registered capital of about 940 million yuan.

China-Saudi Arabia Investment Cooperation Forum was held in Beijing on the day of the signing of the Huajin Ami Project. At the forum, China and Saudi Arabia also signed 35 agreements and memorandums of understanding. According to the rough statistics of interface news, the total amount of the contract is more than $28 billion, involving petrochemical, manufacturing, new energy, communications and other industries. Among them, the investment amount of petrochemical industry is over 17 billion US dollars, accounting for about 60% of the total amount.

Saudi Arabia cut its crude oil exports in December under the OPEC agreement, falling from a two-year high in the previous month, according to Prussian Energy Information.

As the world’s largest exporter of crude oil, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in December were 76.87 million barrels per day, down 548,000 barrels per day from November, when shipments reached their highest level since November 2016, just before the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began implementing the production reduction agreement in January 2017.

JODI data show that refinery output fell to 2.684 million barrels per day in December, a decrease of 152,000 barrels per day compared with November, while direct combustion of electricity-generating crude oil increased to 364,000 barrels per day, an increase of 36,000 barrels per day.

According to JODI data, crude oil inventories fell to 205.376 million barrels, down 16% year-on-year.

Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC earlier this month that its crude oil production fell to 10.243 million barrels a day in January as a result of a sharp reduction in production before the new reduction agreement came into force on January 1.

Saudi energy minister Khalid Fallich told the Financial Times last week that production in March would fall to 9.8 million barrels a day, below the 10.311 million barrels a day quota set in its latest agreement. He added that exports would fall to about 6.9 million barrels a day.

Reporters recently learned from the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources that the province has vigorously implemented geological prospecting operations in recent years. Last year, 2.437 billion tons of coal resources were newly discovered, far exceeding the same period of coal production.

Shanxi is known as “Coal Sea”. According to estimates, the coal-bearing area of Shanxi Province is 57,000 square kilometers, accounting for 36.3% of its territorial area. By the end of 2014, Shanxi has accumulated 29.43 billion tons of proven coal reserves and 268.967 billion tons of retained resources, accounting for 17.56% of the country’s total reserves, ranking third in the country.

Shanxi Province has vigorously implemented geological prospecting operations in recent years. Last year, provincial finance invested 357 million yuan, arranged 83 geological prospecting projects, checked and accepted 60 previous projects, and added a number of important mineral resources reserves, including 2.437 billion tons of coal resources and 82 million tons of bauxite.

With the increasing reserves of coal resources, Shanxi’s annual coal output has stabilized in recent years: in 2016, Shanxi’s coal output was about 832 million tons; in 2017, Shanxi’s coal output was about 875 million tons; according to the latest data released by Shanxi Statistical Bureau, Shanxi’s coal output was about 893 million tons in 2018.

It is reported that Shanxi has been deepening the structural reform of coal supply side in recent years. Over the past three years, it has withdrawn 88.41 million tons of excess capacity of coal. It is expected that Shanxi will withdraw more than 100 million tons of excess capacity of coal in an orderly manner by 2020, and the output of raw coal in the whole province will stabilize at about 1 billion tons.